Heyman - Cubs looking to eat "big bucks" to trade Z or Sori

[dew1679666265]

Given Soriano's year and likely continued regression, it will take a LOT less than $7 million to replace him.

 

Is a .730 OPS the baseline for what he's going to do going forward? Or is he going to rebound some and get back into the .800 OPS area he's been in each of the past 3 years (excluding 2009 since he was hurt the entire time)?

 

He's clearly regressing and expecting a lower than .800 OPS is pretty safe. However, as streaky a hitter as he is, if we're going to trade him for no real prospects and pay 60+% of his remaining money, we might as well keep him and see if he gets on a hot streak and somebody bites in the offseason or next year's deadline.

[SouthSideRyan]

Get rid of him to make me feel better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

For Soriano, eat whatever you have to just to get rid of the burden of having him here 3 years and his lousy play at the plate and field. It would be such a breath of fresh air to have him gone and open up that space in the field and lineup to someone else.

 

So will you feel better if were paying Soriano to hit .255/.775 with 20some HR for the Orioles while we have Lou M0ntenez hitting .235/.650?

[Guest]

Given Soriano's year and likely continued regression, it will take a LOT less than $7 million to replace him.

 

Is a .730 OPS the baseline for what he's going to do going forward? Or is he going to rebound some and get back into the .800 OPS area he's been in each of the past 3 years (excluding 2009 since he was hurt the entire time)?

 

He's clearly regressing and expecting a lower than .800 OPS is pretty safe. However, as streaky a hitter as he is, if we're going to trade him for no real prospects and pay 60+% of his remaining money, we might as well keep him and see if he gets on a hot streak and somebody bites in the offseason or next year's deadline.

 

I understand the danger of being too bearish on Soriano at a given point because his performance runs so hot and cold, but the certainty of his performance is the whole point. Soriano isn’t putting together another 7 WAR season, or even a 5 WAR season, so all that’s left is to hope for him to continue to be a ~3 WAR guy going forward. But he’s 35, has had a bunch of nagging injuries, and is now not going to meet that threshold for the 2nd time in 3 years. If you can get 7 million per year back for trading him, what’s the downside? Any platoon in LF could reasonably be expected to approximate what Soriano has done, with a similar chance of exceeding it. And that platoon would cost a fraction of the 7 million in savings, meaning a greater possibility of adding a big time 1B and SP while keeping Ramirez and not losing any production in the process. Maybe you could get a little more cost savings next year, or a little more player return, but those benefits pale with the ability to re-shape the roster this coming offseason, IMO.

[PrimeTime]

For Soriano, eat whatever you have to just to get rid of the burden of having him here 3 years and his lousy play at the plate and field. It would be such a breath of fresh air to have him gone and open up that space in the field and lineup to someone else.

 

So will you feel better if were paying Soriano to hit .255/.775 with 20some HR for the Orioles while we have Lou M0ntenez hitting .235/.650?

 

 

Im just saying for what Soriano's doing and getting paid, we could have a player do the same for millions less. It feels were on lockdown in LF with him there, he's clearly regressing and we need some type of change. It opens the door to pull a trade or sign someone that can perhaps be beneficial to the team for the future.

[Post Count Padder]

Given Soriano's year and likely continued regression, it will take a LOT less than $7 million to replace him.

 

Is a .730 OPS the baseline for what he's going to do going forward? Or is he going to rebound some and get back into the .800 OPS area he's been in each of the past 3 years (excluding 2009 since he was hurt the entire time)?

 

He's clearly regressing and expecting a lower than .800 OPS is pretty safe. However, as streaky a hitter as he is, if we're going to trade him for no real prospects and pay 60+% of his remaining money, we might as well keep him and see if he gets on a hot streak and somebody bites in the offseason or next year's deadline.

 

I understand the danger of being too bearish on Soriano at a given point because his performance runs so hot and cold, but the certainty of his performance is the whole point. Soriano isn’t putting together another 7 WAR season, or even a 5 WAR season, so all that’s left is to hope for him to continue to be a ~3 WAR guy going forward. But he’s 35, has had a bunch of nagging injuries, and is now not going to meet that threshold for the 2nd time in 3 years. If you can get 7 million per year back for trading him, what’s the downside? Any platoon in LF could reasonably be expected to approximate what Soriano has done, with a similar chance of exceeding it. And that platoon would cost a fraction of the 7 million in savings, meaning a greater possibility of adding a big time 1B and SP while keeping Ramirez and not losing any production in the process. Maybe you could get a little more cost savings next year, or a little more player return, but those benefits pale with the ability to re-shape the roster this coming offseason, IMO.

This. He's not the same player anymore and he's very replaceable by someone who could put up the same numbers at a fraction of the cost. I understand the free agent market is bare, but going off Soriano's numbers and the likely downward trend he's on, we don't need to break the bank to find his replacement and we have money to spend elsewhere.

[erik316wttn]

We shouldn't have to eat a ton to move Z. Even 5-6 million should net us a good prospect or two for him if you're really looking to move him, but I don't see why everyone is itching to. Sori I can see, but why Z?

[Little Slide Rooter]

We shouldn't have to eat a ton to move Z. Even 5-6 million should net us a good prospect or two for him if you're really looking to move him, but I don't see why everyone is itching to. Sori I can see, but why Z?

 

To Cubs fans, there are only 2 types of pirchers, aces and bums. Unfortunately, Z isnt an ace, and is therefore a bum and must go.

[BeerHere]

From the BA prospect/trade chat:

 

Q: What can we expect from the cubs over the next few days? It would apear to be the optimal time to stock the system and trade away Marshall, Baker, Johnson, Fukudome, Pena, and Ramirez, but it doesnt appear Hendry wants to admit his failure.

 

Jim Callis: I don't think Hendry is afraid to admit things haven't worked out. Ramirez doesn't want to waive his no-trade clause. Wood took a lot less money to come back to Chicago, so the Cubs won't betray him with a trade. That leaves them with a lot of expensive overachievers or role players to deal, and that's not going to bring back much. So don't expect any big-time prospects to come to the Cubs via trade.

[EhDubya]

If we end up paying 75+% of Sori's contract and don't get a worthwhile prospect I won't be too happy. I'd rather we just turn him into a crazy-expensive Daryl Ward-type and use him as a pinch hitter, DH him in inter-league play, and then hope he can provide a pinch-hitting role when rosters expand and playoff push happens. Or hope that in a limited role his numbers appear better and we can dump him next trade deadline/waivers when his value is higher.

 

Zambrano, yeah, better be a good return.

[erik316wttn]

Pena should net a good return. There is always a market for LH power.

[Irrelevant Dude]

If the Cubs plan on releasing him at the end of the year anyways, why not try to get as much salary relief as possible? Even if it is only a few million in savings?

Whoa, who said the Cubs are planning to outright release Soriano? That might be a possibility 2 years from now, but releasing him is basically saying that he is not even worth the major league minimum salary. As bad as Soriano has been, his contract is a sunk cost so I would still rather have him on the team than not.

[UMFan83]

Given Soriano's year and likely continued regression, it will take a LOT less than $7 million to replace him.

 

Is a .730 OPS the baseline for what he's going to do going forward? Or is he going to rebound some and get back into the .800 OPS area he's been in each of the past 3 years (excluding 2009 since he was hurt the entire time)?

 

You can't exclude 2009 when Soriano has some level of injuries every year. The way I look at it now is 2 of the last 3 seasons he's had a sub .740 OPS. And after a hot start in 2010, he really tailed off. In fact, if you take the last half of last year and tack it onto this year so far, this is what he's done:

 

191 G

705 PA

651 AB

155 H

39 2B

2 3B

30 HR

95 RBI

37 BB

4 SB

168 K

.238/.277/.442/.719

This is pretty much the Soriano that we're left with. Maybe he'll go on a hot streak starting tonight and skew that, but I think it would be foolish to expect a .800+ season OPS from Soriano ever again.

[dew1679666265]

This is pretty much the Soriano that we're left with. Maybe he'll go on a hot streak starting tonight and skew that, but I think it would be foolish to expect a .800+ season OPS from Soriano ever again.

 

I'm not so much excluding 2009 as pointing out that he was severely hampered by injuries. He really shouldn't have been playing at all and hasn't had that level of injury since.

 

That season did happen, though, and considering he's also struggling pretty badly this season, it's a concern. I'm still not ready to say he's definitely a .730 OPS/1.5 WAR player as his baseline, though.

[dew1679666265]

I understand the danger of being too bearish on Soriano at a given point because his performance runs so hot and cold, but the certainty of his performance is the whole point. Soriano isn’t putting together another 7 WAR season, or even a 5 WAR season, so all that’s left is to hope for him to continue to be a ~3 WAR guy going forward. But he’s 35, has had a bunch of nagging injuries, and is now not going to meet that threshold for the 2nd time in 3 years. If you can get 7 million per year back for trading him, what’s the downside? Any platoon in LF could reasonably be expected to approximate what Soriano has done, with a similar chance of exceeding it. And that platoon would cost a fraction of the 7 million in savings, meaning a greater possibility of adding a big time 1B and SP while keeping Ramirez and not losing any production in the process. Maybe you could get a little more cost savings next year, or a little more player return, but those benefits pale with the ability to re-shape the roster this coming offseason, IMO.

 

These are good points and are the reasons I don't flat out oppose trading him if we're eating more than 50% of his salary. Maybe I'm simply putting too much stock into last season, but just a year ago he was a 3 WAR player and I'm not certain those days are behind him.

 

A really cheap platoon could give us a 1.5-2 WAR if that's what Soriano is from this point on, but if he can give us 3+ WAR like last year, it's tough to pay almost his entire salary and get nothing in return simply to have him go away.

[dew1679666265]

If we're talking about a platoon situation, why not bring Colvin back up and platoon him and Soriano?

 

Sori's #s in limited sample against lefties this year: .297/.342/.541 with a .371 wOBA. Killing lefties for a while may serve to raise his value some and we can save more money in the offseason or at next year's deadline.

[Elwood]

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/96289884968460288

 

Buster Olney tweets:

 

Source: The Cubs trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary.

[apete6]

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/96289884968460288

 

Buster Olney tweets:

 

Source: The Cubs trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary.

 

Die in a fire, Jim Hendry. Unless we're also getting some good prospects back, why just give Zambrano away?

[Tryptamine]

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/96289884968460288

 

Buster Olney tweets:

 

Source: The Cubs trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary.

 

This has me concerned. If they trade Zambrano then competing in 2012 becomes pretty unlikely and I highly doubt the return would warrant that.

[CubColtPacer]

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/96289884968460288

 

Buster Olney tweets:

 

Source: The Cubs trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary.

 

Die in a fire, Jim Hendry. Unless we're also getting some good prospects back, why just give Zambrano away?

 

It really depends on how much money the Cubs are giving. Just giving Z away and only eating say 3 million this year and 3 million next year could be a good deal for the Cubs. There are things to be worried about with how some of Z's numbers are trending. He'll have a decent amount of value for the Cubs next year, but if they have 15 extra million to play with they could find somebody who gets more value than Z does.

[Little Slide Rooter]

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/statuses/96289884968460288

 

Buster Olney tweets:

 

Source: The Cubs trying to nudge the Yankees into taking Carlos Zambrano, offering up money to offset his salary.

 

Die in a fire, Jim Hendry. Unless we're also getting some good prospects back, why just give Zambrano away?

 

It really depends on how much money the Cubs are giving. Just giving Z away and only eating say 3 million this year and 3 million next year could be a good deal for the Cubs. There are things to be worried about with how some of Z's numbers are trending. He'll have a decent amount of value for the Cubs next year, but if they have 15 extra million to play with they could find somebody who gets more value than Z does.

 

If that were the case I wouldnt mind, but the talk seems like the Cubs will end up eating a lot more than 3 mil in this deal. The whole thing reeks of a proper fire sale.

[UMFan83]

Who cares if it is a proper fire sale? I'm not particularly worried that the Cubs are gonig to cut spending down to like $80 million, and I'm not particularly sold on Zambrano being an integral piece on the next Cubs contender.

 

So if they want to sell off Z and Soriano and save $25 million in the process, we probably got better unless Hendry sets his eyes on a couple of veteran lefty relievers.

[Sammy Sofa]

Who cares if it is a proper fire sale? I'm not particularly worried that the Cubs are gonig to cut spending down to like $80 million, and I'm not particularly sold on Zambrano being an integral piece on the next Cubs contender.

 

So if they want to sell off Z and Soriano and save $25 million in the process, we probably got better unless Hendry sets his eyes on a couple of veteran lefty relievers.

 

You've changed, man.

[Bruno7481]

Rosenthal just tweeted that the Yankess have no interest in Zambrano.

[mookie]

Ken Rosenthal is a sad sack of potatoes. I honestly can't trust anything that comes out of his little petulant mouth.