Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[jersey cubs fan]

The difference between what he did this year and last year is tied up in that .20 points of BABIP. He was a bit lucky in 2010, a bit unlucky this year. It's that simple.

 

His WAR was like half this year. He wasn't the same player.

[brinoch]

I also think Byrd has to either go, or sit on the bench. He's clearly declining and is barely serviceable at this point.

 

I haven't seen him play, but at least by the numbers, Jackson is ready for the Show. That covers CF. With Theo in charge, they'll give him the time and patience he needs to settle in (wow! think about that...). Soriano, unless we can clear that contract somehow, still occupies LF.

 

What to do about RF? Move Byrd to right and platoon him? Use him as the 4th OF? I'm curious if anyone would be interested in bringing in JD Drew on a one-year contract as a possible platoon player with, say, Reed Johnson. That gives you 5 OF -- Soriano, Jackson, Drew, Johnson, Byrd. Alternately, I would be interested in trading Byrd and bringing Beltran in for a short-term deal for RF.

 

Byrd was almost exactly the same player this year as he was last year.

 

Kind of crappy. His last good season was 2008, and his OBP, which is extremely influenced by his BABIP dropped .022 points -- probably somewhat related to getting hit in the face and his age. I suppose at $6.5M he's not a drag on the payroll for his performance, but I really think that money could be spent better elsewhere.

[Rob]

The difference between what he did this year and last year is tied up in that .20 points of BABIP. He was a bit lucky in 2010, a bit unlucky this year. It's that simple.

 

His WAR was like half this year. He wasn't the same player.

 

He played in only 75% of the games he did in 2010 because his face got exploded. The rest of the difference is made up by defensive stats. And before you try to argue he was that good defensively in 2010, here are his UZR values by year (since 2005): 5.3, 2.9, 2.3, 2.8, -8.1, 9.8, 2.2

 

Tell me, do you really think he was a 9.8 run defender in CF in 2010, or is it more likely we are looking at some of that famous UZR variance?

[Little Slide Rooter]

If the season started tomorrow, the depth chart would look like this, going off of guys on the 40 ma roster:

 

1B: Baker, LaHair

2B: Barney, Baker, DeWitt

SS: Castro, Barney

3B: DeWitt,LeMahieu, Baker

RF: Colvin, LaHair

CF: Byrd, Campana

LF: Soriano, Colvin, LaHair

C: Soto, Clevenger

SP: Garza

SP: Zambrano

SP: Wells

SP: Coleman

SP: Cashner

CL: Marmol

RP: Marshall

RP: Samardzjia

RP: Carpenter

RP: Russell

RP: Dolis

RP: Gaub

 

For starters, we can replaceColeman with Dempster, as I can't imagine him not returning.

Replacing Wells is a possiblity as well I can't see Epstein shelling out close to 100 mil for CJ Wilson. Someone like Maholm or a trade makes more sense. Maybe even Samardzjia as there has been talk of. However, I don't think that there will be an urgency to add a new SP unless Zambrano is traded, especially considering the lack of options, and next years potential crop is far more appealing.

 

The pen: Swapping Gaub for Beliveau sounds likely. I also wouldnt be shocked to see Guzman replace Dolis.

 

The corner IF spots look mighty ugly. I'd like to put Fielder at 1B for now. He's more of a cornerstone than a win now guy. Id put the Cubs at 3 years before they get back to where they want to be. Fielders 28 now, and he'll still be in his prime by then. For now, he can help fill some empty seats. Aramis would look nice at 3rd, but I really can't see them both. Not saying it's impossible, but I can't see it. For the time being, I think that DeWitt and LeMahieu could end up platooning. Also, Baker will likely be traded. Add Ryan Flaherty

 

The outfield: Put Brett Jackson in CF. Shift Marlon Byrd to RF. then trade Marlon Byrd. For RF, maybe we could make a trade for someone like Melky Cabrera or perhaps Michaely Taylor or someone like that. I don't see a huge aquisition.

 

This would leave 1 spot left for an OF. Probably either LaHair, Colvin, or Campana, unless they go out and get a righty. I'll stick with Colvin for now.

 

That could be it for the offseason, like it or not. Remember, Theo said he plans to build the team with the future in mind. This being said, the Opening day depth chart could look like. Pretty: no, but we'll need to be patient.

 

1B: Fielder

2B: Barney, Flaherty, DeWitt

SS: Castro, Barney, Flaherty

3B: DeWitt, LeMahieu

RF: Cabrera, Flaherty

CF: Jackson, Colvin

LF: Soriano, Flaherty

C: Soto, Clevenger

SP: Garza

SP: Dempster

SP: Zambrano

SP: Cashner

SP: Wells

CL: Marmol

RP: Marshall

RP: Samardzjia

RP: Guzman

RP: Carpenter

RP: Russell

RP: Beliveau

[Rob]

I also think Byrd has to either go, or sit on the bench. He's clearly declining and is barely serviceable at this point.

 

I haven't seen him play, but at least by the numbers, Jackson is ready for the Show. That covers CF. With Theo in charge, they'll give him the time and patience he needs to settle in (wow! think about that...). Soriano, unless we can clear that contract somehow, still occupies LF.

 

What to do about RF? Move Byrd to right and platoon him? Use him as the 4th OF? I'm curious if anyone would be interested in bringing in JD Drew on a one-year contract as a possible platoon player with, say, Reed Johnson. That gives you 5 OF -- Soriano, Jackson, Drew, Johnson, Byrd. Alternately, I would be interested in trading Byrd and bringing Beltran in for a short-term deal for RF.

 

Byrd was almost exactly the same player this year as he was last year.

 

Kind of crappy. His last good season was 2008, and his OBP, which is extremely influenced by his BABIP dropped .022 points -- probably somewhat related to getting hit in the face and his age. I suppose at $6.5M he's not a drag on the payroll for his performance, but I really think that money could be spent better elsewhere.

 

The average MLB CF hit .261/.326/.410 last year. Had Byrd's BABIP been at his career average, that OBP and Slugging would have been almost exactly on the mark. He's ever so slightly above average defensively and on the basepaths and when his face isn't getting exploded, he stays pretty healthy.

 

Byrd isn't kind of crappy. He's pretty much the definition of average ballplayer. And $6.5 million for that is actually a good deal lower than market value.

 

I'll agree if you say it wasn't fun to watch him this year. He hacks way too much to have any business batting 3rd and when he did come back from his injury he looked awful. But if we just slide him over to RF to make way for Jackson, bat him 6th or 7th all season, we should be perfectly happy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Byrd is essentially a serviceable placeholder at best. Perfectly tolerable give how little he makes and that he'll be gone after this coming season.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Byrd is essentially a serviceable placeholder at best. Perfectly tolerable give how little he makes and that he'll be gone after this coming season.

 

That's why I want to move him. I really can't see the 2012 team contending. For this reason, Byrd is the guy with some legit trade value.

[Sammy Sofa]

Byrd is essentially a serviceable placeholder at best. Perfectly tolerable give how little he makes and that he'll be gone after this coming season.

 

That's why I want to move him. I really can't see the 2012 team contending. For this reason, Byrd is the guy with some legit trade value.

 

His value likely isn't very high right now given how last season went and the Cubs would be foolish to write off 2012 just yet. There's little pressing need to trade him ASAP. They'll have plenty of time to move him before the deadline, and hopefully by then he'll have worked some of that value back.

[El Duderino]

who would give up a good prospect for Byrd? Has Hendry already found another job?

[toonsterwu]

I think with Byrd, you don't care about the talent in return, you just look to clear as much of the contract as possible.

 

_____

 

In trying to scratch out the roster, the two biggest issues that come up are at third base and RF. There simply aren't many guys that seem to fit the Epstein-mold out there in FA, and the third base market is just awful after Aramis. I mean, I think you could make the case that, assuming Aramis goes, moving Jeff Baker to 3rd (his collegiate position) is about as good a move as anything else out there, unless you really like Edwin Encarnacion (and he's no guarantee to reach free agency). I mean, I'm sort of intrigued with a Kevin Kouzmanoff gamble ... but it's really not that exciting.

 

In RF, assuming Theo doesn't surprise and go with some old guy, there are some options. That said, mostly gambles, and there are a lot of poor defensive options. One of the more intriguing names out there might be Scott Hairston, and even then, that's a big gamble, and he's never really posted a strong OBP, although certainly the low BABIP's may be a factor there. A Hairston/Colvin RF platoon may be productive enough without costing too much, while still being strong defensively, and Hairston can backup in CF.

 

I like Darwin Barney, but assuming Castro stays at short, I'd like to see the top of the order upgraded, and Kelly Johnson still looks like the best gamble to me. A solid defensive player who has a solid approach at the plate. Seems like a fit.

[Guest]

Byrd is essentially a serviceable placeholder at best. Perfectly tolerable give how little he makes and that he'll be gone after this coming season.

 

That's why I want to move him. I really can't see the 2012 team contending. For this reason, Byrd is the guy with some legit trade value.

 

 

You really can't?

 

We had an average offense last year, at least one of our main competitors is likely to get much weaker and we have a bunch of money to spend and a smart guy to spend it.

 

Oh, yea, and we basically had a bunch of corpses as starting pitchers 30 times last year.

[THISisTHEyear09]

C: Geovany Soto

1B: Prince Fielder

2B: Darwin Barney

SS: Starlin Castro

3B: Edwin Encarnacion

LF: Alfonso Soriano

CF: Brett Jackson

RF: Byrd/Colvin

SP: Matt Garza

SP: Ryan Dempster

SP: Edwin Jackson

SP:Mark Buerhle

SP: Andrew Cashner

[toonsterwu]

I think there's very little chance that Cashner is in the big league rotation next year. He just doesn't have the arm-strength to likely carry meaningful innings next year, and there's no point to start him in the rotation and jerk him to the pen mid-season.

[XZero771679666304]

I'm on board with Kelly Johnson as well. I think there's a decent chance Barney's value is as high as it's going to be from here on out. I thought he was a bit lucky early on last season, and he tailed off pretty hard. He's good defensively, but he has no power and doesn't reach base enough.

 

If you look at his season as a whole it doesn't look bad, but I think the regression was towards who he really is. I think he's a candidate to be traded, for sure.

[XZero771679666304]

I think there's very little chance that Cashner is in the big league rotation next year. He just doesn't have the arm-strength to likely carry meaningful innings next year, and there's no point to start him in the rotation and jerk him to the pen mid-season.

 

Perhaps moving him to closer and trading Marmol might be an option.

 

Also, I still like the idea of trading for John Danks. He's third year arb-eligible, and I don't think it would take much to get him. I Have a feeling the Sox will retain Buerhle, and that might motivate them to clear some payroll.

[toonsterwu]

I think there's very little chance that Cashner is in the big league rotation next year. He just doesn't have the arm-strength to likely carry meaningful innings next year, and there's no point to start him in the rotation and jerk him to the pen mid-season.

 

Perhaps moving him to closer and trading Marmol might be an option.

 

Also, I still like the idea of trading for John Danks. He's third year arb-eligible, and I don't think it would take much to get him. I Have a feeling the Sox will retain Buerhle, and that might motivate them to clear some payroll.

 

I'm leaning towards Cashner as the future closer as well. The dynamics of the current situation makes it seem unlikely that they'll send him to AAA to work as a minor league starter. It's possible, and I actually prefer that, but I doubt it. If he's in the big league bullpen, he'll go fastball/breaking ball. While most pitchers tend to use mainly two pitches in-game, he still needs development on the consistency of the change. Can that happen in one off-season, ALONG with getting him primed enough to make enough meaningful starts in 2013? It's possible ... but with Marmol not likely to be here long term, there is the option of shifting him there.

 

The 2012 bullpen could be real good if Cashner is in the pen. We finally have the power arms back there - Samardzija/Cashner in middle relief, Cashner/Wood (along with Marshall) setting up, and Marmol and Co. closing. James Russell is still nasty against lefties, and there are more than enough options to call-up.

 

As for Danks, it comes down to how much it would take to pry him away. I don't know if the system is in a position to make such a move right now, pre-season, though, assuming Brett Jackson is penciled in as the starting CF.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think there will be some low risk high reward moves made this offseason this is what I am thinking on the positive side with feelings that Demp, Aram, Zambrano, Pena, Byrd all go:

 

CF Jackson

SS Castro

1B Fielder

RF Sizemore

LF Soriano

C Soto

2B Kelly Johnson

3B Encarnacion

 

Bench: Castillo/Celevenger, Barney, Colvin, Baker, DeWitt

 

SP Garza

SP Edwin Jackson

SP Oswalt

SP Wells

SP Cashner

 

RP Marmol

RP Wood

RP Marshall

RP Samardjiza

RP Beliveau

RP Russel

RP Guzman

 

Time will tell.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

I think there will be some low risk high reward moves made this offseason this is what I am thinking on the positive side with feelings that Demp, Aram, Zambrano, Pena, Byrd all go:

 

CF Jackson

SS Castro

1B Fielder

RF Sizemore

LF Soriano

C Soto

2B Kelly Johnson

3B Encarnacion

 

Bench: Castillo/Celevenger, Barney, Colvin, Baker, DeWitt

 

SP Garza

SP Edwin Jackson

SP Oswalt

SP Wells

SP Cashner

 

RP Marmol

RP Wood

RP Marshall

RP Samardjiza

RP Beliveau

RP Russel

RP Guzman

 

Time will tell.

 

I will follow this up with the idea of checking in on Shields, Danks, Liriano, Gio Gonzalez.

[Exile on Waveland]

Couple thoughts/comments:

 

-Counting on Cashner to fill a rotation spot for the Cubs this year would be a big mistake. The Cubs tried that this year and it was a travesty. And it's not like that was an aberration because he's generally a big innings eater -- he's thrown a total of 247 professional innings in four seasons. I like Cashner a lot. If the Cubs think he's a starter, have him start in the minors. I'm on board with that. If the Cubs think he's a reliever, have him start in the bullpen in Chicago. I'm on board with that. However, if he's in the Cubs' rotation, you almost have to sign a sixth starter as a handcuff -- which is wasting resources because you're basically just signing an actual starter anyway. The Cubs simply cannot risk another year of the cavalcade of suck that was this year's fifth-spot in the rotation.

 

-I don't get the Kelly Johnson stuff -- at all, really. The Cubs have a number of guys that could be average to above average at second base. (Heck, I don't believe it would be wise use of resources to sign Jose Reyes and he's good.) Last year Johnson had a 1.1 WAR*; Barney had a 1.0 WAR. Johnson cost $5,850, 000; Barney cost $417,000. So spend a lot more money for what might be a marginal upgrade? That seems, uh, not smart. In fact, It seems like something Jim Hendry would do.

 

 

 

*I know the response to that will surely be "but Johnson had a 4.2 WAR the year before!" That's true. He also had a 0.9 WAR the year before.

[brinoch]

I also think Byrd has to either go, or sit on the bench. He's clearly declining and is barely serviceable at this point.

 

I haven't seen him play, but at least by the numbers, Jackson is ready for the Show. That covers CF. With Theo in charge, they'll give him the time and patience he needs to settle in (wow! think about that...). Soriano, unless we can clear that contract somehow, still occupies LF.

 

What to do about RF? Move Byrd to right and platoon him? Use him as the 4th OF? I'm curious if anyone would be interested in bringing in JD Drew on a one-year contract as a possible platoon player with, say, Reed Johnson. That gives you 5 OF -- Soriano, Jackson, Drew, Johnson, Byrd. Alternately, I would be interested in trading Byrd and bringing Beltran in for a short-term deal for RF.

 

Byrd was almost exactly the same player this year as he was last year.

 

Kind of crappy. His last good season was 2008, and his OBP, which is extremely influenced by his BABIP dropped .022 points -- probably somewhat related to getting hit in the face and his age. I suppose at $6.5M he's not a drag on the payroll for his performance, but I really think that money could be spent better elsewhere.

 

The average MLB CF hit .261/.326/.410 last year. Had Byrd's BABIP been at his career average, that OBP and Slugging would have been almost exactly on the mark. He's ever so slightly above average defensively and on the basepaths and when his face isn't getting exploded, he stays pretty healthy.

 

Byrd isn't kind of crappy. He's pretty much the definition of average ballplayer. And $6.5 million for that is actually a good deal lower than market value.

 

I'll agree if you say it wasn't fun to watch him this year. He hacks way too much to have any business batting 3rd and when he did come back from his injury he looked awful. But if we just slide him over to RF to make way for Jackson, bat him 6th or 7th all season, we should be perfectly happy.

 

As I said, at $6.5M, he's not a huge drag on the payroll. But I don't think he's really the answer in RF; neither is Colvin.

[toonsterwu]

Couple thoughts/comments:

 

-Counting on Cashner to fill a rotation spot for the Cubs this year would be a big mistake. The Cubs tried that this year and it was a travesty. And it's not like that was an aberration because he's generally a big innings eater -- he's thrown a total of 247 professional innings in four seasons. I like Cashner a lot. If the Cubs think he's a starter, have him start in the minors. I'm on board with that. If the Cubs think he's a reliever, have him start in the bullpen in Chicago. I'm on board with that. However, if he's in the Cubs' rotation, you almost have to sign a sixth starter as a handcuff -- which is wasting resources because you're basically just signing an actual starter anyway. The Cubs simply cannot risk another year of the cavalcade of suck that was this year's fifth-spot in the rotation.

 

-I don't get the Kelly Johnson stuff -- at all, really. The Cubs have a number of guys that could be average to above average at second base. (Heck, I don't believe it would be wise use of resources to sign Jose Reyes and he's good.) Last year Johnson had a 1.1 WAR*; Barney had a 1.0 WAR. Johnson cost $5,850, 000; Barney cost $417,000. So spend a lot more money for what might be a marginal upgrade? That seems, uh, not smart. In fact, It seems like something Jim Hendry would do.

 

 

 

*I know the response to that will surely be "but Johnson had a 4.2 WAR the year before!" That's true. He also had a 0.9 WAR the year before.

 

Re: Kelly Johnson - The problem, as it relates to constructing a 2012/2013 lineup, is that, right now, Brett Jackson is penciled in by most as a top of the order option. It's quite likely he'll go through struggles his first year. The backup plan becomes ... Darwin Barney? Johnson seems exactly the type of guy Theo would go after - a in-his prime up-the-middle guy who is solid defensively and has a disciplined approach at the plate (perhaps too disciplined, but that's a separate issue). Kelly Johnson is a solid fielder who has a good approach offensively and offers some pop. He hit well down the stretch last year, showing enough positive signs. Of course, the price has to be right, but he's in his prime and if the price is fine, it seems like a decent gamble in this market, offering someone that could hit at the top of the order if necessary.

 

Reality is, the Cubs don't have many great 2nd base options in the upper levels. Barney's offense is less than ideal. You can live with it because you have an above average offensive shortstop, but you hope for better. LeMahieu/Flaherty aren't viewed as guys that can handle it on a regular basis. Unless Barney steps it up, it would seem like that a short term 2nd baseman would have to be found, in the same way that Mark DeRosa was added several years back.

[Exile on Waveland]

Well, if you believe an expensive, (possibly) marginal upgrade is worth making based on lineup construction, we're just going to fundamentally disagree.

[toonsterwu]

Well, if you believe an expensive, (possibly) marginal upgrade is worth making based on lineup construction, we're just going to fundamentally disagree.

 

Is it a gamble? No doubt about it, but I believe that Kelly Johnson has been at the extremes the last two years - an awfully hitter friendly park propped up his 2010 statistics, and a fair amount of bad luck to bring down his 2011 numbers. Now, performance year to year fluctuates, but on the whole, I think, assuming he doesn't have the bad luck he had in 2011, that he's likely to be a solid upgrade on Barney. I don't expect him to have the .346 BABIP he had in Toronto, but I do expect that he'll show more power than he did in Toronto, where they were working on getting him back in rhythm.

 

Put it loosely, I think he's likely an above average offensive and defensive 2nd baseman. That's a fairly solid upgrade. Hey, for all I know, he might have the same amount of bad luck in 2012 that he had with Arizona in 2011, but if not, I think he's roughly a 3 WAR 2nd baseman. If the price is right, it's well worth it. It comes down to what the price is.

 

that said, he's likely to have a fair amount of suitors.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

- Get an elite talent or two. There's 4 available in FA with Pujols, CC, Fielder, and Reyes.

 

- Look to grab former stars who are still young but have fallen off for one reason or another, if and only if they're short on years or money or both. Broxton, Sizemore, Aaron Hill, Encarnacion...Zumaya?...Maybe even be the next team in line to give Jeremy Hermida and/or Scott Olsen a shot (basically look for old top prospects who aren't so old)...Ian Stewart, Clayton Richard...iunno...whoever's out there...Chris Tillman...Jed Lowrie at 2B?....

 

- Make a trade for a non-elite ML talent that's still fairly young (<33). Ask about Nick Markakis.

 

- Add SP depth. CC and Wilson should obviously get the main looks, but guys like Rick Porcello, Gonzalez, Liriano, Danks, Floyd, Hughes, Jonathan Sanchez, Tyler Chatwood maybe...

 

- See if anyone will overpay for Marshall, Soto, or Garza...I'd prefer not to trade any of them, but for good pieces? Like say Detroit asked about Garza for Porcello, Oliver, Smyly, and C Rob BRantly...there's the chance I'd have a hard time saying no.

 

- Look for non-pitchers on the trade market too. Guys like BJ Upton, Matt Kemp, Chase Headley...

 

- Make Clevenger or Castillo the backup C, or sign one a solid vet like J. Molina/Schneider/Barajas/etc.

 

- Be flexible. Take risks. Other motivational [expletive].

[inari]

I'd be pretty happy to bring Nick Markakis on board - I doubt he'd take a ton in terms of prospects to get the deal done. For a corner spot, his offense isn't all that great, but he definitely knows how to get on base and is a good bet for an .800 OPS.

 

I might be underestimating how much it would take to get him though.