Re: 2010 Cubs Top Prospect Lists

[CubColtPacer]

Keith Law's organization rankings:

 

20. Chicago Cubs

A top-10 system before the Garza trade, the Cubs probably would place more guys in the 101-150 range than any organization except the Royals. They're loaded with high-floor players who have the potential to be above-average or better big leaguers but aren't there yet. Considering all the picks they've given up to sign free agents, it's remarkable how strong the system still is after the giant trade with Tampa Bay.

 

The free agent comment is kind of strange. In the last 4 drafts, the Cubs have had 2 extra supplemental picks and have lost 1 second round pick. Their days of giving up draft picks for free agents are long gone.

[davell]

I think Law is very knowledgable overall, but when he starts talking about individual systems and their tendancies, it kind of shows that he's a national guy, not a team guy. Which is fine with me anyway. He probably just talks to a couple of people in each organization and goes from there with his own analysis from what he's heard. Then, he may add in a comment that doesn't quite make sense, because he probably doesn't do nearly as much research as what we think on these things anyway.

 

As for the ranking? I'm fine with it and figure that's about right. Same with his comment about having more 101-150ish types than just about anyone.

[nick23]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

[davell]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

 

 

Brett Jackson didn't make it? I'd suspect he was somewhere around 50ish or so.

[nick23]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

 

 

Brett Jackson didn't make it? I'd suspect he was somewhere around 50ish or so.

He had him at 101.

[davell]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

 

 

Brett Jackson didn't make it? I'd suspect he was somewhere around 50ish or so.

He had him at 101.

 

 

Damn, I hadn't seen Brett land that far down anyone's list in over a year.

[Clem Fandango]

FWIW, we would've had Archer at #40 and Lee at #49. Not having Brett Jackson on there is puzzling though. It's not like he had a bad year by any stretch of the imagination

[Clem Fandango]

Lots of Cubs on his "Just Missed" list... Brett Jackson, Jay Jackson, Josh Vitters, and Chris Carpenter

[davell]

I actually respect lists like this, because at least Law is taking chances with some of his picks. More than what most of these guys do.

[Guancous]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

 

 

Brett Jackson didn't make it? I'd suspect he was somewhere around 50ish or so.

He had him at 101.

 

 

Damn, I hadn't seen Brett land that far down anyone's list in over a year.

 

I think Law places a premium on how close a prospect is to the majors.

[Guest]

Just looked over his top 100 list. Only one Cub made the list. McNutt at 66.

 

 

Brett Jackson didn't make it? I'd suspect he was somewhere around 50ish or so.

He had him at 101.

 

 

Damn, I hadn't seen Brett land that far down anyone's list in over a year.

 

I think Law places a premium on how close a prospect is to the majors.

 

Lee wouldn't be at 49 if that was an overriding factor.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Jackson not cracking the top 100 is a travesty... good power, good discipline, good speed, numbers to back it up and close to the majors.... KLaw is on crack.

[Guancous]

 

I think Law places a premium on how close a prospect is to the majors.

 

Lee wouldn't be at 49 if that was an overriding factor.

 

Proximity to the majors and positional scarcity?

[toonsterwu]

Law indicated that he was placing an emphasis on upside. He also indicated somewhere, I think in a chat, that he might be underselling Brett a bit.

 

I don't get how a guy who can play a solid CF and offers above average bat potential slides to 101, though. You look at the numbers, and it's quite possible that he's a 3-4 WAR guy sooner than later, and at his peak, could be better. Hard for me to buy. It was an odd list from Keith Law this year, though. Hellickson was far lower than a lot of people's list. I mean, sure, ceiling matters, but a solid SP prospect with number 2 potential like Hellickson, and is ready? I'll take him in the top 10 of a prospect list.

[Scotti]

Law indicated that he was placing an emphasis on upside. He also indicated somewhere, I think in a chat, that he might be underselling Brett a bit.

 

I don't get how a guy who can play a solid CF and offers above average bat potential slides to 101, though.

 

I think that those who "doubt" Brett Jackson do so because they see a ton of K's and think he has a low floor (ignoring his BB's) and/or they DON'T feel that he has "above average bat potential" because of the Reed Johnson comp.

 

The "comp" to Johnson was, IMO, supposed to be about a guy who busts his but out there on the field and who plays above his speed but that got blown out of proportion into a "4th/5th OF" thing. That kind of thing can scare a guy like Law off... Some scout is comping Brett Jackson to a reserve OF? Time to back off BJ.

 

This just illustrates the vagaries of the whole prospect business. One month Hak-Ju Lee is NOT a plus, plus runner and the next month--without Lee playing a single game anywhere--the same guy says that he is. Or somehow Szcuzr does have plus, plus speed because he is faster than Brian Westbrook (who has never been notably fast).

 

Methinks there's a whole lot of "man behind the curtain" going on with BA, BP, Law, etc. As long as they maintain the mystique then they come off as credible pros. That's why you get couched answers like "every cross checker." How about "I've talked to two cross checkers and..."

 

Given the above I don't doubt that someone like Brett Jackson will show plus power this year and it will get credited to some workout regimen when anyone who has seen video from college or even the minors could tell you that he has real plus power. Maintain the mystique and the man behind the curtain keeps his job.

[craig]

Jackson had a 126K/12HR ratio as a pretty physically mature college guy, one whom Hendry has projected to play left field. And according to Law, after his first weekend in AA, he hit .250's with 1/3 K's. I can understand why some people wouldn't put that in their top 60.

 

Obviously the key is the HR's. He whiffed a ton in college, and at each pro stop. He's going to be a whiffer.

 

But how many HR's? Scotti mentioned that he has plenty of power and always has dating back to Cal. More favorable rankers assume his power will blossom into lots of HR's, and I trust that's the case. This year would be a nice time to see that. But if he's a 10-15 HR guy, it will be a lot harder.

 

He hit 12 this year, that's not a lot. I expect him to hit more in future, but we'll see. Scotti says he's been plenty strong for a while, so somehow he may need to make some adjustments and learn to swing for more HR's, if in fact he's not going to simply grow/physically mature into more physical power. If he's a 20+ HR guy, that goes a long ways further than when a guy is hitting 12. 12HR/126K isn't a great ratio, but 25HR/125 HR would be just fine.

 

In Szczur's press conference, he said that Hendry told him Szczur could be the 2014 CFer, with Colvin in right and Jackson in left. Obviously Hendry is doing this in the midst of a recruiting trip and over some drinks, so perhaps he forgot that he'll still be paying Soriano $19 million in 2014. But I thought it was interesting that he projected Jackson for left field. Makes sense, since Szczur is faster and Jackson's arm is unexceptional. Obviously that was premised on Szczur progressing and earning CF spot. If Szczur never does, Jackson may have no need to be moved out of center, and may be found just fine defensively even if not gold-glovish.

 

As an optimist on Jackson, (I ranked him 2nd in between ARcher and McNutt on my list), I think some doubters know he was a college guy and think he's older. But he'll still be only 22 until August. And by his own account, he was really drained by the end of the season (whether mentally or physically or both, I don't know.) So it may be that his August/September slide were as much a case of just being drained as that he was being overmatched by AA pitching. That being his first full season in the pros, I'm hopeful that he'll be better prepared and will sustain excellence better this summer.