Time to sell high on Colvin?

[Backtobanks]

Regardless, I think Kosuke should be the guy to sell. next year, Lee and Lilly are gone, and Id be surprised to see Aramis not opt out of his contract at the end of the year. I dont know the exact numbers, but thats a lot of money off the books, and if we could add a sold chunk of Kosukes contract to that, this organization could be in business. The key is being patient until after 2011 and go after Prince or Adrian and not let Hendry, if hes still around let all that money burn a hole in his pocket. Maybe see if we could get Jorge Cantu for a reasonable price. However, if we really want Adrian, it will lilely require a trade because someones going to empty out their farm system for him in either June or next winter and they'll likely sign him to a massive contract.

 

In 2011, we could have a solid mix of young players like Castro, Colvin, and Soto and vetrans Byrd and Soriano. Theriot will likely be around for a bit as well unless something better falls into our lap. Hopefully Vitters and Brett jackson arent too far behind. As for the post 2011 pitching situation, I hope we hang on to Marmol and Marshall, and at least as few of Stevens, Parker, Gaub, etc. end up as serviceable middle relievers with Guzman making a come back. As for starting pitching, I dont know the exact length of Zs deal, but I think we have him for a while. 2012 will be Demps las year, and Randy Wells is around for a while, I dont know about Gorzo. Also, by then the Bradley/Silva moneys off the books, with Cashner and Jackson ready to jump into the rotation, maybe Diamond and Coleman depending on what the future holds for them. If we could aquire Adrian or Fielder to go along, we can open a brand new window in 2012 if were just patient and accepting with a mediocre at best 2011 team.

 

I'm not sure Ricketts is willing to wait for 2012, especially since your scenario is based on a bunch of prospects becoming solid ML starters. Counting on Colvin, Vitters, Jackson, Cashner, Diamond, Coleman, Stevens, Parker, Gaub, and a return of Guzman to be contributors in 2012 is really optimistic. Also, let's not forget the PR war going on in Chicago with a possible Stanley Cup, an improved Bear team, and possibly a Lebron James/Derrick Rose combo for the Bulls.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Regardless, I think Kosuke should be the guy to sell. next year, Lee and Lilly are gone, and Id be surprised to see Aramis not opt out of his contract at the end of the year. I dont know the exact numbers, but thats a lot of money off the books, and if we could add a sold chunk of Kosukes contract to that, this organization could be in business. The key is being patient until after 2011 and go after Prince or Adrian and not let Hendry, if hes still around let all that money burn a hole in his pocket. Maybe see if we could get Jorge Cantu for a reasonable price. However, if we really want Adrian, it will lilely require a trade because someones going to empty out their farm system for him in either June or next winter and they'll likely sign him to a massive contract.

 

In 2011, we could have a solid mix of young players like Castro, Colvin, and Soto and vetrans Byrd and Soriano. Theriot will likely be around for a bit as well unless something better falls into our lap. Hopefully Vitters and Brett jackson arent too far behind. As for the post 2011 pitching situation, I hope we hang on to Marmol and Marshall, and at least as few of Stevens, Parker, Gaub, etc. end up as serviceable middle relievers with Guzman making a come back. As for starting pitching, I dont know the exact length of Zs deal, but I think we have him for a while. 2012 will be Demps las year, and Randy Wells is around for a while, I dont know about Gorzo. Also, by then the Bradley/Silva moneys off the books, with Cashner and Jackson ready to jump into the rotation, maybe Diamond and Coleman depending on what the future holds for them. If we could aquire Adrian or Fielder to go along, we can open a brand new window in 2012 if were just patient and accepting with a mediocre at best 2011 team.

 

I'm not sure Ricketts is willing to wait for 2012, especially since your scenario is based on a bunch of prospects becoming solid ML starters. Counting on Colvin, Vitters, Jackson, Cashner, Diamond, Coleman, Stevens, Parker, Gaub, and a return of Guzman to be contributors in 2012 is really optimistic. Also, let's not forget the PR war going on in Chicago with a possible Stanley Cup, an improved Bear team, and possibly a Lebron James/Derrick Rose combo for the Bulls.

 

 

Judging by the 2011 FA class, I hope hes patient. The big names are Carl Crawford and Victor Martinez, and after them you have a bunch of old guys in Lance Berkman, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Miguel Tejada, Vlad, Papi, and Mariano Rivera. Carlos Pena or Jorge Cantu might be solid pickups at the right price. Theres also highly injury prone aces Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb. Of course theres the of chance the Albert Pujols leaves the Cards, but there really isnt. Id love Crawford, but again, that would probably involve moving Kosuke first.

 

And for the record, I really dont think that whatever happens with the Bulls, Bears, or Blackhawks has any bearing whatsoever on Ricketts offseason plans. Granted, a Labron/D Rose combo would get me back into the NBA for the first time since the Jordan era, but it would have no effect on how I feel about the Cubs.

 

If he doesn't considerably improve his numbers this year, I'd be absolutely stunned to see Aramis opt out. If he finishes the year with a .600-.700 something OPS, he's not getting the same type of money in free agency the Cubs will be paying him.

 

Thats a pretty big if. I really cant see Aramis staying quite this bad. Even if he can end up with an average in the .260s-.270s with an OPS in the low .800s or even high .700s he might very well end up with a 3-4 year deal do to the slim pickens in the FA pool, especially when it comes to 3Bs, and if he does opt out, I really hope that Hendry, if hes still around doesnt throw him a fresh 3-5 year deal. at 15 mil a pop.

[chopsx9]

June to Oct for 2008/2009 I get .232/.339 - I know I'm a little low on the OBP due to quick math - that seems to be worse.

 

Doesn't have to be that way this year - but it certainly seems to be a pattern the first 2 years.

 

June 2008 - .789

July 2008 - .688

Aug 2008 - .546

 

June 2009 - .507

July 2009 - .926

Aug 2009 - .904

 

Averaging numbers together doesn't provide a pattern. There would be a pattern if his numbers in 2009 were similar to his numbers in 2008. As can be seen, there's really no similarity whatsoever between his July/Aug 2008 numbers and his July/Aug 2009 numbers.

 

What happened to September's numbers?? September is after May. That was the time period in question. After May.

 

If you don't want to average the numbers...fine.

 

March - May 2008 .294/.398 June - Oct 2008 .224/326

March - May 2009 .309/.437 June - Oct 2009 .240/351

 

In both years his BA drops .070 and OBP drops .070 & .087.

 

Again certainly nothing is set in stone but for the last 2 years he has been better in the first two months that the last 4.

 

I hope he is better in the last 4 of 2010 than the first 2.

[dew1679666265]

What happened to September's numbers?? September is after May. That was the time period in question. After May.

 

Sorry about that. For whatever reason I read your post as June-August instead of October. Not sure why.

 

If you don't want to average the numbers...fine.

 

March - May 2008 .294/.398 June - Oct 2008 .224/326

March - May 2009 .309/.437 June - Oct 2009 .240/351

 

In both years his BA drops .070 and OBP drops .070 & .087.

 

The reason I don't like averaging numbers is all it tells you is that he hasn't been great in those months at some point. It doesn't tell you any kind of pattern or reason why he's struggled.

 

For instance, if a guy has a .200 OPS in June one year and a .900 OPS the next two years, his average OPS over the three-year period is going to be kind of crappy, even though it's only because of one horrid month. The pattern there is actually that he's improved significantly in that month from one year to the next, but his overall average is screwed because of that .200 OPS month.

 

Again certainly nothing is set in stone but for the last 2 years he has been better in the first two months that the last 4.

 

I hope he is better in the last 4 of 2010 than the first 2.

 

I thought the pattern we were talking about was what Tim said he was refuting – "The whole Fukudome sucks past April thing needs to die."

 

If the pattern is that he's worse from June on than he is from April to May, then that's accurate. But again, it's because he's been insanely good in April each year (1.052 OPS in 2009, .915 OPS in 2008). In 2009, his second and third best months were June and July. In 2008, however, he got progressively worse each month – but I would attribute much of that to his batting mechanics getting out of whack more than anything else.

 

Considering most of his struggles have been because of mechanical issues and we now have a hitting coach who specializes in fixing mechanical issues, I don't see that there's a likelihood that Kosuke is awful from June on.

[dew1679666265]

Thats a pretty big if. I really cant see Aramis staying quite this bad. Even if he can end up with an average in the .260s-.270s with an OPS in the low .800s or even high .700s he might very well end up with a 3-4 year deal do to the slim pickens in the FA pool, especially when it comes to 3Bs, and if he does opt out, I really hope that Hendry, if hes still around doesnt throw him a fresh 3-5 year deal. at 15 mil a pop.

 

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million (what he's making next year if he doesn't opt out). If he opts out and Hendry re-signs him, I could see a 2-3 year deal to bridge the gap to Vitters, but I can't imagine it'd be more than $10-12 million, if that.

[CubColtPacer]

Thats a pretty big if. I really cant see Aramis staying quite this bad. Even if he can end up with an average in the .260s-.270s with an OPS in the low .800s or even high .700s he might very well end up with a 3-4 year deal do to the slim pickens in the FA pool, especially when it comes to 3Bs, and if he does opt out, I really hope that Hendry, if hes still around doesnt throw him a fresh 3-5 year deal. at 15 mil a pop.

 

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million (what he's making next year if he doesn't opt out). If he opts out and Hendry re-signs him, I could see a 2-3 year deal to bridge the gap to Vitters, but I can't imagine it'd be more than $10-12 million, if that.

 

Ramirez will only be 32 this offseason.

[dew1679666265]

Thats a pretty big if. I really cant see Aramis staying quite this bad. Even if he can end up with an average in the .260s-.270s with an OPS in the low .800s or even high .700s he might very well end up with a 3-4 year deal do to the slim pickens in the FA pool, especially when it comes to 3Bs, and if he does opt out, I really hope that Hendry, if hes still around doesnt throw him a fresh 3-5 year deal. at 15 mil a pop.

 

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million (what he's making next year if he doesn't opt out). If he opts out and Hendry re-signs him, I could see a 2-3 year deal to bridge the gap to Vitters, but I can't imagine it'd be more than $10-12 million, if that.

 

Ramirez will only be 32 this offseason.

 

Well crap, that'll teach me to talk without double checking myself. The overall point still stands, though, I think.

[biittner77]

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million

 

Ramirez turns 32 in June. He only seems older because this is his 13th season. A 3 year deal at $15 million per is unlikely but not impossible. He'd have to hit about .335 the rest of the way to get his avg up into the .270- .280 range where people think he might opt out. He's certainly capable of doing that.

[Warren Brusstar]

I'd rather sell high on fukudome before the twirl o-matic comes back in august.

good god, how many times do I have to post this in various places?

 

August 2009: .287/.398/.506/.904

 

The whole Fukudome sucks past April thing needs to die.

 

I'm sorry that you don't like the truth. Fukudome's collective post-April numbers in '08 and '09:

 

.243/.345/.374

 

To be sure, two years isn't a sufficient sample to suggest that there is some sort of pattern. He certainly could be a productive player this year after April. But it is disingenuous to suggest that he hasn't been pretty bad after April in his first two years.

[Backtobanks]

"And for the record, I really dont think that whatever happens with the Bulls, Bears, or Blackhawks has any bearing whatsoever on Ricketts offseason plans. Granted, a Labron/D Rose combo would get me back into the NBA for the first time since the Jordan era, but it would have no effect on how I feel about the Cubs".

 

With all due respect westside, a few of us die hard Cub fans wouldn't change our feelings for the Cubs, but when the corporate money and advertising dollars go to the "hot" sports team in the city you had better believe it will affect Ricketts offseason plans. A Stanley Cup or a run at the Super Bowl or NBA Championship could switch tens of millions of dollars from the Cubs to another team.

[Guest]

I'd rather sell high on fukudome before the twirl o-matic comes back in august.

good god, how many times do I have to post this in various places?

 

August 2009: .287/.398/.506/.904

 

The whole Fukudome sucks past April thing needs to die.

 

I'm sorry that you don't like the truth. Fukudome's collective post-April numbers in '08 and '09:

 

.243/.345/.374

 

To be sure, two years isn't a sufficient sample to suggest that there is some sort of pattern. He certainly could be a productive player this year after April. But it is disingenuous to suggest that he hasn't been pretty bad after April in his first two years.

He was incredibly bad after May in 2008.

 

He was really, really good in July and August of 2009.

 

It's far from a given that he'll be bad this summer.

[CubColtPacer]

Fukudome was actually slightly better after the All-Star Break last year than he was before the break.

 

The 2008 and 2009 seasons were so different for Kosuke that there really isn't a pattern to be gleaned. In 08 he wasn't red hot in any month but slowly got worse from month to month. In 09 he was hot in 3 months, cold in 2 others and mediocre in 1. His worst month in 2008 was August and in 2009 it was his 3rd best month. His worst month in 2009 was June and in 2008 that was also his 3rd best month.

 

Kosuke has proven to be a streaky player. Anything other than that is hard to get from the data. Trying to lump his previous two seasons together is a nice temptation to have but a close examination shows two dramatically different types of seasons. The seasons were so different that it isn't worth trying to pick out individual pieces of data that happen to match up because the statistical noise is so strong.

[daske17]

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million

 

Ramirez turns 32 in June. He only seems older because this is his 13th season. A 3 year deal at $15 million per is unlikely but not impossible. He'd have to hit about .335 the rest of the way to get his avg up into the .270- .280 range where people think he might opt out. He's certainly capable of doing that.

 

Random nonsensical trade possibility, if Ramirez walks, what would it take to pry Wright away from the Mets. They have deep needs in pitching and OF help, and Wright isn't getting any favors hitting in Citi Field.

 

Minaya would never cede to rebuilding, but is it something to explore?

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't see any way that a 35 year old third baseman who just posted a high .700s/low .800s OPS and has an injury history would get a 3-4 year deal worth more than $14.6 million

 

Ramirez turns 32 in June. He only seems older because this is his 13th season. A 3 year deal at $15 million per is unlikely but not impossible. He'd have to hit about .335 the rest of the way to get his avg up into the .270- .280 range where people think he might opt out. He's certainly capable of doing that.

 

Random nonsensical trade possibility, if Ramirez walks, what would it take to pry Wright away from the Mets. They have deep needs in pitching and OF help, and Wright isn't getting any favors hitting in Citi Field.

 

Minaya would never cede to rebuilding, but is it something to explore?

 

Wright is a frequent target of Mets bashing - specifically his strikeout totals, but he's also the face of the franchise, much more than Johan or Jose. I don't think it's possible.

[daske17]

Wright is a frequent target of Mets bashing - specifically his strikeout totals, but he's also the face of the franchise, much more than Johan or Jose. I don't think it's possible.

 

How about that Ike Davis fella? Isn't he supposed to be the future face of the franchise?

 

Frankly, I think the Mets are probably one of the most unfulfilling teams in MLB for which to play. You're always in the shadows of the Yankees and the fan base is even more ruthless than the Cubs despite their more recent successes.

 

if they were the Cubs, they would use Wright as the scapegoat for their collapses and boot him for pennies on the dollar... but this is also my wishful thinking because I want Wright to replace Ramirez.

[treebird]

if ike davis becomes the face of the mets, the mets are going to be really bad.

[jersey cubs fan]

Wright is a frequent target of Mets bashing - specifically his strikeout totals, but he's also the face of the franchise, much more than Johan or Jose. I don't think it's possible.

 

How about that Ike Davis fella? Isn't he supposed to be the future face of the franchise?

 

He's the flavor of the month, for sure. The Mets always have some guy come up that everybody falls in love with. But Wright is the face of the franchise. He's also a good Ryan Theriot as far as how the female fans treat him.

[Derwood]

if ike davis becomes the face of the mets, the mets are going to be really bad.

 

it's never good to have a guy with a broken nose to be the "face" of anything

[Little Slide Rooter]

"And for the record, I really dont think that whatever happens with the Bulls, Bears, or Blackhawks has any bearing whatsoever on Ricketts offseason plans. Granted, a Labron/D Rose combo would get me back into the NBA for the first time since the Jordan era, but it would have no effect on how I feel about the Cubs".

 

With all due respect westside, a few of us die hard Cub fans wouldn't change our feelings for the Cubs, but when the corporate money and advertising dollars go to the "hot" sports team in the city you had better believe it will affect Ricketts offseason plans. A Stanley Cup or a run at the Super Bowl or NBA Championship could switch tens of millions of dollars from the Cubs to another team.

 

Even if thats true, as soon as the Cubs were ready to compete again, and if they do make their way to the world series, I guarantee all the focus and money would shift right back to them, and Im not just talking Chicago.

[biittner77]

"And for the record, I really dont think that whatever happens with the Bulls, Bears, or Blackhawks has any bearing whatsoever on Ricketts offseason plans. Granted, a Labron/D Rose combo would get me back into the NBA for the first time since the Jordan era, but it would have no effect on how I feel about the Cubs".

 

With all due respect westside, a few of us die hard Cub fans wouldn't change our feelings for the Cubs, but when the corporate money and advertising dollars go to the "hot" sports team in the city you had better believe it will affect Ricketts offseason plans. A Stanley Cup or a run at the Super Bowl or NBA Championship could switch tens of millions of dollars from the Cubs to another team.

 

I can't see advertisers abandoning the Cubs for the Bears since they play most of their seasons at different times of the year. As far as the Blackhawks go, without a TV deal, how would corporate sponsors try to market hockey fans?

 

If the Blackhawks sell out every home game and go deep into the playoffs, they've sold about 1.1 million tickets. Even when they've been pretty bad the Cubs draw 2.5 times that.

[jersey cubs fan]

As far as the Blackhawks go, without a TV deal, how would corporate sponsors try to market hockey fans?

 

Huh?

[daske17]

I can't see advertisers abandoning the Cubs for the Bears since they play most of their seasons at different times of the year. As far as the Blackhawks go, without a TV deal, how would corporate sponsors try to market hockey fans?

 

If the Blackhawks sell out every home game and go deep into the playoffs, they've sold about 1.1 million tickets. Even when they've been pretty bad the Cubs draw 2.5 times that.

 

It's not just the size of the in-person audience that counts. The Blackhawks have many more opportunities to advertise than the Cubs due to the limitations at Wrigley. Also, you have to look at the quality of attendee at the game. With all the corporate skyboxes (another thing Wrigley lacks) and higher-priced tickets, you're potentially marketing to a more affluent crowd.

 

The Blackhawks do have a TV deal with Comcast Sports Net and WGN.

 

So yes, I see the Blackhawks have a higher ROI per capita than the Cubs and advertisers will recognize that.

[Backtobanks]

"And for the record, I really dont think that whatever happens with the Bulls, Bears, or Blackhawks has any bearing whatsoever on Ricketts offseason plans. Granted, a Labron/D Rose combo would get me back into the NBA for the first time since the Jordan era, but it would have no effect on how I feel about the Cubs".

 

With all due respect westside, a few of us die hard Cub fans wouldn't change our feelings for the Cubs, but when the corporate money and advertising dollars go to the "hot" sports team in the city you had better believe it will affect Ricketts offseason plans. A Stanley Cup or a run at the Super Bowl or NBA Championship could switch tens of millions of dollars from the Cubs to another team.

 

Even if thats true, as soon as the Cubs were ready to compete again, and if they do make their way to the world series, I guarantee all the focus and money would shift right back to them, and Im not just talking Chicago.

 

 

Yeah, but you're talking about at least 2-3 years of lost revenue (1 year of mediocrity and 1-2 years of semi-contention before serious contention.) Also, realize that the economy has limited the money that many corporations can spend so switching those dollars back to the Cubs after sponsoring a successful Bears/Bulls/Black Hawks team may not be easy.

[WrigleyField 22]

Perhaps it is a pipe dream, but there is only one guy I'd really want to sell high on if he can keep hitting until the Trade deadline..

 

Soriano.

[dew1679666265]

Perhaps it is a pipe dream, but there is only one guy I'd really want to sell high on if he can keep hitting until the Trade deadline..

 

Soriano.

 

If he stays hot until the trading deadline and we were pretty significantly out of it, I could actually see Hendry offering him up. I don't know what interest there would be, but it could be there if we footed some of the bill.

 

I'm pretty sure I remember that Hendry was trying to deal him in the offseason, but there was no interest in him.