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Posted
Well it's a bit of a chicken or the egg argument then. Kelly is probably a good example of a guy being held back by mediocre talent because the system he played in was very dependent on great QB play especially compared to the guys he lost to in the Super Bowl.

 

Aikman didn't have a good record until he was 27ish, Drew Brees played a while before his record became impressive. The fact is it is very easy for a very good QB to not have a good record.

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Posted
Well it's a bit of a chicken or the egg argument then. Kelly is probably a good example of a guy being held back by mediocre talent because the system he played in was very dependent on great QB play especially compared to the guys he lost to in the Super Bowl.

 

Aikman didn't have a good record until he was 27ish, Drew Brees played a while before his record became impressive. The fact is it is very easy for a very good QB to not have a good record.

 

Aikman went 1-15 his rookie season. He had to play on a lot of good teams to make up for that. Brees wasn't elite until he went to New Orleans. Good but inconsistent and they still opted for Rivers when he was in the fold.

Posted
Well it's a bit of a chicken or the egg argument then. Kelly is probably a good example of a guy being held back by mediocre talent because the system he played in was very dependent on great QB play especially compared to the guys he lost to in the Super Bowl.

 

Aikman didn't have a good record until he was 27ish, Drew Brees played a while before his record became impressive. The fact is it is very easy for a very good QB to not have a good record.

 

Aikman went 1-15 his rookie season. He had to play on a lot of good teams to make up for that. Brees wasn't elite until he went to New Orleans. Good but inconsistent and they still opted for Rivers when he was in the fold.

 

Failing to see how this defends your stance that it's very very unlikely that any elite QB would have a bad W/L record over an extended time.

Posted

Ok, how about it's very unlikely that an elite quarterback would have a bad career W/L record?

 

You're right that no one considers you elite until you start winning lots of games but I don't see how that's necessarily a bad thing. There's one overwhelming reason the Colts have won 12+ games every year.

Posted

I'm going through the list of pro bowl QBs over the years and the guys that you would consider elite who haven't had a big, winning year by this point in Cutler's career is pretty small. The big majority of them starting winning big in year 2 or 3. That includes guys who were drafted very high onto crappy teams like Manning and McNabb.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't point to 24-29 as to why I would be concerned with Jay. I would point to the fact that he sucked pretty hard last year and that we're going into this year with no big improvements on the line or at receiver.

Posted
I'm going through the list of pro bowl QBs over the years and the guys that you would consider elite who haven't had a big, winning year by this point in Cutler's career is pretty small. The big majority of them starting winning big in year 2 or 3. That includes guys who were drafted very high onto crappy teams like Manning and McNabb.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't point to 24-29 as to why I would be concerned with Jay. I would point to the fact that he sucked pretty hard last year and that we're going into this year with no big improvements on the line or at receiver.

 

Most of those guys played on a team that was bad and then built into a winner, or in some cases play for a good team right away and therefore skip the bad start. Cutler played for a bad team and was traded to a bad team. He didn't suck pretty hard last year either, that's just stupid talk. He was disappointing and inconsistent, but he didn't suck pretty hard.

Posted (edited)

Calling him a disappointment and inconsistent is a huge understatement.

 

He had 3 good games in the first 4 (after singlehandedly losing the opener against GB) and then 2 good games at the end when anything meaningful was out of reach.

 

He was pretty consistently awful from weeks 5-15 including big stretches of play that were pretty much as bad as anything Grossman ever did.

Edited by SpongeWorthy
Posted
Calling him a disappointment and inconsistent is a huge understatement.

 

He had 3 good games in the first 4 (after singlehandedly losing the opener against GB) and then 2 good games at the end when anything meaningful was out of reach.

 

He was pretty consistently awful from weeks 5-14 including big stretches of play that were pretty much as bad as anything Grossman ever did.

 

Cutler significantly outperformed anything Grossman did last year and didn't come close to playing as poorly as Rex did at his worst.

Posted
Calling him a disappointment and inconsistent is a huge understatement.

 

He had 3 good games in the first 4 (after singlehandedly losing the opener against GB) and then 2 good games at the end when anything meaningful was out of reach.

 

He was pretty consistently awful from weeks 5-15 including big stretches of play that were pretty much as bad as anything Grossman ever did.

 

That's not true. He only had 2 awful games in that stretch (Baltimore and SF). He was pretty good vs. St Louis (only 17 throws) and vs. Arizona (though the game was already out of reach). The rest were about average.

Posted
Look at the San Francisco and Baltimore games last year and tell me he didn't come close to Grossman-bad.

 

Those games were pretty bad. The Baltimore game was along the lines of Grossman's bad games. But Rex had 5 games worse than Cutler's SF game, QB rating wise.

Posted

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

For 3 meaningful games Jay Cutler was a good quarterback. The last two against Minny and Detroit were hopefully a sign of things to come. At least 2 of the games (opener against GB and against SF) were pretty much entirely his fault. He got a lot of blame for the Atlanta game and the 2nd GB game because of moronic red zone INTs. In that stretch there were several blowouts that it wouldn't have mattered how Cutler played. Now obviously every QB screws up and you can't just focus on their bad games but Cutler is lapping the rest of the field when it comes to bad, bad red zone interceptions over the last few years.

 

Now it says something about his talent that with no running game to speak of and a mediocre/hurt defense we managed a 7-9 record.

Posted
Look at the San Francisco and Baltimore games last year and tell me he didn't come close to Grossman-bad.

 

Those games were pretty bad. The Baltimore game was along the lines of Grossman's bad games. But Rex had 5 games worse than Cutler's SF game, QB rating wise.

 

Grossman had a better receivers, better backs, and a better offensive line. Cutler did have some terrible games, but I think the team around him last year was far worse. The blocking TE might be exactly what the doctor ordered. And a receiver taller that 6'2" with Aromashadu will help.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

I see guys in history like Archie Manning, Jim Plunkett, even Fran Tarkenton, Joe Namath....

 

The records aren't all that great yet these guys distinguished themselves. What are we supposed to think of a guy like Tarkenton if the record means so much? He played on some stinker Vikes & Gnats teams that brought his record down. I saw that guy do things in the pocket that I've scarcely seen since and once he had the team behind him with the Vikes he was pure magic.

 

I'm sorry, but "QB record" is a misnomer and a stupid stat, just like "pitcher record" is.

Posted
I see guys in history like Archie Manning

 

Archie has a career QB rating of 67. He finished with 125 touchdowns and 173 interceptions. His record as a starter was 35–101–3 (26.3%), the worst in NFL history among QB's with at least 100 starts. He just wasn't that good (although I admit never saw him play).

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I see guys in history like Archie Manning

 

Archie has a career QB rating of 67. He finished with 125 touchdowns and 173 interceptions. His record as a starter was 35–101–3 (26.3%), the worst in NFL history among QB's with at least 100 starts. He just wasn't that good (although I admit never saw him play).

 

He's also got to be the only QB in history to post a 60+ completion percentage and 3,700 yards passing on a 1-15 ballclub. He went to 2 pro bowls on .500 to sub .500 ballclubs. He's not really able to be evaluated in a vacuum because he played on clubs that might've lost to college teams, and that's really the whole point.

Posted
I'm sorry, but "QB record" is a misnomer and a stupid stat, just like "pitcher record" is.

 

Outside of Orton, how many bad QBs have good W/L records? Orton's record is already beginning to crumble. In the end, he will be sub .500. Your sins find you out.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'm sorry, but "QB record" is a misnomer and a stupid stat, just like "pitcher record" is.

 

Outside of Orton, how many bad QBs have good W/L records? Orton's record is already beginning to crumble. In the end, he will be sub .500. Your sins find you out.

 

I guess it depends on how you define bad.

 

I don't think Kyle's bad when compared to, say, Rick Mirer.

 

There's similar stories to Orton out there. How about Jim Miller? 15-12 career record (God, I didn't realize he started so few games). Kordell Stewart went 48-34 yet was always a source of argument and consternation in both Pittsburgh and Chicago.

 

Neil O'Donnell -- I'd describe him as decidedly average, yet posted a 55-45 overall record with some pretty solid Steelers clubs and a decent Jets team in '97

Posted
79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Probably more than one team will be interested in him as a project. Not sure where the Bears will fall on that spectrum.
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Posted
Danario Alexander ran a 4.44 40 with a 41.5 vertical today at his Pro Day.

 

Yeah, I got a kick out of the lack of speed comment posted earlier.

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