NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2012

[bukie]

A bit over an hour left to get me phase 2.

 

Montana wins the Big Sky, and Savannah State loses in the quarters of the MEAC tourney, which means the MEAC winner will be awful, as usual.

[bukie]

Still waiting on a couple lists, so I'll post in the morning. As for my phase 2 picks:

 

Top 16:

Syracuse (Big East)

Kentucky (SEC)

North Carolina (ACC)

Kansas (Big 12)

Ohio State (Big Ten)

Michigan State

Missouri

Duke

Indiana

Wisconsin

Marquette

Baylor

Georgetown

Wichita State

Michigan

Florida

 

Next 12:

Creighton (MVC)

UNLV (MWC)

St Mary's (WCC)

Temple (Atlantic 10)

Gonzaga

Florida State

Murray State (OVC)

Iowa State

Notre Dame

Purdue

Kansas State

New Mexico

 

Consider Top 16 (in order):

Memphis

Alabama

BYU

Washington

California

St Louis

Cincinnati

Virginia

Connecticut

Drexel

San Diego State

Southern Miss

Northwestern

Long Beach State

West Virginia

Texas

 

Low 16 Consider (in order):

Valparaiso

Arkansas

LSU

Nevada

Oral Roberts

Pittsburgh

Iowa

Colorado

Massachusetts

Central Florida

Mississippi

Mississippi State

Colorado State

Ohio

Wyoming

Akron

 

Bottom 12 (worst to first):

SWAC: (Mississippi Valley State)

MEAC: (Norfolk State)

Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

Long Island (NEC)

America East: (Stony Brook)

Loyola MD (MAAC)

UNC Asheville (Big South)

Detroit (Horizon)

Southland: (UT Arlington)

Montana (Big Sky)

Lehigh (Patriot)

MAC: (Ohio)

[bukie]

There is an extremely clear top 8 consensus, though.

[SouthSideRyan]

Those bottom 16 didn't have to be in order did they?

[bukie]

If they weren't I just gave them all equal weight.

[Vanilla Ice]

Yeah, mine weren't in order because I figured all 16 of those teams could be pretty safely cut

[Guest]

My apologies for not getting the list in, the evening got away from me. I'll be good for the upcoming days.

[bukie]

Step 2 results:

 

S-Curve (top 8, bottom 10):

1. Kentucky (SEC)

2. Syracuse (Big East)

3. Kansas (Big 12)

4. North Carolina (ACC)

5. Ohio State (Big Ten)

6. Duke

7. Michigan State

8. Missouri

...

59. Lehigh (Patriot)

60. Loyola MD (MAAC)

61. Detroit (Horizon

62. Southland (UT Arlington)

63. UNC Asheville (Big South)

64. Long Island (NEC)

65. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

66. America East (Stony Brook)

67. MEAC (Norfolk State)

68. SWAC (Mississippi Valley State)

 

 

Next 16:

 

Baylor

Creighton (MVC)

Florida

Florida State

Georgetown

Indiana

Kansas State

Louisville

Marquette

Michigan

Murray State (OVC)

St Mary's (WCC)

Temple (A-10)

UNLV (MWC)

Wichita State

Wisconsin

 

 

Rest of at-large field (18):

 

Alabama

BYU

California (Pac-12)

Cincinnati

Connecticut

Gonzaga

Iowa State

Memphis (CUSA)

New Mexico

Notre Dame

Purdue

San Diego State

Southern Miss

St Louis

Vanderbilt

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

 

 

Other auto bids (6):

 

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

Davidson (Southern)

Harvard (Ivy)

Montana (Big Sky)

South Dakota St (Summit)

VCU (CAA)

 

 

Unclaimed auto bids (3):

 

Big West: (Long Beach State)

MAC: (Ohio)

WAC: (New Mexico State)

 

 

Teams still under at-large consideration (23 for up to 7 more spots):

 

Central Florida

Colorado State

Dayton

Drexel

Iona

Long Beach State

Marshall

Massachusetts

Miami

Middle Tennessee

Minnesota

Mississippi

Mississippi State

NC State

Northwestern

Oregon

Seton Hall

South Florida

St Joseph's

Stanford

Tennessee

Texas

Xavier

 

 

Teams off the board (16):

 

Akron

Arizona

Arkansas

Colorado

Illinois

Iowa

LSU

La Salle

Nevada

Ohio

Oral Roberts

Pittsburgh

St Bonaventure

UCLA

Valparaiso

Wyoming

 

Edited March 8, 2012 by bukie

[bukie]

My apologies for not getting the list in, the evening got away from me. I'll be good for the upcoming days.

It's ok, if you have any issues with the teams in (the top 8 was pretty clear, so I'll plan on leaving that the way it is), or off the board that you think deserve extra consideration, just make note of it in the thread.

[bukie]

Stage 3:

1) Decide on regions for the top 4 of the S-Curve, in order of seed priority. That can just be done in the thread easily enough.

2) Rank the "Next 16" in order. The top 8 will be placed on the S-Curve.

3) Rank the 12 next-most-deserving teams from among at-large locks, auto bids, and teams under consideration. The top 8 will be put into the "Next 16" list.

4) Rank the top 10 and bottom 10 teams in consideration. The 7 best will be put into the field for now, and the bottom 8-ish will be removed from consideration entirely.

5) Rank the bottom 8 teams in the field. The bottom 4 will be placed on the seed line 55-58 (14 seeds). If you feel that remaining auto-bids are stronger teams than other teams already in the field (or in your top 10 list of consideration), feel free to rank at-large teams in this list.

Edited March 8, 2012 by bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

Top of my head, Washington is missing from one of those lists.

[SouthSideRyan]

Sweet 16/Elite 8 Locations:

 

Boston, MA

Atlanta, GA

Phoenix, AZ

St. Louis, MO

 

1 seeds seem pretty easy.

 

UK - ATL

Cuse - BOS

KU - STL

UNC - PHX

 

The issue with the 2 seeds, is ordinarily you'd like to put Mizzou in STL, but you'd be giving the 2 seed the homecourt advantage over the 1, you'd have the top 2 Big XII teams in the same bracket, you'd be matching up the 3 and 8 seeds. So personally I'd prefer to send them straight in order.

 

5. Ohio State (Big Ten) - PHX

6. Duke - STL

7. Michigan State - BOS

8. Missouri - ATL

 

Maybe we could swap Duke and MSU's locations? (Distance from Duke is about equal, MSU gains 5 hours by playing in STL rather than BOS.

Edited March 8, 2012 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

Top of my head, Washington is missing from one of those lists.

Numbers were right, just didn't get them moved into the at-large group.

[SouthSideRyan]

64/32 round locations

 

Rose Garden, Portland, Oregon (Host: University of Oregon)

The Pit, Albuquerque, New Mexico (Host: University of New Mexico)

Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (Host: Duquesne University)

KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, Kentucky (Host: University of Louisville)

Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio (Host: Ohio State University)

CenturyLink Center Omaha, Omaha, Nebraska (Host: Creighton University)

Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee (Host: Ohio Valley Conference)

Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, North Carolina (Host: Atlantic Coast Conference)

 

UK - Louisville

Cuse - Pittsburgh

KU - Omaha

UNC - Greensboro

OSU - Pittsburgh (Cannot play at host arena)

Duke - Greensboro

MSU - Columbus

Mizzou - Kind of in no-man's land (Omaha 5+ hrs, Louisville, 6+, Nashville 7+) I'd say put them in whichever of the 3 works out best after looking at at least the 3 seeds. If none of those have an obvious fit to Omaha, stick Mizzou there?)

[bukie]

So far, then...

 

http://i.imgur.com/ji3Mc.png

Edited March 8, 2012 by bukie

[Guest]

Mizzou's been linked to Omaha in every projection I've seen, I have to imagine they end up there.

[bukie]

We can just toss them there, then. Updated the bracket image with dates, just to keep track.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a pointless thing to go to bat for, but I like MS Valley State a lot more than Norfolk. The Tourney once again put only one HBC in the opening round, so I guess we should stick to that.

 

Other than upsets in pending conference tourneys, there's no reason we can't at least fill in the 15/16 lines right?

 

ETA Strike that, I liked MS Valley over Savannah. Norfolk actually beat Drexel, and lost by 2 to Marquette.

[SouthSideRyan]

Opening round games:

 

MS Valley vs. Stony Brook/Vermont winner

Western KY vs. Long Island

 

Potential spoilers for this setup:

 

Mcneese St or Stephen F Austin winning the Southland

Toledo or Western Michigan winning the MAC

Edited March 8, 2012 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

It's a pointless thing to go to bat for, but I like MS Valley State a lot more than Norfolk. The Tourney once again put only one HBC in the opening round, so I guess we should stick to that.

 

Other than upsets in pending conference tourneys, there's no reason we can't at least fill in the 15/16 lines right?

MS Valley State didn't win a single non-conference game in regulation. They went 1-11 in non-con, and that was the best team in the conference. The SWAC was worse than the Great West this year, and that's just sad.

 

As far as the only one HBC in the opening round, does that just cover the MEAC and the SWAC? So, basically, pick one? I'd pick the SWAC, unless a terrible (er?) MEAC team wins their tourney.

[javy knows my name]

Let me preface this by saying that I love this thread, always read it in its entirety, and have never participated because I don't quite have the know-how to do it justice. That's why I'm asking this question.

 

Why does the committee (yours, that is) like Wisconsin over Marquette right now? We've beaten them H2H on the road, have them destroyed in overall RPI, RPI likes our SOS better, and our conferences are numbers 1 and 2 in SOS, respectively. I know it's one spot and thus a minor quibble, but I would like to think we're basically a lock for a 3 and playing for a 2 in the BEC.

 

Thanks in advance, guys. Love this thread.

[bukie]

Let me preface this by saying that I love this thread, always read it in its entirety, and have never participated because I don't quite have the know-how to do it justice. That's why I'm asking this question.

 

Why does the committee (yours, that is) like Wisconsin over Marquette right now? We've beaten them H2H on the road, have them destroyed in overall RPI, RPI likes our SOS better, and our conferences are numbers 1 and 2 in SOS, respectively. I know it's one spot and thus a minor quibble, but I would like to think we're basically a lock for a 3 and playing for a 2 in the BEC.

 

Thanks in advance, guys. Love this thread.

We don't, overall. They're in the same pool of 16 for ranking, and Marquette finished higher than Wisconsin in the aggregate vote from last night. As for playing for a 2 seed, I really doubt it. That top 8 is pretty locked in, and not a single voter picked any team other than that top 8 among the top 8.

[javy knows my name]

Let me preface this by saying that I love this thread, always read it in its entirety, and have never participated because I don't quite have the know-how to do it justice. That's why I'm asking this question.

 

Why does the committee (yours, that is) like Wisconsin over Marquette right now? We've beaten them H2H on the road, have them destroyed in overall RPI, RPI likes our SOS better, and our conferences are numbers 1 and 2 in SOS, respectively. I know it's one spot and thus a minor quibble, but I would like to think we're basically a lock for a 3 and playing for a 2 in the BEC.

 

Thanks in advance, guys. Love this thread.

We don't, overall. They're in the same pool of 16 for ranking, and Marquette finished higher than Wisconsin in the aggregate vote from last night. As for playing for a 2 seed, I really doubt it. That top 8 is pretty locked in, and not a single voter picked any team other than that top 8 among the top 8.

 

Cool. I didn't know you were still playing with the top-16 at this point. Disregard.

[bukie]

As for why I put them one spot higher in my ranking, it has more to do with playing more top 25 and top 50 games, winning one more of each, and having a slightly better "best win". It's a coin flip in a lot of situations for many teams.

[Vanilla Ice]

Allow me to go to bat for San Diego St. a little bit here.

 

2-4 record against the RPI top 25 (wins over UNLV/Colorado St.)

5-5 record against the RPI top 50

3-0 record against the RPI 51-100

One loss against the RPI top 100+ (2 point loss to Air Force)

 

Compare that to somebody like Florida

 

1-4 record against the RPI top 25 (win over Florida St.)

3-5 record against the RPI top 50

6-2 record against the RPI 51-100

Two losses against the RPI 100+ (Georgia and Rutgers)

 

Or Louisville

 

1-5 record against the RPI top 25 (win over Memphis)

4-7 record against the RPI top 50

6-1 record against the RPI 51-100

One loss against the RPI top 100+ (31 point loss to Providence)