2012 Draft Day Thread + Cubs Picks Discussion

[Vinestal]

For those following along at home:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

#Cubs can go to $4,156,395 for Albert Almora w/o relinquishing a pick. #mlbdraft

But would you really want them to? Doesn't seem like that would be nearly necessary.

 

Boras probably thinks it's necessary.

I hope they sign Underwood and just offer what's left, I can't see him wanting to go to college. Just my opinion though.

[Guest]

For those following along at home:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisBA

#Cubs can go to $4,156,395 for Albert Almora w/o relinquishing a pick. #mlbdraft

But would you really want them to? Doesn't seem like that would be nearly necessary.

 

Boras probably thinks it's necessary.

I hope they sign Underwood and just offer what's left, I can't see him wanting to go to college. Just my opinion though.

 

Boras is going to push for over slot up to the 5% penalty but I agree that in the end, he'll agree to slot or slightly over if that's all the Cubs have.

[Vinestal]

Boras is going to push for over slot up to the 5% penalty but I agree that in the end, he'll agree to slot or slightly over if that's all the Cubs have.

 

Yeah that's kind of why I'd like to see Underwood signed first, I hope they get it done. It's not the end of the world if they don't but Underwood looks like one of the better arms in our draft.

[Guest]

Exactly 2 weeks to the signing deadline.

[Theo]

No need for the Cubs to cave, they hold all the cards.

[davell]

McNeill signed for 425000, tad under slot of 471900.

[Guest]

McNeill signed for 425000, tad under slot of 471900.

 

Up-to-date with only Almora and Underwood unsigned from the top 10 rounds:

 

2012 Bonus Pool: $7,933,900

2012 Bonus Pool Including 5% Overage: $8,330,595

2012 Bonus Pool Spending: $3,357,700

2012 Bonus Pool +/-: $556,600 Under Budget

2012 Bonus Pool +/- Including 5% Overage: $752,315 Under Budget

[craig]

$960 in discretionary.

 

Assuming they sign Almora/Underwood, which presumably will absorb some or all of the discretionary.

 

But that's quite a bit extra to make sure that Boras and Almora can feed their families.

[craig]

The two board favorites:

 

Correa .167, .481 OPS after 9 games. Apparently even rookie-leaguers throw with more speed and movement than Sveum, so that to date Correa's awesome power hasn't connected. 10K in 36 AB already.

 

Buxton has one single in his first 5 games, for a .289 OPS.

[Named After Maddux]

The two board favorites:

 

Correa .167, .481 OPS after 9 games. Apparently even rookie-leaguers throw with more speed and movement than Sveum, so that to date Correa's awesome power hasn't connected. 10K in 36 AB already. .

 

Right, but how's Tim Saunders doing?

All kidding aside, Correa is still 17, right?

[17 Seconds]

almora hasn't even put the ball in play yet

[davell]

Underwood is at Wrigley, taking pictures with his family and threw with Theo watching. No word on whether he's signed or not.

[Guest]

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs second-round draft pick Duane Underwood throwing in Wrigley bullpen this morning.

 

@CarrieMuskat RHP Duane Underwood, #Cubs 2nd round pick, throwing at Wrigley Field Sunday morning.

 

@CarrieMuskat Underwood had not yet signed (as far as we've been told) but that may have changed. He's posing for photos on field with family. #Cubs

[Tryptamine]

@BruceMiles2112 #Cubs second-round draft pick Duane Underwood throwing in Wrigley bullpen this morning.

 

@CarrieMuskat RHP Duane Underwood, #Cubs 2nd round pick, throwing at Wrigley Field Sunday morning.

 

@CarrieMuskat Underwood had not yet signed (as far as we've been told) but that may have changed. He's posing for photos on field with family. #Cubs

 

This would be big; probably the biggest ceiling of any of the guys outside of Almora.

[javy knows my name]

YESSSS

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ABTY over at PSD has Underwood having agreed to terms "just north of slot" pending a physical.

 

There's really nothing left for Almora to negotiate for, right? I think that's everybody we really care about (and please don't tell say Wiseman)?

[davell]

Hickman would be a really, really nice get for us. I thought we were getting Tomscha, but it appears that's not the case, based on a few tweets. Bonnell probably becomes my second guy, after Hickman, if we have any money left over to make runs at a few guys.

[Guest]

I wouldn't mind Crum but he seems pretty set on transferring to Oregon.

[davell]

I wouldn't mind Crum but he seems pretty set on transferring to Oregon.

Same here, but because he seems intent on going to Oregon, I didn't list him or a few others.

[Guest]

ABTY over at PSD has Underwood having agreed to terms "just north of slot" pending a physical.

 

There's really nothing left for Almora to negotiate for, right? I think that's everybody we really care about (and please don't tell say Wiseman)?

 

Well, if Underwood gets, say, $200,000 over slot, that leaves a bit over $500,000 over for Almora and someone else - maybe a couple $200,000 bonuses for guys in rounds 11-40? Say a Hickman and Drossner, Bonnell or Pannone?

[craig]

I'm pretty much interested in any 11-40's who pitch or might convert to pitching. The emergence of big velocity of an excellent slider is hard to predict, so any of the Bonnell/Pannone/Hickman types have a shot. And Amlung is good, I very much want to see us get him sooner or later.

 

I'm not very interested in any of the remaining 11-40's as position players, outside of Wiseman who isn't really a factor anyway.

 

You never know with pitchers when they'll explode, like Cashner did.

[A New Era]

It's always nice to get the first five'ish rounds signed. Just because they have more apparent upside. Underwood, Almora, and Johnson I think will be the 3 guys I'll be keeping an eye on the most.

[craig]

I don't really get why the board seems to like Underwood way more than Blackburn. May prove true in the long run. But I really want to hope McLeod isn't so dumb that he's letting superior prospect Underwood go and taking Blackburn instead, when Underwood is signable at or below the price Blackburn signed for.

 

I think maybe underwood is either a little overrated or Blackburn a bit underrated. Seems to me that the reports on Underwood were that he has shown little indication of a breaking ball, although his change is promising. And that he mostly pitched in the high 80's with some low 90's this spring, although he'd touched high 90's in some showcases last summer/fall.

 

Projectible for sure, so maybe 88-89 is normal now at 17, and when he's 24 he'll be throwing 93-97 consistently.

 

But I'm a little cautious on showcase times. A guy gets all ready for a showcase, and is well rested and everything, and lets ir rip. When it's July, and he's throwing in front of a Beloit or Daytona crowd, and he's been pitching every fifth day for months, his arm probably isn't as rested and lively, and the same guy who touched 97 for a showcase probably isn't anywhere near that on a routine basis.

 

Don't get me wrong, a top-70 pick better have a ton of potential, and both of these kids do. But I'm guessing that Underwood's spot in the draft was where he belonged, and he'd fit behind both Johnson and Blackburn on my list.

[craig]

ABTY reposted and said the Underwood deal wasn't as "arranged" as he'd first posted. Backed off and said more "80%", details and of course physical to be done. Sounds like it's in process, though.

[craig]

.

Well, if Underwood gets, say, $200,000 over slot, that leaves a bit over $500,000 over for Almora and someone else - maybe a couple $200,000 bonuses for guys in rounds 11-40? Say a Hickman and Drossner, Bonnell or Pannone?

 

I don't think your numbers are right. I think we've got around $960 in discretionary (assuming Underwood and Almora sign so that we are allowed the overage on their slot values.) So even if Underwood comes in at $200 over (he won't come that far over), we'd still have at least $760 of discretionary money to split between Almora and the 11-40's.

 

Obviously if we don't sign Almora, we can't get the 5% overage on his $3.25 million slot so the discretionary money would drop by over $150K.