How good is Wells?

[champaignchris]

I went into this season thinking that if Wells put up 3rd or 4th starter type numbers that this year would be a success for him - 180+ innings, an ERA right around 4, an average starter, basically. I still thought last year was a bit of an illusion and that at his age, and for his salary, league average would make him a great asset for the team.

 

But, to this point, he's equaling, or even surpassing his performance from last year. His WHIP is up a smidge, but he's still not walking anybody and he's keeping the ball in the park.

 

Can a guy who was considered a non-prospect that didn't post eye-popping stats in the minors keep this up? I note that his H/9, HR/9, and BB/9 he's posted so far in the bigs, while better, are still very similar to the stats he posted in his 7 years in the minors. So, maybe he can keep this up...

[JonJayCutler]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

[The Logan]

I was one of the Wells doubters for this season, expecting numbers you had suggest for him at his best. Consider me very pleasantly surprised so far. I'd say take a look at his numbers at the ASB and if they're still in line with his production last season perhaps it would be time to start officially considering him the real deal and that he really has top of the rotation stuff.

 

I'm not sold yet though. Still a little too early to tell, but if he keeps it up you certainly won't hear me complain

[erik316wttn]

After yesterday, I don't think he'll regress nearly as much as a lot of people thought. While I think it's unrealistic to expect his ERA to be as low as it was last year, I don't see any reason why it can't be under 4.00.

 

Wells is for real. It's always nice when you find a diamond in the rough that comes out of nowhere.

[BeerHere]

After yesterday, I don't think he'll regress nearly as much as a lot of people thought. While I think it's unrealistic to expect his ERA to be as low as it was last year, I don't see any reason why it can't be under 4.00.

 

Wells is for real. It's always nice when you find a diamond in the rough that comes out of nowhere.

The fact that both he and Marmol were once catchers in the system blows my mind given their level of success.

[Sammy Sofa]

Maybe Geo is actually the next Lincecum.

[Omar]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

[MADD_DOG_31]

I don't understand the Wells doubters....he has 3 solid major league pitches, can locate all 3 unbelievably well, and is smart

 

Why people were/are doubting him is beyond me

[Old Style]

Randy Wells >>>> Cy Young

[champaignchris]

I don't understand the Wells doubters....he has 3 solid major league pitches, can locate all 3 unbelievably well, and is smart

 

Why people were/are doubting him is beyond me

 

There was no hype about him in the minors, he was exposed to the Rule 5 draft, picked by Toronto, then released by Toronto back to the Cubs, and he played his first full major league season at the relatively "old" age of 26. He was in the minors for six full seasons, posting nice but never dominant numbers.

 

I know all of the above is mainly stemming from the fact that he's a converted catcher who consequently bloomed as a pitcher later than might usually be expected, but there's still some doubt there. Like a mini-Roy Hobbs effect... "Who is this guy, and where did he come from?" And, I suppose, there's not a little bit of Cubs fan pessimism involved as well.

[Guest]

I don't understand the Wells doubters....he has 3 solid major league pitches, can locate all 3 unbelievably well, and is smart

 

Why people were/are doubting him is beyond me

 

There was no hype about him in the minors, he was exposed to the Rule 5 draft, picked by Toronto, then released by Toronto back to the Cubs, and he played his first full major league season at the relatively "old" age of 26. He was in the minors for six full seasons, posting nice but never dominant numbers.

 

I know all of the above is mainly stemming from the fact that he's a converted catcher who consequently bloomed as a pitcher later than might usually be expected, but there's still some doubt there. Like a mini-Roy Hobbs effect... "Who is this guy, and where did he come from?" And, I suppose, there's not a little bit of Cubs fan pessimism involved as well.

It's a bit more than that. Wells doesn't have a great strikeout rate and his actual numbers have so far exceed what you'd predict based on his underlying rates of strikeouts, walks, fly balls, grounders, etc. Even if you look at those fundamentals, he's still a good starter. He's just not sub-3.00 ERA good.

 

So when you talk about doubters - are you discussing people who feel he's really a 3.6 - 3.8 ERA pitcher? Or people who expect him to utterly collapse?

[CubbieBum]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

 

Did he say wins meant that? No. All he said is he figures Wells will end up with 14-15 wins and a 3.80 ERA. It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

[Tim M]

Wells has decent enough stuff and throws strikes. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the NL. People had doubts about him on this board mainly due to the fact that he isn't a big, shiny name like the great Rich Harden.

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Wells has decent enough stuff and throws strikes. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the NL. People had doubts about him on this board mainly due to the fact that he isn't a big, shiny name like the great Rich Harden.

 

*Bows to the greatest 4 2/3 pitcher in the world..*

[17 Seconds]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

 

Did he say wins meant that? No. All he said is he figures Wells will end up with 14-15 wins and a 3.80 ERA. It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

 

it's way different, considering HRs are something a player can control. it's pointless to predict wins when so much of it is luck

[Tim M]

Wells has decent enough stuff and throws strikes. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the NL. People had doubts about him on this board mainly due to the fact that he isn't a big, shiny name like the great Rich Harden.

 

*Bows to the greatest 4 2/3 pitcher in the world..*

 

It's nice of you to pay the proper respects to the guy who keeps long relievers in business.

[17 Seconds]

Wells has decent enough stuff and throws strikes. That's a pretty good recipe for success in the NL. People had doubts about him on this board mainly due to the fact that he isn't a big, shiny name like the great Rich Harden.

 

*Bows to the greatest 4 2/3 pitcher in the world..*

 

harden has averaged close to 6 IP per start for his career

[SouthSideRyan]

Rich Harden had maybe the greatest 2.5 month run you'll ever see from a Cubs pitcher, but yeah [expletive] him.

[Mike Aller]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

Yeah. That's actually a lot different.

[Tim M]

Rich Harden had maybe the greatest 2.5 month run you'll ever see from a Cubs pitcher, but yeah [expletive] him.

 

I don't have anything against Harden. I was as excited as anyone when we acquired him. I just found the extremely negative reaction to letting him go in the off-season to be comical. I think he could still have a good career as a reliever, but he doesn't have much value as a starter anymore IMO.

[UMFan83]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

Yeah. That's actually a lot different.

 

Yeah wow.

[Productive Outs]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

Yeah. That's actually a lot different.

 

Yeah wow.

 

 

he was just giving his projection for Wells. people project wins all the time (however useless they may be). i don't see what the big deal is.

[davell]

I kind of liked what they said yesterday on the telecast about Wells. Being a catcher previously, he wants to pitch quickly and pitch to contact. Which is what catchers like to see, since it's easier on them.

[Guest]

I kind of liked what they said yesterday on the telecast about Wells. Being a catcher previously, he wants to pitch quickly and pitch to contact. Which is what catchers like to see, since it's easier on them.

That's a nice story - but how does it explain Marmol, who is also a former catcher?

[bukie]

I kind of liked what they said yesterday on the telecast about Wells. Being a catcher previously, he wants to pitch quickly and pitch to contact. Which is what catchers like to see, since it's easier on them.

That's a nice story - but how does it explain Marmol, who is also a former catcher?

Marmol wasn't a good catcher anyway, so [expletive] contact.