Re: Bears Offseason Thread

[SpongeWorthy]

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

 

What am I wrong about?

 

Just because Cutler has a lot of talent doesn't mean he didn't play badly last year. He most certainly did for big portions of the season. I don't even see how this is debateable.

[rawaction]

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

 

What am I wrong about?

 

Just because Cutler has a lot of talent doesn't mean he didn't play badly last year. He most certainly did for big portions of the season. I don't even see how this is debateable.

 

I believe 77.2 is "average". Only the 2 games that were already pointed out are far enough from average to be considered "downright putrid".

[jersey cubs fan]

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

 

What am I wrong about?

 

Just because Cutler has a lot of talent doesn't mean he didn't play badly last year. He most certainly did for big portions of the season. I don't even see how this is debateable.

 

You called a stretch of good bad and average games "downright putrid". That's absurd.

[SpongeWorthy]

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

 

What am I wrong about?

 

Just because Cutler has a lot of talent doesn't mean he didn't play badly last year. He most certainly did for big portions of the season. I don't even see how this is debateable.

 

I believe 77.2 is "average". Only the 2 games that were already pointed out are far enough from average to be considered "downright putrid".

 

In 2009 the average rating of qualified QBs was 83.4. Cutler's was 76.8 for the season and 65.62 for that stretch of games. That's really pretty awful and more than a full standard deviation below league average. You also don't give up a king's ransom for average to bad play.

 

Going into the 2nd Minnesota game the Bears were 5-9 and Cutler had 19 TDs and 25 picks. Then he went 8-1 TD/INTs in the final two games when the only thing to play for was Lovie's job.

[rawaction]

79.6, 64.1, 66.7, 98.6, 33.6, 63.2, 71.6, 96.0, 74.9, 7.9 QB ratings and a 2-8 record isn't average football. It's downright putrid.

 

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

 

What am I wrong about?

 

Just because Cutler has a lot of talent doesn't mean he didn't play badly last year. He most certainly did for big portions of the season. I don't even see how this is debateable.

 

I believe 77.2 is "average". Only the 2 games that were already pointed out are far enough from average to be considered "downright putrid".

 

In 2009 the average rating of qualified QBs was 83.4. Cutler's was 76.8 for the season and 65.62 for that stretch of games. That's really pretty awful and more than a full standard deviation below league average. You also don't give up a king's ransom for average to bad play.

 

Going into the 2nd Minnesota game the Bears were 5-9 and Cutler had 19 TDs and 25 picks. Then he went 8-1 TD/INTs in the final two games when the only thing to play for was Lovie's job.

 

83.4 last year, just means the average QB was above average in 2009. It's like saying the average grade for a class of 100 students was an 83.4% when the actual average grade would be a "C".

[SpongeWorthy]

The average QB rating of 2009 playoff QBs was 97.9. Cutler was 1.3 standard deviations below that for the year and more than 2 full standard deviations below that for that stretch of games.

 

He was closer in QB rating to Jamarcus Russell than he was to Brees, Favre, Rivers, and Rodgers.

[rawaction]

The average QB rating of 2009 playoff QBs was 97.9. Cutler was 1.3 standard deviations below that for the year and more than 2 full standard deviations below that for that stretch of games.

 

He was closer in QB rating to Jamarcus Russell than he was to Brees, Favre, Rivers, and Rodgers.

 

And? Just because he was closer to Russell doesn't mean "downright putrid". It's like you have 2 classifications: good and downright putrid.

[SpongeWorthy]

65.62 and a 2-8 record is downright putrid in my book. Now you could point out guys like Stafford and Sanchez had lower QB ratings than that and you wouldn't call their play downright putrid so I do believe expectations and the level of responsibility the QB has needs to be considered.

[CubColtPacer]

The average QB rating of 2009 playoff QBs was 97.9. Cutler was 1.3 standard deviations below that for the year and more than 2 full standard deviations below that for that stretch of games.

 

He was closer in QB rating to Jamarcus Russell than he was to Brees, Favre, Rivers, and Rodgers.

 

And? Just because he was closer to Russell doesn't mean "downright putrid". It's like you have 2 classifications: good and downright putrid.

 

It's really semantics. Cutler was a below average quarterback last season. If you take his 5 best games and 3rd worst game out of the sample (leaving the 10 games that Sponge is talking about) it has to be a pretty bad stretch in order to get him to be below average overall.

 

Of course, QB rating isn't everything. The fact that Cutler only lost 1 fumble should help his numbers and the fact that a much greater percentage than normal of his INT's were in the red zone should hurt his numbers.

[SpongeWorthy]

I use that 10 game stretch because after week 4 the Bears were 3-1 and Cutler had played 3 good games in a row which made the repeated boners against GB in the opener seem like an aberration. And then the season went in the tank after that.

 

By the time he started playing really well again the season was out of reach. Although you saw his talent in those games for sure. I'm not saying there isn't reason to be optimistic or anything.

 

As memories fade and a new season begins people are forgetting that Jay Cutler was pretty much a walking punch line for most of the season. You got [expletive] for being a Bears fan and it was almost exclusively because of Cutler.

 

The worst was when the Broncos got off to such a great start and Orton was playing really well. Luckily that faded.

[Soul]

I think Jay also did some really great things last year. Yes they were overshadowed by the INTs somewhat. But I'm allowing for a first year with a new team as well. I think he'll improve, and Bear fans need to show a little more patience with their QBs -- a problem that has been present in this city for quite awhile, IMO.

[JonJayCutler]

I think Jay also did some really great things last year. Yes they were overshadowed by the INTs somewhat. But I'm allowing for a first year with a new team as well. I think he'll improve, and Bear fans need to show a little more patience with their QBs -- a problem that has been present in this city for quite awhile, IMO.

 

Not only that, but more than a couple of his INTs from last year were due to blown receiver routes and general inability by the receivers to make a play on the ball. It's no coincidence that when Aromashodu (the tallest receiver of the bunch) started making plays, Cutler's numbers improved.

[hawkeyecub]

I think Jay also did some really great things last year. Yes they were overshadowed by the INTs somewhat. But I'm allowing for a first year with a new team as well. I think he'll improve, and Bear fans need to show a little more patience with their QBs -- a problem that has been present in this city for quite awhile, IMO.

 

Not only that, but more than a couple of his INTs from last year were due to blown receiver routes and general inability by the receivers to make a play on the ball. It's no coincidence that when Aromashodu (the tallest receiver of the bunch) started making plays, Cutler's numbers improved.

 

Martz likes those shorter, faster WR's though doesn't he? Those WR's that blew routes or didn't make plays last year are going to have far more complexities this year than they did under Turner.

[JonJayCutler]

I think Jay also did some really great things last year. Yes they were overshadowed by the INTs somewhat. But I'm allowing for a first year with a new team as well. I think he'll improve, and Bear fans need to show a little more patience with their QBs -- a problem that has been present in this city for quite awhile, IMO.

 

Not only that, but more than a couple of his INTs from last year were due to blown receiver routes and general inability by the receivers to make a play on the ball. It's no coincidence that when Aromashodu (the tallest receiver of the bunch) started making plays, Cutler's numbers improved.

 

Martz likes those shorter, faster WR's though doesn't he? Those WR's that blew routes or didn't make plays last year are going to have far more complexities this year than they did under Turner.

 

Cutler has said more than once that he likes bigger targets. That said, if Martz schemes the offense to work to the strengths of the shorter receivers like I think he will, then we should be in good shape. Hester, Knox, and Bennett each having another year of experience under their belts should help cut down on the route mistakes despite playing in a more complex system.

[ELCABALLO45]

QB rating is a terrible stat

[UMFan83]

Prediction: Martz successfully designs an offense to fit Cutler's strengths, he has a good (but not great) season and everyone assumes that he's finally figured it out and hit his potential. Which, in a way, he will have. In terms of very basic stats, I'm thinking 63% cmp%, 27 TD 17 INT 7.8 YPA

[SpongeWorthy]

I'm hopeful that Forte decides he doesn't want to be knocked down by stiff breezes this season.

[Wilson A2000]

Prediction: Martz successfully designs an offense to fit Cutler's strengths, he has a good (but not great) season and everyone assumes that he's finally figured it out and hit his potential. Which, in a way, he will have. In terms of very basic stats, I'm thinking 63% cmp%, 27 TD 17 INT 7.8 YPA

 

Boers and Bernstein have pointed out that last year the receivers weren't in the right spots many times and Cutler wound up throwing INTs that weren't his fault. This year, Martz's offense even more so expects guys to be in the right place and the ball be thrown their way even before the cuts are made. I don't think Martz is going to change because the Bear receivers are poor route runners.

[SpongeWorthy]

I didn't follow Martz too much once he left St. Louis because he coached such nondescript teams after that but he strikes me as a guy that likes to follow trends, loves gadget plays, and will adapt his scheme to personnel. I'm worried about the receivers running complex routes as well and I bet Martz will dumb it down. Hester's still learning the position (and isn't a rocket scientist to begin with) and Knox was a raw burner from a tiny school.

 

I bet we'll see some wildcat stuf and a pretty dedicated screen game with Forte and Chester. Probably a few packages with Forte and Chester on the field at the same time too.

[Butterscup1679666578]

how long can we allow Hester to continue to "learn" the position? This will be his fourth year playing WR, and third where he'll see significant time there.

[Wilson A2000]

how long can we allow Hester to continue to "learn" the position? This will be his fourth year playing WR, and third where he'll see significant time there.

 

The Bears have to keep saying he is learning to become a receiver when he screws up constantly because for some stupid reason Angelo gave Hester a new contract mostly predicated on the fact that he would become at least a number two receiver. I think he knows the plays, he just doesn't have the offensive skills it takes to get open, find holes, and so forth. He just isn't smart and he doesn't have great hands and is afraid to go over the middle and get hammered. I don't care how good Daniel Manning is, Hester is best used taking all the returns and kickoffs. The Bears had the best field position in the NFL when Hester had those two great years. This offense would thrive on that. What a weapon Hester used to be. Lovie screwed up big time.

[Wilson A2000]

I didn't follow Martz too much once he left St. Louis because he coached such nondescript teams after that but he strikes me as a guy that likes to follow trends, loves gadget plays, and will adapt his scheme to personnel. I'm worried about the receivers running complex routes as well and I bet Martz will dumb it down.

 

From what I heard, Martz is the exact opposite. When Martz got hired, he said that Olsen's first priority is to learn to block. That is not adapting because Greg obviously can't block. Then he got the TE he wanted in Manumaleuna, the blocking TE. The receivers have talked about how Martz has not let down and wants them to memorize the phonebook he uses as a playbook. Martz fought with many a coach, most notably Singletary, because he won't adapt. You bring him in, you incorporate his system. I am not debating the merit of that, but I just think this is who Martz is.

 

I don't think you will see the wildcat at all. Mart'z offense is stick the TE on the line, a couple guys go deep, and make big plays down the field while hoping Jared Allen or Su doesn't sit on Cutler's face. Give it to the RB if they get bored blocking once in a while.

[SpongeWorthy]

I don't have a problem with Hester, really. The biggest problem is that he's the guy defenses key on and he has to play a style that requires him to do something other than act on pure instinct. If he can be a solid weapon and avoid the crippling mental errors (like falling down coming out of a cut because he doesn't know what foot to plant) he'll provide value.

 

I do think he's afraid to get hit though. In the Atlanta game last year we were scrambling and he made one too many cuts in the open field when he could've housed it because he was afraid of getting blindsided.

[UMFan83]

how long can we allow Hester to continue to "learn" the position? This will be his fourth year playing WR, and third where he'll see significant time there.

 

The Bears have to keep saying he is learning to become a receiver when he screws up constantly because for some stupid reason Angelo gave Hester a new contract mostly predicated on the fact that he would become at least a number two receiver. I think he knows the plays, he just doesn't have the offensive skills it takes to get open, find holes, and so forth. He just isn't smart and he doesn't have great hands and is afraid to go over the middle and get hammered. I don't care how good Daniel Manning is, Hester is best used taking all the returns and kickoffs. The Bears had the best field position in the NFL when Hester had those two great years. This offense would thrive on that. What a weapon Hester used to be. Lovie screwed up big time.

 

I'd love to move Hester back to full time PR/KR and use him as a 4th receiver, but I'm not 100% sure how much of Hester's lack of impact had to do with too much concentration on being a receiver, how much is a worse special teams unit in front of him, and how much of it is 4 years in the NFL taking a toll on his ability. It's probably a little of all 3.

[Wilson A2000]

Maybe so (but do four years as a part time-receiver and returner really ware you down), but I still think he is most valuable to the team taking the kicks and punts. He needs to break just one or two and guys will kick the ball out or away from him giving the Bears great field position. Knox can do everything Hester does as a receiver even better. There really is no need for him there. Aromoshadu is the tall threat. Knox is the speed threat. Bennett is the possession guy. Devin is the fourth receiver who will barely get used and certainly won't lose his speed being on the field a few plays a game. Edited July 29, 2010 by Wilson A2000