Marmol extension?

[Post Count Padder]

From MLBTR:

 

# Praver and the Cubs also discussed Carlos Marmol, an offseason extension candidate who may be offered a long-term deal.

[mookie]

I really don't want to see this happen. He isn't Mariano Rivera.

[davell]

I'd be completely fine with a relatively team friendly 4 year extension. If he's going to make between 4-5 mill this year through arb and likely to make 8 mill or so as a final year arb guy, if you could get him to take a 4 year extension in the 4/8/9/11 range, I think we'd have to do it. If he made it to the open market, he'd get alot more than that anyway.

[apete6]

I really don't want to see this happen. He isn't Mariano Rivera.

 

You're right. He's no Rivera. He's better.

[jersey cubs fan]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

[Post Count Padder]

I really don't want to see this happen. He isn't Mariano Rivera.

 

You're right. He's no Rivera. He's better.

In K/9, sure. Other than that, no. He's too wild and has an odd delivery. I'd hate to give him a four-year extension and then see him blow out his arm in two years.

[dew1679666265]

I really don't want to see this happen. He isn't Mariano Rivera.

 

You're right. He's no Rivera. He's better.

In K/9, sure. Other than that, no. He's too wild and has an odd delivery. I'd hate to give him a four-year extension and then see him blow out his arm in two years.

 

That's my biggest concern. As long as he stays healthy, I think Marmol is likely to be very effective and worth a long term deal. I have no clue how long he'll stay healthy for, though.

[Guest]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

 

Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward.

 

I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit.

[apete6]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

 

Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward.

 

I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit.

 

Completely agree. Why go long term on a closer?

 

And I retract my Marmol is better than Rivera statement...for now.The last 4 years, Marmol has a 9.5 WAR and Rivera has a 12.1. Still, Marmol is, what, 15 years younger?

[davell]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

 

Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward.

 

I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit.

 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you just said, but let me ask this: If Marmol stays healthy for the next 2 seasons and continues to basically do what he's done to date, do you re-sign him or let him walk and take the picks? And keep in mind that we may not have a closer in waiting, especially if Cashner winds up starting between now and then. To me, if we can lock down an elite closer now for a slight bargain(especially at the ages of where he'd have him, although I do acknowledge the injury risk), it takes us out of having to overpay for one on the free agent market

[jersey cubs fan]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

 

Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward.

 

I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit.

 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you just said, but let me ask this: If Marmol stays healthy for the next 2 seasons and continues to basically do what he's done to date, do you re-sign him or let him walk and take the picks? And keep in mind that we may not have a closer in waiting, especially if Cashner winds up starting between now and then. To me, if we can lock down an elite closer now for a slight bargain(especially at the ages of where he'd have him, although I do acknowledge the injury risk), it takes us out of having to overpay for one on the free agent market

 

You never have to pay for one. You should save money at closer long before you ever consider going cheap at 1B. There's been 1 consistently elite closer this past decade. Everybody else has come and gone. What happened to Francisco Rodriguez? Eric Gagne, Keith Foulk? It's just not worth it. The Yankees could afford to do it because they can afford anything and everything and they just so happened to have the one guy that was reliable every single year. Closer is not a position. It's just pitchers who pitch at the end of the game. There is no reason to inflate their salary because of the hype.

[Guest]

I would much much much rather go year to year in arbitration with him than sign him to an extension that guarantees him 8 digits 3-4 years out. The guy is a career ending arm injury waiting to happen. You do not hand out longterm contracts to relievers, especially ones without consistent effectiveness.

 

Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward.

 

I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit.

 

 

I don't necessarily disagree with what you just said, but let me ask this: If Marmol stays healthy for the next 2 seasons and continues to basically do what he's done to date, do you re-sign him or let him walk and take the picks? And keep in mind that we may not have a closer in waiting, especially if Cashner winds up starting between now and then. To me, if we can lock down an elite closer now for a slight bargain(especially at the ages of where he'd have him, although I do acknowledge the injury risk), it takes us out of having to overpay for one on the free agent market

 

A lot would depend on the state of the whole team at that point and where they were financially. Given where the team is now though, odds are pretty strong I'd advocate letting him walk. He's not only a reliever, he's a reliever that has success despite insane walk rates and an arm action that gives Kerry Wood Vietnam-style flashbacks.

[Clem Fandango]

How much can we expect Marmol to make in arbitration this year? Would signing him to an extension save us money or would we wind up spending more?

 

Doesn't seem wise to spend what little money you have for new players on players you already have control over

[jersey cubs fan]

How much can we expect Marmol to make in arbitration this year? Would signing him to an extension save us money or would we wind up spending more?

 

Doesn't seem wise to spend what little money you have for new players on players you already have control over

 

Theoretically you would save some in the longterm by signing him to an extension. But then you take on all the risk, and that is not worth the couple million you'd save 3 years from now.

[davell]

While I definitely agree that 1B should be a much higher concern monetarily than closer and I agree that in a perfect world, you shouldn't HAVE to pay for one, I wouldn't be ready to just hand off the job(and I even agree that it probably isn't MUCH different than pitching elsewhere in the game) to an average bullpen arm either. I do think that the whole mindset thing has some credence at least. If not, guys like LaTroy Hawkins wouldn't have struggled so much once put into that situation.

 

All I'm saying here is that I don't think a team can get away with not paying for a closer at all. I agree it's not optimal to pay 10 mill a year for one, but I think I'd rather do that(assuming you're pretty confident in what you've got) rather than paying some cast off a mill or two for a season as a crapshoot you hope goes correctly. This, of course, comes with the caveat that we appear to truly be contenders at that point as well. If we're not, I agree whoeheartedly that paying a closer solid money is a waste. But, I am for Marmol, in this case, because I see us having lots of money coming off the books, some very solid cheap options that we can use for some spots and it would still appear as if we could address an ace, a bigtime slugger at 1B AND be able to keep Marmol as well.

 

 

By the way, Francisco Rodriguez is still a damn good pitcher, he's just a lunatic. His contract may be a tad high, but he's very good. Also, I think Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner did enough over their careers to be considered elite.

[davell]

How much can we expect Marmol to make in arbitration this year? Would signing him to an extension save us money or would we wind up spending more?

 

Doesn't seem wise to spend what little money you have for new players on players you already have control over

 

Conceivably, you'd save a little bit for each of his next 2 seasons. Maybe he only gets 4 and 7.5 on the new deal, while through arb he may have gotten 5 and 8 or something like that. Then, you get him for 2 more years after that, hopefully at or slightly below his market value as a free agent. If he continues at his present rate, I'd guess he'd be a 12 mill a year type guy on the open market. The hope would be to get for around 10 or so. But, the main thing here, would be you'd only have him for 2 years outside of his arb clock. If you wait on him, you may get stuck paying him for 4-5 years outside of arb, instead of just the 2 and maybe not able to get the discount at that point either on money per year either. In the end, it all depends on how much Marmol values security as to whether or not he'd even be willing to lock himself down like this.

[jersey cubs fan]

All I'm saying here is that I don't think a team can get away with not paying for a closer at all.

 

Really? Because that is what the Cubs are doing right now. It is what both World Series participants did this year.

 

 

And no, FRod is not still very good. He was very mediocre in 2009 and was nothing special this year.

[jersey cubs fan]

How much can we expect Marmol to make in arbitration this year? Would signing him to an extension save us money or would we wind up spending more?

 

Doesn't seem wise to spend what little money you have for new players on players you already have control over

 

Conceivably, you'd save a little bit for each of his next 2 seasons. Maybe he only gets 4 and 7.5 on the new deal, while through arb he may have gotten 5 and 8 or something like that. Then, you get him for 2 more years after that, hopefully at or slightly below his market value as a free agent. If he continues at his present rate, I'd guess he'd be a 12 mill a year type guy on the open market. The hope would be to get for around 10 or so. But, the main thing here, would be you'd only have him for 2 years outside of his arb clock. If you wait on him, you may get stuck paying him for 4-5 years outside of arb, instead of just the 2 and maybe not able to get the discount at that point either on money per year either. In the end, it all depends on how much Marmol values security as to whether or not he'd even be willing to lock himself down like this.

 

he would be crazy not to sign the deal and the Cubs would be crazy to offer it.

[davell]

All I'm saying here is that I don't think a team can get away with not paying for a closer at all.

 

Really? Because that is what the Cubs are doing right now. It is what both World Series participants did this year.

 

 

And no, FRod is not still very good. He was very mediocre in 2009 and was nothing special this year.

 

K-Rod doesn't really matter here, but looking at his numbers, I thought he was very solid in 2010.

 

I guess we're disagreeing on what "paying someone" means. Yes, we've had Marmol cheap, but he's getting paid now fairly well. I'm just not seeing a guy in our system right now that looks to be his heir apparent. Cashner, maybe????? But, I'd much rather him be starting for us. Carpenter possibly???? He'll need to at least pitch in the majors first obviously. Aaron Kurcz?????Possibly a choice by the time Marmol's contract is up. But, has a long way to go. Who's your choice to close if we don't have Marmol?

 

I totally understand your point and in a perfect world, we can get away with trading Marmol at the height of his value. All I'm saying is we should have someone capable as a replacement before we'd do something like that and in our exact situation, I'm not confident that we do. Therefore, an extension as I've mentioned(4 years at a discount) didn't seem like a bad idea to me, since we'd still have the money to go get an ace and a bigtime slugger as well with other contracts falling off.

[jersey cubs fan]

We have 3 years to find that replacement. There is no good reason to sign Marmol to a longterm deal this year because you are afraid you won't be able to replace him by then.

[davell]

We have 3 years to find that replacement. There is no good reason to sign Marmol to a longterm deal this year because you are afraid you won't be able to replace him by then.

 

Fair enough. I kind of thought that's where you'd go here. I just think there's as much risk involved in finding another guy from our system than there is in giving him the extension and then him getting hurt. I'll even admit I'm probably in the minority on this one. As bad as his motion appears to be, I think he's just one of those runner arms that defy people. Not something we'll know until(if) he ever really gets hurt. Like I said, my main reasoning here is because of all the money we've got coming off the books. I just figure it'd be better to keep him than it will be to find that money spent on 2 LOOGY's, a backup MI, a SP coming back from injury, and a speedy guy that can give us a spark.

 

If I had confidence in our management, I'm sure I'd feel more like you do on this.(I know you don't have confidence in them either though) As it is, I guess I want someone who's at least a damn good player still here, than to see the savings spent on a bunch of crap as I'd expect it be.

[SouthSideRyan]

What are we going to do with Cashner if we extend Marmol?

[UMFan83]

How far as the Cubs from FA with him?

 

I wouldn't suggest just letting him go at the end of his arb years, nor would I suggest signing him for 8 figures a year. But relievers with his stuff and are relatively consistent from year to year are hard to find. There are significant risks to a long term extension but while I am typically very against paying relievers a lot of money, I am ok with a big market team like the Cubs having one high paid reliever on the team (meaning up to 8 mil a year).

 

Sure you could sign him to a 4 year deal and watch him take a line drive off his elbow tomorrow and his career is over. Or you could sign him and watch Marmol figure out his control issues and become the most dominant reliever in baseball for a good chunk of the deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

How far as the Cubs from FA with him?

 

I wouldn't suggest just letting him go at the end of his arb years, nor would I suggest signing him for 8 figures a year. But relievers with his stuff and are relatively consistent from year to year are hard to find. There are significant risks to a long term extension but while I am typically very against paying relievers a lot of money, I am ok with a big market team like the Cubs having one high paid reliever on the team (meaning up to 8 mil a year).

 

Sure you could sign him to a 4 year deal and watch him take a line drive off his elbow tomorrow and his career is over. Or you could sign him and watch Marmol figure out his control issues and become the most dominant reliever in baseball for a good chunk of the deal.

 

I have no idea what your first sentence means.

 

As for the rest, he isn't relatively consistent from year to year. He was very pedestrian in 2009. He is coming off a career year. The vast majority of these guys are not consistent every year, and that is the reason you don't sign him. Plus, the consistent ones don't walk a million people a year. If Marmol does what he did this year for the next two years, then go ahead and think about a longer term deal. But there is just no reason you sign him now unless he is offering an insance discount just for the security. It has nothing to do with taking line drives off the elbow, it's all about the inconsistency of relievers and his ridiculously injury inviting motion.

[UMFan83]

How far as the Cubs from FA with him?

 

I wouldn't suggest just letting him go at the end of his arb years, nor would I suggest signing him for 8 figures a year. But relievers with his stuff and are relatively consistent from year to year are hard to find. There are significant risks to a long term extension but while I am typically very against paying relievers a lot of money, I am ok with a big market team like the Cubs having one high paid reliever on the team (meaning up to 8 mil a year).

 

Sure you could sign him to a 4 year deal and watch him take a line drive off his elbow tomorrow and his career is over. Or you could sign him and watch Marmol figure out his control issues and become the most dominant reliever in baseball for a good chunk of the deal.

 

I have no idea what your first sentence means.

 

As for the rest, he isn't relatively consistent from year to year. He was very pedestrian in 2009. He is coming off a career year. The vast majority of these guys are not consistent every year, and that is the reason you don't sign him. Plus, the consistent ones don't walk a million people a year. If Marmol does what he did this year for the next two years, then go ahead and think about a longer term deal. But there is just no reason you sign him now unless he is offering an insance discount just for the security. It has nothing to do with taking line drives off the elbow, it's all about the inconsistency of relievers and his ridiculously injury inviting motion.

 

Sorry about the first sentence. I meant how many years is Marmol away from FA right now. My head is in a daze thinking about how I'm gonna miss the Bears game tonight.

 

While technically you were right, in 2009 Marmol was less than consistent vs. the other years of his career. But if a 1.5 WAR is pedestrian and thats his FLOOR, well then I'm fine with that. In the last 4 years only Marshall (10 - 1.9), Wood (08 - 1.8) and Marmol (07 - 2.8, 08 - 2.2, 09 - 1.5, 10 - 3.0) have had seasons out of the pen with a higher than 1.5 WAR. I'm perfectly fine with Marmol getting a 4 year, $20 mil deal to keep him on the team for the next 4 seasons.