Who should the Cubs protect for the Rule 5 Draft?

[toonsterwu]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in.

 

But it's not really a good idea to have 4 catchers on the 40 man roster (Soto, Clevenger, Castillo and Robinson; Clevenger and Castillo should be saved over Robinson and by next season, you'd assume Clevenger could provide exactly what Robinson).

 

ugh, 4 catchers on the 40 reminds me of a couple years ago when we had 4 (actually, didn't we carry 5 on the 40 for a brief period)? Heck, I don't even remember who it was that was added to take it that high. Just avoid at all costs that many catchers on a 40. Just bad.

[toonsterwu]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in.

 

btw, Robinson's defense is supposed to be solid. Not as good as say, the reports on Castillo this year, but probably a tinge better than Clevenger (not sure why I keep saying tinge these days).

[toonsterwu]

Maestri doesn't have fringe average stuff. He has a plus slider and this year he's been routinely 94-96. That's the same velocity as Parker, though Parker has better movement on the FB.

 

Really? He's been that high this year? Last I checked, I thought he was in his usual low 90's area. I still prefer keeping Parker over Maestri.

[Guest]

Maestri doesn't have fringe average stuff. He has a plus slider and this year he's been routinely 94-96. That's the same velocity as Parker, though Parker has better movement on the FB.

 

Really? He's been that high this year? Last I checked, I thought he was in his usual low 90's area. I still prefer keeping Parker over Maestri.

 

I've seen two independent reports that he's now routinely hitting 94-95 mph in his relief outings when in years past, he'd top out at 95 and work consistently 88-92.

[toonsterwu]

Hmm ... that's interesting ... the last time I checked up on Maestri beyond boxscores was early, so maybe he's heated up as summer has progressed. Actually, if he's really zipping in the mid-90's fairly consistently, I'd have to rethink Maestri was Parker. Parker's FB moves better, but Maestri's slider is better than Parker's. Is Parker's control/attack method enough to compensate? Gut feeling is yes right now, but it'd very close.

[Vanilla Ice]

I want Maestri to do well so that we can have an Italian on the Cubs

[Little Slide Rooter]

Why wouldn't Marcos Mateo be on the 40-man next year? You can't possibly be guaranteeing he's traded in the offseason.

 

I sort of hope Mateo gets kept around. I think his stuff plays better for the pen, as the development on the 3rd pitch just hasn't happened by some accounts.

 

Hes 25 and hasnt been above AA. Hes a nice guy to keep around, but if you need that ope spot on the 40 man, hes one of those guys you can part with.

[Guest]

Why wouldn't Marcos Mateo be on the 40-man next year? You can't possibly be guaranteeing he's traded in the offseason.

 

I sort of hope Mateo gets kept around. I think his stuff plays better for the pen, as the development on the 3rd pitch just hasn't happened by some accounts.

 

Hes 25 and hasnt been above AA. Hes a nice guy to keep around, but if you need that ope spot on the 40 man, hes one of those guys you can part with.

 

But there are a few open spots. I don't see too many guys forcing him off the 40-man this offseason.

[Wrigley Rat]

Maestri doesn't have fringe average stuff. He has a plus slider and this year he's been routinely 94-96. That's the same velocity as Parker, though Parker has better movement on the FB.

 

Really? He's been that high this year? Last I checked, I thought he was in his usual low 90's area. I still prefer keeping Parker over Maestri.

 

I've seen two independent reports that he's now routinely hitting 94-95 mph in his relief outings when in years past, he'd top out at 95 and work consistently 88-92.

I didn't know that - haven't read that anywhere. That's very good news and makes me think a lot harder about protecting him then. I'm very surprised he wasn't given a longer look at AAA.

 

The thing is, there are spots available for all of these guys, but adding 6-10 players to the 40-man is traditionally considered excessive. Most would not be chosen in the Rule V Draft and it starts their option clocks ticking.

 

Watching the Cubs carry a Rule V pick this year makes me think that more teams should be doing the same. It was very easy to stash him in the back of the bullpen, have him pitch mop-up innings, and then DL him until September 1st or longer. Next year, he will get some time in AA or AAA and can be treated as any other minor leaguer (who happens to be on the 40-man roster). Every team should do that every year unless there are no players deserving of a roster spot. I say look for the kid with the best stuff who is still down in low A ball and draft him. You might screw him up, but he might turn out to be a gem. Low risk ($50,000) - high reward (Johan Santana).

[Wrigley Rat]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in.

 

But it's not really a good idea to have 4 catchers on the 40 man roster (Soto, Clevenger, Castillo and Robinson; Clevenger and Castillo should be saved over Robinson and by next season, you'd assume Clevenger could provide exactly what Robinson).

I actually think 4 catchers on the roster is ideal if two are on on the 25-man roster, one is waiting in AAA for an injury, and one is a prospect who is not ready yet. For me, that is Soto and a backup (either Hill or Robinson or a free agent), Clevenger (ready for an injury), and Castillo (not ready yet). I would not protect five - I would try to trade one of the minor league catchers at that point.

[Wrigley Rat]

I'd imagine Chris Robinson is added to the 40 man for september and probably DFA'd shortly after the season, a la Casey McGehee last year.

Possible, but I think they would have already rostered him since they've been without a backup catcher for a month if they planned on doing that in September anyway. I think the McGehee situation was a mistake that Hendry regrets (not a huge deal, but we have needed a RH 3B all year).

 

I imagine that the Cubs are going to let this year play out, not roster Robinson, hope he gets ignored in the Rule V Draft (which is very probable), and then use him as a fall-back option if they don't sign a veteran backup catcher for cheap or if that catcher goes down with an injury during the season. Our system will be losing Mark Johnson (AAA - DL), Robinson Chirinos (minor league free agent unless he gets protected/invited to spring training), and Mark Reed is running out of time (he's hitting below .200 at AA). It'll be tough to re-stock it with catchers better than Robinson, Clevenger, and Castillo.

 

2010:

Iowa: Clevenger & Robinson (or Free Agent)

Tennessee: Castillo & Reed (or Free Agent)

Daytona: Flores & Brenly

Peoria: Matt Williams & Richard Jones (& Mario Mercedes if not released)

Boise: Matt Cerda, Sergio Burruel, & either Jose Guevara or Alvaro Sosa

Edited August 3, 2009 by Wrigley Rat

[SouthSideRyan]

Most teams carry 3 catchers in September, unless they acquire another backup, somebody's getting rostered.

[wvcbxl]

Rostering Gaub is a no-brainer to me; if they roster Colvin it's because they still don't want to admit his pick (at that draft spot) was a mistake.

I also think they'll protect Papelbon, Parker and one of Clevenger or Castillo (probably the latter)

 

For some reason, I don't see the Cubs rostering Maestri. I'm a fan of Alessandro, but the Cubs probably think he won't get picked anyway.

[biittner77]

When it comes to the rule 5 draft, don't teams get some sort of protection against losing multiple players?

 

It seems like the trend lately is for teams to take hard throwing pitchers in the rule 5 like the Cubs did with everyone's favorite whipping boy David Patton. Thus Maestri is much more likely to be selected than Papelbon. In fact, if his last name was smith I wonder if anyone would even notice his existence as he's never really put up the kind of numbers that suggest he's a player to watch.

 

nit pick: could we use the word filter to change rule v to rule 5 like when the words [expletive] would auto change to Rusch?

[Wrigley Rat]

nit pick: could we use the word filter to change rule v to rule 5 like when the words [expletive] would auto change to Rusch?

I could have just typed in "Rule 5" when I created the thread, but I didn't - sorry! I agree though that Rule 5 probably makes more sense to use in a forum. Oh well.

[toonsterwu]

When it comes to the rule 5 draft, don't teams get some sort of protection against losing multiple players?

 

It seems like the trend lately is for teams to take hard throwing pitchers in the rule 5 like the Cubs did with everyone's favorite whipping boy David Patton. Thus Maestri is much more likely to be selected than Papelbon. In fact, if his last name was smith I wonder if anyone would even notice his existence as he's never really put up the kind of numbers that suggest he's a player to watch.

 

nit pick: could we use the word filter to change rule v to rule 5 like when the words [expletive] would auto change to Rusch?

 

That certainly is a fair point to make. Teams are trying to cut costs in some ways, and it does seem that the guys with the best chance of sticking from a Rule 5 pick (makes sense) are middle relief types, guys with a potential plus pitch.

 

Btw, I don't think Papelbon is a player to watch, relative to the spectrum of prospects, but I believe Papelbon is a guy that could fill a role with the Cubs. That said, there's Gaub/Lambert as well (I know Lambert's been inconsistent, but I still believe in his ability to become a LOOGY), along with some other arms (Ruhlman, Sasser, and so forth), so while I'd like to see Papelbon stick, I won't be upset if he's gone.

[Little Slide Rooter]

At this point, you really have to hang on to Gaub and Colvin, no question. Id really rather not let Castillo go either.

[toonsterwu]

Another Colvin late season push plus his "status" probably means he does get protected. Wonder who gets left out, as someone's going to get left out. Of the top names being discussed, I think a lot of them get plucked. The two with the least chance of getting plucked might be Clevenger/Papelbon, and I can envision a scenario where a team wants a lefty and gambles on Jeremy, or a team is looking for a young backup catcher. I can see a bad team plucking Clevenger/Castillo and hoping to develop them in the bigs.

[biittner77]

Another Colvin late season push plus his "status" probably means he does get protected. Wonder who gets left out, as someone's going to get left out. Of the top names being discussed, I think a lot of them get plucked. The two with the least chance of getting plucked might be Clevenger/Papelbon, and I can envision a scenario where a team wants a lefty and gambles on Jeremy, or a team is looking for a young backup catcher. I can see a bad team plucking Clevenger/Castillo and hoping to develop them in the bigs.

 

Castillo hasn't hit this year and projects as a back up anyway. Probably better to protect Robinson and Clevenger and takes their chances with Castillo not hitting enough even as a back up catcher.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Another Colvin late season push plus his "status" probably means he does get protected. Wonder who gets left out, as someone's going to get left out. Of the top names being discussed, I think a lot of them get plucked. The two with the least chance of getting plucked might be Clevenger/Papelbon, and I can envision a scenario where a team wants a lefty and gambles on Jeremy, or a team is looking for a young backup catcher. I can see a bad team plucking Clevenger/Castillo and hoping to develop them in the bigs.

 

Papelbon is going to be 27 next season and has spent limited time past AA. We'll probably keep Grabow, and Gaub, Lambert, and Russell all seem to have passed him up as far as left handed relievers go in the organization, and they're all younger so if someone really wants Papelbon, let them have him. Its probably in his best interest anyway. If he does well, more power to him, but I cant see him making it very far before ending up back here.

[craig]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I haven't been tracking with this thread, or with the overall roster. So I'm probably rehashing or talking stupid.

 

But I'd say:

Gaub, Colvin, Parker Maestri Clevenger Castillo are the six to consider.

 

Not sure they'll put all those guys on, and it wouldn't bother me if they didn't.

 

In my experience, the most likely to go are pitchers, because a pitcher with good stuff who can improve a little bit ha the best chance of being able to get hidden or to justify big-league time.

 

Colvin is a favorite whipping boy, and many in the thread have wanted to dismiss him, and it's been suggested that he'll be rostered for political/face-saving rather than baseball reasons.

 

But the guy is slugging over .500 in AA at age 23 (at the moment), is hitting .295 at the moment, and has a K-rate <18% at AA, has a solid K/HR rate of 43/11, has an .835 OPS, and plays a pretty good RF.

 

Most likely it's just a brief tease, and he won't sustain his current hotness or his overall AA numbers, much less continue to get better.

 

But optimist that I am, I'm hoping that his overall AA numbers this year are not only sustainable, but that his recent hotness is more indicative of what he can do, and that at his age he still has improvement left.

 

Optimist that I am, I also wonder whether he may not be approaching the point in his career where he kind of understands what he is as a hitter and settles into a balance, a compromise, an equilibrium.

 

From this hopeful view, he hasn't been at equilibrium before because he was either coming back from the severe head collision, or coming back from the surgery, or playing last year with a shoulder that needed surgery, or trying to make adjustments so as to take more pitches and more walks (first half last year, first month this year), or trying to make counteradjustments to reduce his K's, etc.. I think between health issues and continual efforts to be counterbalancing some problem (too many K's, too few walks, etc.), he's never really settled into what works best for him.

 

It's possible that he's kind of reaching the point for the first time where he's healthy and he's neither overswinging so badly that he's K'ing at all kinds of junk, nor taking so many pitches and cutting down on his swing so severely that he has no power.

[Guest]

Colvin is a favorite whipping boy, and many in the thread have wanted to dismiss him, and it's been suggested that he'll be rostered for political/face-saving rather than baseball reasons.

 

But the guy is slugging over .500 in AA at age 23 (at the moment), is hitting .295 at the moment, and has a K-rate <18% at AA, has a solid K/HR rate of 43/11, has an .835 OPS, and plays a pretty good RF.

 

Most likely it's just a brief tease, and he won't sustain his current hotness or his overall AA numbers, much less continue to get better.

 

But optimist that I am, I'm hoping that his overall AA numbers this year are not only sustainable, but that his recent hotness is more indicative of what he can do, and that at his age he still has improvement left.

 

Optimist that I am, I also wonder whether he may not be approaching the point in his career where he kind of understands what he is as a hitter and settles into a balance, a compromise, an equilibrium.

 

From this hopeful view, he hasn't been at equilibrium before because he was either coming back from the severe head collision, or coming back from the surgery, or playing last year with a shoulder that needed surgery, or trying to make adjustments so as to take more pitches and more walks (first half last year, first month this year), or trying to make counteradjustments to reduce his K's, etc.. I think between health issues and continual efforts to be counterbalancing some problem (too many K's, too few walks, etc.), he's never really settled into what works best for him.

 

It's possible that he's kind of reaching the point for the first time where he's healthy and he's neither overswinging so badly that he's K'ing at all kinds of junk, nor taking so many pitches and cutting down on his swing so severely that he has no power.

 

To be fair, I said I wouldn't protect Colvin before his ridiculous hot streak (back when he was hitting .230 and OBPing .260). I'd be much more inclined to protect him now (I know, I shouldn't be swayed by one hot month).

[jersey cubs fan]

To be fair, I said I wouldn't protect Colvin before his ridiculous hot streak (back when he was hitting .230 and OBPing .260). I'd be much more inclined to protect him now (I know, I shouldn't be swayed by one hot month).

 

Ideally no, but when talking about young guys with limited playing time under their belt and a decision that has to be made sometimes after just 3 years, it's not horrible to be swayed by his last month before that decision has to be made.

[Little Slide Rooter]

To be fair, I said I wouldn't protect Colvin before his ridiculous hot streak (back when he was hitting .230 and OBPing .260). I'd be much more inclined to protect him now (I know, I shouldn't be swayed by one hot month).

 

Ideally no, but when talking about young guys with limited playing time under their belt and a decision that has to be made sometimes after just 3 years, it's not horrible to be swayed by his last month before that decision has to be made.

 

Yeah, but hes also a former top 20 pick who came off of major surgery, so it would be hard to just let him go at this point.

[Illini Iceman]

Another Colvin late season push plus his "status" probably means he does get protected. Wonder who gets left out, as someone's going to get left out. Of the top names being discussed, I think a lot of them get plucked. The two with the least chance of getting plucked might be Clevenger/Papelbon, and I can envision a scenario where a team wants a lefty and gambles on Jeremy, or a team is looking for a young backup catcher. I can see a bad team plucking Clevenger/Castillo and hoping to develop them in the bigs.

 

So as of last year the Cubs had supposedly one of the worst farm systems in baseball but now they are in jeopardy of a lot of their players getting picked in the rule 5 draft? Seems to me that people here may be way overestimating the amount of value other teams will put on these mid level prospects.