NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[SouthSideRyan]

I understand, but if you're going to give St. Louis credit for a lack of bad losses, then Northwestern gets to be the king of that discussion, with zero losses outside the top 70 Pomeroy, and 6 losses by a bucket or in OT (I mean, they just really needed to close out ONE other game). St. Louis is a better team easily (thus the gap in Pomeroy rating, largely due to the average margin of victory), but the RPI resumes are scary close.

13 is a lot of losses, even if none were bad. I'm sure it's happened but I can't remember the last time an at-large got in with so many. The B1G is a very good conference this year, but if you're gonna be 8-10 in any league, you'd better have a bunch of good wins. NU only has one really good one (MSU). JMHO.

 

I'm down on Northwestern, but the Big 10 had 4 teams make it with 13 or 14 losses last year. (Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State)

[SouthSideRyan]

Sending my #s now, but I really think we need to re-visit Tennessee in place of some of the current back end of the bubble.

[Vanilla Ice]

One last thing to keep in mind also is that we're not doing this as an exercise to see how we can bring our bracket more in line with Lunardi/Bracket Project/whatever. Screw em. We can compare our bracket to theirs when it's done. There have been many instances over the past 8 years where our bracket has done significantly better than average (almost every year, I think), so if anything, they should be looking at our progress to see where they screwed up.

I agree with you for the most part. However, I think there is something to the idea that if you are noticing an outlier in your individiual rankings, it might be worth a closer look to see if you missed anything. For instance, Lunardi had Tennessee much higher in his rankings than I did. That prompted me to look more closely at Tennessee's resume and I noticed that I think I was wrong on them.

[bukie]

Sending my #s now, but I really think we need to re-visit Tennessee in place of some of the current back end of the bubble.

Tonight we find out exactly where the back end of the bubble is, tomorrow we compare them once more to teams left in consideration. IT IS ALL A PROCESS. :)

[UMFan83]

Does Minnesota beating Michigan (up 7 with 3 minutes left) a night after beating Northwestern, get them back into the discussion? I don't know if a team with a 6-12 conference record should be in the dance, but supposedly they don't look at conference records.

 

Edit: Whoops never mind, that was just a jinx

[UMFan83]

Just so I don't do a ton of extra work, which of the 5 steps for today do you actually want us to send to you? Just 4 and 5 right?

[bukie]

Yes. But include Temple in the top 17.

[sneakypower]

Does Minnesota beating Michigan (up 7 with 3 minutes left) a night after beating Northwestern, get them back into the discussion? I don't know if a team with a 6-12 conference record should be in the dance, but supposedly they don't look at conference records.

 

Edit: Whoops never mind, that was just a jinx

god, you're the bitchiest bitch that ever bitched

[bukie]

One other thing: Any team that is still alive in a multi-bid tourney (i.e. a conference tourney that isn't already on the board in the bottom 16 spots, so A-10, Pac 12, MWC, SEC, etc) and isn't in the field will be put back in play tomorrow to account for possible upsets.

 

Right now, that looks like it'll include St. Bonaventure, UMass, Mississippi, and Marshall, with several others possible from the late games.

[bukie]

Xavier beat Dayton by 1. Tough luck for Dayton, but it looks like Dayton won't be in Dayton for the tournament this year.

[bukie]

Long Beach State won in the Big West semis today, preserving an extra at-large bid for an additional day.

[Smack]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

[bukie]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

I'll be able to tell you more in 90 minutes...

[UMFan83]

Does Minnesota beating Michigan (up 7 with 3 minutes left) a night after beating Northwestern, get them back into the discussion? I don't know if a team with a 6-12 conference record should be in the dance, but supposedly they don't look at conference records.

 

Edit: Whoops never mind, that was just a jinx

god, you're the bitchiest bitch that ever bitched

 

Thanks sweetheart

Edited March 10, 2012 by UMFan83

[Andy]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

[UMFan83]

Xavier beat Dayton by 1. Tough luck for Dayton, but it looks like Dayton won't be in Dayton for the tournament this year.

 

Well they will probably be in Dayton for classes and stuff.

[bukie]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

I WILL HAVE ALL THE NUMBERS IN 90 MINUTES. AT LEAST, FOR WHOEVER SENDS THEM TO ME.

[Andy]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

I WILL HAVE ALL THE NUMBERS IN 90 MINUTES. AT LEAST, FOR WHOEVER SENDS THEM TO ME.

Haha, I'm just tossing out guesses. My list is in as I'm sure you know.

[bukie]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

I WILL HAVE ALL THE NUMBERS IN 90 MINUTES. AT LEAST, FOR WHOEVER SENDS THEM TO ME.

Haha, I'm just tossing out guesses. My list is in as I'm sure you know.

Actually, I don't have one from you yet today.

[UMFan83]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

I WILL HAVE ALL THE NUMBERS IN 90 MINUTES. AT LEAST, FOR WHOEVER SENDS THEM TO ME.

 

Working on mine now.

[Andy]

Alright guys, you're really good at this. Tell me Purdue isn't in an 8/9 game. I'll take a 7, or a 10, or an 11...

Purdue's floor at this point, I feel like, is a 9. Their ceiling would probably be a 6. Just total guesswork without any numbers in front of me though.

I WILL HAVE ALL THE NUMBERS IN 90 MINUTES. AT LEAST, FOR WHOEVER SENDS THEM TO ME.

Haha, I'm just tossing out guesses. My list is in as I'm sure you know.

Actually, I don't have one from you yet today.

I don't know what you're talking about. I totally remembered to send you that draft I saved eight hours ago...

[bukie]

Arizona jumps into the pool of "Hey, they may actually win that conference tourney instead of a bid-worthy team" teams. If Colorado beats Cal in the nightcap, then an at-large bid is surely stolen. Perhaps from Cal, even, but probably not.

[UMFan83]

I'm pretty sure I'm putting Cincinnati way too high but look at what a run they are on. 9-2 in their last 11 games including wins over Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville and Seton Hall. Only losses were @ Marquette and @ South Florida.

 

They now have 5 wins this year against the top 20 RPI teams, and 7 against the top 40. Their biggest problem is that they lost to something call Presbyterian, but that was all the way back in November, so I'm willing to overlook that one.

[UMFan83]

Does anyone else think that the firm use of "Top 25/50/100" wins is kind of silly?

 

I was just reading that NC State came into the week 0-8 against the Top 50, which was a major blow against its resume. But after everything that happened during the week, they now have 4 wins against the Top 50, which supposedly is a huge bump for their profile. But the teams they beat awhile ago (Miami x2, Texas) are still the same damn teams, but now ranked 48th and 49th instead of 51st and 52nd. I know you have to draw the line somewhere to compare 100 different teams evenly, but still there has to be a way to take those borderline top 50 wins into consideration.

[Vanilla Ice]

Does anyone else think that the firm use of "Top 25/50/100" wins is kind of silly?

 

I was just reading that NC State came into the week 0-8 against the Top 50, which was a major blow against its resume. But after everything that happened during the week, they now have 4 wins against the Top 50, which supposedly is a huge bump for their profile. But the teams they beat awhile ago (Miami x2, Texas) are still the same damn teams, but now ranked 48th and 49th instead of 51st and 52nd. I know you have to draw the line somewhere to compare 100 different teams evenly, but still there has to be a way to take those borderline top 50 wins into consideration.

 

At the same time, those 8 losses came against 5 top 10 teams, 2 more top 30 teams, and Virginia (who they just beat). Seems like they've shown themselves to be incapable of beating the top 10 and capable of knocking off teams a little bit lower than that.

 

Of those 8 losses, Pomeroy actually has Florida St. ranked the lowest at 28.