POSIT: epstein has the best executive position in sports

[Guest]

ZiPS pegs the difference between LaHair/Rizzo + Stewart and Pena + Ramirez at 1-1.5 WAR. While forecasting Cespedes is even more imprecise than that task normally is, ZiPS sees DeJesus and Cespedes as near equals. They needed stars, and more than one of them, to be competitive this year. That would've taken hundreds of millions of dollars, or a huge player cost(although I can't think of a player of that quality that was traded this offseason, maybe Pineda or Gio?).

[KingCubsFan]

So basically your argument is that Theo made a terrible mistake by not blowing $300-400 million on the free agent market in an attempt to recreate the 2006 Cardinals glory with an 83-win World Series winner, because devoting that much money and locking down several positions long-term would have had absolutely zero effect on the franchise's success in the coming years?

 

 

Handing jobs to bad player | an entire universe | Spending hundreds of millions on free agents.

 

They could have attempted to put a credible team on the field without going the Pujols route.

 

Do everything you did this offseason, but keep Ramirez and Pena, sign Cespedes instead of DeJesus and spend some money on one more decent relief pitcher to replace Marshall. Go ahead and trade Byrd. That's probably a .500 team with some decent chances in the 5-playoff-team era, and you've committed less than $100 million long-term.

I guess that's reasonable. I don't think the team would have been very good, but that's obviously open to debate. Only problem is that Pena probably would have wanted a multiyear deal to stay, and then Rizzo is blocked.

 

I know people are depressed because it's near Opening Day and we'll likely suck, but by July/August, the Cubs could have three guys under 24 and under team control for a lot of years that will be hitting near the top/heart of the lineup for years to come, one of which plays SS. Not many teams can say that.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm disappointed that 2012 is being punted, but I can't look at the contracts given out to Pujols, Fieder, etc. and honestly say "Gee, I wish the Cubs had gotten in on that" (with the possible exception of Darvish). I'm on record as saying I wouldn't have signed Pujols/Fielder to the deals they got, not necessarily because of the money, but because I feel the simply won't be great for much longer.

 

Realistically, adding 1-2 of those guys wasn't going to turn the Cubs into a 95-100 win team in 2012. The instant gratification isn't there, but I can't find egregious fault with the direction this year has taken. If Theo wants to spend this year stockpiling assets and taking a more aggressive approach in the next couple offseasons (which I think is what will happen), I can live with that.

 

I definitely wouldn't call BS on the "parallel fronts" claim just because the year one offseason didn't play out that way. If we see a repeat next offseason, there will be more cause for concern.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ZiPS pegs the difference between LaHair/Rizzo + Stewart and Pena + Ramirez at 1-1.5 WAR. While forecasting Cespedes is even more imprecise than that task normally is, ZiPS sees DeJesus and Cespedes as near equals. They needed stars, and more than one of them, to be competitive this year. That would've taken hundreds of millions of dollars, or a huge player cost(although I can't think of a player of that quality that was traded this offseason, maybe Pineda or Gio?).

 

Haven't you argued before that ZIPS severely overrates LaHair?

 

I'd argue that the cumulative difference between those three players is closer to 4-7 wins. Throw in a bit more for the relief pitcher (the lack of a single reliable reliever to use in high-leverage situations is really going to hurt us this year, I think) and I think that takes this team to at least a little past .500. That's close enough to be taking your shot.

[Guest]

Well everyone overrates LaHair, but that's not really the point, Rizzo projects similarly anyway.

 

It's not indefensible to think that those three are that much better I guess, and I certainly wouldn't have had a problem with Cespedes. But personally, I don't think the difference is that significant, and even if it was, you're latching onto declining corner infielders on the hope that you can backdoor your way to the 2nd wild card at 84-85 wins(which likely will not do the trick). That's not parallel fronts either, and it's closer to Hendry-era strategy of hoping things break right to be decent at the expense of being good/great tomorrow.

[davell]

Aramis and Pena combined for 6.2 WAR last year. I doubt it's higher than that in 2012. I'm happy with LaHair, Stewart, and the 2 comp picks. I won't be surprised if we get to within a win or so from what Aramis and Pena do in 2012.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well everyone overrates LaHair, but that's not really the point, Rizzo projects similarly anyway.

 

It's not indefensible to think that those three are that much better I guess, and I certainly wouldn't have had a problem with Cespedes. But personally, I don't think the difference is that significant, and even if it was, you're latching onto declining corner infielders on the hope that you can backdoor your way to the 2nd wild card at 84-85 wins(which likely will not do the trick). That's not parallel fronts either, and it's closer to Hendry-era strategy of hoping things break right to be decent at the expense of being good/great tomorrow.

 

But how is it at the expense of tomorrow? In the scenario I listed, you can still acquire Rizzo, Concepcion, Torreyes, Wood, Volstad, etc.

[davell]

The comp picks are worth more to me than the possible small value a couple of older corner guys will bring. But I don't think those 2 would have gotten us over .500 either, without other more substantial moves.

[Guest]

Well everyone overrates LaHair, but that's not really the point, Rizzo projects similarly anyway.

 

It's not indefensible to think that those three are that much better I guess, and I certainly wouldn't have had a problem with Cespedes. But personally, I don't think the difference is that significant, and even if it was, you're latching onto declining corner infielders on the hope that you can backdoor your way to the 2nd wild card at 84-85 wins(which likely will not do the trick). That's not parallel fronts either, and it's closer to Hendry-era strategy of hoping things break right to be decent at the expense of being good/great tomorrow.

 

But how is it at the expense of tomorrow? In the scenario I listed, you can still acquire Rizzo, Concepcion, Torreyes, Wood, Volstad, etc.

 

Because you have to wait at least 1 year for Rizzo to get any MLB exposure and see if he's the answer(maybe more if Pena really wanted to play for a winner). Because Ramirez signed a 3 year deal that pays him 16 million when he's 36(plus a 4M buyout). Because neither of those guys are at all likely to be any better than they were last year, which locks you into decent-ish production or worse at both corner spots on a team that needs starpower more than filled gaps. And because that 18 million difference in salaries is now spoken for and can't be used to help make a future trade, extend Castro, put nice couches in the Dominican Academy, etc.

[davearm2]

But the plan isn't unfocused, and it's not like they're throwing away 2012 with no purpose or reason.

 

Jiminy Christmas.

 

Yes, we all know this. The point is they are throwing away 2012. The fact that there is a purpose is besides the point. It didn't need to be done, but it has been done.

Kyle is the one who is arguing that the organization is throwing away the year for no reason.

 

Because they didn't need to.

 

Things like the need to evaluate and maintaining financial flexibility are just cop-outs for them not trying this year. They could have built a tremendous organization over the next 3-5 years while still trying in 2012, but they chose not to, because they have a leash and a fan/media base that was begging them not to try.

Nothing Theo and co. are doing is predicated on some perceived long leash, and it sure as heck has nothing to do with what the fan/media base thinks. I mean seriously, stop with this nonsense.

 

They're building this organization the best way they know how to achieve sustained excellence and perennial contender-ship. Period. End of story.

 

You would have done it differently, and we all get that. But don't make up this crap about what their motivation is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Aramis and Pena combined for 6.2 WAR last year.

 

That's 6.5 wins better than our current corner combo.

[SouthSideRyan]

Aramis and Pena combined for 6.2 WAR last year.

 

That's 6.5 wins better than our current corner combo.

 

I'll take the under on that difference this year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

A decent Epstein interview:

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-news/Theo-Epstein-is-hungry-for-more?blockID=683188

[jersey cubs fan]

A decent Epstein interview:

 

http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-news/Theo-Epstein-is-hungry-for-more?blockID=683188

 

 

will be innovative like Groupon

 

That's a scarily disappointing thought.

[jersey cubs fan]

“The longer you’re in baseball,” Epstein said, “the longer you realize that all we’re trying to do here is shift the odds slightly in our favor. There are no great obvious competitive advantages anymore.

 

“If you have the best evaluators, the best systems, the best people, the best decision-making process, the best you can hope to do is shift your odds for any given transaction from maybe 50/50 to like 53/47.

 

“There’s not a lot of ground that you can seize against your opponent. So if you’re disorganized or if you’re doing things by happenstance or if you don’t have a sound process, and you sort of luck into a decision here and there and you can’t repeat it, you’re just losing ground.”

 

That's a fairly decent description of the Hendry regime.

[Backtobanks]

“The longer you’re in baseball,” Epstein said, “the longer you realize that all we’re trying to do here is shift the odds slightly in our favor. There are no great obvious competitive advantages anymore.

 

“If you have the best evaluators, the best systems, the best people, the best decision-making process, the best you can hope to do is shift your odds for any given transaction from maybe 50/50 to like 53/47.

 

“There’s not a lot of ground that you can seize against your opponent. So if you’re disorganized or if you’re doing things by happenstance or if you don’t have a sound process, and you sort of luck into a decision here and there and you can’t repeat it, you’re just losing ground.”

 

That's a fairly decent description of the Hendry regime.

 

Those quotes sounds like he's making excuses for the future if things don't go as well as planned. All the more reason he shouldn't have tanked 2012 and probably 2013. If you can't gain as much advantage as you used to, it doesn't bode well for a team that needs to gain 15-20 games to be a serious contender.

[KingCubsFan]

“The longer you’re in baseball,” Epstein said, “the longer you realize that all we’re trying to do here is shift the odds slightly in our favor. There are no great obvious competitive advantages anymore.

 

“If you have the best evaluators, the best systems, the best people, the best decision-making process, the best you can hope to do is shift your odds for any given transaction from maybe 50/50 to like 53/47.

 

“There’s not a lot of ground that you can seize against your opponent. So if you’re disorganized or if you’re doing things by happenstance or if you don’t have a sound process, and you sort of luck into a decision here and there and you can’t repeat it, you’re just losing ground.”

 

That's a fairly decent description of the Hendry regime.

 

Those quotes sounds like he's making excuses for the future if things don't go as well as planned. All the more reason he shouldn't have tanked 2012 and probably 2013. If you can't gain as much advantage as you used to, it doesn't bode well for a team that needs to gain 15-20 games to be a serious contender.

I think the real plan has become clear. He's going to use his past reputation and tank the next five years while collecting paychecks and playing Golden Tee in the new offices that he demanded to be built. He'll eventually get fired and leave the Cubs in terrible shape. I bet Crane Kenney is behind this plan too.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't see Crane's angle on that scenario.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think the real plan has become clear. He's going to use his past reputation and tank the next five years while collecting paychecks and playing Golden Tee in the new offices that he demanded to be built. He'll eventually get fired and leave the Cubs in terrible shape. I bet Crane Kenney is behind this plan too.

 

Nah. He'll just tank the first three years, then with his impressive farm system he'll win three division titles in six years, and everyone will proclaim how much better this all was than the Hendry regime.

[davell]

Theo's plan certainly was altered by the new CBA. That's obvious. His comment was stating facts. It's not going to be easy finding another true advantage over other teams. That said, he's also one of, if not THE, smartest guy in baseball. We've got tons of payroll flexibility, a good allotment of draft picks to go along with an impressive group of talent in the lower levels of our system, and a few young guys we can start to build around. He's not going to make excuses, he's squarely in HIS process. Without knowing exactly what that is, I feel very confident it doesn't include tanking for 3 or 4 years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Screw it, it's Opening Day, everything is awesome

[davell]

For us to contend in 2013, we definitely need Brett and Rizzo to turn in solid major league seasons. Castro has to be elite. It's be great if Stewart was a league average offensive 3B. If not, it's another hole to fill, although it's one that's at least possible could be filled in house, with either of Vitters or Lake. Soto or possibly Castillo at C? For contention, you'd think we need Soto. Barney at 2B? He's passable, until we have to start paying him. The corner OF spots will be weak, but certainly money available to upgrade. I have no problem saying we need a middle of the order hitter to come from one of those two spots. One much better than Soriano. Offensively, we need Castro as a legit 3rd hitter, a cleanup hitter to come from either LF or RF, keep Soto most likely, get average production out of 3B and for Brett and Rizzo to be solid/average. Can this be done? Yeah, I don't think we're looking at TOO many things to do here. A little progression from some young guys and one big bat. May have to acquire it through trade, but we don't even have a clue what may wind up being available, so it's impossible to speculate.

 

Pitching is easier. We need Garza to prove he's a legit 1 or 2. And we need Shark, Volstad, or Wood, to prove they're at least a legit 3, with at least one of the other 2 being decent enough to stick in the rotation. Again, we'll need one bigtime addition here as well and possibly a scrap heap 5th guy, if things go wrong. The pen is a crap shoot anyway, so we just need to audition enough of these guys this year to figure out who can stick and I figure that's in the plan anyway.

 

My original thoughts have been 2 bats and 2 arms for us to be a legit contender, but it's possible to add one of each next offseason and be contending in 2013, with the state of our division and we can add more whenever it shows itself from then on.

[davell]

Damnit. Why'd you edit your post Kyle? :D

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Damnit. Why'd you edit your post Kyle? :D

 

Meh. I'm still a lot more skeptical than you, but what's the fun of arguing the pessimsitic side of things on Opening Day?

 

We are hoping for a metric ton of guys who are very questionable to turn into something better than what they are right now. And right now, I'd rather focus on the "maybe they will" than the "they probably won't, though."

[Backtobanks]

For us to contend in 2013, we definitely need Brett and Rizzo to turn in solid major league seasons. Castro has to be elite. It's be great if Stewart was a league average offensive 3B. If not, it's another hole to fill, although it's one that's at least possible could be filled in house, with either of Vitters or Lake. Soto or possibly Castillo at C? For contention, you'd think we need Soto. Barney at 2B? He's passable, until we have to start paying him. The corner OF spots will be weak, but certainly money available to upgrade. I have no problem saying we need a middle of the order hitter to come from one of those two spots. One much better than Soriano. Offensively, we need Castro as a legit 3rd hitter, a cleanup hitter to come from either LF or RF, keep Soto most likely, get average production out of 3B and for Brett and Rizzo to be solid/average. Can this be done? Yeah, I don't think we're looking at TOO many things to do here. A little progression from some young guys and one big bat. May have to acquire it through trade, but we don't even have a clue what may wind up being available, so it's impossible to speculate.

 

Pitching is easier. We need Garza to prove he's a legit 1 or 2. And we need Shark, Volstad, or Wood, to prove they're at least a legit 3, with at least one of the other 2 being decent enough to stick in the rotation. Again, we'll need one bigtime addition here as well and possibly a scrap heap 5th guy, if things go wrong. The pen is a crap shoot anyway, so we just need to audition enough of these guys this year to figure out who can stick and I figure that's in the plan anyway.

 

My original thoughts have been 2 bats and 2 arms for us to be a legit contender, but it's possible to add one of each next offseason and be contending in 2013, with the state of our division and we can add more whenever it shows itself from then on.

 

I agree with your post. As you stated, it's going to take a lot of crossing our fingers and hoping lots of things go our way. Brett & Rizzo definitely have to live up to expectations or we're really in trouble. It will be interesting to see what happens with Shark in the rotation, but Volstad and Wood seem more like BOR guys. We can all be thankful for being in the NL Central because we might be 5 years away in some of the other divisions.