Stewart/Dewitt swap?

[mul21]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.

 

You do realize some guys can maintain a much higher than "average" babip, right? The LD% + .120 or .140 or whatever you use can't be universally applied to everybody. Doesn't work that way. Yes, a large part of players will fall into the bell shaped part of the curve, but you've got slow guys and fast guys and other strange cases who are clear outliers. You still haven't said how you know Headley isn't an outlier.

[javy knows my name]

So Headley's performance at every other park over 1000+ PAs is the outlier, and will regress to his performance in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the game, which is the expected norm.

 

This really should have ended the conversation. There have been some really horrible analyses of park factors here recently.

[sneakypower]

hey guys i corrected Joey Votto's anomalous babip and hr/fb rates to average and learned that he actually should have a .730 ops

[Yeti]

I did use a specific methodology, but it is true I didn't explain it fully because it'd be exceedingly boring and tedious. If you'd like me to, I would be happy to.

oh please please please!!!

[davearm2]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

[XZero771679666304]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

 

 

BTW - him having a higher than average (of all players) BABIP is not necessarily an indication of good luck.

 

This is the important part. If we were talking about 300-500 ABs, that's be one thing. But we're talking about 265 games and 1100+ PA. That is a pretty big sample size, certainly large enough to think that it may not an anomaly.

[javy knows my name]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

 

I'm going to kill myself

[Guest]

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

 

 

Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo?

[davearm2]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.

 

You do realize some guys can maintain a much higher than "average" babip, right? The LD% + .120 or .140 or whatever you use can't be universally applied to everybody. Doesn't work that way. Yes, a large part of players will fall into the bell shaped part of the curve, but you've got slow guys and fast guys and other strange cases who are clear outliers. You still haven't said how you know Headley isn't an outlier.

Headley is neither slow nor fast, so we should expect him to be in the fat part of the bell curve.

[mul21]

Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data.

 

That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky.

 

Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly?

Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.

 

You do realize some guys can maintain a much higher than "average" babip, right? The LD% + .120 or .140 or whatever you use can't be universally applied to everybody. Doesn't work that way. Yes, a large part of players will fall into the bell shaped part of the curve, but you've got slow guys and fast guys and other strange cases who are clear outliers. You still haven't said how you know Headley isn't an outlier.

Headley is neither slow nor fast, so we should expect him to be in the fat part of the bell curve.

 

Reading is fundamental.

[davearm2]

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

 

 

Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo?

I thought we agreed average BABIP isn't relevant.

 

Based on LD%, Headley is dramatically under-performing his expected BABIP at home, and dramatically over-performing on the road.

 

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Why isn't Headley using his unique skills that allow him to outperform his expected BABIP on the road when playing at home? That discrepancy can't be all park factor.

[treebird]

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

 

 

Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo?

I thought we agreed average BABIP isn't relevant.

 

Based on LD%, Headley is dramatically under-performing his expected BABIP at home, and dramatically over-performing on the road.

 

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Why isn't Headley using his unique skills that allow him to outperform his expected BABIP on the road when playing at home? That discrepancy can't be all park factor.

 

stop dilly dallying and tell us your secret method for fixing the numbers

[davearm2]

You do realize some guys can maintain a much higher than "average" babip, right? The LD% + .120 or .140 or whatever you use can't be universally applied to everybody. Doesn't work that way. Yes, a large part of players will fall into the bell shaped part of the curve, but you've got slow guys and fast guys and other strange cases who are clear outliers. You still haven't said how you know Headley isn't an outlier.

Headley is neither slow nor fast, so we should expect him to be in the fat part of the bell curve.

 

Reading is fundamental.

Outliers are expected to revert to the mean.

 

There isn't anything specific to Headley's skillset that would cause us to expect him to outperform the LD% + .140 rule going forward. Ichiro, yes. Headley, no.

[SABR Gamer]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

*Slow clap*

 

Oh, but he'll say you can't read because he DOES want the Cubs to sign truly elite players to affordable deals when the time is just right. Y'know, those guys.

[Yeti]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

but i want to hear more about his scientific methodology!

[Guest]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

[davearm2]

 

Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys.

No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.

 

 

Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo?

I thought we agreed average BABIP isn't relevant.

 

Based on LD%, Headley is dramatically under-performing his expected BABIP at home, and dramatically over-performing on the road.

 

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Why isn't Headley using his unique skills that allow him to outperform his expected BABIP on the road when playing at home? That discrepancy can't be all park factor.

 

stop dilly dallying and tell us your secret method for fixing the numbers

I added or subtracted hits as needed to hit the expected BABIP target (.310, .320, .334 etc), keeping ABs constant.

 

I adjusted 2bs and 3bs as needed to keep their percentage of total hits constant.

 

I did this separately to the home and road splits.

 

Then I added the adjusted home and road numbers together to compute the expected career line.

[SABR Gamer]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

*Slow clap*

 

Oh, but he'll say you can't read because he DOES want the Cubs to sign truly elite players to affordable deals when the time is just right. Y'know, those guys.

 

I am already expecting him to stop reading my post after the first line, only respond to my sarcasm (barely), and ignore the rest of my post.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

[SABR Gamer]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted.

 

 

His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted?

[davearm2]

Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342

Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328

 

Actual BABIP: .339

What do you think Headley's OPS will be if he's traded to the Cubs?

 

Just give me a number. Explain how you got there if you wish.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Oh look another Davearm vs. the world thread. I figure it will be locked by lunchtime.

[Vanilla Ice]

I'd love to hear Rob's take on this because while dave's thought process is overly simplistic, I get the feeling that many people in this thread are being the same way

[davearm2]

Why do you all keep arguing with Dave? It's clear he wants to have a 10 dollar payroll, keep all of our prospects and wait til we have our projected 2020 Baseball America lineup to compete. Nobody is worth trading for or signing. I have never seen a more stubborn, shortsighted person. Man, just give it up. You make points and then you don't explain them when people bring up valid flaws in your reasoning and then get mad at everyone saying they aren't reading you correctly. It's getting so old and boring. Say something productive please, and actually address points that people make without resorting to nonsensical argument manipulation.

 

*Slow clap*

 

Oh, but he'll say you can't read because he DOES want the Cubs to sign truly elite players to affordable deals when the time is just right. Y'know, those guys.

 

I am already expecting him to stop reading my post after the first line, only respond to my sarcasm (barely), and ignore the rest of my post.

You've given me nothing to respond to.

 

I've explained my points, and addressed counterpoints that people have made, throughout this thread.

Edited December 5, 2011 by davearm2