The (new) offense and T. Colvin

[CubsWin]

I've been thinking a lot about this lately. First, it's too early to tell anything for sure. In fact, I've always been a believer in letting the season play out. For all of it's stats, Baseball remains a fairly unpredictable game. The '08 Rays, the '07 Rockies, the '05 White Sox, the '02 Angels and the '01 Diamondbacks all come to mind. It gets especially unpredictable when it comes to individual players who are at the beginnings of their careers. Look how often we've been surprised and disappointed by younger players.

 

The list is long on the disappointment side. We all have memorized the names. But that's a part of the development game and what matters is are there any players that did come through? Did anyone expect Soto to win Rookie of the Year? He had a breakthrough year in AAA in '07. The smart money (and all the evidence) said it was a fluke. His only public comments on what changed was that he started swinging harder. Then it carries over into '08 and he seems legit. Maybe he got overconfident in '09, thought the game was easier than it was, stopped putting in the work, lost his focus and gained weight. I don't know, but the early results from this year tell us that '09 was the fluke, not his rookie campaign.

 

These are human beings. Guys have breakthroughs. I'm always trying to find the reasons for shifts in performance. Silva was absolutely horrible in Seattle and after his first spring start with the Cubs, it looked like more of the same. Then there was an article about a side session he had with Larry Rothschild and Greg Maddux. He said they changed his stride toward the plate. He said he felt a big difference in that side session and got excited to pitch again, a feeling he hadn't had since being with the Twins. I was like, "okay...prove it." He has. Since that side session, he pitched 19.2 innings giving up 11 hits and 2 earned runs, 1 HR, striking out 9 while walking 2 the rest of the spring for a 0.92 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP. So far, that has carried over into the season where his numbers are almost identical (19 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 12 K, 2 BB, 0.95 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP). Confidence has a huge impact on performance. Maybe the adjustment in his stride helped him keep the ball down or get better movement on his breaking ball, I don't know. But he's certainly way more confident since then. He seems like a guy who is not the strongest mentally. In a later article, he spoke about how having his mom with him in the states was helping him. Okay, whatever works, Carlos. If he gets rocked in an upcoming start, how he responds will tell us a lot about his mental toughness and his ability to be useful for the rest of the season.

 

Colvin's breakthrough, if indeed it is one, came in the second half of last season long before Jaramillo joined the Cubs. Tyler also was returning from fairly major surgery, so being completely healthy may have also played a part in his apparent breakthrough. So it seems unlikely that Rudy has anything to do with his current performance. Uber-prospects like Jason Heyward who are putting up great numbers at 18 and 19 in the minors are the standard that everyone gets compared to. Colvin is not that. Soto wasn't that either. Neither was Theriot. But just because guys get it later than others doesn't mean that their ceiling is that of a reserve. Did anyone expect Theriot to be able to do what he has done over the last 3 1/2 seasons given his performance at the lower levels in the minors? I know I didn't. He was thought to be, at best, a decent utility infielder. He's exceeded that. So whereas the evidence from his early minor league career shows that Colvin is likely destined to be a 4th OFer, I'm open to the possibility that he could be more.

 

Reports from around the league, not just Cubdom, hail Jaramillo's ability as a master hitting coach. The early returns from Soriano, a former student of his in Texas, are encouraging, but we all know that Sori can get hot. Right now, he's striking out once every five at bats. That's an improvement over last year when he struck out once every four. It's early, we'll see if that continues. At least he's hitting and contributing at a decent clip.

 

A lot of posters on this board thought Randy Wells would regress this season, myself included. I thought he was likely to have an ERA between 3.5 and 4, but others thought he would regress way beyond that. So far, he looks exactly like he did last season. Awesome, the Cubs need him to do that. There was a reason why the Blue Jays selected him in the rule 5 draft. They saw something in him. The Cubs were fortunate to get him back. But, again, it's a long season.

 

With the return of Lilly, Zambrano moving to the pen, Marmol pitching very well and the bats coming around, the Cubs have a shot at making the post season. With some trades, players like Lee and Ramirez getting hot and balancing out the likely regression from others who are hot right now, I don't see why this team can't overcome the 3rd place predictions a lot of experts saddled them with. As always, we'll have to wait and see.

[SCCubbieFAN]

can't we make thread titles like "Cubs offense" or "Cubs offense coming out of slumber?" what kind of title is "Well.............."

 

 

Done!

[Old Style]

Am I mistaken or is this the last year of Fukudome's contract?

[SouthSideRyan]

Am I mistaken or is this the last year of Fukudome's contract?

 

You're mistaken, it's a 4 year deal.

[Guest]

Exactly. Fukudome is the only outfielder on the team that plays an acceptable RF. Colvin's success does not and should not impact his role on the team.

 

So do you advocate trading Colvin now while his value, perceived or real, is high or keep him? If it's the later and Fukudome is the RF, where does Colvin play?

 

If someone wants to be insanely dumb and give up something of value for Colvin, then go ahead. Otherwise just keep him as he is now. His future is a 4th OF, and since he doesn't offer much defensively it's nice that his bat has started hot. There hasn't been much fluky about his performance either, though that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to continue.

I assume you mean that Colvin isn't a plus defender at CF or RF as opposed to him being a liability out there. I'd say he's a little above average in LF, average in RF and below average (though not horrendous) in CF.

 

What's your read?

[Guest]

Exactly. Fukudome is the only outfielder on the team that plays an acceptable RF. Colvin's success does not and should not impact his role on the team.

 

So do you advocate trading Colvin now while his value, perceived or real, is high or keep him? If it's the later and Fukudome is the RF, where does Colvin play?

 

If someone wants to be insanely dumb and give up something of value for Colvin, then go ahead. Otherwise just keep him as he is now. His future is a 4th OF, and since he doesn't offer much defensively it's nice that his bat has started hot. There hasn't been much fluky about his performance either, though that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to continue.

I assume you mean that Colvin isn't a plus defender at CF or RF as opposed to him being a liability out there. I'd say he's a little above average in LF, average in RF and below average (though not horrendous) in CF.

 

What's your read?

 

It appears I misremembered. I thought the reports are on Colvin were average at best in LF, can't play the other two spots. While Total Zone reinforces that he shouldn't play anything other than LF(especially with his added bulk), the reports were more kind to his LF defense than I thought.

 

Still, the crux of my point remains the same. As a LF only player, his performance doesn't impact Kosuke, and he's going to have to hit a good bit. Hopefully this success continues since it has some strong peripherals to go with it, but since odds are he regresses to a .280/.325/.475 type guy pigeon-holed in LF, I'm fine with him staying in his current role, as it's the one he projects to going forward.

[rawaction]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

[Backtobanks]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

[Sammy Sofa]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

 

Slow down. If his OF defense and his walks doesn't improve over the long run then he's going to have to keep hitting out of his mind to justify making him a starting RF.

[TruffleShuffle]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

 

Slow down. If his OF defense and his walks doesn't improve over the long run then he's going to have to keep hitting out of his mind to justify making him a starting RF.

 

our current starting RF would have a hard time justifying himself as a starting RF

[Sammy Sofa]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

 

Slow down. If his OF defense and his walks doesn't improve over the long run then he's going to have to keep hitting out of his mind to justify making him a starting RF.

 

our current starting RF would have a hard time justifying himself as a starting RF

 

So why compound such brilliant decision making? Especially when it's someone who is likely to be a light hitting corner OF AND nowhere near as good defensively.

[TruffleShuffle]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

 

Slow down. If his OF defense and his walks doesn't improve over the long run then he's going to have to keep hitting out of his mind to justify making him a starting RF.

 

our current starting RF would have a hard time justifying himself as a starting RF

 

So why compound such brilliant decision making? Especially when it's someone who is likely to be a light hitting corner OF AND nowhere near as good defensively.

 

i'd do it if colvin could produce nearly as much WAR as fukudome at a fraction of the price. that is assuming, of course, that you could get another team to take all or most of fukudome's contract for next year.

[Keener98]

TT, I think you are selling Colvin short. Sure he never showed much in the minors, but he appears to be much more patient and selective at the plate. I think something may have clicked with him. He still was a top draft choice, with all kinds of potential. Could be living up to that.

 

Let's hope he's the real deal. Get him some playing time as the 4th OF and if he's for real trade Fukudome next offseason.

 

Slow down. If his OF defense and his walks doesn't improve over the long run then he's going to have to keep hitting out of his mind to justify making him a starting RF.

 

our current starting RF would have a hard time justifying himself as a starting RF

 

:-k Yea because Fukudome's 988 OPS sucks for a starting RF....

[Tracer Bullet]

it's probably not the .988 OPS he has through 19 games this year. But it might be the 89 and 104 OPS+ he had the last 2 full years that are turning some people off.

[bukie]

it's probably not the .988 OPS he has through 19 games this year. But it might be the 89 and 104 OPS+ he had the last 2 full years that are turning some people off.

If 19 games is enough to banish Z to the pen, 19 games is enough to declare the RF issue solved.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While I don't think that Byrd or Fukudome have to worry about Colvin taking their jobs, I wouldn't trade him without a solid return. After Byrd and Kosukes contracts are up, I doubt they are resigned. Meanwhile, I think most of our free agent dollars will go toward corner infielders, be it 2 free agents or extending Ramirez and a new 1B and overpaying for more mediocre relievers. Colvin may very well be our RF of the near future, and an outfield consisting of

LF Soriano

CF Sam Fuld, until Brett Jacksons ready

RF Colvin

The 4th OF could likely be Brad Snyder, Kyler Burke, or someone of the like. The marority of our prospects are middle infielders and pitchers, and aside from Jackson, we don't have any outfielders on the farm worth getting excited about.

 

Basically, Colvins being given an auditon. If he keeps doing well, the audition will continue through 2011, and it that goes well, theres a good chance he ends up with the RF job.

[Backtobanks]

While I don't think that Byrd or Fukudome have to worry about Colvin taking their jobs, I wouldn't trade him without a solid return. After Byrd and Kosukes contracts are up, I doubt they are resigned. Meanwhile, I think most of our free agent dollars will go toward corner infielders, be it 2 free agents or extending Ramirez and a new 1B and overpaying for more mediocre relievers. Colvin may very well be our RF of the near future, and an outfield consisting of

LF Soriano

CF Sam Fuld, until Brett Jacksons ready

RF Colvin

The 4th OF could likely be Brad Snyder, Kyler Burke, or someone of the like. The marority of our prospects are middle infielders and pitchers, and aside from Jackson, we don't have any outfielders on the farm worth getting excited about.

 

Basically, Colvins being given an auditon. If he keeps doing well, the audition will continue through 2011, and it that goes well, theres a good chance he ends up with the RF job.

 

I think it's safe to say that Sam Fuld will never be the starting CF on a regular basis for the Cubs. If Colvin continues to hit he could end up starting in RF.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While I don't think that Byrd or Fukudome have to worry about Colvin taking their jobs, I wouldn't trade him without a solid return. After Byrd and Kosukes contracts are up, I doubt they are resigned. Meanwhile, I think most of our free agent dollars will go toward corner infielders, be it 2 free agents or extending Ramirez and a new 1B and overpaying for more mediocre relievers. Colvin may very well be our RF of the near future, and an outfield consisting of

LF Soriano

CF Sam Fuld, until Brett Jacksons ready

RF Colvin

The 4th OF could likely be Brad Snyder, Kyler Burke, or someone of the like. The marority of our prospects are middle infielders and pitchers, and aside from Jackson, we don't have any outfielders on the farm worth getting excited about.

 

Basically, Colvins being given an auditon. If he keeps doing well, the audition will continue through 2011, and it that goes well, theres a good chance he ends up with the RF job.

 

I think it's safe to say that Sam Fuld will never be the starting CF on a regular basis for the Cubs. If Colvin continues to hit he could end up starting in RF.

 

Never say never Assume that we resign Ramirez to an extension, and then sign a big bopper like Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder to a huge deal after Lee, Lilly, Byrd, and Fukudome are gone and off the books.Couple that with the hopes that Soriano and Soto continue to hit, Colvin turns out to be a solid hitter, and Castro is as advertised. I think that that would afford ourselves the luxury of using Fuld at leadoff or hiding him at the 8 spot until Brett Jackson is ready.

[dew1679666265]

Never say never Assume that we resign Ramirez to an extension, and then sign a big bopper like Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder to a huge deal after Lee, Lilly, Byrd, and Fukudome are gone and off the books.Couple that with the hopes that Soriano and Soto continue to hit, Colvin turns out to be a solid hitter, and Castro is as advertised. I think that that would afford ourselves the luxury of using Fuld at leadoff or hiding him at the 8 spot until Brett Jackson is ready.

 

In that scenario we should have more than enough money to not have Fuld starting in center. We'd shed $43.3 million in salary in that scenario and gain whatever Fielder's (most likely future 1st baseman) contract is. Let's say $18 mil just to have a number to use, we'd have a payroll of (very roughly) $119 mil by 2012 - when all those contracts but Byrd's are up. And if we have cheap contribution from guys like Colvin and Castro, there's really no reason to have a plus defender with no offense in center field.

 

That's also assuming Silva continues to pitch well and we pick up his $12 mil option for 2012.

[TruffleShuffle]

That's also assuming Silva continues to pitch well and we pick up his $12 mil option for 2012.

 

that is a very poor assumption.

[dew1679666265]

That's also assuming Silva continues to pitch well and we pick up his $12 mil option for 2012.

 

that is a very poor assumption.

 

It's not a prediction of any sort, I was just adding Silva's contract in to bump up the payroll a bit more. It was to show that we could upgrade center field even with Silva's contract on the books. If his contract isn't picked up, we'll have even more money freed up that offseason (though one more hole to fill as well).

[Keener98]

I don't care if Silva goes undefeated this year and posts an ERA under 2, there is noway in hell they should pick up that 12million option. If they do Hendry is dumber than I thought(and I think hes pretty dumb)

[Burtonbell]

it's probably not the .988 OPS he has through 19 games this year. But it might be the 89 and 104 OPS+ he had the last 2 full years that are turning some people off.

If 19 games is enough to banish Z to the pen, 19 games is enough to declare the RF issue solved.

 

Don't tell that to Lou!

[CubbieBum]

While I don't think that Byrd or Fukudome have to worry about Colvin taking their jobs, I wouldn't trade him without a solid return. After Byrd and Kosukes contracts are up, I doubt they are resigned. Meanwhile, I think most of our free agent dollars will go toward corner infielders, be it 2 free agents or extending Ramirez and a new 1B and overpaying for more mediocre relievers. Colvin may very well be our RF of the near future, and an outfield consisting of

LF Soriano

CF Sam Fuld, until Brett Jacksons ready

RF Colvin

The 4th OF could likely be Brad Snyder, Kyler Burke, or someone of the like. The marority of our prospects are middle infielders and pitchers, and aside from Jackson, we don't have any outfielders on the farm worth getting excited about.

 

Basically, Colvins being given an auditon. If he keeps doing well, the audition will continue through 2011, and it that goes well, theres a good chance he ends up with the RF job.

 

I think it's safe to say that Sam Fuld will never be the starting CF on a regular basis for the Cubs. If Colvin continues to hit he could end up starting in RF.

 

Never say never Assume that we resign Ramirez to an extension, and then sign a big bopper like Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder to a huge deal after Lee, Lilly, Byrd, and Fukudome are gone and off the books.Couple that with the hopes that Soriano and Soto continue to hit, Colvin turns out to be a solid hitter, and Castro is as advertised. I think that that would afford ourselves the luxury of using Fuld at leadoff or hiding him at the 8 spot until Brett Jackson is ready.

 

Dew pointed out the biggest issue with this post but I also take issue with Fuld having any shot at being a leadoff hitter.

[Bote McBoteface]

I take issue with Fuld being on the roster at all unless its to fill in for an injury or a september callup.