2011 Venezuelan Winter League

[Guest]

Welcome to the forums, popular opinion here on the forums is that once you reach a certain age your done for and no matter what kind of numbers you put up at AAA you don't deserve a shot at playing in the majors. I don't agree, but that seems to be the prevailing thought here. It seems to be based on what other players have done at similar ages after putting up similar numbers. Apparently thier numbers are suppose to be written off as some sort of fluke that can't possibly be replicated at the major league level.

You're sounding a bit bitter about this.

 

The reality is that there are very few hitters who toil in the minors for that long, get to that age and then become average or better major leaguers. But it has been done.

 

On the other hand, there are a large number of players who toil in the minors for that long, get to that age and put up numbers in the minors that they simply can't replicate in the bigs.

 

It's possible that LaHair is in that first group. But the odds are pretty long against it. Personally, I don't want the Cubs 2012 season to be partially determined by which camp he falls into.

[CubColtPacer]

Welcome to the forums, popular opinion here on the forums is that once you reach a certain age your done for and no matter what kind of numbers you put up at AAA you don't deserve a shot at playing in the majors. I don't agree, but that seems to be the prevailing thought here. It seems to be based on what other players have done at similar ages after putting up similar numbers. Apparently thier numbers are suppose to be written off as some sort of fluke that can't possibly be replicated at the major league level.

 

All players like LaHair have a chance to be real. But are the chances high enough to risk being given the amount of playing time needed to find out? That's the issue. In general, players like LaHair don't work out. Is LaHair an exception? Maybe. Can the Cubs afford to take the risk to find out? Probably not unless the other options are not that great because the downside of him busting would be too damaging to the team.

[Bruno7481]

I have no real opinion on LaHair, but there are lots of factors higher on the priority list that will determine the outcome of the 2012 season. Tim, I know you have been adamant about not giving up on 2012. I don't want the Cubs to do that either, but I also don't think this will be a very good team. Obviously a lot of that will be determined based on what they do this winter, but if they don't get a Pujols or Fielder, and decide to upgrade elsewhere, it's possible LaHair may be given a chance of some sort.

 

I don't want him as the starter based on what he did at AAA. If they can make significant upgrades at other positions it might be doable. Obviously hard to say without knowing the direction of the team this offseason.

[Vinestal]

My personal feeling is that 2012 will be a throw away year. Theo won't say that publicly but I think that's the way he will look at it as well. I think there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people here when that becomes obvious, although it may never be that obvious. it's the perfect time to try LaHair and see if he's for real. The popular opinions here bother me sometimes and there are a lot of bobble heads here that just go along with that opinion and join in running off whoever disagrees with them. Hell I could be wrong and maybe Theo will go out and get all of the pieces needed to make this team competitive in 2012. LaHair could just be a other Zuleta. That's not my opinion though.

[SouthSideRyan]

LaHair was a big prospect, that has torn it up after he turned the magic age of 27. His big chance was 150 PA in one of the worst hitters parks in the MLB. I'm not saying he should be the cub's first baseman, but I think that if the cub's don't land one of the big boys than I am against them overpaying Derrek Lee, Pena, or someone like that just to be a stopgap at 1B.

 

LaHair wasn't a big prospect. He was a 38th round pick, and never reached BA's top 10 Mariners prospects in any year.

[jersey cubs fan]

Welcome to the forums, popular opinion here on the forums is that once you reach a certain age your done for and no matter what kind of numbers you put up at AAA you don't deserve a shot at playing in the majors. I don't agree, but that seems to be the prevailing thought here. It seems to be based on what other players have done at similar ages after putting up similar numbers. Apparently thier numbers are suppose to be written off as some sort of fluke that can't possibly be replicated at the major league level.

 

 

What's with the condescending tone?

 

Of course people base their opinions on what players are capable of on what other players have done. A guy who was pretty much a mediocre minor league player until he turns 25 and has a few trips around the easiest hitters league out there isn't somebody you hand a starting job to. It would be negligent. I am one of the people who think he's worth a spot on the bench, because he could give you some power from time to time. But it would be a horrible decision to let him open the season as the starting first baseman. You would be throwing away the season and there is no good reason to throw away a season.

[Sammy Sofa]

My personal feeling is that 2012 will be a throw away year. Theo won't say that publicly but I think that's the way he will look at it as well. I think there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people here when that becomes obvious, although it may never be that obvious. it's the perfect time to try LaHair and see if he's for real. The popular opinions here bother me sometimes and there are a lot of bobble heads here that just go along with that opinion and join in running off whoever disagrees with them. Hell I could be wrong and maybe Theo will go out and get all of the pieces needed to make this team competitive in 2012. LaHair could just be a other Zuleta. That's not my opinion though.

 

Why would it be a "throw away year?"

[Little Slide Rooter]

My personal feeling is that 2012 will be a throw away year. Theo won't say that publicly but I think that's the way he will look at it as well. I think there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people here when that becomes obvious, although it may never be that obvious. it's the perfect time to try LaHair and see if he's for real. The popular opinions here bother me sometimes and there are a lot of bobble heads here that just go along with that opinion and join in running off whoever disagrees with them. Hell I could be wrong and maybe Theo will go out and get all of the pieces needed to make this team competitive in 2012. LaHair could just be a other Zuleta. That's not my opinion though.

 

Why would it be a "throw away year?"

 

If Fielder and Pujols werent on the market, I might agree. I don't like the term "throw away year", but without significant help, it would probaby be dedicted to building and seeing what guys like LaHair, Colvin, and LeMahieu are really worth.

 

The fact remains that if you want to build a team that can win in the next few years, that's where you start. That would give us some good frame work to build on:

 

1. Jackson CF

2. Castro SS

3.

4. Fielder/Pujols 1B

5.

6.

7. Soto C

8.

 

There are obviously plenty of holes to fill in the long run but getting a monster bat like that makes it a hell of a lot easier and could be the difference between a 2-3 year building process or a 5+ year one.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why the [expletive] do you want to see more from Colvin? We know what he's worth.

[Vinestal]

My personal feeling is that 2012 will be a throw away year. Theo won't say that publicly but I think that's the way he will look at it as well. I think there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people here when that becomes obvious, although it may never be that obvious. it's the perfect time to try LaHair and see if he's for real. The popular opinions here bother me sometimes and there are a lot of bobble heads here that just go along with that opinion and join in running off whoever disagrees with them. Hell I could be wrong and maybe Theo will go out and get all of the pieces needed to make this team competitive in 2012. LaHair could just be a other Zuleta. That's not my opinion though.

 

Why would it be a "throw away year?"

 

To say it more clearly I don't think that the team we will field this coming year will be a playoff caliber team. I also don't think we'll sign Fielder or Puljos, but it remains a possibility. I just hate seeing people write off a player who could potentially be very good just because he was a late bloomer and it's a rarity for his type to ultimately produce at the major league level. I think if we are going to be a mediocre team we may as well give the guy a shot. If I thought we were defiantly going to be a playoff team next year I probably wouldn't want to risk it. My opinion about how LaHair is used in 2012 is largely based on how I see the off season playing out under Theo/Jed and I realize that most people here are trumpeting the 2 front war theory here. I just don't see our odds of being able to compete and build simultaneously in 2012 as very realistic. I think that 2013 will likely be the year that 2 front strategy begins to be a realistic possibility. There are just to many holes in our roster. If it pans out differently it will be because Theo/Jed pull off some real miracles this off season.

[jersey cubs fan]

To say it more clearly I don't think that the team we will field this coming year will be a playoff caliber team. I also don't think we'll sign Fielder or Puljos, but it remains a possibility. I just hate seeing people write off a player who could potentially be very good just because he was a late bloomer and it's a rarity for his type to ultimately produce at the major league level. I think if we are going to be a mediocre team we may as well give the guy a shot.

 

Saying he could potentially be very good is just ignoring the facts about what he has done in his career and the trajectory that baseball players take over their careers.

 

I think if we do stuff like give him a shot we will struggle to be mediocre and there is no good reason to purposefully tank a season because you want to see if there is a one in a bilion chance that Bryan Lahair turns into a very good everyday first baseman.

[Vinestal]

To say it more clearly I don't think that the team we will field this coming year will be a playoff caliber team. I also don't think we'll sign Fielder or Puljos, but it remains a possibility. I just hate seeing people write off a player who could potentially be very good just because he was a late bloomer and it's a rarity for his type to ultimately produce at the major league level. I think if we are going to be a mediocre team we may as well give the guy a shot.

 

Saying he could potentially be very good is just ignoring the facts about what he has done in his career and the trajectory that baseball players take over their careers.

 

I think if we do stuff like give him a shot we will struggle to be mediocre and there is no good reason to purposefully tank a season because you want to see if there is a one in a bilion chance that Bryan Lahair turns into a very good everyday first baseman.

I guess I feel its very unlikely that playing LaHair is going to be the difference between playoffs and tanking. I think its more likely he'd just be the difference between mediocrity and tanking and to me if your going to be mediocre I'd just rather you tanked anyway.

[jersey cubs fan]

To say it more clearly I don't think that the team we will field this coming year will be a playoff caliber team. I also don't think we'll sign Fielder or Puljos, but it remains a possibility. I just hate seeing people write off a player who could potentially be very good just because he was a late bloomer and it's a rarity for his type to ultimately produce at the major league level. I think if we are going to be a mediocre team we may as well give the guy a shot.

 

Saying he could potentially be very good is just ignoring the facts about what he has done in his career and the trajectory that baseball players take over their careers.

 

I think if we do stuff like give him a shot we will struggle to be mediocre and there is no good reason to purposefully tank a season because you want to see if there is a one in a bilion chance that Bryan Lahair turns into a very good everyday first baseman.

I guess I feel its very unlikely that playing LaHair is going to be the difference between playoffs and tanking. I think its more likely he'd just be the difference between mediocrity and tanking and to me if your going to be mediocre I'd just rather you tanked anyway.

There's no good reason why this team has to be mediocre.

 

And there difference between what LaHair could be expected to bring to the table compared with one of the two available free agents is enormous, both now, and over the next several years.

 

 

Purposefully starting the season with him at 1B would be negligent.

[Guest]

I guess I feel its very unlikely that playing LaHair is going to be the difference between playoffs and tanking. I think its more likely he'd just be the difference between mediocrity and tanking and to me if your going to be mediocre I'd just rather you tanked anyway.

 

Why? To pick 7 spots better in the first round for a player who's 3-5 years away? To get a more concrete idea of what you have in LaHair just in time for him to turn 30?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I guess I feel its very unlikely that playing LaHair is going to be the difference between playoffs and tanking. I think its more likely he'd just be the difference between mediocrity and tanking and to me if your going to be mediocre I'd just rather you tanked anyway.

 

Why? To pick 7 spots better in the first round for a player who's 3-5 years away? To get a more concrete idea of what you have in LaHair just in time for him to turn 30?

 

There's really no reason to get a feel for LaHair. More than likely, he's either Jack Cust if we're lucky or any number of AAAA guys who have been given a chance at the big league level if we're not. Maybe we could even get a couple of Ryan Ludwick or Casey McGehee years out of him, but that possibility isn't worth passing on Fielder or Pujols. If you have the resources to sign a guy like Fielder or Pujols, you have to go ahead and do it. They'll likely be around for 6-8 years, and even if 2012 is a "lost year" they'll still be there to build around.

 

I definitely think that if we didn't get one for one reason or another I'd give LaHair a year or 2 in the sun while Team Epstein execute their long term plan rather rather than giving a multi year deal to Pena or Kotchman or giving up anything of value for Loney.

[Guest]

I definitely think that if we didn't get one for one reason or another I'd give LaHair a year or 2 in the sun while Team Epstein execute their long term plan rather rather than giving a multi year deal to Pena or Kotchman or giving up anything of value for Loney.

 

Because Pena/Kotchman/Loney are the only alternatives if you don't sign Pujols/Fielder.

[Vinestal]

I give up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If you want to just tank 2012's 1b production, the Padres have a vaguely interesting unprotected AAA first baseman that Hoyer would be familiar with. I'd give him a thousand chances to start before LaHair.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=clark-002mat

[Guest]

I give up.

Let me see if i can summarize your position:

 

- you feel the cubshave too many holes to compete in 2012

- you feel we will be in a better place to compete in 2013

- as a result, you do not believe we will sign pujols/fielder

 

Given those àssumptions, you would rather give LaHair a shot than go with a retread at first base.

 

I don't think this is the best place for talking about the three assumptions I listed first. I disagree with all three, btw, but if you want to talk about those, lets talk about it in baseball discussions. I'll just say this - if management does nothing in 2012 to plug some of the holes on the team with long term fixes, we will be in much worse shape heading into 2013 than we are this of season.

 

Now, if your assumptions are correct and the team is truly punting on next year, then I guess I'd be fine sticking LaHair at first as it wouldn't really matter anyway.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I definitely think that if we didn't get one for one reason or another I'd give LaHair a year or 2 in the sun while Team Epstein execute their long term plan rather rather than giving a multi year deal to Pena or Kotchman or giving up anything of value for Loney.

 

Because Pena/Kotchman/Loney are the only alternatives if you don't sign Pujols/Fielder.

 

Who did you have in mind? For 2012, pretty much as far as known available options, that's pretty much all I can think of. If Miguel Cabrera or Justin Morneau suddenly become available, then great.

[Guest]

If you want to just tank 2012's 1b production, the Padres have a vaguely interesting unprotected AAA first baseman that Hoyer would be familiar with. I'd give him a thousand chances to start before LaHair.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=clark-002mat

I don't think he's all that much more interesting than lahair, tbh.

[A New Era]

My personal feeling is that 2012 will be a throw away year. Theo won't say that publicly but I think that's the way he will look at it as well. I think there's gonna be a lot of unhappy people here when that becomes obvious, although it may never be that obvious. it's the perfect time to try LaHair and see if he's for real. The popular opinions here bother me sometimes and there are a lot of bobble heads here that just go along with that opinion and join in running off whoever disagrees with them. Hell I could be wrong and maybe Theo will go out and get all of the pieces needed to make this team competitive in 2012. LaHair could just be a other Zuleta. That's not my opinion though.

 

Hypothetically. (I don't think Theo is going to throw away 2012). I mean there are a whole bunch of shades of grey between "throwaway" and Hendry's style of trading young for ML players "Go for it at all costs". If Theo's building this offseason edges a little bit closer to the "throwaway" camp. Meaning no really huge signings, but still getting some young guys with upside and potential, making some trades for ML ready guys that aren't stellar now, but could improve. Then in that situation you MIGHT see LaHair at 1B.

 

The way I feel, if you are going that route, why not play him at 1B, hope he has a pretty good year, then try to sucker someone into giving you some good talent via trade after or during the 2012 season?

[biittner77]

I guess I feel its very unlikely that playing LaHair is going to be the difference between playoffs and tanking. I think its more likely he'd just be the difference between mediocrity and tanking and to me if your going to be mediocre I'd just rather you tanked anyway.

 

Isn't this self fullfilling prophecy?

 

I could see perhaps giving LaHair a shot if he was the bridge to a better option that isn't quite ready. The Cubs don't really have anybody like that.

[Guest]

I definitely think that if we didn't get one for one reason or another I'd give LaHair a year or 2 in the sun while Team Epstein execute their long term plan rather rather than giving a multi year deal to Pena or Kotchman or giving up anything of value for Loney.

 

Because Pena/Kotchman/Loney are the only alternatives if you don't sign Pujols/Fielder.

 

Who did you have in mind? For 2012, pretty much as far as known available options, that's pretty much all I can think of. If Miguel Cabrera or Justin Morneau suddenly become available, then great.

 

It's a little easier if you try to think of options that wouldn't be preferable to LaHair. The answer is most everyone. LaHair is not good, and even if a miracle happens and he's okay then you're still stuck with a 30 year old that has one year under his belt and you're back where you started. If you can't find someone with a better long term prognosis than that, then you're an embarrassment of a baseball executive.

[fromthestretch]

If you want to just tank 2012's 1b production, the Padres have a vaguely interesting unprotected AAA first baseman that Hoyer would be familiar with. I'd give him a thousand chances to start before LaHair.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=clark-002mat

 

If we're looking at the Padres, another interesting name is Kyle Blanks. Injuries have derailed him a bit the past couple seasons, but he's still relatively young. I don't know what San Diego's plans are for him.