Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[toonsterwu]

Raisin, there was a report earlier this year about how Wei-Yin was sitting high 80's this year.

 

Granted, not the best comparison. My initial thought process was that both guys had decidedly average secondary pitches and average to fringy velo.

 

Edit: Nvm ... it wasn't Patrick Newman, it was from mopupduty using NPB Tracker data.

 

http://mopupduty.com/index.php/wei-ying-chen-1233/

 

this is the referencing data collection

 

http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=112

[toonsterwu]

As a total side note, and I'm no expert on this, so someone else should chime in, but I don't love Chen's arm action. He has that similar little motion that Nick Struck (and Dillon Maples has), at least from what I've seen. Not the end of the world, but some guys have had some health issues (Tommy Hanson comes to mind in regards to somewhat similar issues).

 

Thanks, I've not looked too deeply into Japanese league pitchers coming to the states in the past so this is interesting information. The thing that really intrigues me about Chen is the youth, lack of mileage on his arm, and that he'd likely come pretty cheap. The stats I'm seeing have him at 486 innings in 4 seasons prior to 2011 and no 200 inning seasons (188 is the max) and since Daisuke's actual contract was just $8.7 million in AAV, Chen may come even more cheaply than that.

 

He's a gamble, but one that doesn't come with much commitment and that's good if we end up making major commitments to Pujols/Prince and Wilson.

 

Roughly speaking, if we can get him at an AAV of around, say, 3-5 mil, I've got no issue with it.

[dew1679666265]

Roughly speaking, if we can get him at an AAV of around, say, 3-5 mil, I've got no issue with it.

 

Works for me.

[toonsterwu]

Roughly speaking, if we can get him at an AAV of around, say, 3-5 mil, I've got no issue with it.

 

Works for me.

 

Man ... looking at the data set is troubling. I don't know how accurate it is ... but he's been largely sub 90 all year on the fastball. Unless the secondary stuff has improved a bit (the slider looked decent from some games I've seen clips of this year, so perhaps) ... is he really that much better than Chris Rusin? I'm asking that not to be an annoying jerk - I'm sort of serious. Granted, he tops out a bit higher than Rusin, as Rusin tops out high 80's.

[dew1679666265]

Man ... looking at the data set is troubling. I don't know how accurate it is ... but he's been largely sub 90 all year on the fastball. Unless the secondary stuff has improved a bit (the slider looked decent from some games I've seen clips of this year, so perhaps) ... is he really that much better than Chris Rusin? I'm asking that not to be an annoying jerk - I'm sort of serious. Granted, he tops out a bit higher than Rusin, as Rusin tops out high 80's.

 

I guess it depends on why his average velo has dropped. If it's due to injury, that's troubling. If it's by design, then it might help save his arm a bit. The blurb from Patrick on Mopupduty seemed to indicate that he was working with slower speeds, but with more pinpoint accuracy. It also sounded like the movement on his fastball was picking up the second time Patrick saw him, which is encouraging.

 

The thing that troubles me a bit is the wide array of injuries. Hadn't realized he'd been hurt that often.

[Guest]

Disappointing looking at the tracker.

 

The last time I watched Wei-Yin Chen, he was extremely effective but I wasn’t sure how I felt about him as an MLB prospect. This start was a bit more confidence-inspiring. He showed a broader repertoire, working in his curveball and forkball, but more importantly I saw a little movement on his fastball that I had noticed earlier in the year. It was almost like a shuuto, with a little tailing movement away from righthanded hitters. Chen only tasted trouble in the second inning, when he gave up a series of line drive singles, yielding Yakult’s only run of the game; and in the third, when a series of elevated fastballs to Shingo Kawabata eventually resulted in a triple. On the negative side, he still didn’t have the great 150+ kmph (94+ mph) velocity that he’s shown in previous years, and he did work up in the zone a bit. That will catch up to him against better competition.

 

http://www.npbtracker.com/tag/wei-yin-chen/

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I called Chen interesting a couple of weeks go but on second thought.....meh. Not without a high end pitcher first...the back end of the rotation will work itself out if they improve the front end.

[dew1679666265]

I called Chen interesting a couple of weeks go but on second thought.....meh. Not without a high end pitcher first...the back end of the rotation will work itself out if they improve the front end.

 

My plan is to go for Pujols, Wilson, and Chen primarily, so the high end pitcher would be taken care of. If we were to miss on Wilson, I'd shoot for Danks as well as Chen. I'd also look to pick up Jeff Francis on a cheap, one year deal.

[toonsterwu]

I called Chen interesting a couple of weeks go but on second thought.....meh. Not without a high end pitcher first...the back end of the rotation will work itself out if they improve the front end.

 

My plan is to go for Pujols, Wilson, and Chen primarily, so the high end pitcher would be taken care of. If we were to miss on Wilson, I'd shoot for Danks as well as Chen. I'd also look to pick up Jeff Francis on a cheap, one year deal.

 

I feel like if we miss on Wilson, my 2nd option would be Darvish. A lot of risk, but then again, a lot of risk in this market, and he's young enough to think he has a few years in him. Add in that he'd only cost money, and provided that it fit within the budget, I think it makes as much sense as pushing hard for a trade.

 

I'm also not sure we have the trade assets to win a trade, unless other teams back out (assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable).

[dew1679666265]

I guess this is as good a place as any to put this. No idea what kind of credibility Alex Speier has, but he's a WEEI reporter who says the Sox will not pursue any high priced pitching this offseason.

 

And with the team unlikely to open its wallet for another long-term deal for an expensive starting pitcher, and an absence of clear-cut, major-league ready starting pitching prospects in the system, the Sox will have to get creative.

 

If true, this is one high-payroll bidder out of the CJ Wilson hunt.

[dew1679666265]

I feel like if we miss on Wilson, my 2nd option would be Darvish. A lot of risk, but then again, a lot of risk in this market, and he's young enough to think he has a few years in him. Add in that he'd only cost money, and provided that it fit within the budget, I think it makes as much sense as pushing hard for a trade.

 

I'm also not sure we have the trade assets to win a trade, unless other teams back out (assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable).

 

It would be tough for us to win a Danks trade battle without including BJax, I agree. I'm just really concerned about wear and tear on Darvish's arm and how high that posting fee might go. If we're going to miss on a high end talent this offseason, I'd rather we make sure to get one of the first basemen. For that reason, I'd want to ensure that a posting fee in the neighborhood of Daisuke's wouldn't interfere with the pursuit of Pujols/Prince.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

The Red Sox were never going to be players in the SP FA anyway. They have Becket, Lester, Buchholz, Miller/Bowden/Wakefield/DiceK/Tazawa/Morales...for them they key is getting their guys healthy. They'll probably look to resign Bedard.

[dew1679666265]

The Red Sox were never going to be players in the SP FA anyway. They have Becket, Lester, Buchholz, Miller/Bowden/Wakefield/DiceK/Tazawa/Morales...for them they key is getting their guys healthy.

 

There's been a lot of talk in this thread and others where people were assuming the Yankees and Red Sox both would be in the CJ Wilson running and that would bump his pricetag up into the area of $100+ million. That's why I found the rumor noteworthy.

 

Also, on a somewhat related note, the Yankees' apparent offer to Sabathia is reportedly 5 years/$120 million - which would be a $24 million AAV. Basically all that is doing is adding $1 million per year in each year and extending what's left on the current contract by one year. If CC really is demanding 6/150 from the Yanks, this could get interesting.

[huff]

I feel like if we miss on Wilson, my 2nd option would be Darvish. A lot of risk, but then again, a lot of risk in this market, and he's young enough to think he has a few years in him. Add in that he'd only cost money, and provided that it fit within the budget, I think it makes as much sense as pushing hard for a trade.

 

I'm also not sure we have the trade assets to win a trade, unless other teams back out (assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable).

 

It would be tough for us to win a Danks trade battle without including BJax, I agree. I'm just really concerned about wear and tear on Darvish's arm and how high that posting fee might go. If we're going to miss on a high end talent this offseason, I'd rather we make sure to get one of the first basemen. For that reason, I'd want to ensure that a posting fee in the neighborhood of Daisuke's wouldn't interfere with the pursuit of Pujols/Prince.

 

marmol for danks straight up- would you pull the trigger on that? i would have to think about doing that.

[SouthSideRyan]

I feel like if we miss on Wilson, my 2nd option would be Darvish. A lot of risk, but then again, a lot of risk in this market, and he's young enough to think he has a few years in him. Add in that he'd only cost money, and provided that it fit within the budget, I think it makes as much sense as pushing hard for a trade.

 

I'm also not sure we have the trade assets to win a trade, unless other teams back out (assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable).

 

It would be tough for us to win a Danks trade battle without including BJax, I agree. I'm just really concerned about wear and tear on Darvish's arm and how high that posting fee might go. If we're going to miss on a high end talent this offseason, I'd rather we make sure to get one of the first basemen. For that reason, I'd want to ensure that a posting fee in the neighborhood of Daisuke's wouldn't interfere with the pursuit of Pujols/Prince.

 

marmol for danks straight up- would you pull the trigger on that? i would have to think about doing that.

 

Um. Yes.

[huff]

dont know why but a marmol for danks straight up reeks of kenny williams...lets get him on the horn asap

[Exile on Waveland]

I wouldn't have to think about it.

[davearm2]

Yep I would think about that for about 0.07 seconds.

 

Marmol's elbow is a ticking time bomb, and now his wildness is once again a big red flag.

[dew1679666265]

marmol for danks straight up- would you pull the trigger on that? i would have to think about doing that.

 

Absolutely yes. Marmol will be 30 next year and appears to be declining a bit. Danks will be 27 next year and is just about to hit his prime. No way the Sox do that, though.

[toonsterwu]

I guess this is as good a place as any to put this. No idea what kind of credibility Alex Speier has, but he's a WEEI reporter who says the Sox will not pursue any high priced pitching this offseason.

 

And with the team unlikely to open its wallet for another long-term deal for an expensive starting pitcher, and an absence of clear-cut, major-league ready starting pitching prospects in the system, the Sox will have to get creative.

 

If true, this is one high-payroll bidder out of the CJ Wilson hunt.

 

Speier is fairly legit. Doesn't mean he can't be wrong, but one of the better beat guys out there, and he's known to be solidly connected.

 

That said, I think it was fairly likely that the Red Sox were unlikely to go after a big time FA signee. Just too much money tied up there. The return of Clay Buchholz is as big as anything for them, and they'll likely hope some combination of Alex Wilson/Kyle Weiland and others can fill out some useful starts. I'd look for them to take some low cost gambles on rehabbing talent as well.

[toonsterwu]

I feel like if we miss on Wilson, my 2nd option would be Darvish. A lot of risk, but then again, a lot of risk in this market, and he's young enough to think he has a few years in him. Add in that he'd only cost money, and provided that it fit within the budget, I think it makes as much sense as pushing hard for a trade.

 

I'm also not sure we have the trade assets to win a trade, unless other teams back out (assuming Brett Jackson is untouchable).

 

It would be tough for us to win a Danks trade battle without including BJax, I agree. I'm just really concerned about wear and tear on Darvish's arm and how high that posting fee might go. If we're going to miss on a high end talent this offseason, I'd rather we make sure to get one of the first basemen. For that reason, I'd want to ensure that a posting fee in the neighborhood of Daisuke's wouldn't interfere with the pursuit of Pujols/Prince.

 

marmol for danks straight up- would you pull the trigger on that? i would have to think about doing that.

 

I'd do that in a heartbeat. I doubt the White Sox would do that, though. I imagine they'd counter and ask for Cashner or Brett Jackson to headline a package.

[dew1679666265]

Speier is fairly legit. Doesn't mean he can't be wrong, but one of the better beat guys out there, and he's known to be solidly connected.

 

That said, I think it was fairly likely that the Red Sox were unlikely to go after a big time FA signee. Just too much money tied up there. The return of Clay Buchholz is as big as anything for them, and they'll likely hope some combination of Alex Wilson/Kyle Weiland and others can fill out some useful starts. I'd look for them to take some low cost gambles on rehabbing talent as well.

 

I agree, but like I said a number of people believed the Red Sox would jump into the Wilson running. If Speier is pretty connected as you say, it would appear they're out (though clearly not a certainty) and the Yankees may be focused on CC for a while and may bow out from the elite guys if they have to give CC a hefty raise.

[toonsterwu]

Speier is fairly legit. Doesn't mean he can't be wrong, but one of the better beat guys out there, and he's known to be solidly connected.

 

That said, I think it was fairly likely that the Red Sox were unlikely to go after a big time FA signee. Just too much money tied up there. The return of Clay Buchholz is as big as anything for them, and they'll likely hope some combination of Alex Wilson/Kyle Weiland and others can fill out some useful starts. I'd look for them to take some low cost gambles on rehabbing talent as well.

 

I agree, but like I said a number of people believed the Red Sox would jump into the Wilson running. If Speier is pretty connected as you say, it would appear they're out (though clearly not a certainty) and the Yankees may be focused on CC for a while and may bow out from the elite guys if they have to give CC a hefty raise.

 

I've said from the get-go, the teams I'm concerned about in regards to Wilson are teams like the Nationals/Blue Jays/Rangers. I could see a sleeper team or two emerge (Orioles could throw money, Marlins are a factor, someone's suggested that the Angels could pursue pitching and then turn-around and deal their pitching depth for hitting).

 

For me, the issue this off-season, in regards to the big ticket signees, or at least one of them, is that there are so many teams that have a healthy amount to spend. You don't need your typical teams to get involved to push the price up.

 

Of course, teams could show discipline and surprise.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

If the Angels pursued and landed Wilson then I'd go right after one of Richards or Chatwood, preferably Chatwood. Same for the Blue Jays...go right after someone like Morrow, Drabek, or Cecil. For the Nats go after Detweiler. For the Marlins maybe Volstad.

 

If Theo could pull off something like that...a talented young arm who hasn't broken out yet...well that's why Senor Ricketts hired him.

[toonsterwu]

The focus on first base is, understandably, on Pujols and Fielder. If for some reason, we don't land one of those two, for whatever reason, I'm curious what Plan B becomes. It seems possible, at that juncture, that they may try a trade for a young veteran with some potential, but likely wouldn't cost an arm and a leg talent wise. The name that pops up in mind for me would be someone like Matt LaPorta, a guy who has had struggles putting it together in the bigs, but has a solid approach at the plate and good raw power. Were his struggles due to the injury he had (hip?), or was it for other reasons? Another name that comes to mind is Adam Lind. He had some injuries and some bad luck, and DH is a better spot for him overall, but he might be a nice gamble to make a move on if they pass/don't get Pujols/Fielder.

 

Anyhow, just a couple names to ponder if they opt/don't get the big signing. I think that both would likely be reasonable gets in terms of trade cost - Cleveland wants to give Carlos Santana enough AB's at first and would like a righty to pair with him, and Lind is costing them 5+ mil for 2 subpar years. That said, both would definitely be gambles, as LaPorta hasn't put it together, and over the last two years, Lind has gotten increasingly aggressive in pitches outside of the zone and some horrible L/R splits, amongst other issues.

 

Another name that hasn't been discussed that much is Andre Ethier. Now, he's coming off a down year, a year where he was injured, so his medicals would have to pass, but it's possible the Dodgers look to move him to clear some salary and give themselves more room to keep Kemp. I doubt Ethier is going to reach the heights, power wise, that he once did, but he looks like an intriguing fit and still in his prime.

 

Obviously, a lot would depend on the costs, in talent, of trades, but it's crossed my mind, through all the discussions here, whether Epstein might decide to try and land two big FA pitching arms. I mean, if they decide to spend all on pitching, landing say, Wilson/Darvish, that would allow them greater flexibility on Dempster/Zambrano. It's also probably going to be more costly to trade for intriguing pitching talent, even gambles. They'd likel still have enough flexibility, contract wise, to pursue an arm from the 2013 FA class next year.

 

Anyhow, food for thought.