CONFIRMED: CUBS GET SOLER!!! 9yrs/30 mill

[XZero771679666304]

Yeah, B.J. Upton is totally underrated.

 

Are you kidding me? He's overrated, still coasting on his 2007 rep, and some team is going to give him far more than he's worth.

I think it depends on who you talk to. He's a pretty polarizing player as far as perception goes. I'd be really happy to have him on the team, but I think he'll end up getting overpaid by someone.

 

He is a great defensive CF and hits a fair number of homers, but he doesn't get on base well and gets caught stealing way too much.

 

He'd be great as a CF for a reasonable price, but his bat won't play at the corners, Jackson is coming and some team is going to pay Upton a ton. I can't think of a good reason the Cubs would want to get in on that.

[dew1679666265]

He is a great defensive CF and hits a fair number of homers, but he doesn't get on base well and gets caught stealing way too much.

 

He'd be great as a CF for a reasonable price, but his bat won't play at the corners, Jackson is coming and some team is going to pay Upton a ton. I can't think of a good reason the Cubs would want to get in on that.

 

Upton is actually a pretty patient hitter, his OBP has just been getting dragged down by poor batting averages. He had an .086 IsoD in 2007 (his best offensive year) and IsoDs of .072, .085, and .088 the past 3 seasons. If you could figure out a way to get that average up some, he'd be a really good OBP guy for you.

 

On that note, his BABIPs have seemed pretty low the past 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .327, but the past 3 seasons it's been .310, .304, and .298. My first thought was that he must be hitting the ball softer, but his LD% those seasons are right in line with his career 17.6% - 15.4 in 2009, 16.6 in 2010, and 18.3 in 2011. I'm not quite sure what to make of that. 2009 makes sense, but it seems like his numbers should have been better the past couple of years, it seems. Has he just gotten unlucky the past couple of years and is a candidate to turn it around, or at this point do we just assume he's going to be BABIP-unlucky for whatever reason?

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Yeah, B.J. Upton is totally underrated.

 

Are you kidding me? He's overrated, still coasting on his 2007 rep, and some team is going to give him far more than he's worth.

 

Yes, he looked like an elite talent in '07. Since then he's settled into being a 4 fWAR CF who can steal bases, hit for some pop, and play defense. Not sure how that's overrated, but maybe you just kinda remember him from '07, see he hasnt been quite as pretty since, and therefore must now overrated?

 

Not to mention he plays in a pretty crappy run scoring environment.

 

Also stealing bases at a 76% clip is within the range of fine. That plus he's signing as a CF, not a COF with whoever signs him.

[XZero771679666304]

Yeah, B.J. Upton is totally underrated.

 

Are you kidding me? He's overrated, still coasting on his 2007 rep, and some team is going to give him far more than he's worth.

 

Yes, he looked like an elite talent in '07. Since then he's settled into being a 4 fWAR CF who can steal bases, hit for some pop, and play defense. Not sure how that's overrated, but maybe you just kinda remember him from '07, see he hasnt been quite as pretty since, and therefore must now overrated?

 

Not to mention he plays in a pretty crappy run scoring environment.

 

Also stealing bases at a 76% clip is within the range of fine. That plus he's signing as a CF, not a COF with whoever signs him.

 

I'm not the only one out there who is calling him overrated. I've heard several statistical analysts call him such.

 

And he gets caught stealing so often, his running is actually a negative. Most years he gets caught about a third of the time he runs. That's really bad.

 

He's not a bad player, but he's going to get a contract that outstrips his value. And that being the case, why would we have interest when we have a similar player on the verge who will cost a fraction of what Upton will?

[XZero771679666304]

He is a great defensive CF and hits a fair number of homers, but he doesn't get on base well and gets caught stealing way too much.

 

He'd be great as a CF for a reasonable price, but his bat won't play at the corners, Jackson is coming and some team is going to pay Upton a ton. I can't think of a good reason the Cubs would want to get in on that.

 

Upton is actually a pretty patient hitter, his OBP has just been getting dragged down by poor batting averages. He had an .086 IsoD in 2007 (his best offensive year) and IsoDs of .072, .085, and .088 the past 3 seasons. If you could figure out a way to get that average up some, he'd be a really good OBP guy for you.

 

On that note, his BABIPs have seemed pretty low the past 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .327, but the past 3 seasons it's been .310, .304, and .298. My first thought was that he must be hitting the ball softer, but his LD% those seasons are right in line with his career 17.6% - 15.4 in 2009, 16.6 in 2010, and 18.3 in 2011. I'm not quite sure what to make of that. 2009 makes sense, but it seems like his numbers should have been better the past couple of years, it seems. Has he just gotten unlucky the past couple of years and is a candidate to turn it around, or at this point do we just assume he's going to be BABIP-unlucky for whatever reason?

 

He's clearly patient, just not enough to offset the low AVG. A guy like Adam Dunn (pre-2011) could get by hitting .230-.250 without having it impact his overall value because he walked a ton. Upton isn't quite there, and I'm not sure you can expect him to tack 20 or 30 points of average on at this point in his career.

[dew1679666265]

He's clearly patient, just not enough to offset the low AVG. A guy like Adam Dunn (pre-2011) could get by hitting .230-.250 without having it impact his overall value because he walked a ton. Upton isn't quite there, and I'm not sure you can expect him to tack 20 or 30 points of average on at this point in his career.

 

Depends on what's going on with his BABIP. If he's just going to be a BABIP-unlucky guy, then yeah he'll stay a little too low OBP type guy. But if there's some way to get the BABIP to match the LD%, that could make up the difference you need to get his OBP into a good level. And if his OBP can get into the .360 range, he becomes a borderline elite player.

 

I'm not sure you can get that BABIP up enough, though, since it's been low for a couple seasons now.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I know no one really gives a crap about home/road splits for the most part but this is interesting...Upton's career road OPS is .022 higher than his home OPS, and last year he OPS'd well over .800 in the road while he was sub-.700 at home. Just figured this was interesting 1. because the Trop is a dump and sucks to hit in and 2. he's one of the players who's vocalized that.

 

I don't really think he's a candidate to come here unless they traded Jackson to go out and pay for a new CF. OTOH I think the team who signs him will get a pleasant surprise offensively (not that he's a bad offensive player by any means).

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

I'm not the only one out there who is calling him overrated. I've heard several statistical analysts call him such.

 

And he gets caught stealing so often, his running is actually a negative. Most years he gets caught about a third of the time he runs. That's really bad.

 

He's not a bad player, but he's going to get a contract that outstrips his value. And that being the case, why would we have interest when we have a similar player on the verge who will cost a fraction of what Upton will?

 

Who?

 

He gets stealing at a 24% clip, which is borderline but not bad particularly since he's stealing 40+ bases a year. Fangraphs has him a positive base runner this whole time...

 

Not sure what kind of contract he'll sign at all precisely because he's such a polarizing talent. People see low batting average and high K's and run from there, especially since he came up with tons of hype and had such a great 2007. Personally I've seen him a ton and looked over the numbers and I see a multi-skilled CF who can provide some pop, play defense, steal bases, and has some patience. Seeing as he's still young (27 this year) I can see him having some strong offensive seasons moving forward outside of that park. I call him the new Mike Cameron..just a quietly solid above average CF with the body type/athleticism/youth to do it for a long time. Do think the shoulder f'd him up enough that there's no shot he becomes a high end player anymore.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm not the only one out there who is calling him overrated. I've heard several statistical analysts call him such.

 

And he gets caught stealing so often, his running is actually a negative. Most years he gets caught about a third of the time he runs. That's really bad.

 

He's not a bad player, but he's going to get a contract that outstrips his value. And that being the case, why would we have interest when we have a similar player on the verge who will cost a fraction of what Upton will?

 

Who?

 

He gets stealing at a 24% clip, which is borderline but not bad particularly since he's stealing 40+ bases a year. Fangraphs has him a positive base runner this whole time...

 

Not sure what kind of contract he'll sign at all precisely because he's such a polarizing talent. People see low batting average and high K's and run from there, especially since he came up with tons of hype and had such a great 2007. Personally I've seen him a ton and looked over the numbers and I see a multi-skilled CF who can provide some pop, play defense, steal bases, and has some patience. Seeing as he's still young (27 this year) I can see him having some strong offensive seasons moving forward outside of that park. I call him the new Mike Cameron..just a quietly solid above average CF with the body type/athleticism/youth to do it for a long time. Do think the shoulder f'd him up enough that there's no shot he becomes a high end player anymore.

 

24% isn't borderline. It's bad. 15-20% is about as high as you want to get before you reconsider stealing bases. Stealing 40 doesn't look too hot when you're getting caught 12-15 times. He had one year that was acceptable.

 

His stolen bases are not a check in the positive column for Upton, unless you're into counting stats above all else.

 

And I've heard a few analysts call him overrated. Brian Kenney did a segment on Clubhouse Confidential where he examined Upton and categorized him as an "average" player.

 

There are more, use google.

 

He is a polarizing player, but at this point I think he is what he is. I'm also convinced some team will give him 15-17MM per, which is just way too much.

[Guest]

80% is the low end of break even points for SB? In this run environment?

[XZero771679666304]

80% is the low end of break even points for SB? In this run environment?

 

 

Am I off base here? I may be, but I recall having this debate a few years ago when the environment wasn't that much better and that seemed to be the consensus.

[Guest]

I think 75% is plenty fine with the suppressed offense of the last few years, especially with the volume that Upton does.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/

[XZero771679666304]

I think 75% is plenty fine with the suppressed offense of the last few years, especially with the volume that Upton does.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/

 

I stand corrected. I suppose I just place a premium on efficiency.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

80% is the low end of break even points for SB? In this run environment?

 

Isn't 80% basically Carlos Beltran holy jinkees efficient?

[Splendid Splinter]

80% is the low end of break even points for SB? In this run environment?

 

Isn't 80% basically Carlos Beltran holy jinkees efficient?

 

Only 44 players in history have 80% or better (80 or more attempts since 1951 so there could be more)... 20 of those 44 are active players. Utley has the highest % ever with 89.4% (123 attempts). Beltran is 2nd with 87.5% (336 attempts).Some other notables... Tim Raines 84.7%, Ichiro 81.7%, Rickey Henderson 80.8%, Jose Reyes 79.9%, Alfonso Soriano 78.2%. BJ Upton is 120th all time at 76.1%.

 

 

EDIT: BJ Upton would 62nd all time out of 189 if you go by SB% and players with 260 attempts (BJ is at 264 so far) or more. The more he steals, the smaller that list... For example, if Upton get to 400 attempts and keep his 76.1%, he'll be 37th out of 76.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Yeah, B.J. Upton is totally underrated.

 

Are you kidding me? He's overrated, still coasting on his 2007 rep, and some team is going to give him far more than he's worth.

I think it depends on who you talk to. He's a pretty polarizing player as far as perception goes. I'd be really happy to have him on the team, but I think he'll end up getting overpaid by someone.

 

He is a great defensive CF and hits a fair number of homers, but he doesn't get on base well and gets caught stealing way too much.

 

He'd be great as a CF for a reasonable price, but his bat won't play at the corners, Jackson is coming and some team is going to pay Upton a ton. I can't think of a good reason the Cubs would want to get in on that.

 

I agree, and the same goes with all of them. Upton, Young, Ethier, and Swisher would each be solid additions, but none of them are the type of players that you want to get in any kind of bidding war over. My guess is that as of now, the early plan for LF for the next 2 years is hope for the best from LaHair and ride Soriano until the engine drops out.if something becomes available at the right price between now and then, go for it. If we do sign Soler, then hopefully he's ready to take over a corner OF spot by 2015.

[davell]

Of course it does. Remember, it took Cespedes about a month after he gained residency, before he was able to sign too. This is getting precariously close at this point to becoming a HUGE issue. Because if he's not signed before July 2nd, he falls in directly with the others. Meaning we have 2.9 million to spend on an entire class, unless we're going to pay double, because of penalties and lose the ability yo sign anyone to a large bonus, on top of that.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Faked out by an extra page of replies.

 

(yes, I realize I'm compounding the problem)

[Sammy Sofa]

One again: actual news, the thread titles change.

[jersey cubs fan]

One again: actual news, the thread titles change.

 

But maybe something happened between the last time somebody considered a change and now?

[Splendid Splinter]

Of course it does. Remember, it took Cespedes about a month after he gained residency, before he was able to sign too. This is getting precariously close at this point to becoming a HUGE issue. Because if he's not signed before July 2nd, he falls in directly with the others. Meaning we have 2.9 million to spend on an entire class, unless we're going to pay double, because of penalties and lose the ability yo sign anyone to a large bonus, on top of that.

 

I thought he can be signed to whatever $$$ even if it's after July 2nd???

[Sammy Sofa]

One again: actual news, the thread titles change.

 

But maybe something happened between the last time somebody considered a change and now?

 

Actual news, son.

[davell]

He can be. But, he's an IFA under the age of 23. The new CBA kicks in on that date and it puts all of those guys in under the rest of the IFA for that signing period. the max spending limit is 2.9 mill total. Of course, you CAN go over that amount, but if you exceed it by more than 5 and less than 10 percent, it means you pay a 75 percent luxury tax on the amount you go over it by. If you spend between 10 and 15 percent over, you pay a 100 percent luxury tax, plus aren'T allowed to give anyone the following year a 500,000 bonus or higher. if you go 15 percent or more over, it costs you a 100 percent luxury tax and can't spend 250,000 or more on a player the following year.

 

What this does, is it takes teams that were "out" on Soler, because we were looking at giving him 27 mill or so, and puts them right back in, because lets say you were willing to pay him 10 mill, you could basically give him 6.5 or so, pay the overage tax and be there. You just probably would spend your entire IFA budget on him and no one else.

 

This doesn't seem likely for us to do, because we need strength in numbers. If he still wants his same amount, it's cost us over 50 mill, to give him the 27. He could then roll the dice, stick in the Dominican and wait until he's 23, when he's no longer under this rule. Which is why I want this to be done with in time to where that doesn't become an option for him.

[SouthSideRyan]

Those new rules are so [expletive] stupid.

[PriortoTheoIhadWood]

Those new rules are so [expletive] stupid.

 

Really poorly timed for our new FO as well...big boo all around.