Starting a Fire Sale

[Monco]

Why not lower the budget? Unload some players for prospects and rebuild. Freeing up money every year to sign a free agent or two is basically a band-aid" approach.

[questionmarkgrace]

I have no idea why the moron GM hasn't already begun to trade the veteran players.

 

Hendry's always been slow to trade away players. Even guys like Sosa and Bradley who it was obvious were going to be traded took the better part of the offseason each time.

 

Between his patience and some of the big contracts he'll be trying to move, I wouldn't expect that much movement before the deadline.

 

Basically this is why he needs to be fired before any rebuilding does occur.

[risico]

I don't think Marmol is a player you keep when he has a season like this.

 

He's setting records this season and, while he has good stuff, I don't know if that K rate is going to be sustainable in the future. Meanwhile, his BB rate is holding steady from previous seasons. Free passes have always been his biggest problem.

 

Plus, closers are always overvalued at the trade deadline. Marmol might be the most valuable guy the Cubs can trade and he's probably the only one that will command a decent return.

 

Guys like Byrd and Silva should be dealt but I doubt Hendry does it. He's needs to keep some of his successful acquisitions around.

[Guest]

It all depends on how deeply you want to blow up the team and whether you want to even try to compete in 2011. I'm for trading Marmol (assuming a good enough return) and really pointing towards 2012 as our big year.

[dew1679666265]

I have no idea why the moron GM hasn't already begun to trade the veteran players.

 

Hendry's always been slow to trade away players. Even guys like Sosa and Bradley who it was obvious were going to be traded took the better part of the offseason each time.

 

Between his patience and some of the big contracts he'll be trying to move, I wouldn't expect that much movement before the deadline.

 

Basically this is why he needs to be fired before any rebuilding does occur.

 

I don't understand what you mean. Why does his speed at trading players matter in whether we rebuild successfully or not? He'll deal the guys he gets good offers on by the deadline anyway.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I don't think Marmol is a player you keep when he has a season like this.

 

He's setting records this season and, while he has good stuff, I don't know if that K rate is going to be sustainable in the future. Meanwhile, his BB rate is holding steady from previous seasons. Free passes have always been his biggest problem.

 

Plus, closers are always overvalued at the trade deadline. Marmol might be the most valuable guy the Cubs can trade and he's probably the only one that will command a decent return.

 

Guys like Byrd and Silva should be dealt but I doubt Hendry does it. He's needs to keep some of his successful acquisitions around.

 

I don't know that I would trade Marmol, but I would certainly listen to offers. If someone wants to overpay for a "proven closer", I'd let him go for sure though.

[UK1679666180]

It all depends on how deeply you want to blow up the team and whether you want to even try to compete in 2011. I'm for trading Marmol (assuming a good enough return) and really pointing towards 2012 as our big year.

 

 

If they trade Marmol, that basically locks up Cashner as the future closer.

[risico]

I don't think that's the case at all and I think Cashner may be more suited to starting than to closing.

 

Cashner has great stuff but in the majors he's struggled to miss bats. He's inducing a lot of ground balls and walking very few hitters, both good signs, but he's not posting huge K numbers that you would expect from a guy with his stuff.

 

I think it's a matter of learning how to use his stuff to get hitters to swing at bad pitches. Right now hitters aren't swinging at pitches Cashner throws outside of the strike zone (29.1% O-swing rate is about the league average). I think Cashner would benefit a bit from going back to the minors and pitching regularly in a starter's role. He's still young and has a few things to figure out.

[erik316wttn]

What kind of return do you think Silva could bring at this point? Would there be a contender desperate enough to take most of that contract off of our hands even if we don't get much for talent back in return?

[CubColtPacer]

What kind of return do you think Silva could bring at this point? Would there be a contender desperate enough to take most of that contract off of our hands even if we don't get much for talent back in return?

 

I'm really not sure what Silva is worth. IMO, teams don't usually like to take risky players who have multiple years left on their contracts in a trade.

 

At the same time, the Cubs shouldn't pay much of Silva's contract at the deadline. There's no reason for it. The Cubs are going to have to pay Silva 8 million between 2011 and 2012 (6 million for 2011 plus 2 million buyout in 2012). He's becoming likely to post an ERA under 4 for 2010. The Cubs will very likely be able to unload his contract in the offseason and pay no more than 2 million. And if he continues to pitch close to as well as he has for the rest of the year the Cubs could potentially do even better.

[shnsajax]

I don't think that's the case at all and I think Cashner may be more suited to starting than to closing.

 

Cashner has great stuff but in the majors he's struggled to miss bats. He's inducing a lot of ground balls and walking very few hitters, both good signs, but he's not posting huge K numbers that you would expect from a guy with his stuff.

 

I think it's a matter of learning how to use his stuff to get hitters to swing at bad pitches. Right now hitters aren't swinging at pitches Cashner throws outside of the strike zone (29.1% O-swing rate is about the league average). I think Cashner would benefit a bit from going back to the minors and pitching regularly in a starter's role. He's still young and has a few things to figure out.

 

He's not talking about stuff, he's talking about the thought process the Cubs are using.

[dew1679666265]

What kind of return do you think Silva could bring at this point? Would there be a contender desperate enough to take most of that contract off of our hands even if we don't get much for talent back in return?

 

I'm really not sure what Silva is worth. IMO, teams don't usually like to take risky players who have multiple years left on their contracts in a trade.

 

At the same time, the Cubs shouldn't pay much of Silva's contract at the deadline. There's no reason for it. The Cubs are going to have to pay Silva 8 million between 2011 and 2012 (6 million for 2011 plus 2 million buyout in 2012). He's becoming likely to post an ERA under 4 for 2010. The Cubs will very likely be able to unload his contract in the offseason and pay no more than 2 million. And if he continues to pitch close to as well as he has for the rest of the year the Cubs could potentially do even better.

 

As you said, I'm not sure we'd get enough to make it worth trading him at the deadline unless somebody was desperate. If a pitcher gets hurt or a team decides it really needs a starter at the deadline, Silva's value could skyrocket with the success he's had this year. Teams may be a bit more deliberate in the offseason and consider his previous struggles more, though he'll have less money owed him by then as well.

[davell]

I think we'll need an entire season of Silva continuing what he's done to date, for us to get out from underneath his contract. If we trade him after the season is over, we're only on the hook for 6 mill next year and a 2 mill buyout after that. If he keeps this up, he'll definitely be tradeable and we may actually see some sort of decent return as well.

[bukie]

I'd like to see if the Cubs could interest Tampa in one of their pitchers (Lilly/Demp/Silva) + some cash in exchange for whichever of Rodriguez/Brignac they'd consider the most extraneous.

[risico]

I think the idea of trading Silva should be simple: if you can get something of value for him without eating much of his remaining contract, you should deal him. If teams ask you to pay for some of that remaining salary, the Cubs are probably better off just keeping him around and allowing him to eat innings for them.

 

But as I've said, I doubt Hendry trades this guy away because he's one of Hendry's few good acquisitions.

[UK1679666180]

I'd like to see if the Cubs could interest Tampa in one of their pitchers (Lilly/Demp/Silva) + some cash in exchange for whichever of Rodriguez/Brignac they'd consider the most extraneous.

 

I think TB would be looking for another bat (someone like Dunn) rather than another starter despite the struggles of Davis recently. If anything, they'd call up Hellickson.

[Rob]

I think the idea of trading Silva should be simple: if you can get something of value for him without eating much of his remaining contract, you should deal him. If teams ask you to pay for some of that remaining salary, the Cubs are probably better off just keeping him around and allowing him to eat innings for them.

 

On the contrary, I'd love for us to eat his contract.

 

Realistically, this team probably wont compete next year. So any salary of Silva's (or any other player) that we pick up to facilitate a trade wont exactly keep us from adding those one or two missing pieces to put us in the playoffs. And it's not like any savings in the budget will go towards 2012's payroll.

 

Really, the best thing we can do is pick up as much of the contract as we can afford... that way we can get some very nice prospects.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the idea of trading Silva should be simple: if you can get something of value for him without eating much of his remaining contract, you should deal him. If teams ask you to pay for some of that remaining salary, the Cubs are probably better off just keeping him around and allowing him to eat innings for them.

 

On the contrary, I'd love for us to eat his contract.

 

Realistically, this team probably wont compete next year. So any salary of Silva's (or any other player) that we pick up to facilitate a trade wont exactly keep us from adding those one or two missing pieces to put us in the playoffs. And it's not like any savings in the budget will go towards 2012's payroll.

 

Really, the best thing we can do is pick up as much of the contract as we can afford... that way we can get some very nice prospects.

 

Absolutely. The money is spent and not likely to go to any better cause, might as well use it to acquire talent.

[UK1679666180]

I think the idea of trading Silva should be simple: if you can get something of value for him without eating much of his remaining contract, you should deal him. If teams ask you to pay for some of that remaining salary, the Cubs are probably better off just keeping him around and allowing him to eat innings for them.

 

On the contrary, I'd love for us to eat his contract.

 

Realistically, this team probably wont compete next year. So any salary of Silva's (or any other player) that we pick up to facilitate a trade wont exactly keep us from adding those one or two missing pieces to put us in the playoffs. And it's not like any savings in the budget will go towards 2012's payroll.

 

Really, the best thing we can do is pick up as much of the contract as we can afford... that way we can get some very nice prospects.

 

Absolutely. The money is spent and not likely to go to any better cause, might as well use it to acquire talent.

 

You have to factor that as well with Fukudome and espec. Lilly with some of the lesser payroll teams still in contention.

[Old Style]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to get just hot enough over the next week or two to keep us from dumping any salaries only to tank again right after the deadline.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to get just hot enough over the next week or two to keep us from dumping any salaries only to tank again right after the deadline.

 

Exactly which salaries are you expecting to be "dumped" besides possible Fukudome's? The only other two significant names making significant money that have cropped up in trade talk are Lilly and Lee, and they're gone after this year anyway. Sure, they could move Byrd, too, but it's hardly like he has a contract that's hindering the team.

Edited July 19, 2010 by Sammy Sofa

[dew1679666265]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to get just hot enough over the next week or two to keep us from dumping any salaries only to tank again right after the deadline.

 

Exactly which salaries are you expecting to be "dumped" besides possible Fukudome's? The only other two significant names making significant money that have cropped up in trade talk are Lilly and Lee, and they're gone after this year anywhere. Sure, they could move Byrd, too, but it's hardly like he has a contract that's hindering the team.

 

I still think Silva might be a possibility to move, but that'd be about it as far as moving salaries. I think passing on trading Lilly because we might have an outside shot would be a mistake too, I think.

[Sammy Sofa]

I have a bad feeling that this team is going to get just hot enough over the next week or two to keep us from dumping any salaries only to tank again right after the deadline.

 

Exactly which salaries are you expecting to be "dumped" besides possible Fukudome's? The only other two significant names making significant money that have cropped up in trade talk are Lilly and Lee, and they're gone after this year anywhere. Sure, they could move Byrd, too, but it's hardly like he has a contract that's hindering the team.

 

I still think Silva might be a possibility to move, but that'd be about it as far as moving salaries. I think passing on trading Lilly because we might have an outside shot would be a mistake too, I think.

 

Agreed. Lilly should be in demand, and they'd be fools to pass that up, especially since they can ultimately plug Zambrano back into the starting rotation to replace him.

[Old Style]

I guess I'm dreaming, but I was holding out a slim bit of hope that the Yankees/Mets/Red Sox might get desperate enough to trade for Soriano at the deadline. Those teams have the money to blow and Sori's had a very good year. And I understand that Lee and Lilly are in the last year of their respective contracts. With them it would be more passing up a chance to pick up some prospects than a real salary dump.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is it really necessary for the Cubs to be desperately dumping salary? If they move Fukduome and don't have to pay all of his salary to do so, and then with Lee and Lilly coming off the books that's a lot of money they're clearing. Sure, Soriano's got an ugly contract, but it's not like it's something that is crippling the team, nor is there even a very good FA market coming up that the Cubs need a lot of money to spend on. Besides, the teams that can or will choose to afford to take on Soriano's contract without the Cubs picking much or any of it typically aren't teams that make "desperate" moves like that.