Aaron Miles - the final analysis

[champaignchris]

Aaron Miles, signed for a 2 year, approx. $5 million deal... and promptly:

 

Hit about .100 points below his career numbers in Batting Average, On Base %, and Slugging.

 

Had the worst OPS of any player in the majors with at least 150 AB... .466. Of players with at least 100 AB, only Eric Bruntlett, Mike Aviles, and Eliezer Alfonzo had a worse OPS.

 

Posted a lower OPS than Zach Duke, Randy Wells, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Loshe, Russ Ortiz, Johan Santana, and Derek Lowe, just to name a few pitchers, none of whom are known to be "good hitting" pitchers.

 

But really, how much damage can a back up 2B really do? Well, with his 157 AB, the Cubs essentially played a quarter of the season with two pitchers in their line up. That's pretty crippling, wouldn't you agree? (Think Sean Marshall can play 2B? He posted a better OPS this year, and then Lou could do that cool lefty-righty switch off thing.)

 

I went back and checked Cubs teams going back to 1980 and, not only could I not find anyone with at least 150 AB who had had a worse season, I couldn't find anyone who was really even close. (Curtis Wilkerson in 1990 posted a .507... Special mention should go out to Doug Dascenzo, however, who posted a .428 in 139 AB in 1989.)

 

It may take more research to determine, but we may have been privileged to witness, not just the worst offensive season by a Cub in a generation, but perhaps the worst offensive performance by a Cub ever. (And, yes, I agree that "worst offensive" is redundant.)

 

Of course, best of all, he's under contract for next year!!!

[17 Seconds]

awesome

[davell]

I honestly thought it would be a foregone conclusion that we would DFA him this offseason. But, I'm not aware of ANY speculation from the beat writers that this is going to happen. If we keep him at this point, I'm not going to be surprised at all, which is just sad.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd prefer "Aaron Miles - The Final Solution."

 

I can't believe he made me long for the days of Neifi.

[Backtobanks]

I honestly thought it would be a foregone conclusion that we would DFA him this offseason. But, I'm not aware of ANY speculation from the beat writers that this is going to happen. If we keep him at this point, I'm not going to be surprised at all, which is just sad.

 

I did read something about the Cubs might DFA him.

[Little Slide Rooter]

But hes white and non confrontational.

[Backtobanks]

Aaron Miles sucks, Hendry should never have signed or given him a 2-year contract, and he had an atrocious season (as you pointed out). However, he was injured twice during the season for a total of 7 weeks, which might explain part of his atrocious season. Without using injuries as an excuse, he probably would have had an OPS of .550. :-)) :-)) :-))

[inari]

But hes white and non confrontational.

 

So am I.

[Tim M]

I think Aaron Miles awfulness has already been detailed extensively on this board. He was awful, let's move on with our lives.

[RedFlash]

To be fair, Aaron Miles was the first batter ever at New Yankee Stadium, and much to many surprises he got a hit.

 

 

He got that going for him.

[champaignchris]

I think Aaron Miles awfulness has already been detailed extensively on this board. He was awful, let's move on with our lives.

 

When you consider that Miles signed his 2-year, $4.9 million contract on December 31, 2008 and Orlando Hudson signed his 1-year $3.4 million contract with the Dodgers on February 20, 2009, one could argue that his awfulness hasn't been addressed anywhere near enough.

[CubColtPacer]

I think Aaron Miles awfulness has already been detailed extensively on this board. He was awful, let's move on with our lives.

 

When you consider that Miles signed his 2-year, $4.9 million contract on December 31, 2008 and Orlando Hudson signed his 1-year $3.4 million contract with the Dodgers on February 20, 2009, one could argue that his awfulness hasn't been addressed anywhere near enough.

 

Hudson was a Type A free agent which drove down his value considerably. And Hudson would have never signed with the Cubs without the team promising him the starting job. One of the reasons the Cubs traded away their starting 2B in the first place was because they felt Fontenot was ready for more at-bats. They weren't going to trade DeRosa just to sign another starting second baseman who also would have cost them their 1st round pick.

 

The Miles contract is bad enough on its own. There's no reason to need to make a very flawed comparison with Hudson who had different costs associated with him and was signed for a very different purpose.

[mlarner]

I think Aaron Miles awfulness has already been detailed extensively on this board. He was awful, let's move on with our lives.

 

When you consider that Miles signed his 2-year, $4.9 million contract on December 31, 2008 and Orlando Hudson signed his 1-year $3.4 million contract with the Dodgers on February 20, 2009, one could argue that his awfulness hasn't been addressed anywhere near enough.

 

Hudson was a Type A free agent which drove down his value considerably. And Hudson would have never signed with the Cubs without the team promising him the starting job. One of the reasons the Cubs traded away their starting 2B in the first place was because they felt Fontenot was ready for more at-bats. They weren't going to trade DeRosa just to sign another starting second baseman who also would have cost them their 1st round pick.

 

The Miles contract is bad enough on its own. There's no reason to need to make a very flawed comparison with Hudson who had different costs associated with him and was signed for a very different purpose.

Wasn't Hudson recovering from an injury as well? That would drive down his value even more.

[champaignchris]

O.K., how's this then...

 

Why do you trade Michael Wuertz for pocket change, then effectively trade Cedeno and Pie for an older, more expensive, not as good version of Wuertz, and follow that up with spending about $3 million to sign older, more expensive, not as good versions of Cedeno and Pie (Miles and Gaithright)?

 

And I've now checked back through 1960 and found no Cubs player to have had at least 150 ABs and a worse OPS than Miles this year. Although Don Kessinger's 1965 was a sight to behold... .485 in 309 AB. Of course, he was 23, in his first full season in the bigs, and he'd later go on to be a six-time All Star...

[Cubfanintheknow]

Wouldn't be surprised at all to see Aaron Miles DFA'ed at the end of April of 2010, if not the end of spring training. I don't think the Cubs can take another full year of this. And I know the server of this message board won't be able to take it, either.

[17 Seconds]

final analysis- this guy fuckin sucks

[Outshined_One]

But hes white and non confrontational.

 

So am I.

 

Are you also left-handed?

[Tarver]

Worst case scenario: Hendry is retained, Miles returns and puts up an '08-type season.

[Tarver]

Worst case scenario: Hendry is retained, Miles returns and puts up an '08-type season.

[Tarver]

I'll amend that. Miles returning and putting up his '08 numbers would be bad even with a new GM.

[Rob]

In no way is this meant as a defense of the Aaron Miles signing. I was just as mortified as the rest of you to learn he'd be getting paid like he is. However, strange things can happen in 170 PA.

 

LD% and BABIP year by year:

 

2004 - 18.1%, .313

2005 - 23.1%, .312

2006 - 20.1%, .286

2007 - 17.9%, .313

2008 - 21.0%, .342

2009 - 20.0%, .213

 

It's pretty obvious he ran into ridiculous amount of bad luck. It looks like he missed out on about 16 hits, which is just an absurdly high number for his 170 PA. With neutral luck, his line looks like .277/.312/.370. Is that good? No. But it's in line with reasonable preseason predictions and his career numbers. It's about what I'd expect out of him next season.

[jersey cubs fan]

In no way is this meant as a defense of the Aaron Miles signing. I was just as mortified as the rest of you to learn he'd be getting paid like he is. However, strange things can happen in 170 PA.

 

LD% and BABIP year by year:

 

2004 - 18.1%, .313

2005 - 23.1%, .312

2006 - 20.1%, .286

2007 - 17.9%, .313

2008 - 21.0%, .342

2009 - 20.0%, .213

 

It's pretty obvious he ran into ridiculous amount of bad luck. It looks like he missed out on about 16 hits, which is just an absurdly high number for his 170 PA. With neutral luck, his line looks like .277/.312/.370. Is that good? No. But it's in line with reasonable preseason predictions and his career numbers. It's about what I'd expect out of him next season.

 

 

Yes, but like my 12 year old cousin, if the ball stays in the air until it reaches the infielders, for Miles that's considered a line drive. No matter how soft it was hit.

[Rob]

Okay then, just plug in his career BABIP of .306.

 

.265/.301/.353

[TruffleShuffle]

i didn't feel like aaron miles hit 20 line drives total. perhaps it's just the naked eye betraying me, but i never really felt like he was getting robbed by great defense or hitting the ball right at guys. he just seemed to make weak contact all the time.

[hardcorecubfan]

I admire your in-depth research going back to the 80's but the rest of it is like preaching to the choir. I think Lou will hold him until the fifth ST game when he is showing some recovery from the year long case of African sleeping sickness, then dump him to Toronto for some broken hockey sticks