Star players and how they are acquired

[davearm2]

Actively trying to lose?!? Seriously? Just stop.

 

They aren't actively trying to win yet, that's for certain.

 

They're not placing 2012 ahead of the long term, which is the only thing I think you can say with any degree of certainty right now.

 

Saying the FO is actively trying to lose in 2012 is ludicrous.

 

They have not yet done anything to make the team better in 2012. That can be said with certainty. Not doing anything to improve a bad team make not be actively trying to lose, but if you aren't doing anything to try and get better, it's the same damn thing. There is nothing ludicrous about being upset at what they are currently putting out there for 2012.

Your anger is misplaced. This season wasn't going to be saved by a few big-ticket free agent signings.

 

If anything, be mad at the folks that created this mess, not the ones doing what's necessary to clean it up.

[davearm2]

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

Luckily we're not talking about a diner, because you can build a quality organization in the future while still trying in the present. There is no need to punt 2012 no matter how hard davearm works to convince you people otherwise.

 

I seem to recall a lot of excitement about this offseason on this site. Money off the books and the Cubs would be players in the big free agent sweepstakes. I am getting old so maybe my memory isn't very good. Am I remembering wrong?

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

I'd choose a much different word than "zombies" to describe folks that think it would be foolish to hand out the contract Pujols got, or the one Fielder is asking for.

[SouthSideRyan]

I was using bWAR because fangraphs tends to slow up my work computer, but bWAR certainly tells a different story, with a 1.5 WAR difference between the 2 leading into last year (even using your timeframe which, obviously, is ridiculously favorable to Pena with a 4.5 advantage in 2007, which really has little predictive value at this point)

 

I want to spend money on a real 1B since we have none, and the other options suck out loud. I don't see Jackson settling for 3/36. I don't see the point in signing Kuroda for 2/25 when we're not going to try for the first year. We're actively trying to lose this season and I'm [expletive] pissed about it.

i don't really know why; it'd make you feel better if we unintentionally had a lousy season?

 

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

THIS IS WAR PEACOCK

[pccubfan]

Actively trying to lose?!? Seriously? Just stop.

 

They aren't actively trying to win yet, that's for certain.

 

They're not placing 2012 ahead of the long term, which is the only thing I think you can say with any degree of certainty right now.

 

Saying the FO is actively trying to lose in 2012 is ludicrous.

 

They have not yet done anything to make the team better in 2012. That can be said with certainty. Not doing anything to improve a bad team make not be actively trying to lose, but if you aren't doing anything to try and get better, it's the same damn thing. There is nothing ludicrous about being upset at what they are currently putting out there for 2012.

Your anger is misplaced. This season wasn't going to be saved by a few big-ticket free agent signings.

 

If anything, be mad at the folks that created this mess, not the ones doing what's necessary to clean it up.

 

Build the organization! But start now, don't put it off until next offseason to begin to acquire major league talent.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, that's what I need to work on, being mad at the job Jim Hendry did.

[pccubfan]

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

Luckily we're not talking about a diner, because you can build a quality organization in the future while still trying in the present. There is no need to punt 2012 no matter how hard davearm works to convince you people otherwise.

 

I seem to recall a lot of excitement about this offseason on this site. Money off the books and the Cubs would be players in the big free agent sweepstakes. I am getting old so maybe my memory isn't very good. Am I remembering wrong?

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

I'd choose a much different word than "zombies" to describe folks that think it would be foolish to hand out the contract Pujols got, or the one Fielder is asking for.

 

There is always going to be an excuse as to why you shouldn't sign a free agent. Again, don't sign one and see what happens. There aren't any guaranties that the farm is going to pan out either.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, that's what I need to work on, being mad at the job Jim Hendry did.

 

Exalt

Edited January 5, 2012 by SouthSideRyan

[CincyCubsFan]

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

Luckily we're not talking about a diner, because you can build a quality organization in the future while still trying in the present. There is no need to punt 2012 no matter how hard davearm works to convince you people otherwise.

 

I seem to recall a lot of excitement about this offseason on this site. Money off the books and the Cubs would be players in the big free agent sweepstakes. I am getting old so maybe my memory isn't very good. Am I remembering wrong?

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

 

Yea, the general thinking around here seemed to suddenly take a 180 at some point within the last two months. We went from being a Fielder & Darvish/Wilson away from winning the division, to being a fundamentally bad team that wasn't even worth improving with free agents, seemingly overnight

[XZero771679666304]

Actively trying to lose?!? Seriously? Just stop.

 

They aren't actively trying to win yet, that's for certain.

 

They're not placing 2012 ahead of the long term, which is the only thing I think you can say with any degree of certainty right now.

 

Saying the FO is actively trying to lose in 2012 is ludicrous.

 

They have not yet done anything to make the team better in 2012. That can be said with certainty. Not doing anything to improve a bad team make not be actively trying to lose, but if you aren't doing anything to try and get better, it's the same damn thing. There is nothing ludicrous about being upset at what they are currently putting out there for 2012.

 

For [expletive]'s sake.

 

Saying they are "actively trying to lose" implies they are trying the make the team as bad as possible. That's completely stupid. Utterly. Categorically.

 

Being upset and disappointed because we're going to have to endure a rebuilding year is fine. I feel the same way. Saying the FO is trying to make the team as bad as possible in 2012 is a whole other thing altogether. It would make you look like a crazy person.

 

They are putting the long term interests ahead of 2012. That is clear. You can look at the moves Theo and Jed didn't make (notably Pujols) and, if you're being objective, note several legitimate reasons why they weren't made.

 

And note the bolded in your own post and realize several more sensible pieces are still solidly in play.

[CincyCubsFan]

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

Luckily we're not talking about a diner, because you can build a quality organization in the future while still trying in the present. There is no need to punt 2012 no matter how hard davearm works to convince you people otherwise.

 

I seem to recall a lot of excitement about this offseason on this site. Money off the books and the Cubs would be players in the big free agent sweepstakes. I am getting old so maybe my memory isn't very good. Am I remembering wrong?

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

I'd choose a much different word than "zombies" to describe folks that think it would be foolish to hand out the contract Pujols got, or the one Fielder is asking for.

 

Hey Dave - No one, including Boras or even Fielder himself, believes that Fielder is going to get, or should get, a contract anywhere near what he is asking for. Please stop trotting out this tired old line page after page.

[Rob]

I was using bWAR because fangraphs tends to slow up my work computer, but bWAR certainly tells a different story, with a less than 1 WAR difference between the 2 leading into last year (even using your timeframe which, obviously, is ridiculously favorable to Pena.)

 

I want to spend money on a real 1B since we have none, and the other options suck out loud. I don't see Jackson settling for 3/36. I don't see the point in signing Kuroda for 2/25 when we're not going to try for the first year. We're actively trying to lose this season and I'm [expletive] pissed about it.

 

I didn't choose the timeframe to make a point... just to be as inclusive as possible without having to include years Pena didn't play. I trust neither of us is reading anything into that 6.0 WAR year. The difference between the WAR totals you see on fangraphs and b-r is basically a function of which defensive system you choose. In this particular case, Total Zone loves Overbay... giving him totals of +9, +16, +13, +7, and -2. UZR basically thinks he's a tick above average. Hence the disconnect. I seem to recall you being the type to dismiss large defensive numbers like that, but whatever. Split the difference or something. Pena is still a clearly better player.

 

So acquiring a young guy like Rizzo "sucks out loud"? He's not without some holes in his game, but he is a 21 year old with a good scouting pedigree and a solid track record. Guys like that have as good a chance to turn into franchise cornerstones as anybody.

 

Jackson may get more than 3/36, but he's not getting much more than that. Maybe 4/50 if a team goes crazy. But that would still fit.

 

Kuroda is a solid pitcher who can help keep the team respectable next season and contribute to a potential contender in 2013. Should the Cubs front office feel they will not compete in 2013 for whatever reason (Castro gets hit by a bus or something), he would have excellent trade value. It's not something to build the franchise around, but it's another DeJesus type signing that makes us better with very little risk.

 

For the record. I'm not happy about punting on 2012 either. But I'm not about to get outraged over the front office refusing to sign contracts they feel are a mistake. When your team is as bad as the Cubs are right now, there are always going to be ways to spend your budget. And Fielder is no better or worse an option than many others... he's just an easy one to look at and say "hey, he kinda fits."

 

I'm willing to wait until the conclusion of this offseason before I grade it.

[Guest]

I fully admit that I selfishly wanted win now moves to be made, even at the expense of the long term to some degree.

 

 

At the same time, I fully understand and can accept that a lot of those moves would've hurt long term and that it's probably smarter to concede that, unless you can sign some of these other pieces that will both fit the long and short term plans, this will be a bad team and that I'd rather not waste a single resource on making a 75 win team an 81 win team (pulled these out of my ass, but you get the point) if it means ANY long term cost.

 

 

Another thing that would make me feel better about this year (assuming we don't go out and spend the money we think we have on guys like Soler, Cespedes, and/or Prince - on a reasonable deal) is if they are operating on some sort of multi-year budget and money saved this year is money that can and will be spent in the future. If it just goes back into their pockets and stays there, that would be shitty.

 

Edit - I realize I'm speaking almost entirely in generalities so please don't try to pick this apart. This is my reasoning for having made peace with sucking next year. Hopefully we'll at least have some young fun players to watch, be it at the major league level or keeping an eye on them on the farm.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Unless you think getting rid of Zambrano's attitude will magically make players play better (which I'm pretty sure some people think).

I like how you spelled Kaplan.

[XZero771679666304]

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

 

Where is anyone make such a general claim? I said spending 10/265 on Pujols would have been foolish, because it was. I've been saying that a 10 year deal was too much since talks with the Cards broke down in February and people here started entertaining the possibility of signing him. It became and even riskier proposition after the year he had.

 

Apparently any semblance of fiscal restraint constitutes being unwilling to spend.

[jersey cubs fan]

Saying they are "actively trying to lose" implies they are trying the make the team as bad as possible. That's completely stupid. Utterly. Categorically.

 

Choosing to actively avoid making a bad team better is essentially actively choosing to be bad.

 

 

Also, avoiding all free agents is stupid.

[jersey cubs fan]

Another thing that would make me feel better about this year (assuming we don't go out and spend the money we think we have on guys like Soler, Cespedes, and/or Prince - on a reasonable deal) is if they are operating on some sort of multi-year budget and money saved this year is money that can and will be spent in the future. If it just goes back into their pockets and stays there, that would be [expletive].

 

How are they going to pull that off? After this year you can no longer spend huge on prospects. The baseball budget is set year by year. You can't go out and spend an extra $50m above that budget one season after not spending it, because the next year you are going to be screwed trying to get back down to your real budget. Unless there's another Darvish on the horizon, there is nothing to use the carryover money on from a baseball standpoint.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

 

Where is anyone make such a general claim?

 

People have been adament in their stance on the matter, and the movement is growing.

[JoshiQ]

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

 

Where is anyone make such a general claim?

 

People have been adament in their stance on the matter, and the movement is growing.

 

Well, they are okay with moves below 10 million. Anything more than that and the price is too high and endangers the future.

[Rob]

We're actively trying to lose this season and I'm [expletive] pissed about it.

 

Hyperbolic BS.

 

How? It's a crappy team that had addressable needs that haven't been addressed.

 

Really?

 

One of the biggest organizational issues the Cubs had was a complete and utter lack of young starting pitching. We spent large chunks of last season with Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz in our damn rotation. And that was only going to get worse with Z and Dempster's contracts running out after 2012. There weren't any remotely ready guys to step into the rotation to fill those holes. In the last month we've acquired two young starting pitchers who can stay in the rotation for a very long time.

 

The organization also had a complete lack of major league OF options. Brett Jackson may have been ready to replace Marlon Byrd's expiring contract, but Tyler Colvin was being relied upon as our RF. And there was no suitable 4th OF option in-house (Campana is a 5th OF who isn't a viable pinch hitting candidate). Now David DeJesus is plugging the hole in RF and we have a potential starting caliber OF in Sappelt to back up Soriano every time he tweaks his hamstrings.

 

They're addressing significant organizational needs. And they'll address more before the offseason is over.

[KingCubsFan]

you can't break an omelette without breaking some eggs, any good cook will tell you that

 

Luckily we're not talking about a diner, because you can build a quality organization in the future while still trying in the present. There is no need to punt 2012 no matter how hard davearm works to convince you people otherwise.

 

I seem to recall a lot of excitement about this offseason on this site. Money off the books and the Cubs would be players in the big free agent sweepstakes. I am getting old so maybe my memory isn't very good. Am I remembering wrong?

 

One by one the zombies have been convincing themselves that spending money on baseball players is foolish.

 

Yea, the general thinking around here seemed to suddenly take a 180 at some point within the last two months. We went from being a Fielder & Darvish/Wilson away from winning the division, to being a fundamentally bad team that wasn't even worth improving with free agents, seemingly overnight

There have been a fair amount of people who have been saying for some time that this team was fundamentally flawed, and that it probably wasn't worth throwing $40-60 million per year at two players that could hinder flexibility in the future when the 2012 team would have to stretch for mediocrity anyways even with those players. Blowing 25-40% of your payroll over the next 5 or so years on guys with the flaws of Fielder, Pujols, Wilson and Darvish isn't the no-brainer this board makes it out to be.

 

For years, this board criticized Hendry and the whole organization for a lack of vision and long-term plan. Yet, here we are, with a well-accomplished front office with a long-term plan supported by ownership, and most people are bitching about the fact that we'll probably suck in 2012. We've sucked for 3 years, and anyone with half a brain knew, deep down, that we probably wouldn't be very good for at least 2 of those years. At least now there's some hope that guys like Stewart and Wood can become long-term solutions, and that our front office won't be scrambling for stopgaps to try and keep their jobs.

[XZero771679666304]

Saying they are "actively trying to lose" implies they are trying the make the team as bad as possible. That's completely stupid. Utterly. Categorically.

 

Choosing to actively avoid making a bad team better is essentially actively choosing to be bad.

 

 

Also, avoiding all free agents is stupid.

 

Choosing not to make poor long term decisions (Pujols and Ramirez) to salvage 2012 is sabotaging the team?

 

And did you read the rest of that post, or are you just ignoring it? And "ignoring" an overpriced FA constitutes a policy of ignoring FA?

 

Good to know.

 

And for the 206th time, Fielder, the Cubans and others are still in play.

[pccubfan]

I fully admit that I selfishly wanted win now moves to be made, even at the expense of the long term to some degree.

 

 

At the same time, I fully understand and can accept that a lot of those moves would've hurt long term and that it's probably smarter to concede that, unless you can sign some of these other pieces that will both fit the long and short term plans, this will be a bad team and that I'd rather not waste a single resource on making a 75 win team an 81 win team (pulled these out of my ass, but you get the point) if it means ANY long term cost.

 

 

Another thing that would make me feel better about this year (assuming we don't go out and spend the money we think we have on guys like Soler, Cespedes, and/or Prince - on a reasonable deal) is if they are operating on some sort of multi-year budget and money saved this year is money that can and will be spent in the future. If it just goes back into their pockets and stays there, that would be [expletive].

 

Edit - I realize I'm speaking almost entirely in generalities so please don't try to pick this apart. This is my reasoning for having made peace with sucking next year. Hopefully we'll at least have some young fun players to watch, be it at the major league level or keeping an eye on them on the farm.

 

To a point I agree with you. I didn't want them over-extending to sign three or four guys this year. But I do want them to take some steps forward in building this team this offseason. I understand that most free agents are going to perform at a level below their salary in the latter years of their contract. However, I also understand that Theo and Hoyer are supposed to be brilliant baseball men who can find the team cheap production to soften the blow of the free agent that isn't earning his way anymore. I just want to see strides made this offseason to improve the team. If Volstad and Stewart prove to be very useful, I'll happily admit to being wrong. Just not seeing a lot to get excited about on this roster.

[Guest]

Another thing that would make me feel better about this year (assuming we don't go out and spend the money we think we have on guys like Soler, Cespedes, and/or Prince - on a reasonable deal) is if they are operating on some sort of multi-year budget and money saved this year is money that can and will be spent in the future. If it just goes back into their pockets and stays there, that would be [expletive].

 

How are they going to pull that off? After this year you can no longer spend huge on prospects. The baseball budget is set year by year. You can't go out and spend an extra $50m above that budget one season after not spending it, because the next year you are going to be screwed trying to get back down to your real budget. Unless there's another Darvish on the horizon, there is nothing to use the carryover money on from a baseball standpoint.

 

 

$50M in, say, a 5 year budget amounts to one pretty decently sized contract on a per year basis after that, though.

[XZero771679666304]

[

They're addressing significant organizational needs. And they'll address more before the offseason is over.

 

BUT THEY DIDN'T SIGN PUJOLS OR GIVE ARAM 3 YEARS! THEY'RE TRYING TO MAKE THE TEAM WORSE, CAN'T YOU SEE IT?!?

[davell]

I honestly think everyone here sees both sides of this. If we had gone out, won the posting for Darvish, let's say 55 mill, gave him the 5/75 he wants, it's basically 26 mill per year. Say we signed Prince for 6/150 with 15 mill in the 1st year. Did everything else we've done to date and that's it for the entire offseason. Other than spending 4 or 5 mill on IFA's. Our payroll would be 140ish, which appears to fit in the baseball budget, by everything we've read. Is this a contender? I say yes. Is it a flat out juggernaut? No. But, you'd still have 40 mill more coming off again next year, to turn it into one. Would it be sustainable, if you did it that way? With the guys we have running things, I truly think it would be...........this isn't the road we've taken though. We decided to evidently let ALL the bad money go away before respending. I see both sides, I really do. All I want now, is to go all the way, with the rebuild. Wasn't my first choice, but I don't want to halfass anything. If we're tearing it down, tear away. It sucks we'll be also-rans for 2012, probably 2013, and possibly even 2014. If this is the way we're going, I want an absolute insane amount of cash thrown towards IFA's. And I want Garza, Byrd, Soriano, Soto, and Marmol all dealt by midseason. But, it's not my first choice, as I really thought adding 2 bigtime guys, doing little else, would be enough to contend, not hurt things longterm, and allow us to build for the future as well.