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Guest
Guests
Posted

How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I didn't expect the Cubs to go to the playoffs or even finish with a record near .500,

but Jesus Christ, this team can't even do a [expletive] firesale right.

 

Who are we blaming here? The Cubs don't have a lot of control over this Dempster thing, you know that, right? Also, they can't make Garza magically not be hurt, or not have a kid.

 

I'm not blaming anyone. I'm just upset at how this deadline, one of the few aspects of this season that held a sense of promise, seems to be bottoming out. Just generalized frustration with the state of the organization.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
George ofman ‏@georgeofman

Stuff is very fluid. Minute by minute. Braves deal not completely dead.

 

Oh shut up, George.

Guest
Guests
Posted
Because this thread is mostly speculation, maybe Dempster wanted the team(s) to work out some extension for him and they all refused.
Guest
Guests
Posted
I didn't expect the Cubs to go to the playoffs or even finish with a record near .500,

but Jesus Christ, this team can't even do a [expletive] firesale right.

 

Who are we blaming here? The Cubs don't have a lot of control over this Dempster thing, you know that, right? Also, they can't make Garza magically not be hurt, or not have a kid.

 

I'm not blaming anyone. I'm just upset at how this deadline, one of the few aspects of this season that held a sense of promise, seems to be bottoming out. Just generalized frustration with the state of the organization.

 

A little less than 48 hrs ago it seemed like it was going [expletive] amazingly awesomely. This sucks so bad.

Posted
George ofman ‏@georgeofman

Stuff is very fluid. Minute by minute. Braves deal not completely dead.

 

Oh shut up, George.

 

Hey, don't pick on George, he's awesome!

Skip Perry...uh, Skip Caray, whose pappy was the legendary Harry, and whose son is Skip - died in his sleep today...uh, make that his son Chip..
Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

 

I realize that. To clarify, I'm wondering how taking the QO, an average year of performance, and free agency in 2013 would compare to the deal he'd get if he had free agency in 2012 with no QO.

Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

 

I realize that. To clarify, I'm wondering how taking the QO, an average year of performance, and free agency in 2013 would compare to the deal he'd get if he had free agency in 2012 with no QO.

Any team would be foolish not to give him an offer, so I don't think that factors into the equation.
Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

 

I realize that. To clarify, I'm wondering how taking the QO, an average year of performance, and free agency in 2013 would compare to the deal he'd get if he had free agency in 2012 with no QO.

Any team would be foolish not to give him an offer, so I don't think that factors into the equation.

 

Any team would be foolish not to surrender a 1st round draft slot for soon to be 36 year old Ryan Dempster?

Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

 

I realize that. To clarify, I'm wondering how taking the QO, an average year of performance, and free agency in 2013 would compare to the deal he'd get if he had free agency in 2012 with no QO.

 

Let's put it this way. AFAIK, the Cubs can make that qualifying offer every offseason if they want. I'm not sure(someone please clarify if you know), but a quick search doesn't turn anything up, and intuitively I don't know why they'd limit the ability to pay players an average of the top salaries. So with that assumption....

 

Dempster wants to be paid like someone who is worth the QO, except over several guaranteed years. As long as he's worth that QO, the Cubs can keep giving it to him. There's no urgency not to, as they aren't interested in extending Dempster at his age, and other teams aren't interested in forfeiting a huge chunk of their draft pool for Dempster(PLUS a big FA deal) at his age. But, as soon as he's not worth that, the Cubs will just let him go, and he'll be left to take a lesser deal that a team no longer hindered by the QO will offer. That could be three years from now, it could be next fall. So the question for Dempster is this. Is it worth it for me to pick my own destination for two months, and then bank on me sustaining my performance for the duration of what my next FA contract would be, or would I rather deal with going somewhere less desirable for a couple months, and be unrestrained to sign a guaranteed deal at a similar dollar amount for that length? If that's me, I'd deal with playing wherever the rest of this year for the chance to get that last FA contract, but I don't have special needs children and haven't made almost 62 million dollars in my career.

Posted

Any team would be foolish not to surrender a 1st round draft slot for soon to be 36 year old Ryan Dempster?

 

Exactly! If the Cubs make a QO for Dempster, they've FUBARED his last big chance at Free Agency.

Guest
Guests
Posted
How well would the qualifying offer tactic really work, though?

 

 

For sure, he's far more likely to get a "big" multi-year deal this year. How big, though? And what kind of a deal would he get if he played next year for $12M (or whatever the number is) and posted numbers that would reasonably be expected of him? Could he get a 2 year deal that, along with that $12M, would come pretty close to, say, a 3 year deal that he would get now?

 

Is the difference worth calling the Cubs' bluff?

 

If the Cubs make a qualifying offer, that means that any team that signs Dempster forfeits their 1st round pick(and the slot money that goes with it). There might be a team that is willing to give Dempster the last big FA deal he wants in addition to that, but I really doubt teams will be that anxious to do so with Dempster. We can't know for sure how it will play out on both sides(player and team), but it's exceedingly likely that the qualifying offer takes a huge chunk out of Dempster's value in free agency.

 

I realize that. To clarify, I'm wondering how taking the QO, an average year of performance, and free agency in 2013 would compare to the deal he'd get if he had free agency in 2012 with no QO.

Any team would be foolish not to give him an offer, so I don't think that factors into the equation.

 

Any team would be foolish not to surrender a 1st round draft slot for soon to be 36 year old Ryan Dempster?

Any team that he was playing for at the end of 2012. Not the team looking to sign him.

Posted

Serious question.

 

If the Cubs fail to move neither Dempster nor Garza, and Dempster accepts the qualifying offer.....will this be a negative on the front office? I understand that this is all Dempster's fault if he doesn't accept the Braves deal, but would you guys look at this as a failure of the front office to:

 

a) communicate effectively with Dempster, Braves, whoever

b) take the Dodgers package just to ensure Dempster wasn't back on the roster eating 12.5Mil salary

c) be more proactive in trading Dempster and Garza sooner

d) be more proactive in moving Garza BEFORE moving Dempster

 

I don't think this is a strike against the front office, but just wondering how people will feel if Garza and Dempster are Cubs next year but NEITHER is signed long-term.

Posted
Serious question.

 

If the Cubs fail to move neither Dempster nor Garza, and Dempster accepts the qualifying offer.....will this be a negative on the front office? I understand that this is all Dempster's fault if he doesn't accept the Braves deal, but would you guys look at this as a failure of the front office to:

 

a) communicate effectively with Dempster, Braves, whoever

b) take the Dodgers package just to ensure Dempster wasn't back on the roster eating 12.5Mil salary

c) be more proactive in trading Dempster and Garza sooner

d) be more proactive in moving Garza BEFORE moving Dempster

 

I don't think this is a strike against the front office, but just wondering how people will feel if Garza and Dempster are Cubs next year but NEITHER is signed long-term.

 

I would be more disappointed if either was traded for lesser value. But yeah, it would be a knock against them and their plan.

Guest
Guests
Posted

Any team that he was playing for at the end of 2012. Not the team looking to sign him.

 

I'm pretty sure they don't have the right to make that offer. That's one of the reason rentals weren't supposed to be as valuable this year.

Guest
Guests
Posted
Serious question.

 

If the Cubs fail to move neither Dempster nor Garza, and Dempster accepts the qualifying offer.....will this be a negative on the front office? I understand that this is all Dempster's fault if he doesn't accept the Braves deal, but would you guys look at this as a failure of the front office to:

 

a) communicate effectively with Dempster, Braves, whoever

b) take the Dodgers package just to ensure Dempster wasn't back on the roster eating 12.5Mil salary

c) be more proactive in trading Dempster and Garza sooner

d) be more proactive in moving Garza BEFORE moving Dempster

 

I don't think this is a strike against the front office, but just wondering how people will feel if Garza and Dempster are Cubs next year but NEITHER is signed long-term.

I don't think it will be a negative on the FO if Dempster originally told them he would go to ATL. The Cubs don't really have much control expect to present him the offer.

 

I think the real problem was the leak in Atlanta and most every overreaction is based on the initial leak.

Posted
It appears as if Dempster has screwed with our FO. Kind of hard to think they'd agree to a deal with Atlanta, without an indication Dempster would go there. So he decided evidently to force(try anyway) to LA. So, you tell him you'll hit him with the qualifier, then pitch him in middle relief next year. Dick move? Absolutely. But so is telling your boss you're willing to relocate somewhere, then pukl the plug at the last minute. My guess is by doing that to him, it'd cost him 15-20 mill. If he's a complete FA this offseason, I could see him getting a 3/39ish type deal, since prices appear heading upward again. Put him in middle relief, I doubt he'd get more than a one year, prove you can still start contract for the following one.
Guest
Guests
Posted

 

Let's put it this way. AFAIK, the Cubs can make that qualifying offer every offseason if they want. I'm not sure(someone please clarify if you know), but a quick search doesn't turn anything up, and intuitively I don't know why they'd limit the ability to pay players an average of the top salaries. So with that assumption....

 

Dempster wants to be paid like someone who is worth the QO, except over several guaranteed years. As long as he's worth that QO, the Cubs can keep giving it to him. There's no urgency not to, as they aren't interested in extending Dempster at his age, and other teams aren't interested in forfeiting a huge chunk of their draft pool for Dempster(PLUS a big FA deal) at his age. But, as soon as he's not worth that, the Cubs will just let him go, and he'll be left to take a lesser deal that a team no longer hindered by the QO will offer. That could be three years from now, it could be next fall. So the question for Dempster is this. Is it worth it for me to pick my own destination for two months, and then bank on me sustaining my performance for the duration of what my next FA contract would be, or would I rather deal with going somewhere less desirable for a couple months, and be unrestrained to sign a guaranteed deal at a similar dollar amount for that length? If that's me, I'd deal with playing wherever the rest of this year for the chance to get that last FA contract, but I don't have special needs children and haven't made almost 62 million dollars in my career.

 

Fair enough, but would anyone pay him the QO amount (or close to it) over several guaranteed years, even coming off this season?

 

I'm guess I'm just trying to gauge how much he'd actually get if he were a free agent with no restrictions this offseason...

Posted

Fair enough, but would anyone pay him the QO amount (or close to it) over several guaranteed years, even coming off this season?

 

I'm guess I'm just trying to gauge how much he'd actually get if he were a free agent with no restrictions this offseason...

 

I would guess he'd be looking for 3/30, or if he really holds up all season, 3/36+.

Posted
It appears as if Dempster has screwed with our FO. Kind of hard to think they'd agree to a deal with Atlanta, without an indication Dempster would go there. So he decided evidently to force(try anyway) to LA. So, you tell him you'll hit him with the qualifier, then pitch him in middle relief next year. Dick move? Absolutely. But so is telling your boss you're willing to relocate somewhere, then pukl the plug at the last minute. My guess is by doing that to him, it'd cost him 15-20 mill. If he's a complete FA this offseason, I could see him getting a 3/39ish type deal, since prices appear heading upward again. Put him in middle relief, I doubt he'd get more than a one year, prove you can still start contract for the following one.

 

You can't put him in the bullpen. It serves no purpose and doesn't help the team.

Posted
I defended Dumpster at first not knowing what he said a few weeks/months ago. What a piece of trash. If he only wanted to go to LA then say so to the Cubs and not the entire world before any trade happens. If he doesn't want to be traded then let the Cubs know. Cubs fans, please boo him for me next time he pitches at Wrigley.
Guest
Guests
Posted
It appears as if Dempster has screwed with our FO. Kind of hard to think they'd agree to a deal with Atlanta, without an indication Dempster would go there. So he decided evidently to force(try anyway) to LA. So, you tell him you'll hit him with the qualifier, then pitch him in middle relief next year. Dick move? Absolutely. But so is telling your boss you're willing to relocate somewhere, then pukl the plug at the last minute. My guess is by doing that to him, it'd cost him 15-20 mill. If he's a complete FA this offseason, I could see him getting a 3/39ish type deal, since prices appear heading upward again. Put him in middle relief, I doubt he'd get more than a one year, prove you can still start contract for the following one.

 

You can't put him in the bullpen. It serves no purpose and doesn't help the team.

 

I think what he was getting at is it completely fucks with his value as a FA after 2013. It obviously doesn't help the team beyond the leverage they might gain right now by threatening to do that (if they chose to do that).

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