Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[Magnetic Curses]

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere. I just saw it and thought I would add it to the thread.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-latest-on-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

Cespedes and his agent, Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, are starting negotiations at "Chapman money," one general manager tells Passan, in reference to Aroldis Chapman's six-year, $30.25MM contract with the Reds. The GM said Cespedes might even get a six-, seven- or eight-year deal. The GM also said he's "never seen a more confident agent" than Katz is with Cepedes, adding that the new CBA has increased the outfielder's market (Twitter links).

 

where do i sign? he's virtually guaranteed to be worth more than 5 million per every single year of the deal.

[davearm2]

Was it ever fully resolved if/how the new CBA impacts Cespedes' negotiating position?

 

AFAIK, issue #1 was when the new rules take effect.

 

Issue #2 was whether Cespedes' age exempted him from some of the new spending limits.

 

I don't recall ever seeing definitive answers on these questions.

The answer to your 1st question is as long as guys sign before July 2nd of next year, they are exempt from the IFA signing budget. This includes Jorge Soler and all unsigned Latin American prospects that didn't sign earlier in the year. Same thing with Pac Rim guys, other Cubans. Everyone. Answer to your 2nd question is Cubans 23 or older are exempt from the IFA spending limits as well. What I hope this means for the Cubs is spending bigtime on what's left out there. Soler, Concepcion, and the 4 or 5 big bonus Latin Americans that I know haven't signed yet.

Thanks davell.

 

Sounds like Cespedes is under no constraints. Guys like Soler have to sign before July 2.

 

I wonder if there might be a rash of Cuban defections in the next few months, guys trying to beat the deadline. Not that defecting is easy to pull off. Curious if the Cuban national team has any trips on the calendar.

[davearm2]

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere. I just saw it and thought I would add it to the thread.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-latest-on-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

Cespedes and his agent, Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, are starting negotiations at "Chapman money," one general manager tells Passan, in reference to Aroldis Chapman's six-year, $30.25MM contract with the Reds. The GM said Cespedes might even get a six-, seven- or eight-year deal. The GM also said he's "never seen a more confident agent" than Katz is with Cepedes, adding that the new CBA has increased the outfielder's market (Twitter links).

 

where do i sign? he's virtually guaranteed to be worth more than 5 million per every single year of the deal.

Yeah that's a much different tune than the $50-60M we've heard.

 

That said, I wonder how many minor league prospects there are around baseball that a team like the Cubs would be willing to cut a $30M check to acquire. For all intents and purposes, that's what Cespedes is.

[davell]

For what it's worth, Jorge Soler, the 19 year Cuban OF is expected to get over 20 mill himself. Jim Callis compared him to Bubba Starling in a way. Further along though, but probably winds up in RF, even though he has speed. Callis said he'll be ranked somewhere in the 11 to 20 range in their top 100. So, he'd immediately become our top prospect basically. Worth 20 mill? I say yes, since he can still sign a major league deal and adding a guy with this type of talent amps the system up quite a bit. In my mind, he's more important of a "get" for us than Cespedes is.

[Magnetic Curses]

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere. I just saw it and thought I would add it to the thread.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-latest-on-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

Cespedes and his agent, Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, are starting negotiations at "Chapman money," one general manager tells Passan, in reference to Aroldis Chapman's six-year, $30.25MM contract with the Reds. The GM said Cespedes might even get a six-, seven- or eight-year deal. The GM also said he's "never seen a more confident agent" than Katz is with Cepedes, adding that the new CBA has increased the outfielder's market (Twitter links).

 

where do i sign? he's virtually guaranteed to be worth more than 5 million per every single year of the deal.

Yeah that's a much different tune than the $50-60M we've heard.

 

That said, I wonder how many minor league prospects there are around baseball that a team like the Cubs would be willing to cut a $30M check to acquire. For all intents and purposes, that's what Cespedes is.

 

over 6 years? a few.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd drop $30 million for six years on almost any AAA prospect whose age and numbers say they can be an average starter immediately. Easily.

[davell]

The other Cubans available that I'm aware of are the 19 year old lefty pitcher, Geraldo Concepcion. He was Cuban ROY this past season. 3.36 ERA and 53 K's in 101 innings. Armando Rivero is a 23 year old RP and Henry Urrutia is a switch hitting OFer. I know nothing about them at all. There's also Anelkis Garcia Speck, the 22 year old lefty pitcher we were supposedly considering drafting last year in the 1st round. But he was taken out of the draft as quickly as he was put in. I think he had falsified his residence to get quicker signing status or something like that. At any rate, he's still unsigned as well, although it's possible he's not even eligible as of now, for all I know. But he was a guy looking for 15 mill or so.

[davearm2]

I'd drop $30 million for six years on almost any AAA prospect whose age and numbers say they can be an average starter immediately. Easily.

So a guy like Welington Castillo? Really?

 

I'd need bonafide star potential. The appropriate discount factor for prospects would have to be pretty large. I surely don't need to tell you that the bust rate is quite high, even amongst guys that seem solid at AAA.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd drop $30 million for six years on almost any AAA prospect whose age and numbers say they can be an average starter immediately. Easily.

So a guy like Welington Castillo? Really?

 

I'd need bonafide star potential. The appropriate discount factor for prospects would have to be pretty large. I surely don't need to tell you that the bust rate is quite high, even amongst guys that seem solid at AAA.

 

It's been almost 30 years since Bill James proved that properly adjusted minor league stats are pretty close to just as predictive as MLB stats.

 

Welington Castillo wouldn't pass my standard, though. You need a lot better than mid-.800s OPS in the PCL before I consider you a MLB regular.

[davell]

I am starting to think Castillo is a future starter in the majors. Utterly average starter, but a starter nonetheless. 30 mill though? Not close. Cespedes? Damn right, I'd do it. Because the potential is supposedly there for much more than a very average player. 60 mill? Now that's a risk. The scout you're listening to on that one is putting his job on the line. I'd take the strength in numbers approach personally. I'd take Soler and quite a few other IFA over just getting Cespedes. Yeah, he's not going to help immediately, as Cespedes probably will, but he may be just as talented and we could add quite a huge group of bigtime young talent to go along with him. For less than Cespedes alone. Go ahead and let the Marlins spend big on him, because they WILL be driving the price way up.

[sneakypower]

That said, I wonder how many minor league prospects there are around baseball that a team like the Cubs would be willing to cut a $30M check to acquire. For all intents and purposes, that's what Cespedes is.

 

over 6 years? a few.

BTB did a pretty good thing on this last year and determined a #11-25 overall (hitting) prospect to be worth $34M in surplus value

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/7/13/1567771/prospect-surplus-value

 

Callis had Soler at the top of that threshold, and if you figure Cespedes to be even better, he might reasonably be worth close to $50M

[questionmarkgrace]

You can call the cuban league a double a league or a triple a league if you want but the fact of the matter is that guys that are dominant there have typically remained a star here. The hernandez brothers, Contreras, Alexie Ramirez, Kendrys Morales. Chapman has been injured pretty much the whole time he has been here. Even recent guys like viciedo and leonys martin have been very successful at a young age and look like they will be very good major leaguers.

 

Finding a comparison for what he has done in cuba. Each player's last season in cuba. Stats are woefuly incomplete and very difficult to find.

 

Alexei Ramirez 2007: .335/ ??? /574 20 hr's (Home run champ)

Kendrys Morales 2002: .324/ ??? / .577 21 hr's (new rookie record)

Yoanis Cespedes 2011: .333/.424/.667 33 hr's (home run champ, new record)

 

Everyone seems to hit for high average in cuba Morales once hit .391 and cespedes hit .345 last year. This will most certainly be the biggest adjustment for Cespedes as both morales and Ramirez struggled mightly early on only to pick it adjust after a few months. .260-.280 is probably more realistic for his first season in the MLB with potential to be a .300 hitter. The power however seems to have staying power mainly because these guys are hitting so many homeruns in approximately a half of a mlb season. Cepedes is averaging between 40 and 50 extra base hits per season and he has been very consistent in doing so. Stretched out for a full season Ramirez hit 21 hr's in his first go around with the pale hose. Thus I dont think it would be crazy to see cespedes hit 25-30 in is first year in the US. With 20-30 more extra base hits from doubles and triples. He should slug close to .500. On base percentage, however, is a question mark. Leonys martin was amongst the lead leaders, #5 to be exact, with a .491 clip in 2008 Cespedes had a .404 obp that year. With high averages inflating the obp he will certainly see a drop in this area of production. He's clearly not yuniesky betancourt bad but he's not bonds either. Its kind of a crapshoot as to where his obp may fall. Conventional wisdom suggests that as long as he hits for power however he should maintain a fairly good obp, although we have learned all too painfully that this is not always true. My guess .333

 

Offensively I'm thinking he is going to look alot like 2004 Soriano at least initially. But if his defense is lock down as others suggest I'm thinking a 3.1 war should be in reach with 5 or more prime years to follow At which point, he will probably be worth a $60 million dollar contract. Also If someone has more complete stats from past cuban years post them.

 

 

some data pulled from these articles

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8152

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/11/will-the-cubs-pursue-yoenner-cespedes/

 

http://www.baseballdecuba.com/Players-50SN/YCespedes-GRM.html

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/2001-2002_Cuban_National_League

[Little Slide Rooter]

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere. I just saw it and thought I would add it to the thread.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-latest-on-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

Cespedes and his agent, Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, are starting negotiations at "Chapman money," one general manager tells Passan, in reference to Aroldis Chapman's six-year, $30.25MM contract with the Reds. The GM said Cespedes might even get a six-, seven- or eight-year deal. The GM also said he's "never seen a more confident agent" than Katz is with Cepedes, adding that the new CBA has increased the outfielder's market (Twitter links).

 

where do i sign? he's virtually guaranteed to be worth more than 5 million per every single year of the deal.

Yeah that's a much different tune than the $50-60M we've heard.

 

That said, I wonder how many minor league prospects there are around baseball that a team like the Cubs would be willing to cut a $30M check to acquire. For all intents and purposes, that's what Cespedes is.

 

Come on now, for the sake of your arguement we'd be talking an instant top 10 prospect do its not like wed be shelling out for Marquez Smith.

[davearm2]

Good stuff sneakypower and questionmarkgrace. Thanks for posting it.

[Guest]

I honestly used to hate cro magnon and sneaky power is one of my favorite posters now.

 

Must've been the av.

[davearm2]

Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere. I just saw it and thought I would add it to the thread.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/the-latest-on-yoenis-cespedes.html

 

Cespedes and his agent, Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, are starting negotiations at "Chapman money," one general manager tells Passan, in reference to Aroldis Chapman's six-year, $30.25MM contract with the Reds. The GM said Cespedes might even get a six-, seven- or eight-year deal. The GM also said he's "never seen a more confident agent" than Katz is with Cepedes, adding that the new CBA has increased the outfielder's market (Twitter links).

 

where do i sign? he's virtually guaranteed to be worth more than 5 million per every single year of the deal.

Yeah that's a much different tune than the $50-60M we've heard.

 

That said, I wonder how many minor league prospects there are around baseball that a team like the Cubs would be willing to cut a $30M check to acquire. For all intents and purposes, that's what Cespedes is.

 

Come on now, for the sake of your arguement we'd be talking an instant top 10 prospect do its not like wed be shelling out for Marquez Smith.

Hey don't misunderstand. I'm all for going after Cespedes.

 

I was asking a more general question about what the cash value is of a typical good/great minor league prospect. How many guys in MiLB would you fork over $30M for? Is it 10? 100? More?

 

Personally, my SWAG is that it'd be on the low end of that range.

[Bull]

Does anyone have any concerns with PED's with him?

[Magnetic Curses]

Hey don't misunderstand. I'm all for going after Cespedes.

 

I was asking a more general question about what the cash value is of a typical good/great minor league prospect. How many guys in MiLB would you fork over $30M for? Is it 10? 100? More?

 

Personally, my SWAG is that it'd be on the low end of that range.

 

you seem hung up on the 30 mil number when it's actually just over 5 million per year. either you're doing it wrong or you're being purposefully misleading.

[davearm2]

Hey don't misunderstand. I'm all for going after Cespedes.

 

I was asking a more general question about what the cash value is of a typical good/great minor league prospect. How many guys in MiLB would you fork over $30M for? Is it 10? 100? More?

 

Personally, my SWAG is that it'd be on the low end of that range.

 

you seem hung up on the 30 mil number when it's actually just over 5 million per year. either you're doing it wrong or you're being purposefully misleading.

None of the above. I'm asking a different question that's only tangentially related to Cespedes.

[jersey cubs fan]

Hey don't misunderstand. I'm all for going after Cespedes.

 

I was asking a more general question about what the cash value is of a typical good/great minor league prospect. How many guys in MiLB would you fork over $30M for? Is it 10? 100? More?

 

Personally, my SWAG is that it'd be on the low end of that range.

 

you seem hung up on the 30 mil number when it's actually just over 5 million per year. either you're doing it wrong or you're being purposefully misleading.

 

There's also a fairly substantial difference between what good prospect is and what a great prospect is.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Don't have a link but MLBTR reports that Cespedes free agency has been pushed to January. They say it's for residency purposes but maybe his agent is waiting for Fielder to be off the market.

[davell]

I wonder if Soler is in the same boat? This holds up the OF market for sure. Soler doesn't matter as much, since he's not a major league ready guy, but this slows down any market there may be for Marlon Byrd most likely.

[Pushfrog98]

I wonder if Soler is in the same boat? This holds up the OF market for sure. Soler doesn't matter as much, since he's not a major league ready guy, but this slows down any market there may be for Marlon Byrd most likely.

Pun intended?

[jam1975]

the sophomore slump of his promo videos:http://vimeo.com/33833077

[Clem Fandango]

Video of him working out for the Cubs at 1:50 in