Andres Blanco to Rangers for PTBNL

[Little Slide Rooter]

Guys like Blanco are a dime a dozen and I am sure the Cubs can pertty easily find another one off the trash heap if they suddenly decide they need a good field / no hit utility infielder.

 

I have to agree there. Dont get me wrong, I think the utility infield defensive specialists are very useful guys to have on your team, but theyre the middle relievers of the position player ranks. Rarely do they spend more than 3 years on the same team, and often are lucky to string together an 8 year major league career. There rarely going to get big contracts. The Miguel Cairos and Ramon Martinezes of the world are abundant. Head on over to the Dominican Rebublic, and I bet you can stock the farm with dozens of slick fielding short stops who will hit in the .220s and .230s.

[inari]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

[bcl412]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

[Guest]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

[bcl412]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

 

I'd say that's not every player isn't it?

[Guest]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

 

I'd say that's not every player isn't it?

To me, his statement implies that every player that actually does last 8+ years in the majors should be glad they were lucky enough to be in that tiny minority. I would agree with that statement.

 

Even someone with the talents of Pujols can be derailed by injuries and not make it 8 years in the bigs.

[CubbieBum]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

 

I'd say that's not every player isn't it?

To me, his statement implies that every player that actually does last 8+ years in the majors should be glad they were lucky enough to be in that tiny minority. I would agree with that statement.

 

Even someone with the talents of Pujols can be derailed by injuries and not make it 8 years in the bigs.

 

Mark Prior doesn't have 8 years in the majors. Same goes for Rich Hill I believe.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

 

I'd say that's not every player isn't it?

To me, his statement implies that every player that actually does last 8+ years in the majors should be glad they were lucky enough to be in that tiny minority. I would agree with that statement.

 

Even someone with the talents of Pujols can be derailed by injuries and not make it 8 years in the bigs.

 

What I was trying to say is that guys who can hold their own offensively are more likely to have a longer career and big contracts, even if their defense is mediocre at best. On the other side of the coin, you can be great defensively, but if you cant hit, your lucky to hang around the big leagues. Sure, you may get a few spring training invites, or minor league contracts in case someone gets hurt, but your not going to get the big money, and your not as likely to be back with the same team the next year,Of course there are always the exceptions such as Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, but I wonder what kind of contract even Ozzie Smith would be getting in this day and age.

[inari]

Pretty much every player at every position is lucky to string together an eight year career.

 

Not really.

He's fairly accurate. The only requirement for making the HOF ballot is 10 years of service time. Since the ballot isn't flooded year after year, the vast majority of guys don't accumulate 10 years of service time.

 

I'd say that's not every player isn't it?

 

Your average professional baseball player certainly won't have an eight year career in the majors, so I'll stand by "pretty much every player." Those that actually get eight years of MLB experience are the exception, not the rule.

[CubbieBum]

What I was trying to say is that guys who can hold their own offensively are more likely to have a longer career and big contracts, even if their defense is mediocre at best. On the other side of the coin, you can be great defensively, but if you cant hit, your lucky to hang around the big leagues. Sure, you may get a few spring training invites, or minor league contracts in case someone gets hurt, but your not going to get the big money, and your not as likely to be back with the same team the next year,Of course there are always the exceptions such as Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel, but I wonder what kind of contract even Ozzie Smith would be getting in this day and age.

 

Ozzie Smith wouldn't be that great in today's game (Izturis?) but for his day he was great. Theriot has a career OPS 60 points higher than Ozzie but Ozzie's OPS+ is actually 1 point better than Theriot. So for his era Ozzie was a slightly better hitter than Theriot and was the best defensive SS. If Theriot played defense on Ozzie's level he would likely be considered a very good SS.

[bcl412]

It doesn't matter too much too me and it's kind of off topic so I don't want to talk much more about it but I found it moderately interesting so I searched for the average length a of a major league career and found this article.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin

 

If it's correct then the average career last 5-6 years so I doubt it's much of a stretch to say plenty of players make it to 8 years.

 

I guess players are lucky to make it that far but it takes luck to do pretty much anything somewhat successful so I don't understand why it's worth pointing out.

[Guest]

It doesn't matter too much too me and it's kind of off topic so I don't want to talk much more about it but I found it moderately interesting so I searched for the average length a of a major league career and found this article.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin

 

If it's correct then the average career last 5-6 years so I doubt it's much of a stretch to say plenty of players make it to 8 years.

 

I guess players are lucky to make it that far but it takes luck to do pretty much anything somewhat successful so I don't understand why it's worth pointing out.

You can't use an average for a skewed distribution like playing time. Looking at the median is much more informative. Or just look at the number of players who actually reach some given portion of the tail (for instance, the 10 years required for HOF eligibility) and use that to estimate.

[CubColtPacer]

It doesn't matter too much too me and it's kind of off topic so I don't want to talk much more about it but I found it moderately interesting so I searched for the average length a of a major league career and found this article.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin

 

If it's correct then the average career last 5-6 years so I doubt it's much of a stretch to say plenty of players make it to 8 years.

 

I guess players are lucky to make it that far but it takes luck to do pretty much anything somewhat successful so I don't understand why it's worth pointing out.

You can't use an average for a skewed distribution like playing time. Looking at the median is much more informative. Or just look at the number of players who actually reach some given portion of the tail (for instance, the 10 years required for HOF eligibility) and use that to estimate.

 

Around 25 eligible members a year is pretty good though. That means 1/30th of the bare major league rosters are retiring with 10+ years of experience every single year. 1/3 of the overall major leagues on their way to at least 10 years of experience when looking at rosters on any given day is pretty good. I'm sure if you looked at every single player that appears during a season the percentage would be way down because of how many players get just a cup of coffee. But for those who can stick 1-2 years they've got a pretty good shot at staying for 8-10.

 

Or we can take a look at the Cubs roster. Right now 7 have at least 8 years of MLB experience. 3 more have over 6 but less than 8. And then I bet at least 2 of Marmol, Marshall, Theriot, and Soto also make it with the possibility of another random 1-2 making it from the other 11 players.

[Guest]

It doesn't matter too much too me and it's kind of off topic so I don't want to talk much more about it but I found it moderately interesting so I searched for the average length a of a major league career and found this article.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/sports/baseball/15careers.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin

 

If it's correct then the average career last 5-6 years so I doubt it's much of a stretch to say plenty of players make it to 8 years.

 

I guess players are lucky to make it that far but it takes luck to do pretty much anything somewhat successful so I don't understand why it's worth pointing out.

You can't use an average for a skewed distribution like playing time. Looking at the median is much more informative. Or just look at the number of players who actually reach some given portion of the tail (for instance, the 10 years required for HOF eligibility) and use that to estimate.

 

Around 25 eligible members a year is pretty good though. That means 1/30th of the bare major league rosters are retiring with 10+ years of experience every single year. 1/3 of the overall major leagues on their way to at least 10 years of experience when looking at rosters on any given day is pretty good. I'm sure if you looked at every single player that appears during a season the percentage would be way down because of how many players get just a cup of coffee. But for those who can stick 1-2 years they've got a pretty good shot at staying for 8-10.

 

Or we can take a look at the Cubs roster. Right now 7 have at least 8 years of MLB experience. 3 more have over 6 but less than 8. And then I bet at least 2 of Marmol, Marshall, Theriot, and Soto also make it with the possibility of another random 1-2 making it from the other 11 players.

We also have a $140M payroll, which skews those results. Look at the Pirates roster and see how many they have.

 

If you're using conditional probability to say that everyone that makes it past the initial weeding out time has a better chance at lasting 8-10 years, I'd have a hard time arguing with that statement. However, by your math, even the majority of those guys don't make it to 10+ years (by 2-1 ratio - again, your math).

 

Still pretty safe to say that the vast majority of players in MLB at any given point in time won't reach 8-10 years of service.

[CubbieBum]

He's not factoring in the vast amount of guys who get a cup of coffee in September and never get anything more significant. That number is much much higher each year than the number of guys retiring with 8+ years of experience.

 

As for your Cubs example ... anyone who knows the Cubs knows they would be one of the worst examples. We have an extremely veteran laden team hence the high payroll, injuries and down years for so many of our players. How many guys were on our MLB roster at some point last year that will almost definitely never make 8 years of service? I would bet that number is close or even above the number of guys we have with 8+ years. I'm talking about guys like Scales, Waddell ... etc.

[wvcbxl]

You can't use an average for a skewed distribution

 

Thank you, Tim.

 

If only I had a tenner for every time I tried to get that point across, I'd be a rich man by now.

[jersey cubs fan]

Your average professional baseball player certainly won't have an eight year career in the majors, so I'll stand by "pretty much every player." Those that actually get eight years of MLB experience are the exception, not the rule.

 

The average player has less than 8 so that makes you comfortable standing by pretty much every player statement? That's just stupid.

[Guancous]

Another thread where everyone agrees with each other but gets derailed by pointless semantics. This will naturally devolve into an argument of about the parameters of "most" vs. "every".

 

I can't wait for the season to start.

[pitchcs]

With the SAME posters as always starting the arguments....

[Guest]

You can't use an average for a skewed distribution

 

Thank you, Tim.

 

If only I had a tenner for every time I tried to get that point across, I'd be a rich man by now.

It's frightening how often I see it in the media, including "reputable" sources.

[Soul]

Not that I think it's the end of the world, but I'm concerned about SS depth now.

[jersey cubs fan]

Not that I think it's the end of the world, but I'm concerned about SS depth now.

 

I'm not really concerned about depth, since they have a guy who can handle the short term placeholder spot, a soon to be ready prospect, and another prospect waiting in the wings. But I am concerned about seeing Fontenot play SS.

 

It's one thing if he was a really good hitter who could make up for his fielding at the plate, but he's not a good hitter and he's not a good fielder, so I really hope he doesn't play any SS.

[wvcbxl]

Prior to the trade, none of the MI's on the roster could be sent down without clearing waivers (and/or their approval in some cases). This trade is as much about "getting something in return" as opposed to "losing somebody for nothing" imho.

[TruffleShuffle]

Good. I'm glad we can keep Millar and Tracy, who are completely redundant together on our bench, and to make that happen we trade our best defensive player. Brilliant.

 

So you would rather keep a defensive SS who can't hit?

Millar can't hit better enough than Blanco to make up for the fact that he's old, a garbage defender and can't play any position that we don't already have like 4 other guys on the roster (who are better than he is) to play.

 

Millar isn't really the point. Theriot isn't getting pulled for a defensive replacement, so Blanco doesn't have that value on the bench. He's not a better option at 2B than Baker/Fontenot, so he's left with pinch hitting(which he's terrible at), and giving days off/injury replacement to Theriot. For off days Fontenot isn't much different than Blanco(and he has more uses beyond that), and Barney is equal to Blanco if Theriot gets hurt(and he has more options/roster flexibility). Blanco is redundant with the current roster, and considering he's not as flexible roster-wise as his fellow infielders, it makes sense to go with someone who could have any value as a bench bat.

 

i actually don't take blanco's development last year with a grain of salt - i think he'll be better than terrible offensively and will provide excellent defense, as we saw. IMO there is no reason whatsoever that blanco should not have made the team as a backup shortstop/defensive replacement. stupid cobs.

[Guest]

i actually don't take blanco's development last year with a grain of salt - i think he'll be better than terrible offensively and will provide excellent defense, as we saw. IMO there is no reason whatsoever that blanco should not have made the team as a backup shortstop/defensive replacement. stupid cobs.

 

Blanco didn't really progress all that much offensively, and I don't think he's any better than Barney or Fontenot on an offense + defense basis. And like I said, Blanco is only playing on off days for Theriot or if Theriot gets injured. That utility is much better served by Fontenot + Barney while keeping a bench bat with the roster spot, even if Blanco is marginally better than Fontenot + Barney.