How good is Wells?

[JonJayCutler]

Wow lol. Projecting wins is hard but not impossible. I suppose I should have given a wider window. I'll say 12-16 wins. Better? :-)

[Guest]

Wow lol. Projecting wins is hard but not impossible. I suppose I should have given a wider window. I'll say 12-16 wins. Better? :-)

I don't think people are suggesting that predicting wins is hard. I think the point people are making is that projecting wins is rather meaningless.

 

Are you trying to make a projection of Wells will perform? Or are you really making a projection of how well the bullpen will hold up throughout the year, how many runs the offense will score, etc.?

[CubbieBum]

Its still early, but 14-15 wins and an ERA around 3.80 sounds about right.

 

Wins.

 

Determines pitcher's success.

 

Did he say wins meant that? No. All he said is he figures Wells will end up with 14-15 wins and a 3.80 ERA. It's no different then saying what you expect a hitter's HR's to be or something along those lines.

 

it's way different, considering HRs are something a player can control. it's pointless to predict wins when so much of it is luck

 

Agreed. What I meant by that is that they are two relatively meaningless stats by themselves. Wins by itself can generally show over the course of a career a good pitcher but in one season or even two, bad pitchers can get lucky and good pitchers can get unlucky. Likewise HR's can show generally who is a good power hitter but guys can have fluke years where they have more than normal or a lot less than normal. While over the course of many seasons they may be somewhat decent indicator they really aren't good and there are much better options. All of that is pretty common knowledge and I am sure you know it already but that was what I meaning.

 

The reason I responded to Omar's post was that someone who says he expects a certain amount of wins shouldn't be jumped all over as if he said wins are some all important stat. He was merely saying he thinks with this team and Wells talent he expects him to get around that many wins. I'm sure he understands that Wells can get unlucky or lucky and end up with a different amount but 14-15 is about what a pitcher with his talent should get. Criticizing him for mentioning wins seems a bit much to me.

[Guest]

Again, the point isn't whether wins can or can't be forecasted. The point is, who cares?

 

We could try to forecast how many times he'll adjust his cap during the season, too. Regardless of how easy or how hard it is, what's the point of going through the exercise when there are much more important things to worry about?

[JonJayCutler]

Again, the point isn't whether wins can or can't be forecasted. The point is, who cares?

 

We could try to forecast how many times he'll adjust his cap during the season, too. Regardless of how easy or how hard it is, what's the point of going through the exercise when there are much more important things to worry about?

 

If the point is "who cares?", then why are we still talking about it? It took me about 15 seconds to type that post. I never said wins were meaningful. Bad defense can skew a pitcher's ERA but nobody mentioned anything about that.

[imb]

don't worry about them, it's mostly people who don't understand advanced stats trying to be the class stud by calling YOU out for not knowing them, even though nothing you said indicates that in any way

 

"HE SAID WINS, GET THE ROPE!"

[17 Seconds]

don't worry about them, it's mostly people who don't understand advanced stats trying to be the class stud by calling YOU out for not knowing them, even though nothing you said indicates that in any way

 

"HE SAID WINS, GET THE ROPE!"

 

a rare miss from imb

[imb]

nobody's perfect

[Tracer Bullet]

i think some people were more concerned with Bum's insane analogy to predicting HRs. at least I was.

[cubweiser03]

Wells is really good at not getting hit hard. His SLG against is freaking great.