Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-11-11

[Little Slide Rooter]

In additon to Vitters and Sczuzerezr, good games from Bour (2-4, HR), Ha(3-4 2B, BB) Crawford (2-4, BB) and Cerda (2-4, 2B, BB). Logan Warkins even hit his first HR of the season. Juan Serrano got the win, and hes now 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA. How legit of a prospect is he?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

 

Simpson and Golden arent exactly putting up much of a fight in that contest. Who was our 3rd rounder again?

 

Back to Candelerio, was he a guy people were watching before or has he just emerged as a BB machine? Could he be the next big thing? Where did he come from anyway? was he a draftee? Hes in the DSL, but his profile says he was born in New York City.

Edited June 12, 2011 by Little Slide Rooter

[Guest]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

 

Simpson and Golden arent exactly putting up much of a fight in that contest. Who was our 3rd rounder again?

 

Micah Gibbs.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

 

Simpson and Golden arent exactly putting up much of a fight in that contest. Who was our 3rd rounder again?

 

Micah Gibbs.

 

He seems pretty decent, but doesnt look like hes going to give Szczur a run for his money.

[Guest]

And I agree that BA will be all over Szczur. I suspect he'll end up their Cubs #1 prospect.

[Little Slide Rooter]

And I agree that BA will be all over Szczur. I suspect he'll end up their Cubs #1 prospect.

 

If he can keep up the power, he may well make the top 100 next year. As I recall, due to some loophole in his contract, we need to put him on the 40 man next year or risk losing him to Rule 5. If he keeps hitting like he has been, I could see some team plucking him. Its not like you have anything to lose by selecting a Rule 5.

[Guest]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

 

Simpson and Golden arent exactly putting up much of a fight in that contest. Who was our 3rd rounder again?

 

Back to Candelerio, was he a guy people were watching before or has he just emerged as a BB machine? Could he be the next big thing? Where did he come from anyway? was he a draftee? Hes in the DSL, but his profile says he was born in New York City.

 

Candelario was signed out of the Dominican Republic last summer for a $500,000 bonus. Born in NYC but his family moved back to the Dominican.

 

The $500,000 ties him for the biggest bonus given to an amateur out of Latin America by the Cubs last year.

[Guest]

And I agree that BA will be all over Szczur. I suspect he'll end up their Cubs #1 prospect.

 

If he can keep up the power, he may well make the top 100 next year. As I recall, due to some loophole in his contract, we need to put him on the 40 man next year or risk losing him to Rule 5. If he keeps hitting like he has been, I could see some team plucking him. Its not like you have anything to lose by selecting a Rule 5.

 

You're right, Szczur will need to be placed on the 40-man this offseason and I'd be stunned if he doesn't make BA's top 100 at this rate. There's no doubt about it, the Cubs will put him on the 40-man. I suspect they would have even if he didn't have a good season.

[davell]

My honest guess is since the Cubs gave him 1.5 mill, he was getting put on the 40 man, no matter what. Couldn't take the chance of losing him, even if he didn't show much in 2011. Just not good business to throw 1.5 mill down the drain, because all it would take is one team to see ANYTHING in him. Instead, with what he's doing, it's a non-issue as far as putting him on goes.

[Scotti]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

And his 4th HR of the season will only help that. 2/3 with a HR and 2 RBI. Now batting .341.

 

I'm not sure I buy into "plus-plus" speed (Na is faster) but I do think that he'll have at least MLB average power.

 

Szczur was one of the fastest players coming into the NFL draft, as memory serves. Now, whether or not he can use that speed as a weapon on the basepaths and also to help his range in the OF is another matter altogether.

 

His stock as a WR would have been much higher if he had legitimate 4.3-4.4 speed. Szczur claimed a hand-timed 4.4-ish speed coming out of h.s. but it was never verified. His college coach said he was faster than Westbrook, whom he also coached, but Westbrook was not fast--his 40 was 4.57. My guess would be that Szczur is about a 4.50. Not bad. Not plus-plus.

 

His plus-plus tool, however, is the most important tool there is (hitting for average). And if he can get great jumps on the bases and in the outfield his good speed can play great. I expect, given his size, strength and bat control, that he will have average to plus power. The guy didn't have a cannon in college but his arm is at least mlb average. He should wind up with five tools and hit for high average. He just isn't in the Na, Hak-Ju Lee, Corey Patterson level of speed.

[Scotti]

I just consider Szczur the best guy from that draft.

And his 4th HR of the season will only help that. 2/3 with a HR and 2 RBI. Now batting .341.

 

I'm not sure I buy into "plus-plus" speed (Na is faster) but I do think that he'll have at least MLB average power.

 

Szczur was one of the fastest players coming into the NFL draft, as memory serves. Now, whether or not he can use that speed as a weapon on the basepaths and also to help his range in the OF is another matter altogether.

Well, he's got 14 stolen bases in 42 games against just 4 caught stealing. That's a pretty good ratio. And some scouting reports say that he is good to great defensively in center.

 

Using SB as an indicator of speed (especially in the low minors) isn't a good idea. Numerous fast guys sucked at stealing in the low minors and numerous so-so speed guys had very good SB numbers down there. Szczur is an illustration here... In 100+ PA he had only 2 SB last year.

 

Regardless, I didn't make the statement to disparage his play. He may legitimately be the Cubs best prospect. But plus-plus speed has been attributed to him and I have not seen it in any video that I've watched. Not in the minor league video and not in the college football video (where he was caught from behind numerous times by DIV II players pre-ankle injury). He's fast. Plus speed. He just isn't an eleven.

[jb10194]

I was at the Peoria game today. Simpson didn't look good at all. The radar had him between 83-85, although I think it was a bit off. Just about every ball they hit against him was hit pretty hard, even the outs. Szczur, on the other hand, looked good. He beat out a chopper for an infield single early on and then hit a line drive homer into left field later. He looked pretty good in the outfield too.

[Guest]

They might be better of sending Simpson down to Mesa at this point. Maybe he should have started out at extended spring training.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His stock as a WR would have been much higher if he had legitimate 4.3-4.4 speed. Szczur claimed a hand-timed 4.4-ish speed coming out of h.s. but it was never verified. His college coach said he was faster than Westbrook, whom he also coached, but Westbrook was not fast--his 40 was 4.57. My guess would be that Szczur is about a 4.50. Not bad. Not plus-plus.

 

He claimed a hand-timed 4.35. Those are always garbage.

[Scotti]

I have a feeling that we're all on the ground floor of the prospect love that Szczur's going to be getting. It took BA close to the end of the season before they really started up with the Castro hype and I could easily see this type of assent for Szczur as well, if he gets moved up and does anything close to what he's doing currently.

 

BA had Szczur listed high last year as well. I expect either Szczur or Baez to be the BA number one. Szczur if he continues to hit like he has (at Peoria without moving up) and Baez if Szczur stumbles (BA LOVES hyping top picks--it sells subscriptions).

[Scotti]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

 

 

Daaaaang.

[imb]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

 

 

Daaaaang.

 

 

Hahahaha

[Scotti]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

 

 

Daaaaang.

 

In football, just like in baseball, there are smaller guys who are signed for their speed. In both baseball and football guys need to do something with that speed or they don't make the team--otherwise Willie Gault and his 4.2 wouldn't be the rare track crossover. In football those guys need to catch the ball and in baseball they need to hit the ball. And, just like football (where Devin Hester isn't the fastest Bear and Jerry Rice ran a 4.7), in baseball how a guys speed plays matters more than what his 40 or 60 time is.

[Scotti]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

 

 

Daaaaang.

 

 

Hahahaha

 

Indeed.

[Outshined_One]

The football scouting sites seem to think he runs a legit 4.45ish 40. If we have anyone in the system faster than that, then daaaang.

 

We have numerous guys faster than that.

 

It also depends on how you'd qualify "faster". Szczur may have 4.45 speed in the 40, but he may be one of those players who is faster once he gets under way. Perhaps he could beat out most (if not all) of the players in the Cubs system from home to third, but it would not be surprising if there were guys in the system who had a better home to first or first to second time than Szczur.

 

I'm not sure how we could quantify that given our limited information on NSBB, though.

[craig]

..

I'm not sure I buy into "plus-plus" speed (Na is faster) but I do think that he'll have at least MLB average power.

 

That's interesting, if true. Although I'm not sure it's true if/when Szczur is at full health. Since speed has been the one top tool that every scouting report I've ever read on Szczur has mentioned. I think speed has been the first virtue in 100% of the reports. I wonder where info like this comes from.

 

When he started out 12-0 in SB, and stole half of those in a week, I was starting to hope that he had both the speed and instincts to be a premium base stealer, with the thinking that he didn't steal much at first because of injuries. But now that he's gotten thrown out on 4 of his last 5 or 6 tries, my enthusiasm in his base-stealing future has dimmed a bit.

[RammyFanny]

FWIW, a poster on the scout.com Cubs site watched Peoria live a week or two and had this to say:

 

Hitting was pretty bleak tonight, but Matt Szczur is unbelievably fast. Watching him run is pretty amazing.

 

I'll have more from tomorrow and sunday.

Matt Szczur is the ideal leadoff man IMO. He hit two HR's this weekend. He's starting to develop some power, as expected. Was really impressed with his defense in CF, between him and Jackson we could have a great defensive outfield.

[toonsterwu]

Really a total side note, but Szczur, on football related testing, was expected by scouts to destroy the 3-cone drill. NFL folks never viewed him as having elite speed - talk I heard was that the testing from the previous year had a wide range, with some folks having him as high as the 4.5's on the 40, which for a NFL WR is fairly average (that said, 40 testing is one of the more pointless testing events out there at times, only moderately useful for WR's, and pointless for many other positions). He was projected less as a vertical threat and more as a slot receiver to take advantage of his quickness.

 

I suspect that his quickness, plus baserunning instincts, makes him a superior baseball speed guy than guys with faster straight line speed.