NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

Looks like we're going to end up with 27 locks initially, only 20 of which were unanimous.

 

And 52 teams in consideration.

 

And a clear top 16 for the next step.

[bukie]

Step 1 results:

 

The committee:

bukie - Illinois

SouthSideRyan - Illinois

Transmogrified Tiger - Missouri

Formerly Snayke - St. Louis

Andy - Notre Dame

Vanilla Ice - UNC

UMFan - Michigan

 

Top 16:

 

Baylor

Duke

Florida

Georgetown

Indiana

Kansas (Big 12)

Kentucky (SEC)

Marquette

Michigan

Michigan State

Missouri

North Carolina (ACC)

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Syracuse (Big East)

Wichita State

Wisconsin

 

 

Other at-large locks (11):

 

Florida State

Gonzaga

Iowa State

Kansas State

Louisville

New Mexico

Notre Dame

Purdue

Temple (Atlantic 10)

UNLV (MWC)

Vanderbilt

 

 

Other auto bids (12):

 

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

UNC Asheville (Big South)

VCU (CAA)

Detroit (Horizon)

Harvard (Ivy)

Loyola MD (MAAC)

Creighton (MVC)

Murray State (OVC)

Davidson (Southern)

South Dakota St (Summit)

Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

St Mary's (WCC)

 

 

Other teams under at-large consideration (51):

 

Akron

Alabama

Arizona

Arkansas

BYU

California

Central Florida

Cincinnati

Colorado

Colorado State

Connecticut

Dayton

Drexel

Illinois

Iona

Iowa

La Salle

Long Beach State

LSU

Marshall

Massachusetts

Memphis

Miami

Middle Tennessee

Minnesota

Mississippi

Mississippi State

NC State

Nevada

Northwestern

Ohio

Oral Roberts

Oregon

Pittsburgh

San Diego State

Seton Hall

South Florida

Southern Miss

St Bonaventure

St Joseph's

St Louis

Stanford

Tennessee

Texas

UCLA

Valparaiso

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wyoming

Xavier

 

 

Unclaimed auto bids (12):

 

America East: (Stony Brook)

Big Sky: (Montana)

Big West: (Long Beach State)

Conference USA: (Memphis)

MAC: (Ohio)

MEAC: (Savannah State)

NEC: (Long Island)

Pac-12: (California)

Patriot: (Bucknell)

Southland: (UT Arlington)

SWAC: (Mississippi Valley State)

WAC: (New Mexico State)

 

Edited March 7, 2012 by bukie

[bukie]

Oh, and here were my picks (representing Illinois):

 

Locks (28):

Baylor

Duke

Florida

Florida State

Georgetown

Gonzaga

Indiana

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Kentucky

Louisville

Marquette

Memphis

Michigan

Michigan State

Missouri

New Mexico

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Purdue

Syracuse

Temple

UNLV

Vanderbilt

Wichita State

Wisconsin

 

Consideration (40):

Alabama

Arizona

BYU

California

Cincinnati

Colorado State

Connecticut

Dayton

Drexel

Iona

La Salle

Long Beach State

Miami

Middle Tennessee

Minnesota

Mississippi State

NC State

Nevada

Northwestern

Ohio

Oral Roberts

Oregon

San Diego State

Seton Hall

South Dakota State

South Florida

Southern Miss

St Bonaventure

St Josephs

St Louis

Stanford

Tennessee

Texas

UCLA

Valparaiso

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Xavier

 

Top 16:

1. Kentucky

2. Syracuse

3. Kansas

4. North Carolina

5. Ohio State

6. Michigan State

7. Missouri

8. Duke

9. Indiana

10. Wisconsin

11. Marquette

12. Baylor

13. Georgetown

14. Wichita State

15. Michigan

16. Creighton

[SouthSideRyan]

Quibble, you've got SDSU listed under at-large possibilities

[Vanilla Ice]

Don't think Florida belongs in the top 16...

[bukie]

Quibble, you've got SDSU listed under at-large possibilities

Fifty-one teams under consideration, then.

 

Don't think Florida belongs in the top 16...

That will sort itself out in subsequent stages, trust me.

[SouthSideRyan]

So my quick math has 10-17 at-large spots available for 47-51 teams.

[Vanilla Ice]

Don't think Florida belongs in the top 16...

That will sort itself out in subsequent stages, trust me.

Yeah, I just remember looking through their resume and being surprised how weak it looked to me

[Vanilla Ice]

Also, how many people do we have this year?

[SouthSideRyan]

Don't think Florida belongs in the top 16...

That will sort itself out in subsequent stages, trust me.

Yeah, I just remember looking through their resume and being surprised how weak it looked to me

 

Same, I had them set in my 16 subset, then when I went to slot them, I had to take them out and put in *shudder* KSU

[SouthSideRyan]

Also, how many people do we have this year?

 

The committee:

bukie - Illinois

SouthSideRyan - Illinois

Transmogrified Tiger - Missouri

Formerly Snayke - St. Louis

Andy - Notre Dame

Vanilla Ice - UNC

UMFan - Michigan

 

Also, aren't you a Duke fan and Snayke a Mizzou fan?

[bukie]

Stage 2, for midnight CST Wednesday:

 

1) Rank the listed top 16 in order. The top 8 will go into the S-Curve, the next 8 will be re-ranked in the next stage with 8 additional teams.

2) List your next top 12 from the teams locked in, auto bids, and other teams under consideration if you feel the need (just one list of the 12 next best teams)

3) List your top 16 teams from those in consideration. There are between 10 and 17 at-large spots yet left unclaimed, pending multi-bid conference tourney results.

4) List the bottom 16 teams from among those in consideration. 51 teams is too many. Some need to be taken off the board.

5) From among the auto bids and unclaimed auto bids (with most likely winner as placeholder), rank the bottom 12 teams.

[bukie]

If anything I just typed in the last page is confusing, just ask and I'll answer in the morning. I'm sleepy.

[SouthSideRyan]

Stage 2, for midnight CST Wednesday:

 

1) Rank the listed top 16 in order. The top 8 will go into the S-Curve, the next 8 will be re-ranked in the next stage with 8 additional teams.

2) List your next top 12 from the teams locked in, auto bids, and other teams under consideration if you feel the need (just one list of the 12 next best teams)

3) List your top 16 teams from those in consideration. There are between 10 and 17 at-large spots yet left unclaimed, pending multi-bid conference tourney results.

4) List the bottom 16 teams from among those in consideration. 51 teams is too many. Some need to be taken off the board.

5) From among the auto bids and unclaimed auto bids (with most likely winner as placeholder), rank the bottom 12 teams.

 

If I can pre-emptively clarify for tired bukie.(And hopefully I get it right) If in list 2 you have a team from the "in consideration" list, you should still include them in list 3.

[SouthSideRyan]

Biggest surprise? How much I liked Washington's resume

[Vanilla Ice]

Biggest surprise? How much I liked Washington's resume

Mine? How little I liked St. Louis' resume.

 

Also, I am a UNC student now so kinda changed my allegiances..

[bukie]

Stage 2, for midnight CST Wednesday:

 

1) Rank the listed top 16 in order. The top 8 will go into the S-Curve, the next 8 will be re-ranked in the next stage with 8 additional teams.

2) List your next top 12 from the teams locked in, auto bids, and other teams under consideration if you feel the need (just one list of the 12 next best teams)

3) List your top 16 teams from those in consideration. There are between 10 and 17 at-large spots yet left unclaimed, pending multi-bid conference tourney results.

4) List the bottom 16 teams from among those in consideration. 51 teams is too many. Some need to be taken off the board.

5) From among the auto bids and unclaimed auto bids (with most likely winner as placeholder), rank the bottom 12 teams.

 

If I can pre-emptively clarify for tired bukie.(And hopefully I get it right) If in list 2 you have a team from the "in consideration" list, you should still include them in list 3.

Indeed. And if your team is among the top 16 (UNC, Missouri, Michigan, Illinois), leave them out and rank the top 15. I promise it isn't going to hurt their standing the way I calculate it.

[SouthSideRyan]

Stage 2, for midnight CST Wednesday:

 

1) Rank the listed top 16 in order. The top 8 will go into the S-Curve, the next 8 will be re-ranked in the next stage with 8 additional teams.

2) List your next top 12 from the teams locked in, auto bids, and other teams under consideration if you feel the need (just one list of the 12 next best teams)

3) List your top 16 teams from those in consideration. There are between 10 and 17 at-large spots yet left unclaimed, pending multi-bid conference tourney results.

4) List the bottom 16 teams from among those in consideration. 51 teams is too many. Some need to be taken off the board.

5) From among the auto bids and unclaimed auto bids (with most likely winner as placeholder), rank the bottom 12 teams.

 

If I can pre-emptively clarify for tired bukie.(And hopefully I get it right) If in list 2 you have a team from the "in consideration" list, you should still include them in list 3.

Indeed. And if your team is among the top 16 (UNC, Missouri, Michigan, Illinois), leave them out and rank the top 15. I promise it isn't going to hurt their standing the way I calculate it.

 

Same with bottom 16 :banghead:

 

Though, I'm actually not sure Illinois is in the bottom 16 in that list.

[UMFan83]

Also, I am a UNC student now so kinda changed my allegiances..

 

You're kidding me right?

[bukie]

A blind analysis of the top 16:

Team RPI   SOS    R/N   Top25   Top50   Top100 100+L 200+L  Best  Worst
A     28    37    8-7     1-4     3-5      8-7     2     0    24    152
B     12    28    6-6     4-4     9-4     11-5     2     0     2    149
C      3     4   10-3     3-4     6-4     11-4     0     0     4     24
D      4     2   13-2     6-4     7-5     13-5     0     0     3     56
E      1    27   11-1     2-0     9-1     16-1     0     0     7     38
F     13    53   12-4     2-2     2-3      6-3     2     0    15    134
G      5     1    7-6     7-5     9-6     11-7     0     0     8     84
H      8    10    7-4     5-5     9-5     12-6     0     0     4     84
I      7    16   10-5     2-2     5-5     11-6     0     0    10     89
J     16    81   11-3     3-1     7-3     10-3     1     0     6    120
K     11    11    8-7     5-4     9-6     12-7     1     0     5    133
L     21    21    9-4     3-6     6-6     10-6     2     0     8    133
M     10    10    6-6     3-3     8-4      8-7     0     0     7     96
N      9    19   11-3     1-4     7-6     11-6     0     0    25     40
O      6     7   10-4     5-3    10-4     12-5     0     0     8     65
P      2    36   12-1     2-1     8-1     15-1     0     0     3     11

[Andy]

Also, I am a UNC student now so kinda changed my allegiances..

 

You're kidding me right?

UNC had better be really, really, REALLY good at whatever field you're studying.

[Andy]

Also, minor quibble, Ohio State is listed in the top 16 and in the 'other' at-large locks.

[bukie]

Also, minor quibble, Ohio State is listed in the top 16 and in the 'other' at-large locks.

You must be seeing things, that was always New Mexico there...

 

EDIT: But actually, that was a major quibble, because New Mexico ended up being missing entirely from any list as a result.

Edited March 7, 2012 by bukie

[bukie]

I could always add Conference RPI to the blind list too, but I'm not sure if that's still part of the committee criteria.

 

EDIT: It's not, but "Average RPI opponent" is, which is kind of interesting. http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect/public/ncaa/pdfs/2012/2012+03-06+mbb+nitty+gritty

[bukie]

Long Island wins the NEC, Lehigh upsets Bucknell to win the Patriot league.