Cliff Lee signs with Phillies

[JeffH]

Will Hendry now try to acquire Joe Blanton from the Phillies?

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Wow. Very sly Philly. I wanted to see him go back to Texas (or bump his head one day and decide to take a one million dollar contract with the Cubs), but I guess this is better than him going to Boston or New York.

[Clem Fandango]

What's wrong with the Howard money?

 

IIRC, he's been trending downward and his skillset compares favorably to a bunch of players who tailed off in their early 30's, which he is about to enter, due to declining skills and physical limitations so there's a chance they could be paying a premium salary for a not-so-premium player in the next couple of years.

[Southpaw191679666239]

Will Hendry now try to acquire Joe Blanton from the Phillies?

 

No, because Amaro is going to make sure of the Boston/Philly WS, by sending Blanton to Boston.

[Outshined_One]

Damn damn damn damn damn.

 

That's just an unfair rotation.

[CubColtPacer]

This deal is contingent about where the Phillies plan to take their payroll. If they're planning on expanding it into the 170-175 million dollar range than this is a fantastic deal. If they're planning on dropping back down to 140-150 after this year and/or the deal is heavily backloaded then it could cause major problems.

 

Their offense was good not great last year although they did score many more runs than their batting line would indicate they should have. They lost Werth who was easily their best hitter last year. They need bounceback years from several players to make up for that (which is possible as many players had their worst year last year).

 

After next year though it gets even tighter for them. They'll have at least 125 million committed even after losing Oswalt, Rollins, Ibanez, and two strong relievers last year (Lidge and Madson). If their payroll is only 145-150 that will be a lot of holes to fill. They're definitely going for the win now strategy as they are going to have to make a lot of tough decisions on aging players.

[Clem Fandango]

What's wrong with the Howard money?

 

Could've sworn I already posted this but now it isn't showing up for me anymore...

 

IIRC he is trending downward and his skillset compares favorably to a bunch of other players who tend to fall off the cliff in their early 30's due to a diminishing skillset and physical limitations because of their size, and he turns 31 next season. For the production he provides now, his contract is somewhat justifiable (if not a little over the top) but by the end of the contract they could be paying a premium price for a not-so-premium player

[SouthSideRyan]

What's wrong with the Howard money?

 

It's way too much?

[Post Count Padder]

Can't believe this actually happened. The Phillies went from being the "mystery team" to signing Lee in a matter of a couple of hours. I would've liked to see him stay in Texas, but I'm glad he's not in New York.

 

The Phils have one scary rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

This deal is contingent about where the Phillies plan to take their payroll. If they're planning on expanding it into the 170-175 million dollar range than this is a fantastic deal. If they're planning on dropping back down to 140-150 after this year and/or the deal is heavily backloaded then it could cause major problems.

 

Their offense was good not great last year although they did score many more runs than their batting line would indicate they should have. They lost Werth who was easily their best hitter last year. They need bounceback years from several players to make up for that (which is possible as many players had their worst year last year).

 

After next year though it gets even tighter for them. They'll have at least 125 million committed even after losing Oswalt, Rollins, Ibanez, and two strong relievers last year (Lidge and Madson). If their payroll is only 145-150 that will be a lot of holes to fill. They're definitely going for the win now strategy as they are going to have to make a lot of tough decisions on aging players.

 

They have outstanding pitching and at worst, good hitting. They scored the second most runs in the NL last year. What the hell are you talking about? It doesn't take much to plub holes when all you need to do is plug holes. They have the production and stars taking care of. Teams like the Cubs struggle to plug holes because they still have to go out and find the production in the first place.

[Elrhino]

i wonder what were the huge factors. a return to the nl? easiest path to playoffs (though rangers and yankees were pretty good bets)?

 

I don't think he wanted to be "the man" in Texas. I don't think he was ever comfortable with all the hero worship they placed on him.

[SouthSideRyan]

i wonder what were the huge factors. a return to the nl? easiest path to playoffs (though rangers and yankees were pretty good bets)?

 

I don't think he wanted to be "the man" in Texas. I don't think he was ever comfortable with all the hero worship they placed on him.

 

What are you basing this on?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What's wrong with the Howard money?

Seriously?

[CubColtPacer]

This deal is contingent about where the Phillies plan to take their payroll. If they're planning on expanding it into the 170-175 million dollar range than this is a fantastic deal. If they're planning on dropping back down to 140-150 after this year and/or the deal is heavily backloaded then it could cause major problems.

 

Their offense was good not great last year although they did score many more runs than their batting line would indicate they should have. They lost Werth who was easily their best hitter last year. They need bounceback years from several players to make up for that (which is possible as many players had their worst year last year).

 

After next year though it gets even tighter for them. They'll have at least 125 million committed even after losing Oswalt, Rollins, Ibanez, and two strong relievers last year (Lidge and Madson). If their payroll is only 145-150 that will be a lot of holes to fill. They're definitely going for the win now strategy as they are going to have to make a lot of tough decisions on aging players.

 

They have outstanding pitching and at worst, good hitting. They scored the second most runs in the NL last year. What the hell are you talking about? It doesn't take much to plub holes when all you need to do is plug holes. They have the production and stars taking care of. Teams like the Cubs struggle to plug holes because they still have to go out and find the production in the first place.

 

They were second in runs scored but they were only 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. If they put up that same batting line next year they should not expect to be 2nd in scoring again. Werth was the only player better than an .860 OPS last year and he's not there anymore. Every single player in their lineup last year is 30 or older now (Ben Francisco is the youngest at 29 and he had less than 200 AB's). Their offense could fall off the precipice very, very quickly. And they won't have the money to fix it.

 

Philadelphia will likely be an amazing team next year. But without a commitment to that huge payroll or hitting on multiple stud prospects in the couple years after that they're going to have to do more than plug holes. That team is going to start falling apart. Their great pitching will keep them in it but will also lose a big piece when Oswalt leaves next year and will have to completely rebuild that bullpen. If they keep the 170 million payroll, they'll probably be able to buy new players. If they drop back down, they're going to be in trouble within 2-3 years.

[NCCubFan]

Luckily the Cubs won't make it to the playoffs this year.

Easy to say considering that this year is completed. It's premature to say that they won't make it NEXT year (2011), though. Too many people on this board say that the Cubs can't make the playoffs next year as if it's already a fact (it isn't).

 

Well, when I said next this year I was more referring to 2011. I should have been more clear. However, I think the odds of us making it are very small. I'll still cheer for the team and hope they do make it, but it's best to be realistic and look towards the future.

I knew you meant 2011; I was being facetious with that comment (I meant to make that clear with a smiley). My main point was meant to be that people are being too quick to write off the Cubs' playoff chances considering what division they're in. If they were in either the NL East or AL East I'd say their chances would be less than zero, but not in the NL Central.

[jersey cubs fan]

They were second in runs scored but they were only 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. If they put up that same batting line next year they should not expect to be 2nd in scoring again.

 

Seriously? You are nit-picking that maybe they should have only scored the 4th most runs in the NL last year? This is a ridiculous line of reasoning you are attempting to use.

 

The Phillies are a fantastic team and organization that has been winning for years. They have blown away the Hendry era Cubs with a lesser payroll, have demonstrated a commitment to spending what is necessary to win, and acquire who is necessary to help them win. They have the stars in place, they have the stable successful franchise model in place and any hole plugging they will need going forward is going to be replacement level players that are easy and affordable to find.

 

It is by far the better situation than the Cubs who have to actually go out and acquire stars to get better.

[Sammy Sofa]

I can't believe we have someone here asking what's wrong with Howard's contract.

[rocket]

I can't believe we have someone here asking what's wrong with Howard's contract.

 

maybe the person was ryan howard

[Guest]

They were second in runs scored but they were only 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. If they put up that same batting line next year they should not expect to be 2nd in scoring again.

 

Seriously? You are nit-picking that maybe they should have only scored the 4th most runs in the NL last year? This is a ridiculous line of reasoning you are attempting to use.

 

The Phillies are a fantastic team and organization that has been winning for years. They have blown away the Hendry era Cubs with a lesser payroll, have demonstrated a commitment to spending what is necessary to win, and acquire who is necessary to help them win. They have the stars in place, they have the stable successful franchise model in place and any hole plugging they will need going forward is going to be replacement level players that are easy and affordable to find.

 

It is by far the better situation than the Cubs who have to actually go out and acquire stars to get better.

 

Yeah. I'd way rather have Philadelphia's current "dilemma/plight" than the Cubs. And it isn't really even close.

[CubColtPacer]

They were second in runs scored but they were only 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. If they put up that same batting line next year they should not expect to be 2nd in scoring again.

 

Seriously? You are nit-picking that maybe they should have only scored the 4th most runs in the NL last year? This is a ridiculous line of reasoning you are attempting to use.

 

The Phillies are a fantastic team and organization that has been winning for years. They have blown away the Hendry era Cubs with a lesser payroll, have demonstrated a commitment to spending what is necessary to win, and acquire who is necessary to help them win. They have the stars in place, they have the stable successful franchise model in place and any hole plugging they will need going forward is going to be replacement level players that are easy and affordable to find.

 

It is by far the better situation than the Cubs who have to actually go out and acquire stars to get better.

 

Yes, that is significant. When the team is 60-70 runs above average and they scored 25-30 more than they should have, that's a significant chunk. And they need a lot to go right just to do that well next year and not slip even further.

 

The Phillies had a successful franchise model for both present and future. They don't anymore. They have a bunch of stars in their 30's. Some of them are still at their peak and some of them are declining. That's great for now but they have nothing coming up to replace them. So they'll ride out the rest of the glory years and then they'll be stuck.

 

Can you name a single offensive player of theirs that when he comes up for free agency that you would resign? They're all starting to decline and they all will be overpaid in their next deal. So the Phillies in the next 3 years will have to replace their entire offensive team besides Howard and he'll be way, way overpaid by that point.

 

They've traded away a large part of their minor league talent. They haven't brought any young player into their team in years (they might try for the first time this year with Brown who's the only player on the horizon). They keep signing large contracts to old players. They better win the World Series this year because it's obvious that's their entire focus. A Yankees style budget is the only thing that will save them long-term.

[CubColtPacer]

They were second in runs scored but they were only 5th in OBP, 5th in SLG, and 4th in OPS. If they put up that same batting line next year they should not expect to be 2nd in scoring again.

 

Seriously? You are nit-picking that maybe they should have only scored the 4th most runs in the NL last year? This is a ridiculous line of reasoning you are attempting to use.

 

The Phillies are a fantastic team and organization that has been winning for years. They have blown away the Hendry era Cubs with a lesser payroll, have demonstrated a commitment to spending what is necessary to win, and acquire who is necessary to help them win. They have the stars in place, they have the stable successful franchise model in place and any hole plugging they will need going forward is going to be replacement level players that are easy and affordable to find.

 

It is by far the better situation than the Cubs who have to actually go out and acquire stars to get better.

 

Yeah. I'd way rather have Philadelphia's current "dilemma/plight" than the Cubs. And it isn't really even close.

 

So would I. The Cubs are past the glory years with lesser players than the Phillies have and a lesser payroll. If I had to build a team for 2013 and beyond though I'd much rather take the Cubs than the Phillies (assuming the Cubs can spend only 20-30 million less than the Phillies and not 50 million less).

[shnsajax]

i wonder what were the huge factors. a return to the nl? easiest path to playoffs (though rangers and yankees were pretty good bets)?

 

I don't think he wanted to be "the man" in Texas. I don't think he was ever comfortable with all the hero worship they placed on him.

 

What are you basing this on?

 

Thats been all of the talk here in Dallas this morning, but I think its mostly an excuse. They are also saying now they were not comfortable giving him all of that money too. He seemed to enjoy being the spotlight on the mound during the playoffs.

[AI]

Very disappointing from the Rangers fan perspective. I think Texas needed him, but there was definitely some discomfort, particularly on Ryan's part, to commit that much money to a 32 year old pitcher. I think this paves the way for Feliz to go into the rotation.

[champaignchris]

Just speculation on my part, but I figure the prospect of joining a 5th different team in three years simply wasn't something Lee wanted to do. When talking about the amount of money being thrown around here, what's the loss of a few million in exchange for being someplace where you know you're comfortable? That Phillies team is by and large the same team he was on two years ago, with the same manager. He just must have enjoyed his time there.

 

This must feel like a real slap in the face to Texas. Lee certainly had a right to sign wherever he wanted and didn't at all engage in any sort of Lebron-esque dickery. Still, Texas has to be wondering, "Why them and not us?"

 

The answer is probably which team has the easiest path back to the W.S. The Phillies were probably the NL favorite before Lee signed with them. Even with Lee, Texas may not have been the favorite to win its division. There was some fluky-ness to the Angels' down year (injury to Pineiro, Kazmir career worst year, etc.) and Texas' great year (Vlad's comeback year, C.J. Wilson suddenly a starter at age 30, etc.).

[jersey cubs fan]

So would I. The Cubs are past the glory years with lesser players than the Phillies have and a lesser payroll. If I had to build a team for 2013 and beyond though I'd much rather take the Cubs than the Phillies (assuming the Cubs can spend only 20-30 million less than the Phillies and not 50 million less).

 

This isn't Kansas City. Big boys don't get to take 2 years off and only build for the distant future.