Wrigley Renovation Thread

[Guest]

 

Like I said up thread, until we trade shark, we can't even afford one major signing at that payroll level.

 

 

Show your work so I don't have to figure out why.

[Ryne Ween]

It seems like lately there's been a run of problems that make me really wonder if they're going to be able to maximize the results once they decide they're done stockpiling assets. You can't have things like "oops, we broke Starlin Castro" or "Don't see anything we like this offseason, pass" when you are trying to compete.

 

Well, they have the opportunity to fix Castro. Which they need to do. I'm not sure they would have passed on this offseason, if Tanaka had been posted much earlier. That said, the fact they're saying they saved money this offseason DOES create the expectation it will be spent soon. Next year at the latest, in my mind.

 

I imagine there's a good chance it will be needed next year to make up for the 300k loss in attendance they are projecting.

I really hope our front office isn't making decisions based on how it will affect attendance.

 

 

Yea god forbid they do something that would make somebody want to go to a game.

[jersey cubs fan]

I can see a Homer Bailey signing next offseason, along with a 40-50 mill expenditure on an IFA that's unknown at this point. Something along those lines. But it IS dependent on how Castro bounces back and how Javy and KB look.

 

I find it completely laughable though, that anyone thinks we're sitting on gobs of money and just not spending it. They can't even live up to their Arizona complex and build around it, as they were supposed to, after getting the entire project funded by others.

 

I really don't think that Arizona thing is a money issue.

 

Then what? They negotiated in bad faith and never planned on building anything?

 

Not sure if it's bad faith or not. Hotels across the street from Wrigley Field, which hosts 81 games per year and maybe 82 or 83 sometime in the next 10 years, is something you can justify. But building bars and restaurants and other stuff next to the facility that hosts 15 attended contests for one month a year seems silly for the Cubs.

 

They can probably afford to build a bar there, they just don't want the hassle. Let somebody else do it and get your revenue from your own stadium.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Like I said up thread, until we trade shark, we can't even afford one major signing at that payroll level.

 

 

Show your work so I don't have to figure out why.

 

Br has roster at 74m for next year without Fuji or veras options getting picked up. That leaves room for one Edwin Jackson or 2 jason hammels

[Guest]

 

Like I said up thread, until we trade shark, we can't even afford one major signing at that payroll level.

 

 

Show your work so I don't have to figure out why.

 

Br has roster at 74m for next year without Fuji or veras options getting picked up. That leaves room for one Edwin Jackson or 2 jason hammels

 

Cots has us with $31M in payroll obligations for 2015. I realize there are arb raises and stuff, but what the hell am I missing?

[Guest]

Soriano and Fujikawa alone are a marquee FA's salary in dead money this year.

 

I just don't get the assumption that the payroll will be 80-85 million next year. They explicitly stated when it was at ~100 million the last few years that they spent what was allotted to them, and then this year when the payroll is at 80 million after they swung and missed on Tanaka, they signed a 6 million SP and said they still had money in reserve. Everything they've done and said is consistent with having 100 million to work with, and saving it for the "unicorn" that was Tanaka at the opportunity cost of the FA that went off the board prior to them. If you want to say that means they're less likely to splurge in free agent pitching because Ubaldo and Santana are still out there, that's fine. But this coming offseason is the intersection of all their investment in the minors and player development hitting MLB and their reluctance to commit big dollars to external players. There's only so many roster spots, so something has to give. As someone who thinks the Front Office is bright enough to be interested in winning, it'll have to spent somewhere, and probably not scattered across a bunch of positions like in 2011, because there's fewer positions to scatter across.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

B-R has $43m in arbitration estimates for 12 arbitration-eligibles.

[Guest]

 

Not sure if it's bad faith or not. Hotels across the street from Wrigley Field, which hosts 81 games per year and maybe 82 or 83 sometime in the next 10 years, is something you can justify. But building bars and restaurants and other stuff next to the facility that hosts 15 attended contests for one month a year seems silly for the Cubs.

 

They can probably afford to build a bar there, they just don't want the hassle. Let somebody else do it and get your revenue from your own stadium.

 

This seems like a pretty decent possibility.

[jersey cubs fan]

Cots has us with $31M in payroll obligations for 2015. I realize there are arb raises and stuff, but what the hell am I missing?

 

That is 7 dudes, only 1 OF and 1 SP.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But this coming offseason is the intersection of all their investment in the minors and player development hitting MLB and their reluctance to commit big dollars to external players. There's only so many roster spots, so something has to give. As someone who thinks the Front Office is bright enough to be interested in winning, it'll have to spent somewhere, and probably not scattered across a bunch of positions like in 2011, because there's fewer positions to scatter across.

 

See, I don't think this coming offseason is the intersection. You'll still have a bad team. Free agents will still mostly be 30+ guys looking for deals that take them deep into their decline years. They still won't be just one or two players away from being a dominant team.

 

I've been a fan savvy enough to know about contracts and payroll for at least two decades. And there's *never* been a year where we didn't say "Look at all the money coming off the books, surely we'll concentrate all that on one or two awesome guys rather than spread it around the roster" and it never, ever happens.

 

I imagine we'll get one MOR SP, an outfielder on a 2-year deal and some relief pitchers and a backup catcher and who knows what else.

[Guest]

B-R has $43m in arbitration estimates for 12 arbitration-eligibles.

 

Those 12 are making 22 million this year, and are Shark, Wood, and 10 platoon/bench players and relievers. Their salaries are going to scale less than the average that B-R is using. There's also a more than passing chance that more than a few of them(Barney, Murphy, McDonald, Russell/Wright) are not on the roster next year for performance reasons or because other players can do what they do for nothing.

[Guest]

Cots has us with $31M in payroll obligations for 2015. I realize there are arb raises and stuff, but what the hell am I missing?

 

That is 7 dudes, only 1 OF and 1 SP.

 

Well, let's play pretend and say Alcantara, Baez, and Bryant all show enough in 2014 that they are penciled in for 2015 jobs...just for the sake of this exercise (maybe it's Olt instead of Alcantara, I don't know). Because if we don't have 3 of these prospects with regular starting jobs going into next year, something has gone pretty wrong.

 

So add 3 regular everyday players at league min.

 

I guess one of those dudes (of the 7) is Soler, though, so you can take him out.

[SouthSideRyan]

B-R has $43m in arbitration estimates for 12 arbitration-eligibles.

 

Those 12 are making 22 million this year, and are Shark, Wood, and 10 platoon/bench players and relievers. Their salaries are going to scale less than the average that B-R is using. There's also a more than passing chance that more than a few of them(Barney, Murphy, McDonald, Russell/Wright) are not on the roster next year for performance reasons or because other players can do what they do for nothing.

 

The numbers are imperfect for sure but they also have shark and woods salaries dropping by a combined 2.5m as opposed to the ~8m or so increase they'll be receiving

 

13m in arb raises for the remaining 10 sounds pretty close to me

[Guest]

B-R has $43m in arbitration estimates for 12 arbitration-eligibles.

 

Those 12 are making 22 million this year, and are Shark, Wood, and 10 platoon/bench players and relievers. Their salaries are going to scale less than the average that B-R is using. There's also a more than passing chance that more than a few of them(Barney, Murphy, McDonald, Russell/Wright) are not on the roster next year for performance reasons or because other players can do what they do for nothing.

 

The numbers are imperfect for sure but they also have shark and woods salaries dropping by a combined 2.5m as opposed to the ~8m or so increase they'll be receiving

 

13m in arb raises for the remaining 10 sounds pretty close to me

 

Individually sure, but there's zero chance of it adding up that way when the more likely outcome is only 6 of the remaining 10 make the 2015 roster.

 

EDIT: Not to put too fine a point on it because we're still a full season of performance out from those decisions, but you can easily see how that flexibility fits in.

 

Castillo, Kottaras

Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Valbuena, Olt/Bryant/Alcantara, [iF]

Sweeney, Lake/Vitters, Ruggiano, [OF], [OF]

Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Arrieta/Grimm/Hendricks, [sP]

Strop, Parker, Russell/Wright, Rosscup/Rusin, Rondon, Grimm/Hendricks/Arrieta, Vizcaino/Ramirez/etc

 

Back of the envelope that comes to under 65 million for 21 roster spots, and under 65 for 22 assuming that the remaining infield opening isn't an expenditure beyond the minimum. If you're like me and think there's no reason they don't have the freedom to go to 100 million, that certainly leaves room for an impact SP and impact OF, at which point you're basically a projected .500 team, maybe more depending on the improvement from the position players/Samardzija.

[Sammy Sofa]

I can see a Homer Bailey signing next offseason, along with a 40-50 mill expenditure on an IFA that's unknown at this point. Something along those lines. But it IS dependent on how Castro bounces back and how Javy and KB look.

 

I find it completely laughable though, that anyone thinks we're sitting on gobs of money and just not spending it. They can't even live up to their Arizona complex and build around it, as they were supposed to, after getting the entire project funded by others.

 

I really don't think that Arizona thing is a money issue.

 

Then what? They negotiated in bad faith and never planned on building anything?

 

They've got a pretty long list of money issues that somehow aren't money issues.

[treebird]

I can see a Homer Bailey signing next offseason, along with a 40-50 mill expenditure on an IFA that's unknown at this point. Something along those lines. But it IS dependent on how Castro bounces back and how Javy and KB look.

 

I find it completely laughable though, that anyone thinks we're sitting on gobs of money and just not spending it. They can't even live up to their Arizona complex and build around it, as they were supposed to, after getting the entire project funded by others.

 

I really don't think that Arizona thing is a money issue.

 

Then what? They negotiated in bad faith and never planned on building anything?

 

They've got a pretty long list of money issues that somehow aren't money issues.

 

i don't know how this works with the actual timeline, but i like to think they negotiated the deal with mesa in the wake of their failure to get money from the city of chicago to upgrade wrigley. just ricketts sitting at his desk, screaming at kenney "FIND ME A CITY TO [expletive] OVER."

[Sammy Sofa]

And it's a lopsided desk from Ikea that's only half finished after he got frustrated and gave up.

[treebird]

And it's a lopsided desk from Ikea that's only half finished after he got frustrated and gave up.

 

"WHAT DO YOU MEAN I CAN'T RETURN THINGS I BOUGHT FROM THE AS-IS SECTION?"

 

slams down phone

 

desk explodes

 

$37.50 is deducted from the baseball budget

[Ryne Ween]

And he has a big cake under the desk and he slowly squishes the cake with his feet all day.

[Sammy Sofa]

And it's a lopsided desk from Ikea that's only half finished after he got frustrated and gave up.

 

"WHAT DO YOU MEAN I CAN'T RETURN THINGS I BOUGHT FROM THE AS-IS SECTION?"

 

slams down phone

 

desk explodes

 

$37.50 is deducted from the baseball budget

 

He's got a set up under his desk for napping like George had.

 

Except he lives there.

[Ryne Ween]

and he draws pictures of things while he sits in the desk and he eats the paper if anybody comes close.

[KingCubsFan]

When the team wins, attendance rises. Plain and simple. It's that way for every team in every sport. Unless it's basketball, attendance will not rise long-term due to one player. Focus on creating a long-term winning product, and higher attendance will be a byproduct.

 

And they will almost certainly have to spend money on free agents to become a winning team, even with this historically awesome collection of young talent.

Completely agree. But the focus should only be on spending money to get players that will help the team win, not to spend on certain players that the front office feels will generate fan interest.

[Ryne Ween]

So you are firmly against an Eddie Gaedel signing.

[jersey cubs fan]

But the focus should only be on spending money to get players that will help the team win,

 

Such a contrarian.

[Guest]

But the focus should only be on spending money to get players that will help the team win,

 

Such a contrarian.

 

rofl