Some old prospect burnouts

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The massive Starlin Castro boner got me thinking of some great Cubs prospect names of the past. Two that were linked together were Kevin Orie and Gary Scott. Both of them were probably unfairly put into the spotlight due to being the only close-to-MLB ready decent prospects the Cubs had at the time, iirc.

 

But here are two numbers that stood out at me:

 

.174

.237

 

Those are Scott and Orie's BABIP for the seasons in which they were labeled busts (all of Scott's MLB career and Orie's Cubs 1998). Did they get massively BABIP-screwed?

[wekim81]

Oh wow, Kevin Orie. I remember thinking that guy was gonna be the second coming.

[KingCubsFan]

Probably true, especially considering the Cubs almost never give position players a fair chance in the majors. Even so, Kevin Orie probably never would have been more than a .750-.780 OPS third baseman, so we didn't miss much.

[UK1679666180]

IIRC, Orie was rushed to the majors pretty quickly as far as not seeing many ABs above High-A. He bounced around the minors for many years & while he some bad luck hurt him as far as his initial shot, he did have other chances to prove himself to other organizations and for whatever reason couldn't make it work.

[chopsx9]

The massive Starlin Castro boner got me thinking of some great Cubs prospect names of the past. Two that were linked together were Kevin Orie and Gary Scott. Both of them were probably unfairly put into the spotlight due to being the only close-to-MLB ready decent prospects the Cubs had at the time, iirc.

 

But here are two numbers that stood out at me:

 

.174

.237

 

Those are Scott and Orie's BABIP for the seasons in which they were labeled busts (all of Scott's MLB career and Orie's Cubs 1998). Did they get massively BABIP-screwed?

Serious Question -If they were simply just bad hitters why wouldn't they have had those numbers anyway?

 

I can see a high number being easy to identify as an outlier but I would assume low numbers are problematic because its pretty conceivable for a player to be that bad (short of a decent amount of history pointing to the contrary)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Serious Question -If they were simply just bad hitters why wouldn't they have had those numbers anyway?

 

I can see a high number being easy to identify as an outlier but I would assume low numbers are problematic because its pretty conceivable for a player to be that bad (short of a decent amount of history pointing to the contrary)

 

Nobody's that bad at BABIP. Bad hitters tend to have a lot of strikeouts and few extra-base hits, but they still have decent BABIPs.

[KaiserCesar]

Serious Question -If they were simply just bad hitters why wouldn't they have had those numbers anyway?

 

I can see a high number being easy to identify as an outlier but I would assume low numbers are problematic because its pretty conceivable for a player to be that bad (short of a decent amount of history pointing to the contrary)

 

Nobody's that bad at BABIP. Bad hitters tend to have a lot of strikeouts and few extra-base hits, but they still have decent BABIPs.

 

Indeed, Orie had a .690 or so major league OPS in less than 600 ABs by the time he left the Cubs. There was some degree of bad luck in all likelihood and Orie subsequently posted an OPS in the low-mid 700's with Florida, still in less than 500 ABs. The thing is, he never really got more than a cup of coffee in the majors after the age of 26 when he would have been peaking. If he had some better luck (both BABIP and organizationally) he could have been an average starter, but instead he got labeled AAAA or something and just put together good years in Omaha, Columbus, Iowa, Nashville and New Orleans without getting another chance. There's probably a bunch of guys like this in history and just get a variety of factors that keep them from really establishing themselves.

[NewUserName]

I know this is kind of rehashing stuff that has been discussed before, but Ryan Theriot is only the 3rd position player that has become a regular for the Cubs in the last 40+years.(when i say regular I mean 3 or more years) That kind of track record tells me there is something besides just bad drafting that is the problem. The Cubs have clearly done a lousy job at developing positional players. One area that they really struggle at is letting a young player get over the hump at the major league level. I am not sure that Gary Scott or Kevin Orie would have ever been good players if the Cubs would have just let them play, but the Cubs are certainly not a team that a young player wants to have a slump with.

[SouthSideRyan]

Geo's about to become #4. Did you count Corey Patterson?

[NewUserName]

Geo's about to become #4. Did you count Corey Patterson?

 

I probably should have...cant say he didnt get a chance. other players who were given a good chance to succeed were Walton and Wilkens. Dunston is probably the only player the Cubs have just let struggle for an extended period of time without having a certain amount of initial success at the major league level. Of course he was very popular among Cub fans.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah I'm not so sure the Cubs didn't think that Dunston was succeeding in his early years.

[NewUserName]

Yeah I'm not so sure the Cubs didn't think that Dunston was succeeding in his early years.

 

it was a different era concerning offense from a SS. Remember Larry Bowa, Bill Russell, and Dave Concepcion were the benchmark at SS in the NL in the 70s. Ozzie Smith in the 80s

[Guest]

I know this is kind of rehashing stuff that has been discussed before, but Ryan Theriot is only the 3rd position player that has become a regular for the Cubs in the last 40+years.(when i say regular I mean 3 or more years) That kind of track record tells me there is something besides just bad drafting that is the problem. The Cubs have clearly done a lousy job at developing positional players. One area that they really struggle at is letting a young player get over the hump at the major league level. I am not sure that Gary Scott or Kevin Orie would have ever been good players if the Cubs would have just let them play, but the Cubs are certainly not a team that a young player wants to have a slump with.

Mark Grace

Rafael Palmeiro

Jerome Walton

Dwight Smith

Shawon Dunston

Damon Berryhill

Joe Girardi

Corey Patterson

Ryan Theriot

Geo Soto

Rick Wilkens

Jody Davis

 

Oddly enough, that list is littered with catchers.

[NewUserName]

I know this is kind of rehashing stuff that has been discussed before, but Ryan Theriot is only the 3rd position player that has become a regular for the Cubs in the last 40+years.(when i say regular I mean 3 or more years) That kind of track record tells me there is something besides just bad drafting that is the problem. The Cubs have clearly done a lousy job at developing positional players. One area that they really struggle at is letting a young player get over the hump at the major league level. I am not sure that Gary Scott or Kevin Orie would have ever been good players if the Cubs would have just let them play, but the Cubs are certainly not a team that a young player wants to have a slump with.

Mark Grace

Rafael Palmeiro

Jerome Walton

Dwight Smith

Shawon Dunston

Damon Berryhill

Joe Girardi

Corey Patterson

Ryan Theriot

Geo Soto

Rick Wilkens

Jody Davis

 

Oddly enough, that list is littered with catchers.

 

sorry, I meant with the Cubs. are you sure Jody was a Cub prospect? like I said in another post Patterson, Walton and Wilkens were at least given every opportunity to prove they could play after initial success. Smith was a player that had some success but the Cubs never seemed to think he was an everyday player. I may be wrong but I never remember Berryhill being a regular, if so,not for 3+ years. Even counting all those guys it is a pretty sad list after Grace and Palmero

[jersey cubs fan]

I know this is kind of rehashing stuff that has been discussed before, but Ryan Theriot is only the 3rd position player that has become a regular for the Cubs in the last 40+years.(when i say regular I mean 3 or more years) That kind of track record tells me there is something besides just bad drafting that is the problem. The Cubs have clearly done a lousy job at developing positional players. One area that they really struggle at is letting a young player get over the hump at the major league level. I am not sure that Gary Scott or Kevin Orie would have ever been good players if the Cubs would have just let them play, but the Cubs are certainly not a team that a young player wants to have a slump with.

Mark Grace

Rafael Palmeiro

Jerome Walton

Dwight Smith

Shawon Dunston

Damon Berryhill

Joe Girardi

Corey Patterson

Ryan Theriot

Geo Soto

Rick Wilkens

Jody Davis

 

Oddly enough, that list is littered with catchers.

 

Catchers, one hit wonders and/or guys whose greatest success was in another uniform. Grace remains the only one with a good career with the Cubs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Davis played all his minor league ball in the Cardinals and Tigers organizations.

[erik316wttn]

One-time top pitching prospect Lance Dickson.

[chopsx9]

They didn't quite crack the three year mark but Dave Martinez and Mel Hall were passable and had some early success as regulars with the Cubs.

 

Derrick May lasted longer than 3 years I think, but not sure he would be counted as a regular.

 

I remember Darrin Jackson having a couple of decent years but, again I don't think he was a regular for the Cubs.

[bcl412]

Do the Cubs suck at developing position players or have they just been bad at picking them in the first place?

[NewUserName]

Do the Cubs suck at developing position players or have they just been bad at picking them in the first place?

 

I think since the output is that bad, it is probably a combo of both

[biittner77]

In recent years the Cubs have placed greater emphasis on pitchers. On that front they have been a lot more successful.

[champaignchris]

Davis played all his minor league ball in the Cardinals and Tigers organizations.

 

Yeah. I thought he came over with Leon Durham in the Bruce Sutter trade. But I just looked it up on Baseball Reference, and it says he was a rule 5 draft pick from the Cardinals. That's a pretty darn good Rule 5 draft pick!!! 6 year starting catcher, two All Star games, a gold glove, and 122 HRs.

[biittner77]

One of our custodians looks just like Leon Durham. Too bad no one here (at school) knows who Leon Durham is.

[NewUserName]

Mark Grace

Rafael Palmeiro

Jerome Walton

Dwight Smith

Shawon Dunston

Damon Berryhill

Joe Girardi

Corey Patterson

Ryan Theriot

Geo Soto

Rick Wilkens

Jody Davis

 

Oddly enough, that list is littered with catchers.

 

looking at this list again, I also notice that if you take away a 4-5 yr span in the late 80s/early 90s you only have Dunston and some of the newer guys. Even some of the other names mentioned fall into that time period(martinez, may, jackson) Not sure what that means, but covering a 40+ year period that cant be good.

[SouthSideRyan]

Mark Grace

Rafael Palmeiro

Jerome Walton

Dwight Smith

Shawon Dunston

Damon Berryhill

Joe Girardi

Corey Patterson

Ryan Theriot

Geo Soto

Rick Wilkens

Jody Davis

 

Oddly enough, that list is littered with catchers.

 

looking at this list again, I also notice that if you take away a 4-5 yr span in the late 80s/early 90s you only have Dunston and some of the newer guys. Even some of the other names mentioned fall into that time period(martinez, may, jackson) Not sure what that means, but covering a 40+ year period that cant be good.

 

It means we had really shitty GMs between Holland and Green, and then again after Green.

 

And even Holland wasn't any good after the first 5 years or so.