Re: Darvish

[Little Slide Rooter]

Matsuzaka was a 4-WAR pitcher his first year with the Red Sox and a 3.3 WAR pitcher in 167 innings his second year. That's pretty good.

 

ERAs their last five seasons in Japan

Matsuzaka

3.68, 2.83, 2.90, 2.30, 2.13

 

Darvish

1.82, 1.88, 1.73, 1.78, 1.44

 

I have no problem thinking Darvish can be a 5-6 fWAR pitcher immediately.

 

He'll also be 2 years younger than Daisuke when posted. He could potentially be a steal at 5/100.

 

True, but the list of teams that can afford to hand out a 5/100 contract isn't a long one, and those who can hand it out with such a risk attached is even shorter. Obviously the Yankees would find a way if interested, probably the Red Sox and Rangers. Other teams like the Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Mariners could probably afford him, but I think that they're all in a position that if they were to give a player that kind of contract it needs to be closer to a sure thing and could be wiser to hang on to the money for next years pitching rich free agent class. Even the newly free spending Marlins, who likely have the money might prefer to dangle LoMo for someone like David Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza, or John Danks.

 

Of the Japanese phenoms since that became a big thing, Nomo, Irabu, Ichiro, both Matsuis, Daisuke, and Fukudome have been the big names. Of them, Ichiro and Hideki have lived up to the hype. Nomo had a great year or 2 and was serviceable for several years. Daisuke had 1 great year and a few OK years before getting hurt. Kosuke and Kaz were both serviceable but didnt live up to the hype. Irabu was a bust. There was also the guy the Dodgers signed in 2005 who was somewhat of a big deal but I think he got homesick or something and didnt make it through his first season. Kai Igawa was also a huge bust and still toiling in the Yankees system last I checked. Kenji Jojima, Hiroki Kuroda, Takashi Saito, and Hideki Okajima were also big names but not quite as high up as the top tier and all have had decent success, but aside from Kuroda fell off after a few years although Saito seems to have ressurected his career. There have been others who have been decent starters or role players. For the right price, it's a good idea to bring over players from Japan, but theres a reason why guys like Matt Murton and Larry Bigbie go there to become superstars and many others go there to attempt to resurrect failed-failing careers. While I'd be OK with taking the risk on Darvish, I can understand teams shying away.

[Guest]

Darvish or his Iranian dad once said that Darvish would only play for the Yankees. My guess is if the Yanks bid they will get him.

 

Yu nor his dad has any say on where he plays (well I guess they can decide between the winning bidder or going back to Japan)

It's the Yankees or back to Japan.

[ctcf]

Darvish or his Iranian dad once said that Darvish would only play for the Yankees. My guess is if the Yanks bid they will get him.

 

Yu nor his dad has any say on where he plays (well I guess they can decide between the winning bidder or going back to Japan)

It's the Yankees or back to Japan.

 

I highly doubt they'd go to all this trouble. Assuming they actually made that statement, it's a negotiating ploy at best.

[TruffleShuffle]

i assume there is something in place to stop the cubs (or whoever) from dropping like half a billion on his posting fee and then making no attempt to sign him?

[jersey cubs fan]

i assume there is something in place to stop the cubs (or whoever) from dropping like half a billion on his posting fee and then making no attempt to sign him?

I think it's up to the Japanese team to accept a serious bid. An MLB team that does not negotiate in good faith will also damage its reputation.

[Little Slide Rooter]

i assume there is something in place to stop the cubs (or whoever) from dropping like half a billion on his posting fee and then making no attempt to sign him?

I think it's up to the Japanese team to accept a serious bid. An MLB team that does not negotiate in good faith will also damage its reputation.

 

There should be some money at risk though, because otherwise, what's to stop someone likeTampa Bay or Toronto to offer an insane posting fee and then never offer a serious contract to block the Yankees and Red Sox.

[shnsajax]

I really thought during DiceK the posting fee was paid regardless of signing him. Which is way too risky.

[davearm2]

I really thought during DiceK the posting fee was paid regardless of signing him. Which is way too risky.

My recollection is that the posting fee is immediately placed in escrow by the winning bidder.

 

If a contract is signed, the escrow is paid to the Japanese team. If not, it's returned to the MLB team.

 

There is an expectation that the winning bidder will negotiate a contract in good faith. I can't recall what the penalties are for failing to do so, or how that would be determined, but there are rules/safeguards preventing a huge posting fee as a blocking strategy.

[ctcf]

BNightengale Bob Nightengale

The #rangers will be a huge player in #Darvish bidding for Japanese star #mlb

[ctcf]

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that free agent outfielders Carlos Beltran and Michael Cuddyer appear to be "too expensive" for the Red Sox.

Cafardo says the Sox don't want to go over the $178 million luxury tax threshold, and after David Ortiz accepted arbitration, they're evidently not far away from that number. He anticipates that they'll only be able to afford a "mid-level right fielder" at this point and thinks "even Cody Ross might cost too much." The Sox are also searching for a No. 5 starter, but Cafardo says their budget for one is only "about $3-$5 million." The apparent financial crunch that has the Red Sox, according to Cafardo, "going about things as if they were the Pirates or Royals," is also a factor in why they seem to prefer trading for Andrew Bailey rather than just signing Ryan Madson.

 

Sounds like we don't have to worry about the Sox getting in on the bidding.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

We should know who the winning bid is early this week correct?

 

I still think Texas goes balls out for him. To me it feels like the Yankees are getting much more cautious with unknown pitching comodoties.

 

I would definitely love to watch a rotation starting with Garza and Darvish next season though.

[ctcf]

We should know who the winning bid is early this week correct?

 

I still think Texas goes balls out for him. To me it feels like the Yankees are getting much more cautious with unknown pitching comodoties.

 

I would definitely love to watch a rotation starting with Garza and Darvish next season though.

 

That would make next season a lot more bearable.

 

I think the Yanks are out as well. Everything I've read regarding them just gives me the impression that they're not looking for that much pitching help. From what I can tell, they never even tried to get in the Buehrle or Wilson races.

 

I see the Rangers as being the Vegas favorite for this just because they need to make a splash now. I think Jays will be in as well as they have seemed interested in dropping some cash for talent, although I'd wonder if they have the upfront money for the bid. The Nationals are another team I wouldn't count out as they've chased numerous free agents with legitimate interest and been stiffed repeatedly. Adding a healthy Strausberg and Darvish to that team would make them look pretty formidable. The Cubs rounding obviously round out the list of serious contenders as they need young pitching and lest we forget, Theo and Jed were both involved in the winning bid for Dice-K, so they are probably the most experienced front office in this race as far as this process is concerned.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We should know who the winning bid is early this week correct?

 

Apparently it's four business days and not four days as previously thought, so the bidding is closed late Wednesday night.

 

Officially, Nippon has till a week from Tuesday to accept or decline the bid, and the team remains secret until then unless it leaks.

 

So it won't be official until at least Wednesday night (14th) and possibly as late as a week from Tuesday (20th). Leaks could come sooner.

[jersey cubs fan]

i assume there is something in place to stop the cubs (or whoever) from dropping like half a billion on his posting fee and then making no attempt to sign him?

I think it's up to the Japanese team to accept a serious bid. An MLB team that does not negotiate in good faith will also damage its reputation.

 

There should be some money at risk though, because otherwise, what's to stop someone likeTampa Bay or Toronto to offer an insane posting fee and then never offer a serious contract to block the Yankees and Red Sox.

 

They can offer it, but the other team doesn't have to accept it. It's in the Japanese teams' best interest to make sure the winning bidder is seriously attempting to sign the player.

 

 

 

Plus, Tampa might not have $50 million in cash available to put into escrow.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They can offer it, but the other team doesn't have to accept it. It's in the Japanese teams' best interest to make sure the winning bidder is seriously attempting to sign the player.

 

Plus, Tampa might not have $50 million in cash available to put into escrow.

 

The Japanese team will only know one thing: The total of the winning bid. They have to accept or decline based on that.

 

They won't know what the other bids are and won't have the option of accepting one of them, and they won't know who made that bid until they've accepted.

[Guest]

If they open the envelope and see the winning bid was one jillion dollars, then get Darvish back because the winning bidder didn't answer his phone calls, they aren't just going to say "oh well".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If they open the envelope and see the winning bid was one jillion dollars, then get Darvish back because the winning bidder didn't answer his phone calls, they aren't just going to say "oh well".

 

I was referring more to the (still absurd) idea that a team like the Rays might bid something like $50 million to try to block the Yankees from getting him.

 

There might be consequences after the fact, but it's not like the Japanese team would know immediately something was up when they got the bid amount.

[Butterscup1679666578]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

estimate of 1 mlb exec what it will take to win yu darvish: $112.5M (thats posting plus contract). im guessing a bit lower

[SouthSideRyan]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

estimate of 1 mlb exec what it will take to win yu darvish: $112.5M (thats posting plus contract). im guessing a bit lower

 

That's not far off from Dice-K

[MWV]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

estimate of 1 mlb exec what it will take to win yu darvish: $112.5M (thats posting plus contract). im guessing a bit lower

How long a contract is implied here?

[Guest]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

estimate of 1 mlb exec what it will take to win yu darvish: $112.5M (thats posting plus contract). im guessing a bit lower

 

That's not far off from Dice-K

That's just an insane amount.

[squally1313]

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

estimate of 1 mlb exec what it will take to win yu darvish: $112.5M (thats posting plus contract). im guessing a bit lower

 

That's not far off from Dice-K

That's just an insane amount.

 

As MWV implied above, it all depends on the length of the contract being signed. If the team gives him a 6 year deal, $112 total isn't that outrageous.

[SouthSideRyan]

DiceK got 6/103M including posting.

[Guest]

I'm in.

[Guest]

6/112? Please and thank you.