Whats changed with Zambrano? Young Good Z vs Prime Average Z

[hardcorecubfan]

He's a #2 guy at best. Flashes of greatness mixed in with epic meltdowns.

 

Then what is sad is we have no #1 guy

[Abe Frohman]

Look at Zambrano's salary last year.

 

Now look at how many wins he had.

 

That is the problem.

[Sammy Sofa]

There are much, much better ways to argue against his salary besides pitching wins.

[Machina]

Off the juice?

 

Seriously- please don't ban me.

[SouthSideRyan]

I wish people would stop using made up rotation slots to describe how good a pitcher is.

 

It's just another way to group pitchers in terms of level of talent. I don't see the issue.

 

Because the terminology is based on Joe Morgan-esque mysticism and tomfoolery.

 

Oh this guy's a great, pitcher Jon, but he's not really an ace. See you need to have that ace that you can throw out there in a big game, and you just know he's gonna get the job done. And that's why I voted for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven. Blyleven never stepped up his game to that ace level, whereas Jack Morris was out there throwing 10 inning complete games when it mattered.

 

The term has less to do with how good a pitcher was, and more how your anecdotal evidence applies to him. Was Randy Wells an ace last year?

[inari]

Look at Zambrano's salary last year.

 

Now look at how many wins he had.

 

That is the problem.

 

Oh is it?! I see now!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Off the juice?

 

Seriously- please don't ban me.

 

He's a baseball player from that era, so you can't really say "absolutely no way it's possible."

 

But there's not really any evidence supporting it.

[Machina]

Off the juice?

 

Seriously- please don't ban me.

 

He's a baseball player from that era, so you can't really say "absolutely no way it's possible."

 

But there's not really any evidence supporting it.

 

Just an idea. I love Z, I hope its something else and he can work out out.

[Rob]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Zs not the only pitcher out there who has a history of stumbling out the door before pulling it together a month or so down the line. Granted, Mondays game was obsenely bad, and you never want to see your best guy get smacked around that bad, especially on opening day.

 

The sooner people just accept the fact that Z is a #2 pitcher making ace money the better off they'll be. Ive accepted the fact that he'll never be the perenial 17-20 win low/sub 3.00s ERA guy we were expecting when he signed that contract.

[Soul]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

OK, but I don't think it's out of bounds to complain when he melts down. Drawing larger conclusions about it may be, but it's really Z's job to be in top form every time out. Doesn't seem like he's been doing that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

OK, but I don't think it's out of bounds to complain when he melts down. Drawing larger conclusions about it may be, but it's really Z's job to be in top form every time out. Doesn't seem like he's been doing that.

 

No pitcher, ever, has been in top form every time out.

[Soul]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

OK, but I don't think it's out of bounds to complain when he melts down. Drawing larger conclusions about it may be, but it's really Z's job to be in top form every time out. Doesn't seem like he's been doing that.

 

No pitcher, ever, has been in top form every time out.

 

Plenty of pitchers don't suffer the same magnitude of meltdowns, with the same frequency, as Z.

[SouthSideRyan]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

OK, but I don't think it's out of bounds to complain when he melts down. Drawing larger conclusions about it may be, but it's really Z's job to be in top form every time out. Doesn't seem like he's been doing that.

 

No pitcher, ever, has been in top form every time out.

 

Plenty of pitchers don't suffer the same magnitude of meltdowns, with the same frequency, as Z.

 

And what magnitude and frequency would that be?

[Soul]

Z was the 33rd most valuable pitcher in baseball last year according to WAR. And that probably undersells Big Z, as fangraphs WAR doesn't include defense or hitting... and Z is well above average at each of those.

 

He's probably in the 20-25 range in overall value from starting pitchers. Overpaid certainly, but almost assuredly above average. He's not what he used to be, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

 

OK, but I don't think it's out of bounds to complain when he melts down. Drawing larger conclusions about it may be, but it's really Z's job to be in top form every time out. Doesn't seem like he's been doing that.

 

No pitcher, ever, has been in top form every time out.

 

Plenty of pitchers don't suffer the same magnitude of meltdowns, with the same frequency, as Z.

 

And what magnitude and frequency would that be?

 

We've seen that sort of inning from Z before. It's not just giving up the runs, it cascades into other things like bad throws.

 

I don't see all kinds of other pitchers doing that.

[Rob]

Basic back of the napkin math here...

 

Big Z was worth about 5-6 runs with the bat last season over what an average hitting pitcher would have contributed. I don't like using ERA, but I'm in a hurry here. Subtract the extra runs he created with the bat from the ones he allowed while pitching, and you'd have a guy who put up 170 innings with an ERA of about 3.48.

 

I don't have fielding data in front of me, but you could probably knock off some more for that.

 

A lot of Z's value doesn't come from his pitching. It doesn't make him less valuable... it just makes him weird.

[jersey cubs fan]

Why could you knock runs off his ERA based on his defense?

[SouthSideRyan]

Why could you knock runs off his ERA based on his defense?

 

Yeah that doesn't make sense, you'd give him some extra credit on his peripherals, but defense is taken into account for his ERA

[Rob]

Sorry, my new puppy was barking at me to take him out and I was flustered and still half thinking about how WAR doesn't include defense.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

We've seen that sort of inning from Z before. It's not just giving up the runs, it cascades into other things like bad throws.

 

I don't see all kinds of other pitchers doing that.

 

Quick calculation has Z making an error about once every 77.6 innings pitched. Greg Maddux had an error once every 94.4 innings pitched. When I had more time at work a few years ago I ran through the #s regarding Z's unearned runs showing he didn't give up any more unearned runs than the average pitcher(I believe he actually gave up less). If Z was this volcano ready to lose it any time, you'd think it would show up in the #s somewhere.

 

You've "seen that sort of inning from Z before" because every pitcher has that sort of inning where he gets dinked and dunked and then actually makes a bad pitch and it gets crushed. You've "seen that sort of inning from Z before" because there's already the notion in your head that he can't handle pressure, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy when it happens. That "sort of inning" has happened to every pitcher, but it doesn't stick when it happens to Ryan Dempster, because he doesn't "melt down," he just makes bad pitches.

[champaignchris]

The "Z has become a bad pitcher" thing is overstated. Is he putting up numbers like he did from 2003 to 2006? No. He's still never posted an ERA+ under 117 as a full time starter. That's better than mediocre. That's pretty darn good.

 

The early inning meltdown thing isn't particularly common for him either. He failed to pitch 5 innings in three consecutive starts last August. That was the game he was hurt and then the first two games coming off the DL. In his other 25 starts, he made it through at least 5 innings 24 times. In 2008, he pitched at least 5 innings in 21 of his first 22 starts, then pretty clearly got fatigued. Failing to make it to 5 innings in 4 of his last 8 starts, with some of that also due to the fact that the Cubs were so far in the lead at that point, Lou wasn't pushing him to eat innings. In 2007, he made at least 5 innings in 32 of 34 starts.

 

As for only 9 wins last year... He had an 8 start stretch where he only gave up 15 ER in 53 and 1/3 innings (2.53 ERA) and only recorded one win, which is why the win for pitchers is the single most useless statistic in baseball.

[Rob]

The "Z has become a bad pitcher" thing is overstated. Is he putting up numbers like he did from 2003 to 2006? No. He's still never posted an ERA+ under 117 as a full time starter. That's better than mediocre. That's pretty darn good.

 

The early inning meltdown thing isn't particularly common for him either. He failed to pitch 5 innings in three consecutive starts last August. That was the game he was hurt and then the first two games coming off the DL. In his other 25 starts, he made it through at least 5 innings 24 times. In 2008, he pitched at least 5 innings in 21 of his first 22 starts, then pretty clearly got fatigued. Failing to make it to 5 innings in 4 of his last 8 starts, with some of that also due to the fact that the Cubs were so far in the lead at that point, Lou wasn't pushing him to eat innings. In 2007, he made at least 5 innings in 32 of 34 starts.

 

As for only 9 wins last year... He had an 8 start stretch where he only gave up 15 ER in 53 and 1/3 innings (2.53 ERA) and only recorded one win, which is why the win for pitchers is the single most useless statistic in baseball.

 

Yeah, I posted this in another thread a few months back, but I think it still illustrates the point pretty well...

 

Further destroying the use of wins as a stat, lets look at the starts in which Zambrano didn't get a win.

 

 

April 11 - (QS) When Carlos leaves the game in the 7th, the Cubs are tied 3-3. Guzman comes in and gets an out, walks two. Cotts comes in and walks Fielder. Heilman comes in and gives up a hit to Hardy, scoring two and leaving the Cubs behind.

 

April 17 - Obviously a bad game, Carlos is left in to give up 7 ER over 7 innings to the Cards. Cubs come back to win despite this.

 

April 23 - L - (QS) Carlos gives up 3 earned in seven innings. Cubs only score one run all game.

 

May 22 - L - Peavy and friends throw a complete game shutout against the Cubs.

 

May 27 - (QS) Carlos throws 6.1 innings, only giving up 2 runs. He leaves a tie game, and the Cubs wait until the 9th to score 3 more to put us on top.

 

June 10 - (QS) Carlos gives up 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings. Leaves a tie game. Guzman blows it in the 9th.

 

June 18 - (QS) Carlos goes 7 innings and gives up 3 runs. Unfortunately, the Cubs waited til he was out of the game to start scoring runs.

 

June 23 - (QS) 7 innings, 3 runs, left with the lead. Gregg gives up a 2 run bomb in the ninth to blow the game.

 

June 28 - L - Not a quality start, but the Cubs are shut out by the White Sox.

 

July 3 - (QS) 7 innings pitched, 1 run. Cubs waited until the 10th inning to score their 2nd run and finally win the game.

 

July 7 - L - (QS) Carlos goes 6, gives up 2. Cubs only score one all game.

 

July 27 - (QS) Carlos gives up 1 run in 7 innings, leaves a tie game. Cubs wait til the 13th and a walk off grand slam by Soriano to win the game.

 

Aug 1 - Carlos gives up 2 runs (1 earned) in 3 innings before leaving with an injury. Cubs are up 6-2 at the time he leaves and end up winning the game.

 

Aug 25 - L - In his first start back since the injury, Carlos gives up 8 over 4.1 IP. This loss can be placed squarely on his shoulders (or management and the training staff for rushing him back, if you wish)

 

Aug 30 - L - Gives up 3 runs in 3.1 innings and departs early, still likely feeling the effects of his earlier injuries.

 

Sep 4 - (QS) Gives up one run in six innings. Leaves with the Cubs down 0-1. Grabow and Gregg combine to give up 5 runs without getting an out and put the game out of reach.

 

Sep 15 - 5 innings pitched, 5 earned. Left a tie game with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Cubs eventually score 8 more and win 13-7.

 

Sep 20 - (QS) Carlos goes 6, gives up 2 and leaves with the lead. Gregg blows the win for him in an eventual Cubs victory.

 

Sep 30 - L - Carlos goes 6 and gives up four in an eventual Cubs loss.

 

 

How many games do you see on that list where Carlos pitched badly and it likely cost the Cubs the game? I count three... His first two starts off the DL at the end of August, and his last start on Sept 30.

[Gmoney08]

Im not saying Z is necessarily a liability now or anything, but why was he better at a very young age. His age 21 to 25 stats were better than arguably any young pitcher in baseball besides Lincecum, Webb, and Peavy.

 

I would argue he was an ace or at least very close at those ages.. but why hasnt he kept getting better?

 

I know its more common for a pitcher to decline in his prime then a hitter but its still a damn shame. I thought Z was on his way to being one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball, and it just seems like hes not that good.