Harden done for season, Gorzelanny to rotation

[Schwarber Fan]

The Cubs are shutting down Rich Harden for the rest of the year.

 

Harden, who has struggled with his command the last three starts, including Wednesday's 71-pitch, three-inning outing, is being replaced in the rotation.

 

Manager Lou Piniella said Tom Gorzelanny would replace Harden in his next start on Monday and the Cubs would make plans afterwards.

 

But sources said Harden is done for 2009 and may have thrown his last pitch as a Cub, unless he re-signs as a free agent.

 

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2009/09/cubs-shut-down-rich-harden-for-season.html

 

Not even sure what to say.

[Sammy Sofa]

Could have all been avoided if they had bothered to keep Harden on normal rest all year (with some skipped starts) like they had said they wanted to do before the season, but hey, why stick to a logical decision?

[SouthSideRyan]

This is unclear whether it's due to injuries or Lou's pouting.

 

Either way, this is horribly sad.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I say offer arbitration in the off season, If he accepts, super, if not, pocket the draft picks.

[laurens]

Whatever team he ends up with next season, I'll keep rooting for him to be the best pitcher in the league (which he can be), and feel sorry for him for the way the Cubs handled him.

[Tracer Bullet]

I got to see Harden pitch in person twice this year and he was horrible both times. I was really excited when they traded for him, but boy has he been up and down this year. Sucks.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I heard conflicting reports on Waddle & Silvy this morning that Harden is being skipped 1-2 starts, meaning he may still pitch another game or two.

[hossdriver]

I heard conflicting reports on Waddle & Silvy this morning that Harden is being skipped 1-2 starts, meaning he may still pitch another game or two.

 

 

I agree. I know people are saying the Cubs are absolutely done, but a 5.5 game deficit isn't impossible to overcome with 19 games remaining. Why is everyone talking about laying down so early?

 

Yeah, Soriano is likely done, but his .241 batting average over the first 5 months wasn't carrying the team anyway... I hate the idea that these guys are giving up. There ought to be NO QUESTION why the Cubs haven't won in over a 100 years with that kind of cowardice and lack of pride to finish strong.

[Tyrant]

I agree. I know people are saying the Cubs are absolutely done, but a 5.5 game deficit isn't impossible to overcome with 19 games remaining. Why is everyone talking about laying down so early?

 

Because there's a 1 percent chance they make the playoffs.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm not going to crap on the cubs for the way they handled him. yeah they didn't necessarily stick to the script all year, but they kept him on a tight leash as far as pitch counts. he pitched 72 innings in 2006-07... clearly he has a fragile arm and even handling him with kid gloves may not be enough.

[SouthSideRyan]

And it's 6.5 games with 18 left.

[Guest]

And it's 6.5 games with 18 left.

The difficult part is four teams ahead of the Cubs.

 

There are enough examples in baseball history of a team overcoming six games to win a playoff spot over one team. But it requires both the chasing team to win a lot of games and the leading team to lose them. In this case, we'd not only have to win a lot of games, but we'd require four separate teams to lose a whole bunch, too.

 

It's just not going to happen.

[javy knows my name]

Whatever team he ends up with next season, I'll keep rooting for him to be the best pitcher in the league (which he can be), and feel sorry for him for the way the Cubs handled him.

This sounds eerily familiar.

[CubColtPacer]

And it's 6.5 games with 18 left.

The difficult part is four teams ahead of the Cubs.

 

There are enough examples in baseball history of a team overcoming six games to win a playoff spot over one team. But it requires both the chasing team to win a lot of games and the leading team to lose them. In this case, we'd not only have to win a lot of games, but we'd require four separate teams to lose a whole bunch, too.

 

It's just not going to happen.

 

I don't think the 4 teams is a big deal actually. If the Cubs were going to get back into it, they'd have to play at an absurd rate the rest of the way...something like 15-3. If they do that, the Marlins would have to go 12-4 to tie and the Braves would have to go 13-4. While either of those are possible, they aren't very likely.

 

The Giants would just have to go 11-5, but that would be very difficult for them if the Cubs went 15-3 since the Cubs play 4 against them (the likelihood is that the Cubs would have had to win at least 3 against them to get that sort of record).

 

So really, if the Cubs were to catch Colorado they would have already caught the other 3. The only scenario that really makes the other 3 a problem is it takes out the scenario where Colorado goes something like 2-13 over their last 15 games and the Cubs sneak in even though they only played decently down the stretch. However, that's probably a more unrealistic scenario than the one above.

 

It's pretty much all about Colorado.

[Grit amp Heart]

I'm convinced this season is a test. It would only be fiting for the Cubs to win the World Series after being down to the final half percent at one point. Take the Red Sox for example. What was their World Series win probability with 2 outs in 9th of game 4 of the 04 ALCS? .00001 or so?

[SouthSideRyan]

And it's 6.5 games with 18 left.

The difficult part is four teams ahead of the Cubs.

 

There are enough examples in baseball history of a team overcoming six games to win a playoff spot over one team. But it requires both the chasing team to win a lot of games and the leading team to lose them. In this case, we'd not only have to win a lot of games, but we'd require four separate teams to lose a whole bunch, too.

 

It's just not going to happen.

 

No, the issue is the 6.5 games with 18 left. The Braves and Marlins are close enough that any making up of 6.5 games would involve the Cubs passing them. Additionally the Cubs have 4 games with the Giants. Unless you're counting on an epic Rockies collapse, the other 3 teams don't matter.

[Pushfrog98]

I agree. I know people are saying the Cubs are absolutely done, but a 5.5 game deficit isn't impossible to overcome with 19 games remaining. Why is everyone talking about laying down so early?

 

Because there's a 1 percent chance they make the playoffs.

So you're saying there's a chance?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2085/2079118961_08150e7b12.jpg

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm convinced this season is a test. It would only be fiting for the Cubs to win the World Series after being down to the final half percent at one point. Take the Red Sox for example. What was their World Series win probability with 2 outs in 9th of game 4 of the 04 ALCS? .00001 or so?

 

Not even close to that low. IIRC, I don't think their odds of winning the ALCS as a whole ever dropped below 1%

[NCCubFan]

Harden is not being shut down for the year. Cubs.com states that he will be miss at least one, and possibly two, of his remaining three scheduled starts. That means that he will make either one or two more starts.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald guesses the Cubs will not risk offering arbitration to the potential Type A free agent.

 

Wow.So Im guessing the 5th starter comes down to Marhshall and Gorzalanny, with the ever intriguing Thomas Diamond as the dark horse.

[illiniguy]

Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald guesses the Cubs will not risk offering arbitration to the potential Type A free agent.

 

Wow.So Im guessing the 5th starter comes down to Marhshall and Gorzalanny, with the ever intriguing Thomas Diamond as the dark horse.

What exactly is the risk. Hendry is just awful. If he accepts then we have a good pitcher for one more year, if not we get two draft picks. Why doesn't Jim have any level of accountability?

[TruffleShuffle]

not offering harden arbitration would be extremely idiotic. that means they'd be required to offer him $5.6M, which is a bargain, and he wouldn't take it because he'll get more than that on the open market.

[SouthSideRyan]

not offering harden arbitration would be extremely idiotic. that means they'd be required to offer him $5.6M, which is a bargain, and he wouldn't take it because he'll get more than that on the open market.

 

Just because the Cubs offered 5.6M in arbitration doesn't mean he'd be stuck with that if he accepts.

 

Regardless, this is just stupid on every level unless they know something about Harden's shoulder(besides the usual) And if they know Harden's shoulder is effed up and they're still going to pitch him then they're stupid and they're assholes for running an injured guy out there that won't be on your team next year for meaningless games.

[illiniguy]

I don't get how anyone could think Jim Hendry sticking around is a good thing. He has no idea what he's doing.

[CubColtPacer]

not offering harden arbitration would be extremely idiotic. that means they'd be required to offer him $5.6M, which is a bargain, and he wouldn't take it because he'll get more than that on the open market.

 

The 5.6 million number isn't realistic. If the Cubs offer arbitration and Harden accepts he'll probably get at least 10 and potentially 12-13 (it's hard to say exactly since Harden missed so much time in his early arbitration years and he had the club option instead of arbitration last year so there's no history to go off with him personally..plus there aren't a ton of comparables for Harden so it would be a risky arbitration case for both sides).

 

Is there risk? Sure, there's risk. If Harden accepts arbitration, that's probably it for the Cubs offseason. They would have no money after giving Harden a raise along with the rest of players that are due for raises. They'd make 1-2 minor moves, but they'd have no money to improve the offense.

 

There's also of course the risk that Harden either gets hurt next year or becomes even more average than he has been this year. He's not exactly the most stable pitcher in the world.

 

The reward is of course either Harden accepts and becomes dominant again over 150 innings or more which means that the offense might not have to improve as much, or that he declines the offer and the Cubs pick up the 2 draft picks.

 

I believe unless his medicals are worse than I think that Harden will decline arbitration and go out to free agency. So I would definitely offer arbitration and pick up the 2 picks. But if it becomes more likely that he'll accept (if other teams are truly scared of him), it becomes a much riskier decision with how much money the Cubs will have available this offseason and how much of a risk he is as a pitcher.