Re: Darvish

[mul21]

Scotti, I know I agree completely that we should develop pitching and buy hitters, if it comes down to it.

 

Oh yeah baby, the MacPhail/Hendry plan. Worked like a charm last time.

 

Better than the strategy of the last 5 years. At least they ended up with Wood, Prior, Cruz, Z, and a few others out of it. They haven't developed a decent starter in years (unless you count Wells). And I'm not agreeing with him either by the way. Just pointing out that the overall draft/develop strategy has been awful for a while.

[brinoch]

In a vacuum, sure, I'd like Darvish. But this isn't a vacuum.

 

For me, the question of Darvish boils down to the money spent on the draft and international signings. How much is the posting fee? Most of the money spent in the draft and in international signings is of course wasted -- most prospects never make it to the majors. If you spend the equivalent (or more) of a year's worth of the draft/international pot for a guaranteed major league player, is that worth it? What's the financial break-point? Also, there's the question of Darvish vs. Wilson. Which would you rather have?

 

I don't have the answers, but the questions give me some pause on Darvish (or any other posted player).

[treebird]

if we sign pujols we should give him 10/100 with a 200 million dollar signing bonus, that way when he declines late in the contract it won't matter since he's only making ten million a year

[Guest]

if we sign pujols we should give him 10/100 with a 200 million dollar signing bonus, that way when he declines late in the contract it won't matter since he's only making ten million a year

It's a rather extreme example to make the point that Kyle and I made earlier in the thread. Which Scotti already clarified somewhat.

[shnsajax]

Just curious but what's the max posting fee you would give here, or would you rather stay away given the salary requirements.?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Some rumors going around now that he may not be posted after all, especially because it's taking so long. The posting process can take awhile, so waiting too long means teams may have already spent their money.

[Guest]

Some rumors going around now that he may not be posted after all, especially because it's taking so long. The posting process can take awhile, so waiting too long means teams may have already spent their money.

It's my fault for not including him in the FA contest.

[Vinestal]

Some rumors going around now that he may not be posted after all, especially because it's taking so long. The posting process can take awhile, so waiting too long means teams may have already spent their money.

It's been mentioned before but bears repeating, he could just wait one more year and not have to go through the posting process at all. I could see reasons why he'd want to do that.

[davell]

Darvish only has ONE more year? I thought Japanese players had to wait 10 years before they could come over without their team controlling the process?

[Vinestal]

Darvish only has ONE more year? I thought Japanese players had to wait 10 years before they could come over without their team controlling the process?

It's quite possible I'm wrong, but I thought I remembered comments about him being able to become a free agent next year. Wow 10 years is kinda ludicrous.

[Guest]

Darvish only has ONE more year? I thought Japanese players had to wait 10 years before they could come over without their team controlling the process?

It's quite possible I'm wrong, but I thought I remembered comments about him being able to become a free agent next year. Wow 10 years is kinda ludicrous.

4 years after draft to 40 man + 3 option years + 6 years of team control for MLB.

[davell]

Oops, I meant how long a Japanese team has players under control, not American, if it came off that way........

[SouthSideRyan]

Tim was pointing out how MLB teams have control over a player for 10+ years, but it's not really analagous because you can't have him in the majors for 10 years.

[Guest]

Tim was pointing out how MLB teams have control over a player for 10+ years, but it's not really analagous because you can't have him in the majors for 10 years.

They don't really have the same structure with minor leagues, though, so that 10 years represents how long the player is under control after signing. It's pretty analogous to the states.

[Splendid Splinter]

I thought Darvish could leave next year as well without going through the posting process.

[Guest]

Darvish won't be a free agent until after the 2014 NPB season.

[RammyFanny]

That said, the Cubs are reportedly one of the teams planning to hold a private workout for touted Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes, 26. And the Cubs have been doing background work on potential Japanese free agent Yu Darvish, according to a team source.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8814413-573/cubs-rebuilding-process-begins-when-gms-meet-in-milwaukee.html

[davell]

Again, Darvish falls into "paying for his prine years". Which is a great thing, other than what it looks like it'll cost for him. If his posting fee was looking like it'd be around 25 or 30 mill, with him accepting a 4 or 5 year deal at around 8 mill per, I'd be much more into going after him. But the bottom linr for me is there just hasn't been all that much success coming from Japanese pitching. Nomo was excellent at first, sucked, got decent again and overall had a very solid career. Daisuke was worth no where near his contract. Hell, the best value out of starters ever coming out of Japan is probably Kuroda, who didn't even have to be posted. I know it's wrong to lump all Japanese pitchers together, but I'm not wanting us to spend 40 or 50 mill on a posting fee and then 75 mill or so to him as well, unless we all of a sudden have a 200 mill payroll at our disposal. Out of all the big ticket guys, this is the one I want the least by far.

[Guest]

It's tough to point to Daisuke and use him as a cautionary tale for Japanese pitchers. If anything, he's more of a tale of why to avoid spending $100M on any pitcher.

 

There wasn't anything wrong with Daisuke's stuff. His first several years in MLB he was able to strike out over 8/9ip. He showed command issues starting in his second year, but it's tough to say whether that was going to happen anyway or if it is because of the injuries that started appearing that year. Indeed, it is the injuries that have caused that contract to be a poor investment as they have both kept him off the mound and limited him when on the bump.

 

Is it a good idea to bid for and sign Darvish to a similar deal? I'm not sure if it is a whole lot more risky than it is to sign any pitcher to a deal that large.

[Guest]

The Cubs may also throw their money toward the Japanese market and put in a bid for right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish. The 25-year-old right-handed star pitcher may leave Japan, but getting a Japanese player away from his original team is a complicated issue.

 

The system is called “posting”. Darvish’s present team in Japan, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, will take sealed bids to buy his services from their team. The highest bid gets the opportunity to negotiate a contract with the player. As an example, in 2006, the Red Sox’s blind bid of $51 million to speak with Daisuke Matsuzaka went to Matsuzaka’s team, the Seibu Lions. Boston then worked out a $50 million deal with Matsuzaka and his agent. If the highest bidding team can not work out a deal with the player, then the posting money is returned to it.

 

The Cubs, like numerious other teams, are interested in Darvish, who is 6-5 and of Iranian and Japanese descent. Baseball scouts compare Darvish to former Yankees and Mets starter David Cone at a similar point in their careers. According to two scouts, Darvish would go right into a major league team’s rotation and be considered a No. 1 or 2 starter depending on the depth in that team’s rotation.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7266/with-management-in-place-time-to-pick-team

[davell]

I'm starting to change my tune on Darvish some. I don't see the Yanks or Red Sox being big players here, so maybe you could get him around 30 or 35 mill as far as the posting fee goes. Not sure how they'll figure that towards payroll, but if you can then sign him for around 10 to 12 mill per, you've got a young frontline starter fairly cheaply just entering his prime. I'm thinking I like this idea more than Wilson and definitely much, much better than Buehrle obviously.

[davell]

No clue where to put this, but Levine says we have a baseball budget of 200 mill or so for 2012. That includes major league payroll, employee salaries, running the minor leagues, amateur draft, and international free agents. So the question I have is how much does it cost to run the minors and how much do we think the employee salaries are?

[Tyrant]

So the question I have is how much does it cost to run the minors and how much do we think the employee salaries are?

 

I don't think anyone has a clue about it unless they have access to the financials.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So the question I have is how much does it cost to run the minors and how much do we think the employee salaries are?

 

I don't think anyone has a clue about it unless they have access to the financials.

 

Just going by the few times an MLB team has released full financials, I'd guess between $35 and $65 million. Which is of course a humongous range and thus worthless.

[dew1679666265]

Just going by the few times an MLB team has released full financials, I'd guess between $35 and $65 million. Which is of course a humongous range and thus worthless.

 

Not entirely worthless. Given your estimated range and if Levine's number is correct, it would indicate for sure that the Cubs will enter next year with either the same payroll or higher.