Lineup

[Sammy Sofa]

So you see him projecting to be a 6-7 hitter for his career?

 

I have no idea. It's certainly possible he stays in that range.

 

So why not let him bat 2nd so that he gets more PA instead of being banished to the doldrums of the lineup? Why would you WANT him batting 6-7 in the lineup? For a player that doesn't fit into the Cubs' long term plans to hit #2 instead? If you've got a player who is this important and is, hopefully, as skilled as he seems then I'd rather see what he can do in more important roles sooner rather than later.

[CubColtPacer]

Why would you want him getting fewer PA?

 

I could be wrong, but I'm not expecting him to be one of the better hitters in the lineup. He stands a pretty decent chance of being our 6th or 7th best hitter.

 

Seriously??

 

I can see that. Ramirez, Pena, Soto, Byrd, Fukudome, and Soriano could all have better OPS's then Castro at the end of the season. Everybody on that list besides Ramirez and Pena was better last year.

 

However, I know that managers like certain types of players in the 2 spot. Castro is one of those types of players who is actually pretty good. So keeping him locked at 2 keeps worse players of that type (DeWitt, Baker, Barney, Johnson) from getting many at-bats there. Plus while Castro could be worse than most of the lineup he probably won't be that much worse.

[bukie]

Why does everyone love Castro batting second so much?

He's young, really the only speed the Cubs have, and projected to be outpaced in OBP by only Fukudome, Soto and possibly Pena. Since Soto and Pena (and Ramirez) are projected to hit for more power, I'd prefer players on base in front of them. If Castro hits the occasional HR anyway, so be it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Why would you want him getting fewer PA?

 

I could be wrong, but I'm not expecting him to be one of the better hitters in the lineup. He stands a pretty decent chance of being our 6th or 7th best hitter.

 

Seriously??

 

Last year, he was definitely worse than Soto, Fukudome and Soriano. He was pretty much even with Byrd. Throw in bounceback years from Pena and Ramirez, and he'd be the 7th best hitter in the lineup.

 

Obviously there can be a lot of variance in the upcoming year, but I don't think that's unreasonable to guess.

 

You're looking at him like he's 25-year-old Blake DeWitt instead of 20-year-old Starlin Castro. The only benefit to batting someone else there this year is in the short term. We should want and expect the Cubs right now to be looking at the long term future of the team.

Edited March 30, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So you see him projecting to be a 6-7 hitter for his career?

 

I have no idea. It's certainly possible he stays in that range.

 

So why not let him bat 2nd so that he gets more PA instead of being banished to the doldrums of the lineup? Why would you WANT him batting 6-7 in the lineup? For a player that doesn't fit into the Cubs' long term plans to hit #2 instead? If you've got a player who is this important and is, hopefully, as skilled as he seems then I'd rather see what he can do in more important roles sooner rather than later.

 

I'm not really worried about his "role" in the lineup. Hitting is hitting. The number of at-bats he gets this year out of a lower spot, with regular playing time, should be plenty for his development. I think the Cubs are close enough to contention that they shouldn't be throwing away runs unnecessarily playing suboptimal lineups.

 

But I guess I have my answer. Why? Because he's developing for the future.

[JeffH]

Don't want Marlon Byrd hitting third?

 

Assemble a roster that doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

[Sammy Sofa]

Don't want Marlon Byrd hitting third?

 

Assemble a roster that doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

 

This roster doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you see him projecting to be a 6-7 hitter for his career?

 

I have no idea. It's certainly possible he stays in that range.

 

So why not let him bat 2nd so that he gets more PA instead of being banished to the doldrums of the lineup? Why would you WANT him batting 6-7 in the lineup? For a player that doesn't fit into the Cubs' long term plans to hit #2 instead? If you've got a player who is this important and is, hopefully, as skilled as he seems then I'd rather see what he can do in more important roles sooner rather than later.

 

I'm not really worried about his "role" in the lineup. Hitting is hitting. The number of at-bats he gets this year out of a lower spot, with regular playing time, should be plenty for his development. I think the Cubs are close enough to contention that they shouldn't be throwing away runs unnecessarily playing suboptimal lineups.

 

But I guess I have my answer. Why? Because he's developing for the future.

 

Hitting isn't just hitting regardless of where you are in the lineup. Dismiss it if you will, but I'd rather he get as many PA as possible hitting 2nd instead of 7th. Plus pitchers are going to approach him differently if he's batting in front of the heart of the lineup as opposed to the mess at 2B and then the pitcher.

[Northside Blues]

Why would you want him getting fewer PA?

 

I could be wrong, but I'm not expecting him to be one of the better hitters in the lineup. He stands a pretty decent chance of being our 6th or 7th best hitter.

 

Seriously??

 

He was our 6th best hitter last year....and that was ahead of Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee (Pena now) who he's not better than. He had a lower OPS+ than Soto, Fukudome, Soriano, Colvin and Byrd. He also had a lower one than Carlos Pena, though he was not a Cub. He'll probably have a lower one than Ramirez, as Castro's OPS+ last year was beat by Ramirez every year from 2003-09.

[questionmarkgrace]

Why would you want him getting fewer PA?

 

I could be wrong, but I'm not expecting him to be one of the better hitters in the lineup. He stands a pretty decent chance of being our 6th or 7th best hitter.

 

Seriously??

 

He's a very young, relatively inexperienced player entering his second season. There's a very good chance that he has a shaky year.

 

That said, I see him ideally projecting to be a #2-ish hitter latter on, and I'd rather the Cubs take advantage of having an "in between" team to let him get more PA by batting near the top of the order instead of burying him.

 

agreed he is raw but he profiles as an ideal #2 hitter, there is no question about that. I actually think that he will really surprise us this year offensively.

[Vinestal]

Don't want Marlon Byrd hitting third?

 

Assemble a roster that doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

 

This roster doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

 

 

true, there's really nothing stunning about it. it's essintialy the same lineup we ran out there last year + Pena - Lee. The lacking part is a matter of perspective or who you compare them to. I don't see a great deal of offensive talent either. Where did the offense rank last year among NL teams? I'm willing to bet it was somewhere near the bottom. Aramis will be better but how much is certainly unknown, Soriano could easily be worse. There are a lot of question marks in this lineup offensively. So lacking is certainly a valid description.

[CubColtPacer]

Don't want Marlon Byrd hitting third?

 

Assemble a roster that doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

 

This roster doesn't have a stunning lack of talent.

 

 

true, there's really nothing stunning about it. it's essintialy the same lineup we ran out there last year + Pena - Lee. The lacking part is a matter of perspective or who you compare them to. I don't see a great deal of offensive talent either. Where did the offense rank last year among NL teams? I'm willing to bet it was somewhere near the bottom. Aramis will be better but how much is certainly unknown, Soriano could easily be worse. There are a lot of question marks in this lineup offensively. So lacking is certainly a valid description.

 

The offense was ranked 10th in runs scored out of 16 NL teams. They were 11th in OBP, 9th in SLG, and 10th in OPS. So a little below average.

[SouthSideRyan]

Offensively, 1B, C, and 3B are almost certain to be upgrades. There is no position that is certain to be a downgrade.

 

I'm fairly optimistic SS and 2B will be upgrades as well. I'd be surprised if we're worse than a middle of the pack offense.

[Vinestal]

Offensively, 1B, C, and 3B are almost certain to be upgrades. There is no position that is certain to be a downgrade.

 

I'm fairly optimistic SS and 2B will be upgrades as well. I'd be surprised if we're worse than a middle of the pack offense.

 

 

I disagree. Pena could be a complete bust. why is Soto going to be better? Aramis could just be on the decline and your putting your faith in Dewitt and Barney to be an offensive upgrade? I also think Soriano will continue to worsen with the bat. I'll be surprised if this offense is better than last year. I think your setting yourself up for disappointment but I tend to be a glass half empty type of guy.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'll be surprised if this offense is better than last year.

 

Hey, at least surprises are fun!

[Vinestal]

I'll be surprised if this offense is better than last year.

 

Hey, at least surprises are fun!

 

true, thus the glass half empty perspective.

[Old Style]

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup

 

Fukudome RF

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Ramirez 3B

Pena 1B

Soto C

Soriano LF

Barney 2B

Dempster P

Edited March 31, 2011 by Old Style

[CubColtPacer]

Offensively, 1B, C, and 3B are almost certain to be upgrades. There is no position that is certain to be a downgrade.

 

I'm fairly optimistic SS and 2B will be upgrades as well. I'd be surprised if we're worse than a middle of the pack offense.

 

 

I disagree. Pena could be a complete bust. why is Soto going to be better? Aramis could just be on the decline and your putting your faith in Dewitt and Barney to be an offensive upgrade? I also think Soriano will continue to worsen with the bat. I'll be surprised if this offense is better than last year. I think your setting yourself up for disappointment but I tend to be a glass half empty type of guy.

 

Pena could be a complete bust but the odds are not in favor of that. And it won't take much to do more than Lee did last year for the Cubs.

 

Soto won't be better..in fact he'll probably be worse. But Soto only got 318 AB's from the catcher position last year and Hill got 212 . So even though Soto had a career year the Cubs still only got a .774 OPS out of the catcher position. If Soto gets more of those at-bats the average will be a lot better. I personally think catcher will be about the same. Soto will not have as good of a year but will get more at-bats and that will even out.

 

Aramis could be on the decline. But jumping from being a .900 guy to a .750 guy is quite a decline for one year. He'll probably do like Soriano did last year and put up a number in between those two..not like his career averages but better than last year.

 

DeWitt and Barney might not be an upgrade but it would be hard for them to be a downgrade to what Theriot did last year with the bat. It was easily Theriot's worst year and DeWitt while he was better than Theriot when he came over didn't light it up either.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's not just Lee, it's 2 months of Nady too. As awful as Pena was last year, he outperformed Cubs 1B.

[Rob]

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup

 

Fukudome RF

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Ramirez 3B

Pena 1B

Soto C

Soriano LF

Barney 2B

Dempster P

 

Castro should be hitting lower in the order, but times like these I'm just happy it's him batting #2 and not a guy like Barney, or Cesar Izturis, or Neifi Perez, or all the other guys we put there to "handle the bat a bit." blech.

[Sammy Sofa]

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup

 

Fukudome RF

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Ramirez 3B

Pena 1B

Soto C

Soriano LF

Barney 2B

Dempster P

 

Castro should be hitting lower in the order

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

[Rob]

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup

 

Fukudome RF

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Ramirez 3B

Pena 1B

Soto C

Soriano LF

Barney 2B

Dempster P

 

Castro should be hitting lower in the order

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

 

He should. Sorry.

 

Best hitters 1, 2, 4. Lean more towards OBP than SLG from front to back. Then next best at 3 and 5. Then 6 & 7, pitcher 8, worst 9.

[Sammy Sofa]

I say again, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

 

Basically you'd "have" to relegate him to 7th by that thinking. Like I said before, I'd rather Castro sees the type of pitches that a #2 hitter is going to see as opposed to a #7 hitter hitting in front of the monstrosity at 2B and then the pitcher. The Cubs are a team in transition (though yes, it's a shitty division, but let's think big picture) and I'd rather that someone ideally as important to the Cubs' future as Castro go through his growing pains in the hitting spot that ideally he will be in for a long, long time (and where he'll get more PA) than facing the garbage that can be thrown at the #7 hitter in this lineup.

 

Hell, I think he'd actually see better pitches as the #8 hitter in front of the pitcher than #7.

 

And I'm assuming you'd want Soto at #2 instead of Castro, right? Who else on the team (discounting Fukudome assuming he's going to be leading off consistently) is going to so significantly outperform Castro in regards to OBP? There's Aramis, but I'm guessing you want him sticking at #4.

Edited March 31, 2011 by Sammy Sofa

[bukie]

Tomorrow's Opening Day lineup

 

Fukudome RF

Castro SS

Byrd CF

Ramirez 3B

Pena 1B

Soto C

Soriano LF

Barney 2B

Dempster P

 

Castro should be hitting lower in the order

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

 

He should. Sorry.

 

Best hitters 1, 2, 4. Lean more towards OBP than SLG from front to back. Then next best at 3 and 5. Then 6 & 7, pitcher 8, worst 9.

 

Cubs' lineup, projected OBP (ZiPS):

Fukudome .356

Castro .340

Byrd .336

Ramirez .339

Pena .363 (have I mentioned ZiPS loves Pena?)

Soto .357

Soriano .314

Barney .309

 

I mean, sure, get Soto and Pena higher in the lineup, but I have no problem with Castro being where he is.

[Rob]

I say again, NOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

 

Basically you'd "have" to relegate him to 7th by that thinking. Like I said before, I'd rather Castro sees the type of pitches that a #2 hitter is going to see as opposed to a #7 hitter hitting in front of the monstrosity at 2B and then the pitcher. The Cubs are a team in transition (though yes, it's a [expletive] division, but let's think big picture) and I'd rather that someone ideally as important to the Cubs' future as Castro go through his growing pains in the hitting spot that ideally he will be in for a long, long time (and where he'll get more PA) than facing the garbage that can be thrown at the #7 hitter in this lineup.

 

Hell, I think he'd actually see better pitches as the #8 hitter in front of the pitcher than #7.

 

And I'm assuming you'd want Soto at #2 instead of Castro, right? Who else on the team (discounting Fukudome assuming he's going to be leading off consistently) is going to so significantly outperform Castro in regards to OBP? There's Aramis, but I'm guessing you want him sticking at #4.

 

You're speaking from the perspective of a typical lineup. I'm talking purely about lineup optimization. If you want to make arguments about player development being more important than scoring more runs in the short term, have at it. I'm not barking up that tree.

 

At a glance, I'd guess the optimized lineup looks something like this...

 

Fukudome

Soto

Aramis

Pena

Soriano

Castro

Byrd

Pitcher

Barney

 

If the org is too scared to use an optimized lineup and has to go with a typical one as not to confuse the fans, I don't care if Castro bats #2. He's better than the other crap we'd toss in that spot normally.