2009 Regular Season - Week 1 - Bears vs Pack - 9/13 7pm NBC

[David]

So either the Packers sack Cutler in the end zone, or they get two 2pt conversions for the hell of it.

[woodchip2153]

So either the Packers sack Cutler in the end zone, or they get two 2pt conversions for the hell of it.

 

or two touchdowns and 3 field goals.

[David]

So either the Packers sack Cutler in the end zone, or they get two 2pt conversions for the hell of it.

 

or two touchdowns and 3 field goals.

 

 

Nah, no chance. Their holder is hurt and the backup is terrible.

[David]

I'm obviously kidding and overlooked that very obvious possibility.

[Banedon]

Peter King on this game:

 

For all the pregame hubbub about the quarterbacks, I say the biggest factor in this game is the Packers front in the new 3-4 scheme -- specifically 900 pounds of the three rotating ends on early downs, Culllen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly and B.J. Raji. I think the Packers will chase Jay Cutler all over Lambeau, too.

 

Prediction: Green Bay Packers 23, Chicago Bears 16

 

Nevermind that BJ Raji is unlikely to play.

[David]

Odd considering he picks the Bears in the division and in a playoff matchup against them.

 

 

And yea, 2TE is a great match for the 3-4... especially a 3-4 that is just learning the system.

[jersey cubs fan]

Odd considering he picks the Bears in the division and in a playoff matchup against them.

 

 

And yea, 2TE is a great match for the 3-4... especially a 3-4 that is just learning the system.

 

Not that odd that you'd pick the home team in an opening day game among two teams you consider more or less equals.

[Soul]

I'm obviously kidding and overlooked that very obvious possibility.

 

In that case I predict 24-22 Bears, with the Packers getting a meaningless safety just for the heck of it 8-)

[UMFan83]

The Sports Guy picked the Bears to finish 10-6 and win a Wild Card spot, and beating the Seahawks (4 seed) and Saints (2 seed) on the road before losing to the Packers (1 seed) in the NFC Title game. The Packers go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. If I were a Packer fan, I'd hate all the hype my team was getting. Especially a team who hasn't proved anything, and the only thing that most people are going on is their preseason performance. Not saying the Packers won't be good, but c'mon, the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason last year and their starters were a big part of that....

[Banedon]

The Sports Guy picked the Bears to finish 10-6 and win a Wild Card spot, and beating the Seahawks (4 seed) and Saints (2 seed) on the road before losing to the Packers (1 seed) in the NFC Title game. The Packers go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. If I were a Packer fan, I'd hate all the hype my team was getting. Especially a team who hasn't proved anything, and the only thing that most people are going on is their preseason performance. Not saying the Packers won't be good, but c'mon, the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason last year and their starters were a big part of that....

 

Yeah, the Packers hype level is far, far too high. That's ok though...3 more days to keep building it up.

[bukie]

FO's 2009 NFL projections for DVOA

 

The Bears are still projected to have a below average offense, but...

[UMFan83]

FO's 2009 NFL projections for DVOA

 

The Bears are still projected to have a below average offense, but...

 

Wow...also look at their playoff odds:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/playoff-odds/2008/dvoa-playoff-odds-report

 

The link has 2008 in it, but it's clearly the 2009 odds.

 

According to them, the Bears have a:

-79.5% chance of making the playoffs (which is the highest in the NFC)

-55.5% chance of winning the division

-40.7% chance of getting a first round bye

-37.1% chance of getting to the conference championship game

-23.3% chance of winning the conference championship and a Super Bowl appearance (1/4 odds wow)

-11.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl

 

I'll take those odds.

[Banedon]

The #2 ranked ST...ok. I buy that. Although Cleveland has the top ranked ST?

 

And then the Bears as the #2 defense? That's really optimistic.

[bukie]

FO's 2009 NFL projections for DVOA

 

The Bears are still projected to have a below average offense, but...

 

Wow...also look at their playoff odds:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/playoff-odds/2008/dvoa-playoff-odds-report

 

The link has 2008 in it, but it's clearly the 2009 odds.

 

According to them, the Bears have a:

-79.5% chance of making the playoffs (which is the highest in the NFC)

-55.5% chance of winning the division

-40.7% chance of getting a first round bye

-37.1% chance of getting to the conference championship game

-23.3% chance of winning the conference championship and a Super Bowl appearance (1/4 odds wow)

-11.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl

 

I'll take those odds.

Yeah, if you look at the projections, they're the only NFC team in the top 7, and the clear favorite (especially if the Williams Wall misses 4 games) as the only team projected with more than 10 wins. 13 of the 16 NFC teams are projected between 6 and 10 wins, with only the Bears, 49ers and Cardinals outside that spectrum.

[bukie]

The #2 ranked ST...ok. I buy that. Although Cleveland has the top ranked ST?

 

And then the Bears as the #2 defense? That's really optimistic.

The Bears have always had a stellar ST during the Smith era. During 2006 and 2007, when Hester was crazy with the return TDs, they were so far and away the best ST squad that FO's prior position of ST success being largely luck was rescinded.

[Banedon]

The #2 ranked ST...ok. I buy that. Although Cleveland has the top ranked ST?

 

And then the Bears as the #2 defense? That's really optimistic.

The Bears have always had a stellar ST during the Smith era. During 2006 and 2007, when Hester was crazy with the return TDs, they were so far and away the best ST squad that FO's prior position of ST success being largely luck was rescinded.

 

Agreed. Just not sure why Cleveland got ST love, and why they are so confident in the Bears D.

[bukie]

Agreed. Just not sure why Cleveland got ST love, and why they are so confident in the Bears D.

Not only that, look how far their projection is from the rest of the league (for both D and ST).

[dew1679666265]

The #2 ranked ST...ok. I buy that. Although Cleveland has the top ranked ST?

 

And then the Bears as the #2 defense? That's really optimistic.

 

I kind of question those projections. The Titans having a top 5 offense and a 32nd ranked special teams, the Steelers having an average defense (13) and the Ravens with a 29th ranked offense are all really odd projections.

 

Though if they're right about the Titans there (#5 offense and #6 defense), I'll be plenty happy.

[Banedon]

A lot of it is that DVOA, especially before the games have been played, weighs previous seasons heavily. Probably why GB is so low and our D is so high.

[apete6]

I did my projections and have the Bears losing the first 3 games but then rebounding to finish 10-6. Figure that if they win 1 of the first 3, then lose to someone randomly bad later to balance it out. Starting 0-3 has mental consequences that could lead the season down a bad path despite all of the talent. Go Bears!

[bukie]

I kind of question those projections. The Titans having a top 5 offense and a 32nd ranked special teams, the Steelers having an average defense (13) and the Ravens with a 29th ranked offense are all really odd projections.

 

Though if they're right about the Titans there (#5 offense and #6 defense), I'll be plenty happy.

Actually, one of the FO guys responded directly to that question:

 

Have you seen Craig Hentrich kick lately? Have you seen them coverage? Have you seen the returners the past 6-8 years other than Carr and Pacman, neither of whom is on the team this season? Decent backup LBs are normally the mainstay of your special teams, and their LB backups are Keglar, Allred, and McRath, all of whom are young. I don't really think they'll end up #32, but if I had to guess I'd say they end up in the bottom quarter of the league, and, well, somebody has to be #32 in the preseason projections.

 

I'll also point out that Bironas, despite a strong leg, has never really had a down year of the sort all PK's have, and has missed FGs he normally makes in both playoff games, probably his two biggest/most valuable FG misses as a Titan.

[Flames24Rulz]

The Sports Guy picked the Bears to finish 10-6 and win a Wild Card spot, and beating the Seahawks (4 seed) and Saints (2 seed) on the road before losing to the Packers (1 seed) in the NFC Title game. The Packers go on to beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl. If I were a Packer fan, I'd hate all the hype my team was getting. Especially a team who hasn't proved anything, and the only thing that most people are going on is their preseason performance. Not saying the Packers won't be good, but c'mon, the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason last year and their starters were a big part of that....

 

I don't hate it, but it does make me a little uneasy especially with a young team. I hope they don't get too full of themselves. I don't think that's going to happen though because this is a make or break year for McCarthy.

[David]

Kiper's thoughts...

 

 

I like the Packers. The Packers and the Bears, that's the game of the week, really. That's the best game, opening week. Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers and that new look defense. Jay Cutler's first game. I think Chicago has a chance to go deep into the playoffs. I think both of these teams are Super Bowl contenders. I like the Bears more than the Packers, but it doesn't matter how the first game goes. It won't tell you where the teams will be in January. Cutler's still new to this program. The defense has to be significantly better than last year. I think the Bears midseason are going to be rolling. They'll get momentum. I think they win the division with Green Bay second.

[David]

Funny thing is, Kiper was really down on Cutler in the 06 draft, IIRC.

[Banedon]

Funny thing is, Kiper was really down on Cutler in the 06 draft, IIRC.

 

I don't have insider access, but his 06 draft article is here:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/insider/columns/story?columnist=kiper_jr_mel&id=2428772&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft06%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dkiper_jr_mel%26id%3d2428772