Quade goes off on Castro, Barney

[Outshined_One]

As to the first, I'd completely unscientifically estimate that OFs come up with about half of the diving catches they attempt. Maybe a bit more than half. Doesn't seem long shot to me.

 

You're pretty much doing this for the lulz, aren't you?

[Sammy Sofa]

That's BS. Diving for a ball in the outfield is not a long shot play, nor is it a high injury risk play.

 

As to the first, I'd completely unscientifically estimate that OFs come up with about half of the diving catches they attempt. Maybe a bit more than half. Doesn't seem long shot to me.

 

As to the second, I'd need it explained how the injury risk from diving in OF grass is higher than the risk of sliding headfirst into second base, where there's a fielder to collide with and a base to jam a finger/wrist on.

 

If I'm beyond ridiculous, then you're doing a horrible job of explaining why. From what I can tell, you're drawing completely arbitrary and indefensible boundaries for what is acceptable risk on a baseball field (batting, sliding, blocking the plate, etc), and what is not (diving/leaping in the outfield).

 

Diving/leaping in the outfield isn't necessary. Hitting is necessary. Sliding and blocking the plate aren't necessary, but you're much more likely to be succeed in your attempted task, which is more likely going to be in a critical position. Most of the time a player can lay out for a catch it's for a hit that will typically only result in a single. Most of the time if a player is close enough to dive it's going to hold a runner on 3rd if they were starting on 2nd. Basically the "gains" of an average OF laying out for a catch don't outweigh the "losses" because of the likelihood of them succeeding aren't very good. I mean, let's remember, this was started about Soriano. Soriano has his obvious limits as an OF. Him hauling ass and diving for catches is just going to exacerbate that, not make it better.

[Sammy Sofa]

obviously soriano isn't going balls out on every play, but given that he gets hurt a lot and has leg problems, it seems that would be a bad idea for him. the better question is, why would it make you feel better to see him sprint after a routine line drive single rather than jogging to field that routine line drive single that is still a single after he fields it and throws to second base?

 

It would be crazy if we existed in a world where we could have stats that gauge how much of a liability defensively a fielder is based on the speed they display/plays they make, etc.. You'd think davearm2 would be all over that because surely it shows that Soriano as someone who obviously would benefit from busting his ass more.

A), defensive metrics in their current state are unreliable, at best. But that's a totally separate discussion.

 

The bigger issue is, B) those metrics are never ever going to be able to tell you how many more plays a particular fielder giving <100% effort would have made with 100% effort. And that's the issue at hand here.

 

So you think Soriano would be a better OF if he ran harder out there and took more risks as a defender?

[davearm2]

As to the first, I'd completely unscientifically estimate that OFs come up with about half of the diving catches they attempt. Maybe a bit more than half. Doesn't seem long shot to me.

 

You're pretty much doing this for the lulz, aren't you?

What's your guesstimate? Obviously it must be dramatically different from 50% for you to think I'm just trolling by suggesting something so outrageous. So let's hear it.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

[davearm2]

obviously soriano isn't going balls out on every play, but given that he gets hurt a lot and has leg problems, it seems that would be a bad idea for him. the better question is, why would it make you feel better to see him sprint after a routine line drive single rather than jogging to field that routine line drive single that is still a single after he fields it and throws to second base?

 

It would be crazy if we existed in a world where we could have stats that gauge how much of a liability defensively a fielder is based on the speed they display/plays they make, etc.. You'd think davearm2 would be all over that because surely it shows that Soriano as someone who obviously would benefit from busting his ass more.

A), defensive metrics in their current state are unreliable, at best. But that's a totally separate discussion.

 

The bigger issue is, B) those metrics are never ever going to be able to tell you how many more plays a particular fielder giving <100% effort would have made with 100% effort. And that's the issue at hand here.

 

So you think Soriano would be a better OF if he ran harder out there and took more risks as a defender?

For sure yes on the running harder part. He'd catch more balls on the fly, and limit extra bases on the ones he doesn't catch on the fly. In fact this seems so fundamentally obvious that I can't believe it's even open to discussion.

 

That alone would make him a better OF, even setting aside the more risks issue. That one could go either way.

[CubColtPacer]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why do you think a non-OF with limited OF defensive ability would be automatically better if he's hauling ass? Catching balls on the fly isn't easy, so why you assume he'd be better if he's stepping up the speed (which just makes it harder coupled with his wariness of getting injured again) doesn't make much sense to me.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

 

Like I said, I have no idea if I'm right, but it wouldn't surprise me if I was. It's a [expletive] hard thing to do, and it's typically done out of desperation.

[davearm2]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

And of the other 65%, how often does the runner gain an extra base due to the missed dive/leap? Certainly not all the time, with the adjacent outfielder backing up the play.

 

If just for sake of round numbers, we assumed that 33% of the attempts result in a catch for an out, 33% result in the batter getting an extra base, and the last 33% yield the same result as if the fielder did not attempt the leap/dive, would you not like those odds enough to make the leap/dive? The good and the bad have equal odds. The good (an out) is usually more valuable than the bad (the extra base).

[davearm2]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

[davearm2]

Why do you think a non-OF with limited OF defensive ability would be automatically better if he's hauling ass? Catching balls on the fly isn't easy, so why you assume he'd be better if he's stepping up the speed (which just makes it harder coupled with his wariness of getting injured again) doesn't make much sense to me.

So Soriano is somehow more effective by loafing after the ball than sprinting for it?

 

And folks think I'm nuts.

[davearm2]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

 

Like I said, I have no idea if I'm right, but it wouldn't surprise me if I was. It's a [expletive] hard thing to do, and it's typically done out of desperation.

It's not typically done out of desperation. It's typically done when the fielder perceives the risk to be worthwhile (i.e., when the success rate is reasonably good).

[treebird]

i am shocked to learn that the dumbass numbers you made up support the conclusion you came to before this argument started

[Sammy Sofa]

Why do you think a non-OF with limited OF defensive ability would be automatically better if he's hauling ass? Catching balls on the fly isn't easy, so why you assume he'd be better if he's stepping up the speed (which just makes it harder coupled with his wariness of getting injured again) doesn't make much sense to me.

So Soriano is somehow more effective by loafing after the ball than sprinting for it?

 

And folks think I'm nuts.

 

I think the difference between his "loafing" and "sprinting" and the bases given up because of it is negligible. He could be faster, but he's not nearly as slow as people like you think he is. Given that his injuries are leg-based I understand why he's slower and don't want him aggravating things since, again, I don't think he's giving up singles into doubles and doubles into triples at a pace anywhere even close to worrying.

[dew1679666265]

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

 

So you think Soriano makes the mental calculations, decides he can make the play and, on a regular basis, chooses not to make the play?

 

And on CCP's point, if Soriano does have worse instincts than most other OFs, then wouldn't that make his calculations wrong more often than most - and thus meaning he'd dive more often when he shouldn't and let the ball dribble back to the wall (or to the backing up defender)? Or, perhaps, that due to his poor instincts that he passes up diving for some balls he could get not due to laziness, but instead because he legitimately doesn't think he can get it?

[Sammy Sofa]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

 

I'm including when guys try to catch a ball leaping against the wall/fence and not just diving, so we're likely coming at this differently.

 

We're also not that far apart. If there are two dozen attempts made at these types of plays in a week I'm saying they succeed 8-10 times and you're saying, what, 12-15 times?

[davearm2]

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

 

So you think Soriano makes the mental calculations, decides he can make the play and, on a regular basis, chooses not to make the play?

I think he gives up on balls way too easily.

 

Look some guys go out there with the attitude that you darn well better not hit it my way, because if you do I'm gonna run it down. Soriano is like whatever the opposite of that is. He makes it seem like a nuisance when he has to run after a ball.

[Sammy Sofa]

If that were reality you WOULD have guys taking extra bases on him left and right.

[davearm2]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

 

I'm including when guys try to catch a ball leaping against the wall/fence and not just diving, so we're likely coming at this differently.

 

We're also not that far apart. If there are two dozen attempts made at these types of plays in a week I'm saying they succeed 8-10 times and you're saying, what, 12-15 times?

Two dozen attempts across MLB you mean? That seems low. But the rest, sure.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have absolutely no idea if this is right, but I'd bet that leaping/diving for a catch only succeeds around 35% of the time. I think you're focusing on Web Gems.

 

I'd be shocked if that was the case. Players are pretty smart about choosing when they dive now which makes the percentage a lot higher. Of course, that's part of the reason I don't want Soriano diving. He doesn't have the instincts out there and probably would make some dives that would make it a very poor percentage play.

This is my thinking as well. As has been alluded to previously, players make these calculations on the fly. If they think they have a reasonable chance of catching the ball, they go for it. If not, *and* they don't have a teammate backing them up, they usually don't. All of which leads to a success rate greater than 35% for sure.

 

I'm including when guys try to catch a ball leaping against the wall/fence and not just diving, so we're likely coming at this differently.

 

We're also not that far apart. If there are two dozen attempts made at these types of plays in a week I'm saying they succeed 8-10 times and you're saying, what, 12-15 times?

Two dozen attempts across MLB you mean? That seems low. But the rest, sure.

 

I was just spitballing for the sake of a point. I have absolutely no clue how many times in a week MLB players are typically leaping/diving for catches in the MLB.

[davearm2]

If that were reality you WOULD have guys taking extra bases on him left and right.

He does take pride in gunning down runners with his arm. I'll definitely give him credit for that. I just wish he showed the same eagerness to rise to the challenge when the ball is in the air. Instead it's like you suggest -- he looks like he's playing not to get hurt, and if he can catch it on a jog, great, if not oh well.

[Sammy Sofa]

And I'd rather he not get hurt. He's going to have a better idea as to his physical limitations/vulnerabilities than us. There's a big difference between being lazy and not wanting to end up on the DL.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I cant help but notice that guys like Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, A Rod, and Miguel Cabrera dont go crashing into walls on a regular basis. There must be a reason. Oh yeah, they dont have to to to prove their worth.

[Sammy Sofa]

And they all player corner IF positions.