Tigers sign Prince - 9/214 - Heyman

[jersey cubs fan]

he's been worth 67 million over the last 3 years in terms of real production. if he duplicates that, even with a down year over the next 4, the 2-3 extra million per we needed to get him signed was worth the investment.

 

I don't follow your math here. If he repeats his next 3 years twice, which you acknowledge is super optimistic, we're looking at overpaying by 25 million or so. Add in the down year like you mention, and any type of decline for the last year or two of his contract, and we're probably looking at overpaying by closer to 50 million. I just don't know if Fielder's star is bright enough for that type of gamble.

 

Why is it super optimistic that he repeats his age 25-27 seasons in his age 28-30 seasons?

[Guest]

he's been worth 67 million over the last 3 years in terms of real production. if he duplicates that, even with a down year over the next 4, the 2-3 extra million per we needed to get him signed was worth the investment.

 

I don't follow your math here. If he repeats his next 3 years twice, which you acknowledge is super optimistic, we're looking at overpaying by 25 million or so. Add in the down year like you mention, and any type of decline for the last year or two of his contract, and we're probably looking at overpaying by closer to 50 million. I just don't know if Fielder's star is bright enough for that type of gamble.

 

Why is it super optimistic that he repeats his age 25-27 seasons in his age 28-30 seasons?

 

Twice. If he repeates 25-27 from 28-32, then he'd have produced 134 million in value.

[seanimal]

Sotoian

 

gotta break up those vowels. how about "sotonian", like "draconian"? As in, "his roller-coaster production year-to-year is downright sotonian!"

[Tracer Bullet]

He's been rather Sotoian in alternating his best years with his worst, which was really what I was getting at. The fact that his WAR was as low as 1.7 in 2008 doesn't worry me as much as the fact that he hasn't exceeded 4 WAR(which falls 5 million short of a 25M AAV) with regularity.

 

Come on now, his worst season in the last three is equivalent to Soto's best year ever. And Prince is younger. Soto made a big splash in year one, and hasn't been back to that level since. Prince was 2 years younger when he made a bigger splash, and he's exceeded that level twice since.

 

He's not saying his value is similar to Soto's. He's saying his production has been a roller coaster, as Soto's has. It's a perfectly fair comparison for that point.

 

ETA: sotonian is the best word I've heard all day.

[imb]

you can just say farnsworthian

[Tracer Bullet]

he's been worth 67 million over the last 3 years in terms of real production. if he duplicates that, even with a down year over the next 4, the 2-3 extra million per we needed to get him signed was worth the investment.

 

I don't follow your math here. If he repeats his next 3 years twice, which you acknowledge is super optimistic, we're looking at overpaying by 25 million or so. Add in the down year like you mention, and any type of decline for the last year or two of his contract, and we're probably looking at overpaying by closer to 50 million. I just don't know if Fielder's star is bright enough for that type of gamble.

 

Why is it super optimistic that he repeats his age 25-27 seasons in his age 28-30 seasons?

 

Twice. If he repeates 25-27 from 28-32, then he'd have produced 134 million in value.

 

So best case is probably that we overpay by $16m (using the $25m/6 numbers). Yeah, I don't think Prince is a safe enough bet for that.

[El Duderino]

yeah I was gonna say, farnsworth started the whole awesome one year/terrible the next alternating thing.

[Little Slide Rooter]

yeah I was gonna say, farnsworth started the whole awesome one year/terrible the next alternating thing.

 

Yeah, but he did get us our 3rd baseman of the future, assuming we're ready to give up on David Kelton.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

He's not saying his value is similar to Soto's. He's saying his production has been a roller coaster, as Soto's has. It's a perfectly fair comparison for that point.

 

ETA: sotonian is the best word I've heard all day.

 

Except one is a roller coast and the other is a ferris wheel. Fielder produced in his "down" year. Comparing age 23-26 seasons with age 28 seasons also isn't fair. Not to mention fielder putting in full seasons to soto playing much less. Fielder has varied from ver goo to great. Insinuating that he's as unreliable as soto or terribly inconsistent just doesn't hold up.

[Sammy Sofa]

I actually love the term "ver goo" and insist it become a real thing.

[Bull]

I actually love the term "ver goo" and insist it become a real thing.

seconded.

 

reminds me of burgoo.

[Guest]

He was 13th among first basemen in WAR in 2010, 17th in 2008. That's a lot of inconsistency for a guy who will require well over 20 million AAV.

[Rob]

 

He's not saying his value is similar to Soto's. He's saying his production has been a roller coaster, as Soto's has. It's a perfectly fair comparison for that point.

 

ETA: sotonian is the best word I've heard all day.

 

Except one is a roller coast and the other is a ferris wheel. Fielder produced in his "down" year. Comparing age 23-26 seasons with age 28 seasons also isn't fair. Not to mention fielder putting in full seasons to soto playing much less. Fielder has varied from ver goo to great. Insinuating that he's as unreliable as soto or terribly inconsistent just doesn't hold up.

 

Prince has absolutely not "varied from ver goo to great." [sic]

 

1.3

5.1

1.7

6.4

3.4

5.5

 

~2.0 is an average position player. Fielder isn't exactly putting up the types of numbers that justify throwing caution to the wind. He's can be (and has been) a below average starter. Since I know you'll dismiss those first three years, you'd be more accurate in saying he's varied from above average to all-star, but not MVP level.

 

And just because I find this interesting... in each of the last three seasons (which includes Fielder's two best), Fielder has been out-WAR'd by Ben Zobrist. Worth thinking about for a moment...

[Tracer Bullet]

 

He's not saying his value is similar to Soto's. He's saying his production has been a roller coaster, as Soto's has. It's a perfectly fair comparison for that point.

 

ETA: sotonian is the best word I've heard all day.

 

Except one is a roller coast and the other is a ferris wheel. Fielder produced in his "down" year. Comparing age 23-26 seasons with age 28 seasons also isn't fair. Not to mention fielder putting in full seasons to soto playing much less. Fielder has varied from ver goo to great. Insinuating that he's as unreliable as soto or terribly inconsistent just doesn't hold up.

 

Most of this just isn't true.

[Guest]

yeah I was gonna say, farnsworth started the whole awesome one year/terrible the next alternating thing.

 

Steve Trachsel says what's up.

[Brian]

Melvin says that signing Aramis officially takes them out of Prince.... Theo lets get this done.

[Guest]

Rob and TT are two of the posters whose opinions on baseball I respect most on here...

 

I already had my reservations about Prince initially...and they're making a compelling case based on a lot of the same things I was worried about.

 

Not even sure what I want at this point, outside of Prince on a cheaper than expected (which isn't likely) contract.

 

But if we don't get him, there aren't a ton of other options down the line...and we're also likely to be more horrible than I can imagine next year.

[ScrubMD]

you can just say farnsworthian

 

Farnsworth reminds me of Jeff Francoeur, so here's a story:

 

I was in a collector's store this weekend and they were charging $20 more for a Jeff Francoeur autographed ball than an Andre Dawson signed ball. I'm going to start sending the owner bi-daily death threats.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Melvin says that signing Aramis officially takes them out of Prince.... Theo lets get this done.

 

Brewers were already long shot to re sign Fielder and have little to do with The Cubs prospects of signing him. I believe their final offer was 6/120. Even if he would have eventually accepted do to lack of better offers, with K Rod accepting arbitration and now the Aramis contract that must be off the table. Personally I think thats a fair offer. I could see The Cubs offering a higher dollar amount but I don't know if we'll go any higher in terms of years.

[treebird]

you can just say farnsworthian

 

trachselvanian

[Little Slide Rooter]

Rob and TT are two of the posters whose opinions on baseball I respect most on here...

 

I already had my reservations about Prince initially...and they're making a compelling case based on a lot of the same things I was worried about.

 

Not even sure what I want at this point, outside of Prince on a cheaper than expected (which isn't likely) contract.

 

But if we don't get him, there aren't a ton of other options down the line...and we're also likely to be more horrible than I can imagine next year.

 

I agree with you to an extent, but this team is at the point where they need an elite bat or 2 to have any hopes for the next 3-4 years. I like the idea of taking chances on the Ian Stewarts and Daric Bartons of the world, but at some,point you need a solid foundation to build upon. Our farm system is almost built to produce role players to be used as pieces to build around bigger guys to who would be aquired through trade or free agency. If we dont end up paying for Fielder, we'll have to pay for somebody, and I don't think that another Prince Fielde and certainly not another Albert Pujols will be hitting the market anybtime soon. If they do, they'll be just as expensive and there will be reasons not to give them what they're expected to get, however, there will always be someone willing to give it to them. Unless we want to watch Starlin Castro and Brett Jackson surrounded by various incarnations of Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus, and Jeff Baker until we can finally produce our own superstars we'll need to start adding some top players, and those aren't just going to fall into our lap for nothing.

[dew1679666265]

Here's a question and one I ask honestly and not just to counter anti-Prince sentiments:

 

After passing on Dunn last year and Pujols and Prince this year, what good (key word) first base options are left out there for us to pursue? I've seen a bunch of options thrown around, but most all of them range from dreadful (LaHair) to barely mediocre (Daric Barton). The only options I can think of that I'd describe as better than mediocre are Morales (if healthy) and Smoak (only if Prince signs with the Mariners).

 

Bringing Pena back wouldn't be an awful move, if he wasn't looking for a multi-year deal. I have no interest in giving up any talent for Loney and I don't think Trumbo will be able to avoid making outs. Barton would be a passable option if we plan on taking the rebuilding for 3-5 years route, but a guy who probably won't slug over .400 isn't an option for a team hoping to contend. Kotchman is an older, more expensive Barton (and probably not as good), and LaHair as the starting first baseman would send TT over the edge. In the minors we have no ML-quality first basemen until you get to Vogelbach.

 

Am I missing any options or underrating a guy like Barton? We seem to be in a position of two extremes here - either we get very good production out of first, but pay too much for it or we get barely better than replacement level production out of first.

[davell]

If we miss out on Prince, the only possible "try and win now anyway" guy is Morales, if he's healthy. You could go add Darvish and Cespedes and possibly be the favorites in the division. But Morales would have to hold up and Cespedes would have to be solid in year 1 too. So, still tons of questions. If we miss on Darvish and Fielder though, it may be time to trade Garza and have a rebuild season, hope some guys become assets and go from there. But, I doubt we miss on one of them anyway.

[Rob]

Here's a question and one I ask honestly and not just to counter anti-Prince sentiments:

 

After passing on Dunn last year and Pujols and Prince this year, what good (key word) first base options are left out there for us to pursue? I've seen a bunch of options thrown around, but most all of them range from dreadful (LaHair) to barely mediocre (Daric Barton). The only options I can think of that I'd describe as better than mediocre are Morales (if healthy) and Smoak (only if Prince signs with the Mariners).

 

Bringing Pena back wouldn't be an awful move, if he wasn't looking for a multi-year deal. I have no interest in giving up any talent for Loney and I don't think Trumbo will be able to avoid making outs. Barton would be a passable option if we plan on taking the rebuilding for 3-5 years route, but a guy who probably won't slug over .400 isn't an option for a team hoping to contend. Kotchman is an older, more expensive Barton (and probably not as good), and LaHair as the starting first baseman would send TT over the edge. In the minors we have no ML-quality first basemen until you get to Vogelbach.

 

Am I missing any options or underrating a guy like Barton? We seem to be in a position of two extremes here - either we get very good production out of first, but pay too much for it or we get barely better than replacement level production out of first.

 

There are some young options if you're looking a bit more long term. They've all got their own unique upsides and downsides, but I wouldn't be terribly upset if we went with any of them. (Sanchez and Smoak are likely only available if their team ends up with Fielder)

 

Logan Morrison

Gaby Sanchez

Justin Smoak

Ike Davis

Kyle Blanks

Mark Trumbo*

Daric Barton

Travis Snider

 

There's also a slightly older tier that has some pretty major power, but has major questions too (health/defense/approach). They're not under control all that long and so are likely to come cheaper.

 

Kendrys Morales

Mark Reynolds

Adam Lind

 

Then there's the obvious "placeholder" group that can provide decent production for a year or two until we figure out something better to do at 1B.

 

Carlos Pena

Michael Cuddyer

Carlos Lee

 

After that point, it gets a little messy. But there's a host of other teams guys who haven't really had a good chance yet or blew it in a short chance (Brett Wallace, Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Lars Anderson, David Cooper, etc...) There's also the "shitty retreads" group with guys like Brad Hawpe and James Loney... but it's obvious there's enough options there's no reason to go into these groups unless a scout was visited by an angel who told him David Ortiz was reborn into Chris Davis's body.

 

*I would be upset with Trumbo. He sucks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The difference between Prince and all of the other options is that he is that youn player who can help us win now and in the future. Right now, aside from Castro our roster is full of 6-8 hitters. This is something that needs to be fixed. Of the guys mentioned by Rob, LoMo and Smoak have the best potential and Morales I the closest thing to someone who could help us win now. If we could get one of them and Cespedes, assuming he's ready to contribute in the next year or 2, it could work. All of the other options are either very risky for the young guys and for the older placeholders not worth spending the money on.

 

I guess what it comes down to is that I understand the concerns about Fielders build and I understood the questions about Pujols age, but if we're going to operate like a big market team we can't jut sit around and wait for that perfect 27 year old specimen to pop up and keep picking up placeholders and high ceiling guys in between. Our farm system currently doesn't have anything with elite potential so eventually we'll have to start spending and/or trading and this is the time to start, especially when we can fill an existing hole.