Hendry NOT looking to rebuild Cubs

[Exile on Waveland]

This just in: Fukudome is good.

 

He's second on the Cubs in on base percentage, OPS, and OPS+, and fourth in slugging. He plays good defense. Why in the world should the Cubs trade him? Sure, meatheads hate him, but I don't exactly find that persuasive.

 

Is it wrong to think Crawford is better?

 

Of course not. I'd take Crawford over Fukudome too. But the Cubs, as currently constructed, are a 60-80 team. Why would they trade one of their best players -- likely for pennies on the dollar -- and then likely overpay for a relatively marginal upgrade?

 

If you want Crawford, trade Byrd.

[EhDubya]

This just in: Fukudome is good.

 

He's second on the Cubs in on base percentage, OPS, and OPS+, and fourth in slugging. He plays good defense. Why in the world should the Cubs trade him? Sure, meatheads hate him, but I don't exactly find that persuasive.

 

Is it wrong to think Crawford is better?

 

Of course not. I'd take Crawford over Fukudome too. But the Cubs, as currently constructed, are a 60-80 team. Why would they trade one of their best players -- likely for pennies on the dollar -- and then likely overpay for a relatively marginal upgrade?

 

If you want Crawford, trade Byrd.

 

In my imaginary scenario, we wouldn't trade Fukudome for "pennies on the dollar", especially since baseball people know he's got value. And I like Byrd and the rest of his contract. In fact, I would rank em:

 

1. CF Byrd + RF Crawford (for 2 years, at least)

2. CF Crawford + RF Fukudome (for 1 year)

 

But that's just me. :-s

[Exile on Waveland]

This just in: Fukudome is good.

 

He's second on the Cubs in on base percentage, OPS, and OPS+, and fourth in slugging. He plays good defense. Why in the world should the Cubs trade him? Sure, meatheads hate him, but I don't exactly find that persuasive.

 

Is it wrong to think Crawford is better?

 

Of course not. I'd take Crawford over Fukudome too. But the Cubs, as currently constructed, are a 60-80 team. Why would they trade one of their best players -- likely for pennies on the dollar -- and then likely overpay for a relatively marginal upgrade?

 

If you want Crawford, trade Byrd.

 

In my imaginary scenario, we wouldn't trade Fukudome for "pennies on the dollar", especially since baseball people know he's got value. And I like Byrd and the rest of his contract. In fact, I would rank em:

 

1. CF Byrd + RF Crawford (for 2 years, at least)

2. CF Crawford + RF Fukudome (for 1 year)

 

But that's just me. :-s

 

Well, you have a higher opinion of baseball people than I do. I would be very surprised if the Cubs got much of a return in a Fukudome trade (with the caveat of eating all his salary).

[muntjack]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

[JeffH]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

 

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

[dew1679666265]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

 

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

 

Kosuke OPS: .844

Crawford OPS: .845

 

Kosuke wOBA: .367

Crawford wOBA: .374

[Jazz]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

 

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

 

Kosuke OPS: .844

Crawford OPS: .845

 

Kosuke wOBA: .367

Crawford wOBA: .374

 

I think you have to account for Crawford's SB though. I do agree that he is only a marginable upgrade and likely won't be worth the contract he commands.

[ZipDog]

MLBTR on the rotation for next year:

 

Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva may not be utterly dominant, but they will provide the Cubs with certainty this winter and quality innings next season. If healthy, those four starters should account for most of Chicago's rotation in 2011. They won't be enough, of course. The Cubs will need a fifth starter, too and while Carlos Zambrano could continue improving and fill that role, it may not be that simple.

 

The Cubs will likely consider trading Zambrano but their offseason doesn’t hinge on making a trade, like it did a year ago when they flipped Milton Bradley for Silva. Zambrano's season reached a low point when he got into a dugout shouting match with Derrek Lee, but he has pitched well since returning from the restricted list. He has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning since the end of July, but is walking more batters than usual, which is something, considering Zambrano has a career walk rate of 4.1 BB/9.

 

If the Cubs hold onto Zambrano, they probably won’t be in the market for starting pitching, since they have other internal candidates who could fill in. But if they trade Zambrano - and it wouldn't be easy given the $17.875MM he makes in 2011 - the Cubs would have an empty rotation spot and could consider signing a free agent starter. The caliber of that starter might depend on the savings from a Zambrano deal.

 

But even if GM Jim Hendry doesn't like the options on the free agent market, he has a number of potential starters in the organization. Jeff Samardzija and Casey Coleman could contend for a rotation spot if one opens because of a trade or injury. Samardzija has a high walk rate in Triple A this year (5.4 BB/9), so he'd probably have to show the Cubs that he can limit free passes. Coleman has posted a 5.81 ERA in the majors and has walked more batters than he has struck out, but his Triple A numbers were much better (4.07 ERA, 2.7 BB/9). Baseball America noted before the season that Coleman has a good feel for pitching, which isn't surprising since his father and grandfather pitched in the majors leagues before him.

 

Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner are both contributing out of the ‘pen now, but the Cubs could stretch them out if necessary. Marshall has been one of the National League's best left-handed relievers this year, but he started games regularly from 2006-09. Cashner's used to starting, too; he had a 2.05 ERA as a starter in the upper minors this year before the Cubs called him up.

 

Thomas Diamond started three games for the Cubs this year, but has struggled to limit walks. The former first rounder has faced just over 100 batters in his major league career, so it seems more likely that he'll pitch in the minors or the bullpen for now. Chris Archer, who doesn’t turn 22 until later this month, posted a 2.34 ERA with 9.4 K/9 in the minors this year, but he has appeared in just 13 AA games, so he will need time to develop.

 

Remember that, in all likelihood, the Cubs will have a new manager by Spring Training. That means the fifth spot in the rotation depends not only on the team's offseason moves, but on their new manager's preferences. It's too early to predict how it will all unfold, but we can safely say that Zambrano appears to be the leading candidate to be the team's fifth starter. If the Cubs trade him, they may consider free agents or turn to internal options like Coleman, Samardzija, Marshall and Cashner.

 

 

_______

 

By the way....and, just for laughs.....I have Mark Prior XXL jerseys (home stripes, road grays, and alternate blues) for sales, just in case you or anybody is interested. He was my very favorite player until he blew up.

 

I honestly hope he can succeed in his comeback attempt with the Texas Rangers organization.

 

I noticed your "formerly known as" signature; and, I must say, it made me laugh.....and, cry at the expense I put out for the jerseys.

 

:good:

[woodchip2153]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

 

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

 

Kosuke OPS: .844

Crawford OPS: .845

 

Kosuke wOBA: .367

Crawford wOBA: .374

 

I think you have to account for Crawford's SB though. I do agree that he is only a marginable upgrade and likely won't be worth the contract he commands.

 

wOBA does include SB and CS.

[Guest]

They have had nearly the exact same offensive value this season.

 

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

 

Kosuke OPS: .844

Crawford OPS: .845

 

Kosuke wOBA: .367

Crawford wOBA: .374

 

I think you have to account for Crawford's SB though. I do agree that he is only a marginable upgrade and likely won't be worth the contract he commands.

 

wOBA does include SB and CS.

JeffH's point was that while the rates may be the same, cumulative value is certainly in Crawford's favor due to the additional PA's.

[woodchip2153]

That seems highly unlikely, since Kosuke has 200 fewer plate appearances than Crawford.

 

Kosuke OPS: .844

Crawford OPS: .845

 

Kosuke wOBA: .367

Crawford wOBA: .374

 

I think you have to account for Crawford's SB though. I do agree that he is only a marginable upgrade and likely won't be worth the contract he commands.

 

wOBA does include SB and CS.

JeffH's point was that while the rates may be the same, cumulative value is certainly in Crawford's favor due to the additional PA's.

yea, I agreed with JeffH's point was just pointing out to Jazz that wOBA included those things. I just wish everybody would start using wOBA instead of OPS.

[dew1679666265]

JeffH's point was that while the rates may be the same, cumulative value is certainly in Crawford's favor due to the additional PA's.

 

Value and production are different things, though. Kosuke is likely to be just as productive as Crawford if the Cubs hadn't decided to bench the superior player for an extended period of time - that's not Kosuke's fault.

[CubColtPacer]

JeffH's point was that while the rates may be the same, cumulative value is certainly in Crawford's favor due to the additional PA's.

 

Value and production are different things, though. Kosuke is likely to be just as productive as Crawford if the Cubs hadn't decided to bench the superior player for an extended period of time - that's not Kosuke's fault.

 

Out of the 200 extra AB's Crawford has over Fukudome, 140 of them have been against left-handers. Kosuke would likely have a decent drop in his numbers if he had to play as much against left-handers as Crawford has.

[flyseye]

Fukudome:

 

June 2010

.485 OPS

.189 BA

0 HR

 

July 2010

.665 OPS

.162 BA

2 HR

 

June 2009

.507 OPS

.169 BA

0 HR

 

Sept 2009

.665 OPS

.202 BA

0 HR

 

Aug 2008

.546 OPS

.193 BA

1 HR

 

Sept 2008

.577 OPS

.178 BA

1 HR

 

While Fukudome ends up with decent overall #s as a rule, it is tough to field a player who is pretty much only good for a few walks 2 months out of every year. His slumps are drastic/long enough that they can not be overlooked.When he is good, he is very good, but WTF.

[dew1679666265]

Out of the 200 extra AB's Crawford has over Fukudome, 140 of them have been against left-handers. Kosuke would likely have a decent drop in his numbers if he had to play as much against left-handers as Crawford has.

 

Good point. Though Kosuke does have a .900 OPS against lefties this year . . .

 

(though in just 39 PAs)

[wvcbxl]

MLBTR on the rotation for next year:

 

... in all likelihood, the Cubs will have a new manager by Spring Training...

 

I know it's wishful thinking, but when I read that I automatically put the word "general" in to the sentence.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Now that Aramis has announced his plans to stay, doesnt it almost force the Cubs hand to at least try to make 2011 a win now year? Considering the money they'll be paying Ram, Z, Soriano, Kosuke, Demp, and Silva, it will be impossible to make it a rebuilding year. I say go get a solid 1B and go for it next year.

[Sammy Sofa]

How would it have been a rebuilding year anyway? Look at the [expletive] FA class. They can still do the critical thing, signing Dunn, with all of those guys still on the team.

[Little Slide Rooter]

How would it have been a rebuilding year anyway? Look at the [expletive] FA class. They can still do the critical thing, signing Dunn, with all of those guys still on the team.

 

With the weak FA class,Fuku might be a good sell high candidate , but thers no other high paid player we could get enough money for to be worth it. Even if they didnt, with the Lee and Lilly money off the books, we should be able to afford Dunn.

 

Fuku/DeWitt(if we trade Kosuke)

Castro

Ram

Dunn

Soto

Soriano

Byrd

DeWitt/Colvin

 

would be a pretty solid lineup.

 

if we could get the Z we have now and the Demp weve had most of the season, we could probably put together a decent 3-5 between Wells, Gorz, Cashner, Silva, Coleman, Jackson, Shark and maybe Carpenter or Archer.

 

Guz, Marshall, and Marmol would be as good a back bullpen as there is.

 

Between Colvin, Chirinos, Barney, Hoff, Snyder, LaHair, Marquez Smith, and Fuld we could piece together a decent bench without wasting money on it.

[Sammy Sofa]

They're not trading those big contracts for anything of value unless they pick up a good chunk of them, so there's little reason to try and trade someone like Fukudome unless another team is desperate to have him, and that's not likely. My point is that it was pointless to bring up the idea of next year being a "rebuilding year" because the FA class isn't conducive to actually rebuilding a team and the Cubs don't have enough players that they can actually sell high on, and the Cubs aren't really a team that needs to be "rebuilt." Enough of their big contracts will be steadily coming off the books after next season that they don't have do something so drastic.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Im not disagreeing with you at all about not needing to be rebuilt, however, I guess the term rebuilt means different things to different people. When I think of rebuilding, I dont think of getting rid of our veterans just to go after new FA vets. I think of getting rid of vets and building a team around guys like Castro, Soto, and Colvin and building around them with our farm hands, and scouting other teams for potential low risk/high reward players, IE Alex Gordon. However, with all the money that is in this team, it isnt realistic, and adding a bat like Adam Dunn to what we already have can open our window right back up even if it is for only a year or 2.

 

As far as additions, Dunns really the main target, but I wouldnt be opposed to adding another starter if there was a decent buy low option like Eric Bedard or Justin Ducherer for cheap if possible.

[Sammy Sofa]

With as much money as the Cubs have there's zero excuse to resort to building a team around Soto, Castro and Colvin, because that team will suck.

[Little Slide Rooter]

With as much money as the Cubs have there's zero excuse to resort to building a team around Soto, Castro and Colvin, because that team will suck.

 

Thats usually how a rebuild works. Team sucks for a few years while they hope that the young players grow and the pump out more from the farm system. It works for teams like the Rockies and Rays, but for others, like the Royals and Pirates, its doesnt. This is basically more for mower budget teams and not teams like the Cubs, but its pretty much how they were ru throughout the 90's.

[Sammy Sofa]

Which is why the Cubs rebuilding would be stupid. Glad that this has been settled.

[Tracer Bullet]

JeffH's point was that while the rates may be the same, cumulative value is certainly in Crawford's favor due to the additional PA's.

 

Value and production are different things, though. Kosuke is likely to be just as productive as Crawford if the Cubs hadn't decided to bench the superior player for an extended period of time - that's not Kosuke's fault.

 

Out of the 200 extra AB's Crawford has over Fukudome, 140 of them have been against left-handers. Kosuke would likely have a decent drop in his numbers if he had to play as much against left-handers as Crawford has.

 

are we positive that Fukudome is a flub against lefties? He's been very good this year (few PAs) but it's not like he has hundreds of MLB PAs on which to base the conclusion that his ability to get on base plummets against LHP.