Rumor: Marmol to be traded to Reds?

[RedFlash]

Deal him. You don't build around closers not named Mariano Rivera.

 

You don't around closers, period, and that includes Rivera.

[Guest]

Deal him. You don't build around closers not named Mariano Rivera.

His slider is damn near as good as Rivera's cutter, but he doesn't have control and never will. I'd be for dealing him for a can't miss prospect, not some 25 year old AA washout.

[Wrigley Rat]

My opinion of the Cubs 40-man roster breakdown of tradeability:

Pitchers

- Mitch Atkins (Not much value due to performance)

- Justin Berg (Not much value due to performance)

- Esmailin Caridad (Injured)

- Andrew Cashner (Build around him)

- Ryan Dempster TRADEABLE (But he is valuable to our team)

- Rafael Dolis TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- John Gaub TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Tom Gorzelanny TRADEABLE (But he is valuable & relatively cheap)

- John Grabow (Injured)

- Jeff Gray (Not much value due to performance)

- Angel Guzman (Injured)

- Bob Howry (No trade value, but can be waived)

- Ted Lilly TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects)

- Carlos Marmol TRADEABLE (for a high-level prospect or two)

- Sean Marshall TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects - people will argue this)

- Marcos Mateo (Not much value)

- Blake Parker TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- James Russell TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Jeff Samardzija (Not much value due to contract & performance)

- Brian Schlitter TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Carlos Silva (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - might be a sell-high opportunity though)

- Jeff Stevens TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Randy Wells TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Carlos Zambrano (No trade value - we would have to eat nearly the whole contract - don't sell low)

Catchers

- Welington Castillo TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap - decide who we are keeping of him, Chirinos, Clevenger, Robinson & trade 1-2 others)

- Koyie Hill (No trade value)

- Geovany Soto TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

Infielders

- Jeff Baker (No trade value)

- Starlin Castro (Build around him)

- Mike Fontenot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two) (2 arbitration years left)

- Micah Hoffpauir (No trade value)

- Derrek Lee (No trade clause - he could waived it though - not much trade value)

- Aramis Ramirez (Full no trade clause until next year - no trade value)

- Ryan Theriot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two)

Outfielders

- James Adduci TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Marlon Byrd TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Tyler Colvin (Build around him)

- Kosuke Fukudome (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - tradeable next year this time)

- Sam Fuld (Not much value - could be DFA this off-season)

- Xavier Nady (Not much value - FA)

- Alfonso Soriano (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - should be tradeable in 2-3 years)

[Tryptamine]

My opinion of the Cubs 40-man roster breakdown of tradeability:

Pitchers

- Mitch Atkins (Not much value due to performance)

- Justin Berg (Not much value due to performance)

- Esmailin Caridad (Injured)

- Andrew Cashner (Build around him)

- Ryan Dempster TRADEABLE (But he is valuable to our team)

- Rafael Dolis TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- John Gaub TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Tom Gorzelanny TRADEABLE (But he is valuable & relatively cheap)

- John Grabow (Injured)

- Jeff Gray (Not much value due to performance)

- Angel Guzman (Injured)

- Bob Howry (No trade value, but can be waived)

- Ted Lilly TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects)

- Carlos Marmol TRADEABLE (for a high-level prospect or two)

- Sean Marshall TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects - people will argue this)

- Marcos Mateo (Not much value)

- Blake Parker TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- James Russell TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Jeff Samardzija (Not much value due to contract & performance)

- Brian Schlitter TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Carlos Silva (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - might be a sell-high opportunity though)

- Jeff Stevens TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Randy Wells TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Carlos Zambrano (No trade value - we would have to eat nearly the whole contract - don't sell low)

Catchers

- Welington Castillo TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap - decide who we are keeping of him, Chirinos, Clevenger, Robinson & trade 1-2 others)

- Koyie Hill (No trade value)

- Geovany Soto TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

Infielders

- Jeff Baker (No trade value)

- Starlin Castro (Build around him)

- Mike Fontenot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two) (2 arbitration years left)

- Micah Hoffpauir (No trade value)

- Derrek Lee (No trade clause - he could waived it though - not much trade value)

- Aramis Ramirez (Full no trade clause until next year - no trade value)

- Ryan Theriot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two)

Outfielders

- James Adduci TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Marlon Byrd TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Tyler Colvin (Build around him)

- Kosuke Fukudome (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - tradeable next year this time)

- Sam Fuld (Not much value - could be DFA this off-season)

- Xavier Nady (Not much value - FA)

- Alfonso Soriano (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - should be tradeable in 2-3 years)

 

So you feel we should build around Colvin, but Soto isn't quite up to par eh? Unless Colvin maintains one of the league's highest hr/fb ratios and an extrodinarily high babip we need to expect some major regression.

[Wrigley Rat]

- Geovany Soto TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

 

So you feel we should build around Colvin, but Soto isn't quite up to par eh? Unless Colvin maintains one of the league's highest hr/fb ratios and an extrodinarily high babip we need to expect some major regression.

They can build around Soto too. I'd prefer that we hold on to all of the "young and cheap" players that we can.

[Guest]

My opinion of the Cubs 40-man roster breakdown of tradeability:

Pitchers

- Mitch Atkins (Not much value due to performance)

- Justin Berg (Not much value due to performance)

- Esmailin Caridad (Injured)

- Andrew Cashner (Build around him)

- Ryan Dempster TRADEABLE (But he is valuable to our team)

- Rafael Dolis TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- John Gaub TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Tom Gorzelanny TRADEABLE (But he is valuable & relatively cheap)

- John Grabow (Injured)

- Jeff Gray (Not much value due to performance)

- Angel Guzman (Injured)

- Bob Howry (No trade value, but can be waived)

- Ted Lilly TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects)

- Carlos Marmol TRADEABLE (for a high-level prospect or two)

- Sean Marshall TRADEABLE (for 2-3 mid-level prospects - people will argue this)

- Marcos Mateo (Not much value)

- Blake Parker TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- James Russell TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Jeff Samardzija (Not much value due to contract & performance)

- Brian Schlitter TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Carlos Silva (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - might be a sell-high opportunity though)

- Jeff Stevens TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Randy Wells TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Carlos Zambrano (No trade value - we would have to eat nearly the whole contract - don't sell low)

Catchers

- Welington Castillo TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap - decide who we are keeping of him, Chirinos, Clevenger, Robinson & trade 1-2 others)

- Koyie Hill (No trade value)

- Geovany Soto TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

Infielders

- Jeff Baker (No trade value)

- Starlin Castro (Build around him)

- Mike Fontenot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two) (2 arbitration years left)

- Micah Hoffpauir (No trade value)

- Derrek Lee (No trade clause - he could waived it though - not much trade value)

- Aramis Ramirez (Full no trade clause until next year - no trade value)

- Ryan Theriot TRADEABLE (for a mid-level prospect or two)

Outfielders

- James Adduci TRADEABLE (But he is young and cheap)

- Marlon Byrd TRADEABLE (But he is valuable)

- Tyler Colvin (Build around him)

- Kosuke Fukudome (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - tradeable next year this time)

- Sam Fuld (Not much value - could be DFA this off-season)

- Xavier Nady (Not much value - FA)

- Alfonso Soriano (Makes too much money to trade without eating a lot of money - should be tradeable in 2-3 years)

 

So you feel we should build around Colvin, but Soto isn't quite up to par eh? Unless Colvin maintains one of the league's highest hr/fb ratios and an extrodinarily high babip we need to expect some major regression.

 

Man, people are in for a rude surprise when Colvin regresses in the second half of this season or in 2011.

[Sammy Sofa]

So you feel we should build around Colvin, but Soto isn't quite up to par eh? Unless Colvin maintains one of the league's highest hr/fb ratios and an extrodinarily high babip we need to expect some major regression.

 

Man, people are in for a rude surprise when Colvin regresses in the second half of this season or in 2011.

 

No kidding. It'd be great if Colvin panned out to be a useful full time player, but man, some people are so easily swayed by home runs. Hopefully his power is indicative he can do more, because right now he can basically only hit home runs sometimes and that's it. Very nice day today, yeah, but going into it today over his last 5 starts (23 PA) he posted this amazing line:

 

.130 .130 .130 .261

 

Over the last 2 weeks (with 10 starts and 45 PA)?

 

.178 .178 .311 .489

 

And that was with 2 home runs.

 

The last month (16 starts and 75 PA)?

 

.247 .267 .438 .705

 

And that's largely due to 4 home runs and a couple of doubles. And striking out 19 times (21 including today) compared to 2 walks.

 

Yes, sample size, but his success falls under the same skewed perspective. He has a TON to prove, and that so many people seem ready to hand him the keys to be a starting OF for the Cubs already is really odd. As it stands right now, unless he keeps hitting home runs at an insanely ridiculous rate when compared to his obvious flaws elsewhere, this is a kid who has a lot of work to do.

[davell]

Yeah, as much as I'm liking what Colvin has done to this point, I don't consider him a "build around guy". We may as well give him this year and next to show us what he's got though.

 

 

Also, I think Lilly can bring us a very solid return at this point. By that, I mean a borderline top 100ish type and 1-2 guys who are at least in their teams top 30 lists.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, as much as I'm liking what Colvin has done to this point, I don't consider him a "build around guy". We may as well give him this year and next to show us what he's got though.

 

Or they attempt to get another OF on a short term deal after Kosuke is ideally traded and let Colvin go back to the minors.

[davell]

Yeah, as much as I'm liking what Colvin has done to this point, I don't consider him a "build around guy". We may as well give him this year and next to show us what he's got though.

 

Or they attempt to get another OF on a short term deal after Kosuke is ideally traded and let Colvin go back to the minors.

 

My prediction on our OF situation for 2011: Fukudome traded away in offseason, Soriano in LF, Byrd in CF, and Colvin in RF to start the year. By June, our starting OF will be Soriano in LF, Brett Jackson in CF and Marlon Byrd in RF with Colvin settled in as a solid 4th OFer, where he will likely remain for his career as a Cub.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, as much as I'm liking what Colvin has done to this point, I don't consider him a "build around guy". We may as well give him this year and next to show us what he's got though.

 

Or they attempt to get another OF on a short term deal after Kosuke is ideally traded and let Colvin go back to the minors.

 

My prediction on our OF situation for 2011: Fukudome traded away in offseason, Soriano in LF, Byrd in CF, and Colvin in RF to start the year. By June, our starting OF will be Soriano in LF, Brett Jackson in CF and Marlon Byrd in RF with Colvin settled in as a solid 4th OFer, where he will likely remain for his career as a Cub.

 

I like the cut of that fanciful jib.

[erik316wttn]

Deal him. You don't build around closers not named Mariano Rivera.

His slider is damn near as good as Rivera's cutter, but he doesn't have control and never will. I'd be for dealing him for a can't miss prospect, not some 25 year old AA washout.

 

There is no such thing as a "can't miss" prospect, but I do understand your point.

 

As I said, I'm not opposed to dealing him, but we had better get the moon.

[RedFlash]

Yeah, as much as I'm liking what Colvin has done to this point, I don't consider him a "build around guy". We may as well give him this year and next to show us what he's got though.

 

Or they attempt to get another OF on a short term deal after Kosuke is ideally traded and let Colvin go back to the minors.

 

My prediction on our OF situation for 2011: Fukudome traded away in offseason, Soriano in LF, Byrd in CF, and Colvin in RF to start the year. By June, our starting OF will be Soriano in LF, Brett Jackson in CF and Marlon Byrd in RF with Colvin settled in as a solid 4th OFer, where he will likely remain for his career as a Cub.

 

And if Colvin proves he is an starting RF without a platoon, what then?

[Sammy Sofa]

And if Colvin proves he is an starting RF without a platoon, what then?

 

It would be cool if he could even prove that he can consistently be a starting corner OF in the minors first.

 

Let's put it this way: there's absolutely no reason to rush Colvin or make definitive assumptions about his ability in the majors right now. It's cool that he's knocked out so many HR in such relatively limited playing time, but holy God, the rest of his offense is in this same stretch is mostly appalling and wildly all over the place.

[CUBZ99]

And if Colvin proves he is an starting RF without a platoon, what then?

 

It would be cool if he could even prove that he can consistently be a starting corner OF in the minors first.

 

Let's put it this way: there's absolutely no reason to rush Colvin or make definitive assumptions about his ability in the majors right now. It's cool that he's knocked out so many HR in such relatively limited playing time, but holy God, the rest of his offense is in this same stretch is mostly appalling and wildly all over the place.

 

They have already called him up to the majors and he is far from struggling. At this point, barring some horrible stretch of him struggling, it would be ignorant to send him back to the minors. Let him work out his problems where he is at.

[davell]

If I had to make a guess on what Colvin eventually becomes, this is what I'd say: Over the course of a season, he'll probably hit around .270ish or so. He won't be walking much, so maybe a .315ish OBP to with 20ish to 25 homers, if he got an entire season's worth of at bats. I would also expect him to be VERY streaky in the process. To me, this is not a longterm starter on a major market team honestly.

 

Of course, it's too early to know for sure......So, if he somehow played his way into a regular spot next season, to the point where we were CONVINCED(and I'm not sure there is a way for him to do that this year) he was a solid, longtime fixture in our lineup, what to do with our OF at that point, with Brett Jackson soon to be ready.......

 

Couple of choices right now and I don't really like any of them personally. Byrd can play any of the OF spots and so can Colvin, so they do give you some flexibility that way, which is a good thing. That said, given our current team setup, the options to me are to move either Colvin or Soriano to 1B, play the other one in LF with Jackson in CF and Byrd in RF.(Colvin could play RF and Byrd LF too, I suppose) Needless to say, I don't like these choices and don't know that maybe signing a 1B and just using a 4-Man OF isn't a better option than this.

 

Personally, I want to sell as high as possible. And in order to do this, I think he'll have to keep doing what he's doing all season. I'd much rather trade Colvin with Vitters and whatever we get for our future Ted Lilly trade to try to get AGon myself. Sell high on Colvin while we can and while there are probably still a ton of doubters of him, if he can exprapolate his current production into a full season, this IS be our best case scenario for him.

[Sammy Sofa]

And if Colvin proves he is an starting RF without a platoon, what then?

 

It would be cool if he could even prove that he can consistently be a starting corner OF in the minors first.

 

Let's put it this way: there's absolutely no reason to rush Colvin or make definitive assumptions about his ability in the majors right now. It's cool that he's knocked out so many HR in such relatively limited playing time, but holy God, the rest of his offense is in this same stretch is mostly appalling and wildly all over the place.

 

They have already called him up to the majors and he is far from struggling. At this point, barring some horrible stretch of him struggling, it would be ignorant to send him back to the minors. Let him work out his problems where he is at.

 

The majors typically aren't the place for a player with this many flaws and who clearly needs a lot of work to be this early. He needs to be starting, and it doesn't behoove the Cubs to pencil him as a starting OF next season. I don't how you can look at his numbers and think he's doing fine. Yes, the home runs are fun, but he's hitting at a clearly unrealistic rate, and they've become almost the only thing that he is able to hit, and that's likely largely due to him not being exposed because of his limited playing time since he added muscle to drive the ball better with. I'm not saying send him back the minors now, because I have the feeling Fukudome will be moved and he'll then be able to get plenty of starts, but if the Cubs hope to see him take the steps necessary to being a full time starting OF then it's the smart choice to have him starting in the minors next season. He still has a ton of work before they can or should just hand him a starting job after this season.

[Wrigley Rat]

Here are a few thoughts on Colvin:

(1) He's shown power, intelligence & speed on the basepaths, and decent average.

(2) He's played CF and RF without being a defensive liability.

(3) He's in his first year in the major leagues after skipping AAA.

(4) He was a first round draft pick.

(5) He was hurt (wrist I think) last year which explains some lower numbers in the minors.

(6) He's a left-handed, power bat which our team has needed.

(7) He makes the major league minimum salary and has six years before free agency.

(8) He seems to be liked in the clubhouse and by the fans (can't say that for all the Cubs).

(9) The entire team has recently sucked, so his recent struggles are in line with what most of his teammates are doing as well.

(10) Low walk rates in the minors don't always translate to the majors - his teams often counted on him to drive in runs, not get on base.

 

I think those reasons are good enough to say, "I'd like to see what he can do. Maybe he can be a starter in this league." I like Brett Jackson too, and the Cubs will find a way to fit him into the lineup when he's ready to play in the big leagues. Marlon Byrd is very tradeable.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's kind of amusing to think of how often we've seen people here (rightly) railing on the Cubs over the years for many of their failings when it comes to developing players...and now this.

[MSG T]

Looking at what Colvin has done, I'd be comfortable in predicting that if he were given a starting OF job, by the end of the season he and Castro will have nearly identical OPS'. And it's not because Castro will increase his by .200-,250 points.

 

How many people will then be claiming Colvin is a bust?

 

He needs some serious work on the holes in his approach at the plate, until then he won't be anything more than a good 4th OF. And yes, I do think he has a decent chance of being a good, productive starting OF for the Cubs. But he isn't there yet.

[BigSlick]

Not to the Reds though please.

I'd love it for the Reds to shut the Cardinals out of the playoffs, hooray collusion

[CUB51679667546]

There's no games to save this year. Trade him while he's high.

[UMFan83]

Not to the Reds though please.

I'd love it for the Reds to shut the Cardinals out of the playoffs, hooray collusion

 

That's fine, I just don't want Marmol shutting the door on the Cubs up to 18 times a year for the next several years.

[chasinf5s]

This would become a total disaster for the Cubs. Remember 2008 when they had a closer and then they decided to let the decent closer go for a pitcher who preferred to throw BP. Good relief pitchers are a extremely hot commodity, you dont trade them for nothing and esp to a team in the same division

[dew1679666265]

This would become a total disaster for the Cubs. Remember 2008 when they had a closer and then they decided to let the decent closer go for a pitcher who preferred to throw BP. Good relief pitchers are a extremely hot commodity, you dont trade them for nothing and esp to a team in the same division

 

Much as I love Kerry Wood, check out these stats:

 

2009 Wood: 4.11 xFIP, 63:28 K:BB, 10.31 K/9, 1.15 HR/9

2009 Gregg: 4.16 xFIP, 71:30 K:BB, 9.31 K/9, 1.70 HR/9

 

Gregg was not ideal but, outside of HR/9, the two were pretty similar. However, I do agree that we should only trade Marmol if a really good deal comes along. It is hard to find consistently dominant late inning relievers, but they just don't pitch enough to turn down a lucrative deal for them. Heisey could become a pretty good player, but he's not a lucrative deal.