Theriot vs Fontenot

[Tim]

I brought this up on the b-squared show today, but I think it deserves some discussion here, too.

 

I strongly believe we should be employing a strict platoon of the cajun connection. Even ignoring Theriot's horrendous production so far this month (.555 OPS), each of the two players have strong platoon splits across their careers.

 

Theriot career vs RHP/LHP: .698/.789

Font career vs RHP/LHP: .780/.639

 

To me, this is really a no-brainer kind of a decision while they're both on the team. My ideal choice would be to trade Theriot if we can get something of value for him as I think we're likely to nontender him this offseason.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've been pushing for that platoon for a couple years now.

[SpongeWorthy]

If you're going with a strict platoon shouldn't it be Baker/Fontenot?

[soapy]

It would seem to make the most sense, but the Cubs seem absolutely convinced that Theriot is an every day player. They've commented about him wearing down over the season, but they continue to run him out there on an almost daily basis. That made a little more sense at SS where he was basically the only option, but giving Fontenot starts against many RHP would be the best way to get the most out of each player. If you could get that platoon combo to produce a .780 OPS, you'd be in pretty decent shape.

[Guest]

It would seem to make the most sense, but the Cubs seem absolutely convinced that Theriot is an every day player. They've commented about him wearing down over the season, but they continue to run him out there on an almost daily basis. That made a little more sense at SS where he was basically the only option, but giving Fontenot starts against many RHP would be the best way to get the most out of each player. If you could get that platoon combo to produce a .780 OPS, you'd be in pretty decent shape.

If you did it as a strict platoon, then you'd be able to expect a .780+ OPS just based off career averages.

[CubColtPacer]

It would seem to make the most sense, but the Cubs seem absolutely convinced that Theriot is an every day player. They've commented about him wearing down over the season, but they continue to run him out there on an almost daily basis. That made a little more sense at SS where he was basically the only option, but giving Fontenot starts against many RHP would be the best way to get the most out of each player. If you could get that platoon combo to produce a .780 OPS, you'd be in pretty decent shape.

If you did it as a strict platoon, then you'd be able to expect a .780+ OPS just based off career averages.

 

You can never do that strict of a platoon though. Fontenot would see a few at-bats against left-handers in non crucial situations and Theriot would probably see more at-bats than that against right-handed relievers. If both performed up to their averages you'd probably see a .765 OPS or so between them.

 

As I said in the other thread though, I'd be in favor of it. It looks like they've turned Fontenot into another version of Theriot. Fontenot talked earlier in the season about how they were changing his swing and it looks like they've sapped most of the power out of him.

 

He has only 1 home run and that one was the grand slam in Cincinnati where he snuck it down the line where it is only 325 feet. His fly ball percentage is the lowest amount of his career (27%). His line drive percentage is way up so far (28.1%). He's not walking very much but there's a huge change in his strikeout numbers so far. Over 20% the previous 2 years and down to only 9.3% this year. He's swinging at the most pitches of his career but he's also had easily the best contact percentage of his career.

 

So Fontenot is swinging at an early pitch and hitting a lot of line drives without much power. He's not walking much but he's not striking out as much as Theriot has the last couple years either so his BABIP is not bad at all (actually unlucky when compared to his LD percentage).

 

I question to make too much out of 97 AB's but based on both the statistical and quotes from Fontenot himself it looks like they are making him a different type of hitter.

 

I definitely support platooning them though. Theriot's K/BB percentage is getting uglier and uglier and he doesn't have the power available to provide much upside in that department. Fontenot is likely the better option most of the time and even if they are turning him into Theriot it's been an improved version so far with the potential for a little power.

[rawaction]

Preaching to the choir, Tim. I'd also like to see Castro permanently cemented in the 2-hole for a while. With Fontenot in there, wouldn't be a huge problem (but you get Geo hitting 8th again). Theriot could still hit leadoff vs. LHPs since Fukudome won't be playing (which he should).

[Guest]

If you're going with a strict platoon shouldn't it be Baker/Fontenot?

Defense + offense, I'm not sure Baker is better than Theriot, but that actually might be the case strictly against lefties. Which, again, means we should be trading Theriot.

[Guest]

It would seem to make the most sense, but the Cubs seem absolutely convinced that Theriot is an every day player. They've commented about him wearing down over the season, but they continue to run him out there on an almost daily basis. That made a little more sense at SS where he was basically the only option, but giving Fontenot starts against many RHP would be the best way to get the most out of each player. If you could get that platoon combo to produce a .780 OPS, you'd be in pretty decent shape.

If you did it as a strict platoon, then you'd be able to expect a .780+ OPS just based off career averages.

 

You can never do that strict of a platoon though. Fontenot would see a few at-bats against left-handers in non crucial situations and Theriot would probably see more at-bats than that against right-handed relievers. If both performed up to their averages you'd probably see a .765 OPS or so between them.

 

As I said in the other thread though, I'd be in favor of it. It looks like they've turned Fontenot into another version of Theriot. Fontenot talked earlier in the season about how they were changing his swing and it looks like they've sapped most of the power out of him.

 

He has only 1 home run and that one was the grand slam in Cincinnati where he snuck it down the line where it is only 325 feet. His fly ball percentage is the lowest amount of his career (27%). His line drive percentage is way up so far (28.1%). He's not walking very much but there's a huge change in his strikeout numbers so far. Over 20% the previous 2 years and down to only 9.3% this year. He's swinging at the most pitches of his career but he's also had easily the best contact percentage of his career.

 

So Fontenot is swinging at an early pitch and hitting a lot of line drives without much power. He's not walking much but he's not striking out as much as Theriot has the last couple years either so his BABIP is not bad at all (actually unlucky when compared to his LD percentage).

 

I question to make too much out of 97 AB's but based on both the statistical and quotes from Fontenot himself it looks like they are making him a different type of hitter.

 

I definitely support platooning them though. Theriot's K/BB percentage is getting uglier and uglier and he doesn't have the power available to provide much upside in that department. Fontenot is likely the better option most of the time and even if they are turning him into Theriot it's been an improved version so far with the potential for a little power.

Fair point on an absolute platoon not being possible. Even a ~.760-.770 OPS would be a nice step up in production, though.

 

It is an interesting dynamic with Fontenot so far this year. They've definitely changed his swing, but I think it's too early to tell what the long-term impacts are going to be.

[UMFan83]

If you're going with a strict platoon shouldn't it be Baker/Fontenot?

 

Considering that Baker has a career .896 OPS against lefties, yes.

[Guest]

Preaching to the choir, Tim. I'd also like to see Castro permanently cemented in the 2-hole for a while. With Fontenot in there, wouldn't be a huge problem (but you get Geo hitting 8th again). Theriot could still hit leadoff vs. LHPs since Fukudome won't be playing (which he should).

Normally, I'd say we shouldn't put that kind of pressure on a 20 year old player. But I'm not sure Castro is negatively impacted by that sort of thing.

 

I also think that having Geo in the #8 spot isn't the worst thing in the world. For whatever reason, he just isn't showing the same power yet that he had a couple years ago. If his OBP is going to be the big asset to his offensive game, being in the #8 spot isn't the worst place in the world for him.

[Sammy Sofa]

If you're going with a strict platoon shouldn't it be Baker/Fontenot?

 

Considering that Baker has a career .896 OPS against lefties, yes.

 

Yeah, Fontenot/Baker is definitely a preferable alternative.

[KaiserCesar]

Regarding Fontenot, the data on fangraphs suggests Fontenot has completely changed his style to a shorter swing to make more contact and avoid strikeouts.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3912&position=2B

 

First off, he's got a career ISO of .149 and is currently got that number at .093 for the season. This isn't huge news for a part-time player 1/4 of the way through the season, but all the other numbers point to a similar conclusion. He's got a career 19.5% K rate, 9.3% this year. In general he's hitting a lot more linedrives and less flyballs, increasing his BABIP in the process, but limiting his HR potential. When you look at his swing data, he is actually swinging more overall (51.2% of pitches vs. career 44.2%) which spans across both balls in and out of the zone. The real difference though is that he is making contact with 95.2% of balls that he swings at in the zone and 83.1% of them outside the zone.

 

While I can't know for sure, my guess would be that Rudy has worked with him to change his approach and we are seeing a bit of a different player in the past who will put more balls in play and flyout a lot less. The one downside is that he's not walking as much as in the past, but his OBP could even out if his batting average increases.

[biittner77]

If you're going with a strict platoon shouldn't it be Baker/Fontenot?

 

Considering that Baker has a career .896 OPS against lefties, yes.

 

Yeah, Fontenot/Baker is definitely a preferable alternative.

 

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

As a pre emptive strike, I don't really care about things like "Lead off hitter" but the Cubs and Piniella do. Which is why I can't see them trading Theriot even though it would be a good idea -providing they could get value for him.

[Guest]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

Pretty much anyone would work. When they face a LHP there isn't a bad hitter in the lineup.

[Sammy Sofa]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

What's wrong with Castro leading off against lefties? In his limited time up he's posting significantly better OBP against LH pitchers.

 

LH starters: .316 .480 .474 .954 (6 games)

 

RH starters: .366 .366 .512 .878 (10 games)

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters?

Who cares?

[biittner77]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

What's wrong with Castro leading off against lefties? In his limited time up he's posting significantly better OBP against LH pitchers.

 

LH starters: .316 .480 .474 .954 (6 games)

 

RH starters: .366 .366 .512 .878 (10 games)

 

It may be asking too much of a first year player. However, since it's the lesser half of the platoon (so to speak) I guess it would be ok.

[jersey cubs fan]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

What's wrong with Castro leading off against lefties? In his limited time up he's posting significantly better OBP against LH pitchers.

 

LH starters: .316 .480 .474 .954 (6 games)

 

RH starters: .366 .366 .512 .878 (10 games)

 

It may be asking too much of a first year player. However, since it's the lesser half of the platoon (so to speak) I guess it would be ok.

 

How is it too much? It's not like that guy has extra duties.

[Keener98]

Castro has handled hitting in the 2 spot, I dont see why it'd make a difference if he were to lead off some too. There really isn't much difference

[Sammy Sofa]

Castro has handled hitting in the 2 spot, I dont see why it'd make a difference if he were to lead off some too. There really isn't much difference

 

Exactly.

[KingCubsFan]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters? Given the available options, I see them going with Castro and I'm not sure if I like that.

 

What's wrong with Castro leading off against lefties? In his limited time up he's posting significantly better OBP against LH pitchers.

 

LH starters: .316 .480 .474 .954 (6 games)

 

RH starters: .366 .366 .512 .878 (10 games)

 

It may be asking too much of a first year player. However, since it's the lesser half of the platoon (so to speak) I guess it would be ok.

 

How is it too much? It's not like that guy has extra duties.

Right or wrong, players, managers and the media put a lot of emphasis on the leadoff spot, and you don't want to put any added pressure on Castro to perform like a "true" leadoff hitter. I still think the 8th spot is the best place for him, simply because it should help his pitch recognition.

[dew1679666265]

The only problem becomes who leads off against LH starters?

Who cares?

 

As a pre emptive strike, I don't really care about things like "Lead off hitter" but the Cubs and Piniella do.

 

Right or wrong, their opinion matters.

[biittner77]

How is it too much? It's not like that guy has extra duties.

 

You don't think there's more pressure on a leadoff hitter than a guy batting 7th or 8th? It may be too much pressure if it causes him to start trying to do too much or to start pressing.

 

There's also a chance he'll handle that pressure. He doesn't seem to lack confidence or be intimidated by new situations.

[Sammy Sofa]

Personally, I think the 8th spot in the lineup is perhaps the worst place you can put Castro.