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2012 NCAA Tournament thread

chuckywang

By chuckywang,
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UK1679666180 Knoxville Smokies

UK1679666180

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Disappointed by the behavior down in Lexington, the 3 title game appear nothing to this extreme really occured.

 

I seen this posted 20 minutes ago and still can't make sense of it

 

Heh, I'm not sure what his initial appearance was.

 

What I was trying to say what for the 3 title games I was present for in Lexington, it never was as bad as what it looked like last night.

bukie All-Star

bukie

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Congrats, UK fans. UK is probably the most dominant champion since the NCAA started listing the #1 overall seed in 2006, and the only #1 overall seed to win the tournament since then.
SouthSideRyan MVP

SouthSideRyan

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Congrats, UK fans. UK is probably the most dominant champion since the NCAA started listing the #1 overall seed in 2006, and the only #1 overall seed to win the tournament since then.

 

That Florida team wasn't overall #1? Wow

bukie All-Star

bukie

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Congrats, UK fans. UK is probably the most dominant champion since the NCAA started listing the #1 overall seed in 2006, and the only #1 overall seed to win the tournament since then.

 

That Florida team wasn't overall #1? Wow

They coasted through the year in 2007. Most people were surprised they even got a 1 seed (UCLA, Memphis and Georgetown were up there). I believe OSU was the #1 overall in 2007.

bukie All-Star

bukie

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Then the article I read this morning lied to me. I still remembered 2007 Florida coasting in the regular season, though.
snoodmonger Iowa Cubs

snoodmonger

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Congrats, UK fans. UK is probably the most dominant champion since the NCAA started listing the #1 overall seed in 2006, and the only #1 overall seed to win the tournament since then.

 

Interesting that you say that. You're a stats guy, so I'd be interested in your take on this post from a big-time stats guy on phog.

 

Now that kenpom's updated his site with tonight's game, we know that Kentucky finished the season with a 0.9679 Pythag rating. I checked back since the 2002-03 season, for which he has stats. The Pythag rating for a team should be roughly equivalent season to season because it's based on a comparison to the average NCAA team. I would argue that the strength of the average NCAA team is essentially the same over that span.

 

But just to be conservative, I examined the ratings using three different thresholds.

 

1) Teams with a Pythag better than Kentucky's rating this year (0.9679) = 17

2) Teams with a Pythag at least 0.001 better than Kentucky (0.9689) = 15

3) Teams with a Pythag at least 0.01 better than Kentucky (0.9779) = 3

 

Say what you will about how these numbers don't convey how truly good this UK team was, etc. But the on-court performance (not accomplishment ... performance) for this team was probably somewhere in the Top 5 or 8 of the last 10 seasons, not anywhere close to the best.

 

The best team overall since the 2002-03 as rated by kenpom's year-end Pythag ... still our '08 team. RCJH

bukie All-Star

bukie

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Assuming overall NCAA talent is the same year-in, year-out is a huge assumption. If anything, I'd argue that NCAA talent was as high as it's been in years this year, due to fewer students declaring because of the lockout scare. 2008 was certainly one of the more top-heavy years in recent memory (along with this year, IMO), which makes Kansas's accomplishment within the tourney even more impressive.

 

Looking at it from a different perspective, in terms of accomplishment instead of predictive behavior, here are the Sagarin ELO's for the best team in the country at the end of each of the past 11 years (as long as Sagarin has done it):

 

2012 - Kentucky - 99.43

2011 - Ohio State - 94.29

2010 - Duke - 95.26

2009 - North Carolina - 97.14

2008 - Kansas - 101.55

2007 - Ohio State - 99.01

2006 - Florida - 94.08

2005 - Illinois - 98.38

2004 - Connecticut - 94.37

2003 - Kentucky - 94.11

2002 - Maryland - 95.71

 

Interestingly, Kansas is the highest there, as well. However, another way to measure dominance would be how much better the top team is than the next-best team in the ratings. In that sense:

 

2012 - Kentucky - 5.44 (Syracuse)

2011 - Ohio State - 0.29 (Connecticut)

2010 - Duke - 0.81 (Kansas)

2009 - North Carolina - 2.45 (Connecticut)

2008 - Kansas - 1.17 (Memphis)

2007 - Ohio State - 3.90 (Florida)

2006 - Florida - 0.40 (Connecticut)

2005 - Illinois - 1.09 (UNC)

2004 - Connecticut - 0.56 (St. Joseph's)

2003 - Kentucky - 0.73 (Syracuse)

2002 - Maryland - 0.52 (Kansas)

 

In that sense, it's been a long time since the best team was that much better over the season than the next-best team. And the next closest time, that team didn't even win the NCAA championship.

 

So, yes, 2008 Kansas was a great team in a season of great top teams. 2012 Kentucky was a great team in a season with a talent boost due to special circumstances that was far better than the field.

snoodmonger Iowa Cubs

snoodmonger

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Assuming overall NCAA talent is the same year-in, year-out is a huge assumption. If anything, I'd argue that NCAA talent was as high as it's been in years this year, due to fewer students declaring because of the lockout scare. 2008 was certainly one of the more top-heavy years in recent memory (along with this year, IMO), which makes Kansas's accomplishment within the tourney even more impressive.

 

Looking at it from a different perspective, in terms of accomplishment instead of predictive behavior, here are the Sagarin ELO's for the best team in the country at the end of each of the past 11 years (as long as Sagarin has done it):

 

2012 - Kentucky - 99.43

2011 - Ohio State - 94.29

2010 - Duke - 95.26

2009 - North Carolina - 97.14

2008 - Kansas - 101.55

2007 - Ohio State - 99.01

2006 - Florida - 94.08

2005 - Illinois - 98.38

2004 - Connecticut - 94.37

2003 - Kentucky - 94.11

2002 - Maryland - 95.71

 

Interestingly, Kansas is the highest there, as well. However, another way to measure dominance would be how much better the top team is than the next-best team in the ratings. In that sense:

 

2012 - Kentucky - 5.44 (Syracuse)

2011 - Ohio State - 0.29 (Connecticut)

2010 - Duke - 0.81 (Kansas)

2009 - North Carolina - 2.45 (Connecticut)

2008 - Kansas - 1.17 (Memphis)

2007 - Ohio State - 3.90 (Florida)

2006 - Florida - 0.40 (Connecticut)

2005 - Illinois - 1.09 (UNC)

2004 - Connecticut - 0.56 (St. Joseph's)

2003 - Kentucky - 0.73 (Syracuse)

2002 - Maryland - 0.52 (Kansas)

 

In that sense, it's been a long time since the best team was that much better over the season than the next-best team. And the next closest time, that team didn't even win the NCAA championship.

 

So, yes, 2008 Kansas was a great team in a season of great top teams. 2012 Kentucky was a great team in a season with a talent boost due to special circumstances that was far better than the field.

 

Interesting. Thanks for the response. UK was definitely bad-ass this year. I never really felt the talent across the board was that great this year, though. It almost seemed like a down year to me, aside from a couple of stacked teams.

illiniguy Knoxville Smokies

illiniguy

Old-Timey Member
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you probably never watch the big ten psycho

 

Much like NBA scouts.

Which is why Meyers Leonard, Jared Sullinger, and Cody Zeller will all go undrafted this year. No one saw them all year.

Guest

Guest

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Posted
Posted
Its weird not being down in Lexington for this one. They played great as a team, despite having anywhere from 4-6 1st rounders. KU couldn't overcome the talent difference.

 

UK will need to cont the annual roster overhaul. With Davis doing as well as he did, that should open the door for Noel and despite the troubles Shabazz as well.

 

We'll see if UK gets caught, too.

 

Disappointed by the behavior down in Lexington, the 3 title game appear nothing to this extreme really occured.

 

Officiating was brutal on both sides.

 

I'm pretty sure Shabazz isn't going to Kentucky.

UK1679666180 Knoxville Smokies

UK1679666180

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Its weird not being down in Lexington for this one. They played great as a team, despite having anywhere from 4-6 1st rounders. KU couldn't overcome the talent difference.

 

UK will need to cont the annual roster overhaul. With Davis doing as well as he did, that should open the door for Noel and despite the troubles Shabazz as well.

 

We'll see if UK gets caught, too.

 

Disappointed by the behavior down in Lexington, the 3 title game appear nothing to this extreme really occured.

 

Officiating was brutal on both sides.

 

I'm pretty sure Shabazz isn't going to Kentucky.

 

Telep said it is down to UCLA, UK, and Duke. There have rumblings about him playing overseas for a year. But there are rumors he will announce at UCLA so you're probably right.

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