Re: 2010 Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[Guest]

Jackson's write-up is free too.

 

1. Brett Jackson, OF

DOB: 8/2/88

Height/Weight: 6-2/210

Bats/Throws: L/R

Drafted/Signed: First round, 2009, University of California

2010 Stats: .316/420/.517 at High-A (67 G); .276/.366/.465 at Double-A (61 G)

Best/Worst Tool: Speed/none of note

Year in Review: This first-round pick reached Double-A in his full-season debut while scoring 103 runs in 128 games.

The Good: Jackson doesn't have a tool that rates below average. He works the count well, waits for pitches he can drive and shows gap-to-average power to all fields with no weaknesses against left-handed pitching. He's a plus runner who is dangerous on the basepaths, as well as a good outfielder with a strong and accurate arm.

The Bad: Jackson is more of a player without weaknesses than one with impact potential. He has power, but it's not plus, and he's fast but not a burner. There's a significant amount of swing-and-miss in his game, so he'll likely always have a high strikeout rate.

Ephemera: The 31st overall pick has been a cursed one in draft history when it comes to position players. Kurt Manwaring (1986) is the last position player taken with that slot to reach the big leagues, and one of only two (Tom Dodd hit one) to go deep in the big leagues.

Perfect World Projection: He could be an everyday outfielder with above-average (but not star-level) power and speed.

Fantasy Impact: He could hit 15-20 home runs and steal 20-plus bases per year. What's not to like?

Path to the Big Leagues: Jackson handled Double-A just fine last year, and will get an opportunity to move up to Triple-A Iowa with a strong spring. He should have a big-league job secured by the following season.

ETA: Late 2011.

[javy knows my name]

How is his range in CF? I heard his arm is not good, but does his range make up for it?

[Guancous]

There's a ranking bonanza today. John Sickels released his preliminary top 20 in alphabetical order: http://mobile.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/3/1853208/chicago-cubs-preliminary-prospect-list

[Guest]

How is his range in CF? I heard his arm is not good, but does his range make up for it?

 

My understanding is that he's a good defender in CF and RF, and I'm not familiar with reports that he has a weak arm.

[toonsterwu]

Solid arm, solid range. I don't think it's a plus arm.

 

I'm trying to debate which players to challenge in Sickels preliminary list. I think Matt Cerda should be on there instead of Marco Carrillo. Outside of that, no clear cut guy to replace where there is someone definitively more intriguing. Asked him what his limit was, though.

[davell]

I agreed with you on Cerda over Carrillo and also threw out Rhee over Beliveau, but only if he's going to be allowed to throw his splitter again. Also think Alcantara should be SOMEWHERE in the top 38, but he won't make the top 20, so I don't have a real issue if any of these guys get left off the prelim list.

[Guancous]

Toonsterwu, or any other prospect mavens, I have a question. The world is down on Marquez Smith. What's his ceiling in the bigs?

 

Pedro Feliz? Jose Lopez? Kevin Orie?

[TruffleShuffle]

i remember sickels being high on beliveau and liking him as a sleeper before that year, and the continued low hit rate and high strikeout rate shouldn't give him any reason to change his opinion.

[Outshined_One]

Toonsterwu, or any other prospect mavens, I have a question. The world is down on Marquez Smith. What's his ceiling in the bigs?

 

Kind of hard to judge right now. The only place he will likely have any value is at 3rd, since I remember the reports on him at 2B were not that pretty. He seems to be fine defensively at 3B. I'm skeptical enough of his bat as far as his power is concerned, although he should hit for enough average and OBP that he could be an okay starter on a bad team.

 

Rookie year Kevin Orie seems about right for ceiling.

[ScrubMD]

BP's list is out: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12522

 

System In 20 Words Or Less: Impact talent? Not really? Depth? You betcha.

Four-Star Prospects

1. Brett Jackson, OF

2. Trey McNutt, RHP

3. Chris Archer, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

4. Josh Vitters, 3B

5. Hak-Ju Lee, SS

6. Chris Carpenter, RHP

7. Hayden Simpson, RHP

8. Reggie Golden, OF

9. Jay Jackson, RHP

10. Robinson Lopez, RHP

11. Brandon Guyer, OF

 

Nine More:

12. Robinson Chirinos, C: This converted infielder is improving defensively, and he can really hit.

13. Marquez Smith, 3B: He's a bit of an older prospect, but Smith can provide power and defense at the hot corner.

14. Wellington Castillo, C: He has a plus arm and power; and could turn into nice backup or second-division starter.

15. Rafael Dolis, RHP: He's another power arm in a system full of them; scouts want to see him in relief.

16. Ben Wells, RHP: This seventh-round pick was late-riser in the spring; he has low-90s heat with projection.

17. Brett Wallach, RHP: The ex-Dodger arm could move up with more consistent control; his stuff is plus.

18. Darwin Barney, UT: He'll never be a star, will rarely start, but Barney could play a decade in the majors.

19. Austin Reed, RHP: One of the talks of Arizona, scouts love his size and arm action.

20. Alberto Cabrera, RHP: This long, skinny Dominican has plus-plus velo, but needs to refine his secondary stuff.

 

The rest is premium content so I won't post it.

 

 

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

[jersey cubs fan]

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

 

Because after the season somebody listed him as 19?

[sneakypower]

Toonsterwu, or any other prospect mavens, I have a question. The world is down on Marquez Smith. What's his ceiling in the bigs?

 

Pedro Feliz? Jose Lopez? Kevin Orie?

i've seen Joe Randa/David Bell comps for him

[Reaper]

Would someone please post summaries of BP's take on McNutt and Archer? :D

[davell]

Sickel's list is out......

 

1 BRETT JACKSON B+

2 TREY MCNUTT B+

3 CHRIS ARCHER B+

4 HAK JU LEE B

5 CHRIS CARPENTER B

6 JAY JACKSON B

7 HAYDEN SIMPSON B-

8 BRANDON GUYER B-

9 REGGIE GOLDEN B-

10 JOSH VITTERS C+

11 ROBINSON LOPEZ C+

12 AUSTIN REED C+

13 ALBERTO CABRERA C+

14 MARQUEZ SMITH C+

15 ROBINSON CHIRINOS C+

16 DJ LEMAHIEU C+

17 RAFAEL DOLIS C+

18 BRETT WALLACH C+

19 BROOKS RALEY C+

20 SU MIN JUNG C+

21 AUSTIN KIRK C+

22 JIN YEOUNG KIM C+

[jersey cubs fan]

Reggie Golden getting some love. Where's he set to play next year?

[davell]

Reggie Golden getting some love. Where's he set to play next year?

 

Most likely Peoria, assuming he has a solid ST.

[ScrubMD]

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

 

Because after the season somebody listed him as 19?

 

You connected the dots in expert fashion. Are there things that you don't take very seriously?

[ScrubMD]

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

 

Because after the season somebody listed him as 19?

 

You connected the dots in expert fashion. Are there things that you don't take very seriously?

 

And with the latest list, add a #12 to that, sucka

[jersey cubs fan]

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

 

Because after the season somebody listed him as 19?

 

You connected the dots in expert fashion. Are there things that you don't take very seriously?

 

And with the latest list, add a #12 to that, sucka

 

I don't take top 20 prospect lists very seriously.

[ScrubMD]

People thought I was crazy for having Austin Reed at #10 earlier in the year. My redemption begins.

 

Because after the season somebody listed him as 19?

 

You connected the dots in expert fashion. Are there things that you don't take very seriously?

 

And with the latest list, add a #12 to that, sucka

 

I don't take top 20 prospect lists very seriously.

 

Which means I doubt you'll take my redemption seriously. [expletive]

[CUBZ99]

That seems like Sickels views the Cubs system as a deep system. The top 9 all B- or above? With Vitters at 10? I like it.

[TruffleShuffle]

most people view the cubs system as being deep, but lacking in star-level potential.

[davell]

One really solid spending spree during the draft could change that though. I really hope to see a few more boom or bust type picks going forward. The more Reggie Golden type guys we take, the better chances we have on getting one or two of them right.

[Guest]

One really solid spending spree during the draft could change that though. I really hope to see a few more boom or bust type picks going forward. The more Reggie Golden type guys we take, the better chances we have on getting one or two of them right.

 

But that doesn't really fit Wilken's style.

[davell]

One really solid spending spree during the draft could change that though. I really hope to see a few more boom or bust type picks going forward. The more Reggie Golden type guys we take, the better chances we have on getting one or two of them right.

 

But that doesn't really fit Wilken's style.

 

Yeah, I know. I think Wilken is damn good at getting guys who can contribute too. Which is hells better than most scouting directors. I know he believes in taking "up the middle" types, which kind of takes the power quotient away right off the bat in most cases. And this upcoming draft appears(too early to tell probably) to be pitching heavy moreso than hitting. Which is fine with me too, if we get a guy who can profile as an ace.

 

In the end, I guess I'm hoping that since we are very strong up the middle now, maybe he'll start swaying from that philosophy a tad anyway.