Cliff Lee

[shnsajax]

Should the Cubs make a run at Cliff Lee. Its going to be very expensive and will probably take him into his 37th-38th Birthday. 9 times out of 10 I would say no. We will have Dempster off the books after next season. He's good enough to make me at least think about it, and if we stumble into the playoffs somehow the next two years who is our ace.

[Cubswin11]

I would love for Hendry to make him a priority, but I think the bidding will be too high in the end. I think his stuff translates well to last into his mid/late 30's, he's a control guy (which doesn't really go away with age) and he isn't a overpowering guy who once he loses his velo he is done.

[CubColtPacer]

Dempster probably won't be gone after next season. While he could probably get at least close to what he'll get in 2012 on the open market he loves Chicago so much that my guess is that he'll exercise that player option.

 

If the Cubs are going to go after any starting pitcher it should probably be an ace but it's probably still a bad use of resources. The Cubs don't have the money to sign an ace and a top flight bat and fill their other needs and they need the bat more. They still have plenty of starting pitching depth. I don't think signing Lee is an absolutely awful move but it probably should not be a high enough priority for it to be feasible to get him.

[hardcorecubfan]

The other alternative for a left handed starting pitcher is Ted Lilly. If having a left hader in the starting rotation is important, then make a run for him.

 

If we didn't get him then fall back on Lilly but would we be willing to give up on one of the best set up in Marshall and put him as a starter?

[Post Count Padder]

The Yanks want him, and they're gonna get him. They'll be giving him Sabathia money and I don't want the Cubs to have another giant contract on our hands that could turn sour.

[hardcorecubfan]

4 year 100 million with some of it being back-ended after his retirement and then put a lot of incentives in it to bring it up to a possible 115 million

[UMFan83]

I can't see us doing it, unless we were completely content with no major additions on offense. You add Lee and I don't see any payroll room to add any decent FAs at 1B, 2B, OF. With the postseason Lee has had for the last 2 years, it's gonna be an outrageous bidding war and his salary will probably take a majority of the money that Lilly and Lee made last year.

 

And lets face it, starting pitching wasn't the big issue the 2nd half of the season, it was anemic offense. Not saying Cliff Lee wouldn't help, or that we don't need an ace quality pitcher, but the money would be better spent in other areas.

 

So as much as I love Cliff Lee and would love to add him to the Cubs, I don't think we are even in the discussions for him.

[jersey cubs fan]

And lets face it, starting pitching wasn't the big issue the 2nd half of the season, it was anemic offense.

 

I'm not sure why you are breaking out 1st/2nd half. But starting pitching was part of the problem this year. Offense has consistently been the major problem for this organization, and pitching has more often than not been the strength. It was not good this year.

[Northside Blues]

wasn't our starters era 4.2 or so? thats not bad and this year was a bit below average, but it was hardly the problem. our anemic offense and bullpen was the problem.

[jersey cubs fan]

wasn't our starters era 4.2 or so? thats not bad and this year was a bit below average, but it was hardly the problem. our anemic offense and bullpen was the problem.

 

If you are below average you are bad and part of the problem.

You win games by scoring runs and limiting the number of runs you give up. If you can't score more runs then prevent more from your opponent.

[UMFan83]

And lets face it, starting pitching wasn't the big issue the 2nd half of the season, it was anemic offense.

 

I'm not sure why you are breaking out 1st/2nd half. But starting pitching was part of the problem this year. Offense has consistently been the major problem for this organization, and pitching has more often than not been the strength. It was not good this year.

 

I singled out the 2nd half because 40% of the rotation from the 1st half wasn't on the team (Lilly) or wasn't a big factor (Silva) in the 2nd half. The rotation of Z, Dempster, Wells, Gorzalanny and Coleman put together a solid 2nd half. And while we cannot count on anything but inconsistency with Z, and Wells and Coleman don't have a ton of upside, the offense is a much bigger need and question mark than the starting pitching. It might not have been up to the standards of the last several years but it was probably better than average in the NL. If you are dealing with finite resources to improve your club, and you look at the statistics, its a no brainer to use those stats to improve the offense. There's more marginal benefit to improving the offense if you actually acquire the right people, which is a different argument in itself.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's more marginal benefit to improving the offense if you actually acquire the right people, which is a different argument in itself.

 

And a very important one nonetheless. If they can find the right 1B, then great, they've done their job. This team sucks at acquiring offense though. And Cliff Lee taking over the spot from whoever would have been the 5th starter would provide a pretty substantial improvement.

[dew1679666265]

wasn't our starters era 4.2 or so? thats not bad and this year was a bit below average, but it was hardly the problem. our anemic offense and bullpen was the problem.

 

If you are below average you are bad and part of the problem.

You win games by scoring runs and limiting the number of runs you give up. If you can't score more runs then prevent more from your opponent.

 

As a team, our starters finished with a 4.04 FIP and 4.28 xFIP. That's 14th and 16th respectively in the majors. Basically average.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to adding an ace quality starting pitcher, but if I'm overpaying for an older player, I'm overpaying for offense – particularly Dunn.

[UMFan83]

There's more marginal benefit to improving the offense if you actually acquire the right people, which is a different argument in itself.

 

And a very important one nonetheless. If they can find the right 1B, then great, they've done their job. This team sucks at acquiring offense though. And Cliff Lee taking over the spot from whoever would have been the 5th starter would provide a pretty substantial improvement.

 

Well I'd agree with you there. And actually after looking up some stats, I might partially take back my argument earlier. The Cubs starters ERA in the 2nd half of the season was 3.97 which is 8th in the NL, right in the middle. But if you break it down by month, results are over the place, but more often than not in the 2nd half of the year the numbers are below average

 

April: 3.47 (4th)

May: 4.35 (11th)

June: 3.68 (1st)

July: 4.45 (12th)

August: 4.53 (12th)

September: 3.52 (5th)

 

So in the 3 months after the ASB they had a starters ERA around 4.5 which is bad for 2 months, and then in September in the month its notoriously difficult to evaluate players, it's really good. So after seeing that I'm more apt to look into spending finite resources at improving the pitching.

[jersey cubs fan]

As a team, our starters finished with a 4.04 FIP and 4.28 xFIP. That's 14th and 16th respectively in the majors. Basically average.

 

How about in the NL. I find it kind of useless to compare across NL and AL.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's more marginal benefit to improving the offense if you actually acquire the right people, which is a different argument in itself.

 

And a very important one nonetheless. If they can find the right 1B, then great, they've done their job. This team sucks at acquiring offense though. And Cliff Lee taking over the spot from whoever would have been the 5th starter would provide a pretty substantial improvement.

 

Well I'd agree with you there. And actually after looking up some stats, I might partially take back my argument earlier. The Cubs starters ERA in the 2nd half of the season was 3.97 which is 8th in the NL, right in the middle. But if you break it down by month, results are over the place, but more often than not in the 2nd half of the year the numbers are below average

 

April: 3.47 (4th)

May: 4.35 (11th)

June: 3.68 (1st)

July: 4.45 (12th)

August: 4.53 (12th)

September: 3.52 (5th)

 

So in the 3 months after the ASB they had a starters ERA around 4.5 which is bad for 2 months, and then in September in the month its notoriously difficult to evaluate players, it's really good. So after seeing that I'm more apt to look into spending finite resources at improving the pitching.

 

 

All I'm saying is I'm open to any and all options, because this team isn't limited to one problem and they could use any really good player. They don't have enougho of those.

[champaignchris]

Lee has been absolutely extraordinary over the last three years. I'd love to have seen that in a Cubs uniform. But I've got to admit, there's something about him that would make me a bit wary about signing him long term. Maybe it's because he was nothing but average until he was 29 years old. I'm not confident that he'll be able to keep doing what he's doing and that what I would have to pay to sign him would end up being significantly more than he's worth.

 

Maybe I'm completely off base. Maybe Lee's the epitome of the late-blooming lefty and will still be dealing at 37, 38 years old. I'm just not sure I'd really want to gamble $20 million a year for six years to find out.

[UMFan83]

Well there is a reason that Lee turned around his career at age 29. He developed a cutter which turned out to be one of the most dangerous pitches in baseball, and mixed it up with pinpoint control of his fastball and breaking ball, which allowed him to hit the outside corners for unhittable strikes, and then come in with that cutter. As others have said, his stuff seems to be the type that ages well as it relies on control more than overpowering a hitter. I'm not sure about injury risk, but in terms of stuff, I would have no problem giving him a 4 year deal. Probably a 5 but I'd be less enthusiastic.

[hardcorecubfan]

I am still iffy on Silva because we didn't get to see a full years worth of him

[jersey cubs fan]

I hope everybody is iffy on Silva.

[daske17]

Unless Cliff Lee can play first and have a .370 OBP, he isn't worth the cost.

[UMFan83]

I hope everybody is iffy on Silva.

 

I'm not. He sucks.

[jersey cubs fan]

I hope everybody is iffy on Silva.

 

I'm not. He sucks.

 

touche

 

I hope iffy is as good as anybody feels about Silva, but they should feel worse

[dew1679666265]

As a team, our starters finished with a 4.04 FIP and 4.28 xFIP. That's 14th and 16th respectively in the majors. Basically average.

 

How about in the NL. I find it kind of useless to compare across NL and AL.

 

10th in both FIP and xFIP in the NL. So slightly below average among NL teams.

 

Interestingly enough, our wOBA was 10th in the NL as well. So we're about in the same place offensively as our starting pitching is. I'd still prefer a bat, but wouldn't oppose going after an ace-type pitcher.

[17 Seconds]

figured this is a good place to post cliff lee's ridiculous career postseason stats

 

64.1 IP

40 H

7 BB

67 K

1 HR

.58 WHIP

.197 OBA

.426 OPSA

 

this postseason he has 1 bb and 34 k's