Time to sell high on Colvin?

[jersey cubs fan]

I honestly don't know if Soriano would get 10M per if he was a free agent after the 2009 season. If he was a FA today, he probably would after a month in the 1000 OPS neighborhood. But I'm pretty sure nobody would give him a 4-year deal either way.

 

I think 2-3 years would give him more than $10m per, while the 4th year would bring it down considerably. Then again, if he craps the bed again, maybe not.

[Backtobanks]

I think some of you haven't been watching the economics of the game lately. As rawaction pointed out, there's a lot of aging sluggers who aren't getting the big money or the multiple years. Also, look at the big money/long term contracts that teams are desperately trying to dump. The days of the $10+ million per year contract for 3+ years are reserved for the superstars or solid rotation starters are gone for now. It became obvious when the Yankees started cutting back (Damon, Matsui, etc.). Everyone on this board knew Soriano's contract was terrible the day he signed it.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think a lot of this had to do with a scary recession. From winter 2008 through winter 2009 people were scared to death. But those fears have eased. Damon is older than Soriano, and not as good. Dye sucks. Beltre can't hit worth a lick. Matsui isn't as good. Vladdy wasn't as good as Soriano for a the past couple years and coming off a really bad season.

 

Being a free agent last year was not great. Especially if you were struggling. The recession is over and Soriano isn't struggling, so his chances are much better.

[Rob]

If we wanted to sell him, we'd probably have to bring the money owed down to the $30 mil range for the 4 years left on the contract, give or take a couple mil.

[dew1679666265]

I think teams are wising up about long-term, double digit million dollar deals to older players. The Ibanez deal has been biting the Phillies in the arse since about August of last year. Jermaine Dye did not get signed. Guys like Damon, Vlad, Matsui, Tejada, and Beltre only were able to get 1 year deals despite most coming off of strong 2009 seasons. Only Beltre was able to get more than 8Mil.

 

Chone Figgins (32) got 4/36 from the Mariners.

Tim Hudson (34) got 3/28 from the Braves.

Randy Wolf (33) got 3/29 from the Brewers.

Brian Roberts (32) got 4/40 from the Orioles.

John Lackey (31) got 5/82 from the Red Sox.

 

Also, Matt Holliday at 30 got a 7-year deal. And that's just deals starting in 2010, not counting players signed before the 2009 season. If Soriano were a free agent available to be signed in the offseason, he wouldn't get more than 4/40 and may not get four years. However, if he's still OPSing .900+ by the deadline and a team feels that it really needs a good bat, one may bite on Soriano for that price.

[rawaction]

I think teams are wising up about long-term, double digit million dollar deals to older players. The Ibanez deal has been biting the Phillies in the arse since about August of last year. Jermaine Dye did not get signed. Guys like Damon, Vlad, Matsui, Tejada, and Beltre only were able to get 1 year deals despite most coming off of strong 2009 seasons. Only Beltre was able to get more than 8Mil.

 

Chone Figgins (32) got 4/36 from the Mariners.

Tim Hudson (34) got 3/28 from the Braves.

Randy Wolf (33) got 3/29 from the Brewers.

Brian Roberts (32) got 4/40 from the Orioles.

John Lackey (31) got 5/82 from the Red Sox.

 

Also, Matt Holliday at 30 got a 7-year deal. And that's just deals starting in 2010, not counting players signed before the 2009 season. If Soriano were a free agent available to be signed in the offseason, he wouldn't get more than 4/40 and may not get four years. However, if he's still OPSing .900+ by the deadline and a team feels that it really needs a good bat, one may bite on Soriano for that price.

 

I didn't count Figgins or Roberts or any of the pitchers because I was responding to the claim that several teams would pay 4/40 to an "AGING POWER HITTER". Nobody you listed qualifies except for Matt Holliday if you stretch, considering he's 4 years younger than Soriano, isn't coming off an injury plagued 700 OPS season.

 

And all of those deals you named are probably all regretted by the teams that signed those deals. Only Hudson is living up to his contract right now. They serve as more evidence that you don't give big money and big years to players well outside of their prime years.

[rawaction]

I think a lot of this had to do with a scary recession. From winter 2008 through winter 2009 people were scared to death. But those fears have eased. Damon is older than Soriano, and not as good. Dye sucks. Beltre can't hit worth a lick. Matsui isn't as good. Vladdy wasn't as good as Soriano for a the past couple years and coming off a really bad season.

 

Being a free agent last year was not great. Especially if you were struggling. The recession is over and Soriano isn't struggling, so his chances are much better.

 

Still the point remains. Even if Soriano is better, those guys didn't get close to 4/40 so it's hard to imagine Soriano would at 34. And it's not like he is that far removed from his struggling. And it's not like he doesn't have a ton of red flags suggesting he will struggle again and probably for the better part of the next 4 years.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think a lot of this had to do with a scary recession. From winter 2008 through winter 2009 people were scared to death. But those fears have eased. Damon is older than Soriano, and not as good. Dye sucks. Beltre can't hit worth a lick. Matsui isn't as good. Vladdy wasn't as good as Soriano for a the past couple years and coming off a really bad season.

 

Being a free agent last year was not great. Especially if you were struggling. The recession is over and Soriano isn't struggling, so his chances are much better.

 

Still the point remains. Even if Soriano is better, those guys didn't get close to 4/40 so it's hard to imagine Soriano would at 34. And it's not like he is that far removed from his struggling. And it's not like he doesn't have a ton of red flags suggesting he will struggle again and probably for the better part of the next 4 years.

 

But those guys aren't particularly good comparisons, so the point is flawed, at least. Jermaine Dye not getting a deal is meaningless when talking about what Soriano could conceivably get now or in the near future. Those guys didn't get it because A) most of them were worse, B) the economy was in doubt, and C) they were coming off bad years. Had Soriano been on the market then he wouldn't have gotten much. But it's 2010 now, the economy is better, Soriano has reestablished himself as a pretty good player (better than those guys). 4/40 is hardly a stretch.

 

I wouldn't give it to him, but unless he takes a dramatic turn for the worse this season, somebody would.

[dew1679666265]

I didn't count Figgins or Roberts or any of the pitchers because I was responding to the claim that several teams would pay 4/40 to an "AGING POWER HITTER". Nobody you listed qualifies except for Matt Holliday if you stretch, considering he's 4 years younger than Soriano, isn't coming off an injury plagued 700 OPS season.

 

You listed Johnny Damon and he's not exactly a power hitter. Your words were "older player" and that's what I responded to. Do you think an aging power hitter is less likely to get a big deal than an aging basestealer?

 

And all of those deals you named are probably all regretted by the teams that signed those deals. Only Hudson is living up to his contract right now. They serve as more evidence that you don't give big money and big years to players well outside of their prime years.

 

Bad signings are always regretted by the team signing the player. That doesn't mean other bad deals won't be signed. I'm not saying that giving Soriano 4/40 right now would be a good move, just that it's completely realistic that somebody would do it.

[rawaction]

I think a lot of this had to do with a scary recession. From winter 2008 through winter 2009 people were scared to death. But those fears have eased. Damon is older than Soriano, and not as good. Dye sucks. Beltre can't hit worth a lick. Matsui isn't as good. Vladdy wasn't as good as Soriano for a the past couple years and coming off a really bad season.

 

Being a free agent last year was not great. Especially if you were struggling. The recession is over and Soriano isn't struggling, so his chances are much better.

 

Still the point remains. Even if Soriano is better, those guys didn't get close to 4/40 so it's hard to imagine Soriano would at 34. And it's not like he is that far removed from his struggling. And it's not like he doesn't have a ton of red flags suggesting he will struggle again and probably for the better part of the next 4 years.

 

But those guys aren't particularly good comparisons, so the point is flawed, at least. Jermaine Dye not getting a deal is meaningless when talking about what Soriano could conceivably get now or in the near future. Those guys didn't get it because A) most of them were worse, B) the economy was in doubt, and C) they were coming off bad years. Had Soriano been on the market then he wouldn't have gotten much. But it's 2010 now, the economy is better, Soriano has reestablished himself as a pretty good player (better than those guys). 4/40 is hardly a stretch.

 

I wouldn't give it to him, but unless he takes a dramatic turn for the worse this season, somebody would.

 

Again, my hangup is more on that 4th year. I think it's more of a stretch than you think that someone (else) pays him double digit million at 38.

[SouthSideRyan]

I think a lot of this had to do with a scary recession. From winter 2008 through winter 2009 people were scared to death. But those fears have eased. Damon is older than Soriano, and not as good. Dye sucks. Beltre can't hit worth a lick. Matsui isn't as good. Vladdy wasn't as good as Soriano for a the past couple years and coming off a really bad season.

 

Being a free agent last year was not great. Especially if you were struggling. The recession is over and Soriano isn't struggling, so his chances are much better.

 

Still the point remains. Even if Soriano is better, those guys didn't get close to 4/40 so it's hard to imagine Soriano would at 34. And it's not like he is that far removed from his struggling. And it's not like he doesn't have a ton of red flags suggesting he will struggle again and probably for the better part of the next 4 years.

 

But those guys aren't particularly good comparisons, so the point is flawed, at least. Jermaine Dye not getting a deal is meaningless when talking about what Soriano could conceivably get now or in the near future. Those guys didn't get it because A) most of them were worse, B) the economy was in doubt, and C) they were coming off bad years. Had Soriano been on the market then he wouldn't have gotten much. But it's 2010 now, the economy is better, Soriano has reestablished himself as a pretty good player (better than those guys). 4/40 is hardly a stretch.

 

I wouldn't give it to him, but unless he takes a dramatic turn for the worse this season, somebody would.

 

Again, my hangup is more on that 4th year. I think it's more of a stretch than you think that someone (else) pays him double digit million at 38.

 

Do you think somebody would pay him 3/39?

[rawaction]

I didn't count Figgins or Roberts or any of the pitchers because I was responding to the claim that several teams would pay 4/40 to an "AGING POWER HITTER". Nobody you listed qualifies except for Matt Holliday if you stretch, considering he's 4 years younger than Soriano, isn't coming off an injury plagued 700 OPS season.

 

You listed Johnny Damon and he's not exactly a power hitter. Your words were "older player" and that's what I responded to. Do you think an aging power hitter is less likely to get a big deal than an aging basestealer?

 

And all of those deals you named are probably all regretted by the teams that signed those deals. Only Hudson is living up to his contract right now. They serve as more evidence that you don't give big money and big years to players well outside of their prime years.

 

Bad signings are always regretted by the team signing the player. That doesn't mean other bad deals won't be signed. I'm not saying that giving Soriano 4/40 right now would be a good move, just that it's completely realistic that somebody would do it.

 

I think those bad signings are more evidence that you don't give a deal like 4/40 to somebody like Soriano, Wolf, Lackey, etc who have had injury issues as they've aged. Those bad signings serve as another exhibit of why nobody wants to be tied that long to Soriano.

 

Damon averaged nearly 20 HRs and a .175 ISOP as a Yankee. Not huge power, but at this point that's his main asset.

[rawaction]

 

Again, my hangup is more on that 4th year. I think it's more of a stretch than you think that someone (else) pays him double digit million at 38.

 

Do you think somebody would pay him 3/39?

 

Probably not. My guess is between 3/27 and 3/35 if someone really got desperate.

[dew1679666265]

I think those bad signings are more evidence that you don't give a deal like 4/40 to somebody like Soriano, Wolf, Lackey, etc who have had injury issues as they've aged. Those bad signings serve as another exhibit of why nobody wants to be tied that long to Soriano.

 

Again, I don't disagree that you shouldn't sign those players to deals, but teams do it all the time. Just because it's not smart doesn't mean a team won't give Soriano 4/40 – especially at the trading deadline if he's OPSing .900+.

 

Damon averaged nearly 20 HRs and a .175 ISOP as a Yankee. Not huge power, but at this point that's his main asset.

 

Didn't realize his power had jumped that much in New York. I still don't think I'd call an outfielder who's career high in homers is 24 and has never slugged .500 a power hitter, though.

[cubfan]

 

Again, my hangup is more on that 4th year. I think it's more of a stretch than you think that someone (else) pays him double digit million at 38.

 

Do you think somebody would pay him 3/39?

 

Probably not. My guess is between 3/27 and 3/35 if someone really got desperate.

 

Do you not think Soriano would be worth 1/5 at 38 years old? That would be the difference if he signed for 3/35 instead of 4/40.