Who should the Cubs protect for the Rule 5 Draft?

[Wrigley Rat]

According to Arizona Phil, the following players are eligible to be selected in this winter's Rule V Draft. Who should be added to the 40-man roster?

 

James Adduci, OF

Todd Blackford, RHP

Alberto Cabrera, RHP

Matt Camp, IF-OF

Russ Canzler, 1B

Marco Carrillo, RHP

Julio Castillo, RHP

Welington Castillo, C

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

Tyler Colvin, OF

Rafael Dolis, RHP

Arturo Florentino, RHP

John Gaub, LHP

Robert Hernandez, RHP

Dylan Johnston, RHP (ex-OF)

Blake Lalli, C-1B

Josh Lansford, RHP (ex-3B)

Alessandro Maestri, RHP

J. R. Mathes, LHP

Mario Mercedes, C

Matt Matulia, INF

Jonathan Mota, IF-OF

Billy Muldowney, RHP

Jake Muyco, RHP

Dionis Nunez, RHP

Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

Blake Parker, RHP

Andres Quezada, RHP (ex-OF)

Mark Reed, C

Gregory Reinhard, RHP

Chris Robinson, C

Jayson Ruhlman, LHP

Tomas Sanchez, RHP

Miguel Sierra, RHP

Alvaro Sosa, C

[CUBZ99]

gaub and parker, that is a pretty poor list of players, not much to worry about.

 

And Colvin he has been hot lately and you never know if he will put it together.

Edited August 2, 2009 by CUBZ99

[Vanilla Ice]

gaub and parker, that is a pretty poor list of players, not much to worry about.

Castillo, Colvin, Papelbon, Robinson or Clevenger should be protected off the top of my head. I haven't seen their stats in a little while though. I might be missing somebody or adding somebody that doesn't deserve it, though.

[Guest]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

[Wrigley Rat]

I would make the following moves after the season:

 

Release:

- Jeff Baker (Out of options for 2010)

- Bobby Scales

- Koyie Hill (Maybe re-sign him later if necessary)

- Jason Waddell

- Neal Cotts

- Aaron Miles (the Cubs need to pay for his 2010 salary)

 

Let them become free agents:

- Chad Fox

- Kevin Gregg

- Rich Harden

- Reed Johnson

 

Offer arbitration (they stay on the 40-man roster):

- John Grabow

- Mike Fontenot (will probably qualify for arbitration as a “Super Two”)

- Angel Guzman

- Aaron Heilman

- Carlos Marmol

- Sean Marshall

- Ryan Theriot

 

Add to the 40-man roster:

- John Gaub, LHP

- Blake Parker, RHP

- Welington Castillo, C

- Steve Clevenger, C-1B

- Chris Robinson, C

- Jayson Ruhlman, LHP

 

Send to the Arizona Fall League & offer a spring training invitation (decide afterwords whether to add them to the 40-man roster or not):

- Brad Snyder, OF (minor league free agent)

- Nate Spears, INF (minor league free agent)

- Matt Camp, IF-OF

- Tyler Colvin, OF

- James Adduci, OF

- Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

 

This is what I imagine my 40-man roster to look like prior to the Rule V Draft (38 players):

Pitchers

Mitch Atkins

Justin Berg

Ryan Dempster

*John Gaub

*Tom Gorzelanny

*John Grabow

Angel Guzman

Aaron Heilman

*Ted Lilly

Carlos Marmol

*Sean Marshall

Marcos Mateo

Blake Parker

David Patton

*Jayson Ruhlman

Jeff Samardzija

Jeff Stevens

Randy Wells

Carlos Zambrano

 

Catchers

Welington Castillo

*Steve Clevenger

Chris Robinson

Geovany Soto

 

Infielders

Andres Blanco (until they sign a different backup SS)

*Mike Fontenot

Jake Fox

*Micah Hoffpauir

Derrek Lee

Aramis Ramirez

*Nate Spears

Ryan Theriot

 

Outfielders

*James Adduci

#Milton Bradley

*Tyler Colvin, OF

*Kosuke Fukudome

*Sam Fuld

*Brad Snyder

Alfonso Soriano

 

Players I would try to trade prior to the Rule V Draft to free up a few spots for free agents (some are contracts I want to move):

Mitch Atkins

Justin Berg

Aaron Heilman

Marcos Mateo

Jeff Samardzija

*Mike Fontenot

Jake Fox

*Nate Spears

#Milton Bradley

*Tyler Colvin, OF

*Sam Fuld

*Brad Snyder

Alfonso Soriano

[Guest]

Send to the Arizona Fall League & offer a spring training invitation (decide afterwords whether to add them to the 40-man roster or not):

- Brad Snyder, OF (minor league free agent)

- Nate Spears, INF (minor league free agent)

- Matt Camp, IF-OF

- Tyler Colvin, OF

- James Adduci, OF

- Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

 

You need to send 4 pitchers and 3 position players to the AFL.

 

If I had to guess -

 

LHP Jeremy Papelbon

RHP Blake Parker

LHP JR Mathes

RHP Alex Maestri

2B Tony Thomas

OF Jim Adduci

3B Josh Vitters

[Wrigley Rat]

Send to the Arizona Fall League & offer a spring training invitation (decide afterwords whether to add them to the 40-man roster or not):

- Brad Snyder, OF (minor league free agent)

- Nate Spears, INF (minor league free agent)

- Matt Camp, IF-OF

- Tyler Colvin, OF

- James Adduci, OF

- Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

 

You need to send 4 pitchers and 3 position players to the AFL.

 

If I had to guess -

 

LHP Jeremy Papelbon

RHP Blake Parker

LHP JR Mathes

RHP Alex Maestri

2B Tony Thomas

OF Jim Adduci

3B Josh Vitters

I forgot about that - thanks! Is Josh Vitters the one player who is at a low level that teams can send? I forget the exact rule, but I think it's an A-ball player of some sort.

 

I think I would replace Parker and Mathes with two of Cashner, Schlitter, and Lambert. The other choices work for me.

[Guest]

Send to the Arizona Fall League & offer a spring training invitation (decide afterwords whether to add them to the 40-man roster or not):

- Brad Snyder, OF (minor league free agent)

- Nate Spears, INF (minor league free agent)

- Matt Camp, IF-OF

- Tyler Colvin, OF

- James Adduci, OF

- Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

 

You need to send 4 pitchers and 3 position players to the AFL.

 

If I had to guess -

 

LHP Jeremy Papelbon

RHP Blake Parker

LHP JR Mathes

RHP Alex Maestri

2B Tony Thomas

OF Jim Adduci

3B Josh Vitters

I forgot about that - thanks! Is Josh Vitters the one player who is at a low level that teams can send? I forget the exact rule, but I think it's an A-ball player of some sort.

 

I think I would replace Parker and Mathes with two of Cashner, Schlitter, and Lambert. The other choices work for me.

 

Yeah, you can send 1 player from A-ball.

 

The Cubs normally send guys who they need to make 40-man decisions on which is why I picked those 4 pitchers plus Adduci. It probably makes sense to see Chris Robinson in there too for that reason.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Id definitely protect Gaub, Parker, Clevenger, and Wellington Castillo. As for Colvin Id wait and see what he does the remainder of the year and decide then.

[toonsterwu]

For me, the guys I'd try to protect are

 

Welington Castillo, C

Steve Clevenger, C-1B

John Gaub, LHP

Alessandro Maestri, RHP

Jeremy Papelbon, LHP

Blake Parker, RHP

 

That's already too much. From the remaining list, I think we'll lose a couple guys this offseason, but protecting 6 more is probably unlikely. Order of preference for those 6 would probably be

 

1. Welington Castillo - Still a nice property to have.

2. John Gaub - Potentially more than a LOOGY.

3. Blake Parker - Gut instinct says to put him ahead of Gaub, but my head says lefty value first.

4. Alessandro Maestri - Mike Wuertz-lite could get snatched if he's not protected.

5. Jeremy Papelbon - I want to find a way to keep him around. I think he could fill a Sean Marshall-ish, jack of all trades lefty role.

6. Steve Clevenger - Make him the backup backstop. I wouldn't mind. That said, I think Koyie will get that job again next year, and I'm fine with that.

[toonsterwu]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

[Guest]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

[UK1679666180]

If I was to rank them:

 

1)Clevenger

2)Gaub

3)Maestri

4)Parker

5)Colvin

 

I'm not high on Papelbon nor have I been high on Castillo.

[Wrigley Rat]

All this love for Alex Maestri?

 

His fastball went from 87-90 mph when he signed to 90-94 when he came out of the bullpen in 2007, but it dropped back down to the upper 80's last year. His slider, which is one of the best in the system and devastates right handers, also wasn't as sharp. Maestri has the potential for an average changeup, and he needs an offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. He's athletic and repeats his delivery well, allowing him to throw strikes." - Baseball America, 2/09

Wiki

 

Current Stats:

3-1, 3.15 ERA, 39 G, 65.2 IP, 54 H, 24 R, 23 ER, 5 HR, 36 BB, 57 SO, 7 HBP, 12 WP

1.371 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.8 SO/9, 1.58 SO/BB

- 24 years old at AA

- Less than a strikeout per inning pitched

- High WHIP

- Stuff is fringe average

- Wild: 36 BB, 7 HBP, 12 WP in 65.2 IP

- Right-handed

- Bad pedigree (not a high draft pick or a high signing bonus)

- Had shoulder tendinitis that kept him out the last 2 months of 2008 (could recur)

 

I don't think I would protect him on my 40-man, but if there were a bunch of slots available, maybe.

[toonsterwu]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

Just to be clear, I'm not high on Papelbon in regards to what he might be, but rather, that he's an upper level guy that could fill a key role. I see Grabow being gone next year, and there's a chance Marshall gets a rotation look again. If that happens, we'll need a lefty, and Papelbon is up there, along with Gaub and Lambert, who I think a lot of people have fallen asleep on (granted, no relevancy to this thread).

[toonsterwu]

All this love for Alex Maestri?

 

His fastball went from 87-90 mph when he signed to 90-94 when he came out of the bullpen in 2007, but it dropped back down to the upper 80's last year. His slider, which is one of the best in the system and devastates right handers, also wasn't as sharp. Maestri has the potential for an average changeup, and he needs an offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. He's athletic and repeats his delivery well, allowing him to throw strikes." - Baseball America, 2/09

Wiki

 

Current Stats:

3-1, 3.15 ERA, 39 G, 65.2 IP, 54 H, 24 R, 23 ER, 5 HR, 36 BB, 57 SO, 7 HBP, 12 WP

1.371 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.8 SO/9, 1.58 SO/BB

- 24 years old at AA

- Less than a strikeout per inning pitched

- High WHIP

- Stuff is fringe average

- Wild: 36 BB, 7 HBP, 12 WP in 65.2 IP

- Right-handed

- Bad pedigree (not a high draft pick or a high signing bonus)

- Had shoulder tendinitis that kept him out the last 2 months of 2008 (could recur)

 

I don't think I would protect him on my 40-man, but if there were a bunch of slots available, maybe.

 

For me, it's upper level arm with some potential usefulness so if we can, we should keep him around. But Parker, by most accounts, has a more complete arsenal and better juice on his fastball, so he'd go ahead for me. Maestri is basically Wuertz-lite, a good guy to have, and a guy you try to protect if you can, but put it this way, for me, Castillo/Gaub/Parker are the three I'd focus on (Castillo because of his overall value - improved glove work and his bat ran into some bad luck (statistically) early, and has heated up of late, Gaub/Parker because of their potential usefulness to our squad in the near future).

[Guest]

Maestri doesn't have fringe average stuff. He has a plus slider and this year he's been routinely 94-96. That's the same velocity as Parker, though Parker has better movement on the FB.

[Little Slide Rooter]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in.

[Guest]

In order:

 

1. Steve Clevenger

2. Welington Castillo

3. John Gaub

4. Blake Parker

5. Alex Maestri

 

Honestly, I'd rather protect Rafael Dolis than Tyler Colvin. I'd also try to trade Chris Robinson this offseason rather than lose him for nothing.

 

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

 

I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more.

 

I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are.

 

I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in.

 

But it's not really a good idea to have 4 catchers on the 40 man roster (Soto, Clevenger, Castillo and Robinson; Clevenger and Castillo should be saved over Robinson and by next season, you'd assume Clevenger could provide exactly what Robinson).

[Little Slide Rooter]

* 60 Mitch Atkins

* 64 Justin Berg

* 48 Neal Cotts

46 Ryan Dempster

* 44 Chad Fox

* -- Tom Gorzelanny

43 John Grabow

63 Kevin Gregg

37 Angel Guzman

40 Rich Harden

47 Aaron Heilman

* 30 Ted Lilly

49 Carlos Marmol

45 Sean Marshall

* 62 Marcos Mateo

* 54 David Patton

29 Jeff Samardzija R

52 Jeff Stevens

* 43 Jason Waddell

36 Randy Wells

38 Carlos Zambrano

Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB

55 Koyie Hill

* 18 Geovany Soto

Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB

28 Jeff Baker

13 Andres Blanco

17 Mike Fontenot

5 Jake Fox

6 Micah Hoffpauir

25 Derrek Lee

* 7 Aaron Miles

16 Aramis Ramirez

* 24 Bobby Scales

2 Ryan Theriot

Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB

21 Milton Bradley

1 Kosuke Fukudome

27 Sam Fuld

* 9 Reed Johnson

12 Alfonso Soriano

 

Above is the current 40 man. The names in bold I can pretty much guarantee arent on it next year for 1 reason or another. Others, like Gregg and Harden are questionable. I figure that of the 9 bolded, 4 of them could be filled with Parker, Gaub, Colvin, and 1 or 2 more.

[Guest]

Why wouldn't Marcos Mateo be on the 40-man next year? You can't possibly be guaranteeing he's traded in the offseason.

[Guest]

If I was to rank them:

 

1)Clevenger

2)Gaub

3)Maestri

4)Parker

5)Colvin

 

I'm not high on Papelbon nor have I been high on Castillo.

 

Would you really protect Colvin over Castillo?

[UK1679666180]

Yes...

 

I'll admit that I've never been a Castillo guy based prim. on his Peoria days. To me, he looked sloppy behind the plate with sloppy footwork, good arm strength. He has some power, but I don't think he'll be able to hit well enough to say he projects as a starting C.

 

His ceiling is that of a poor man's Damian Miller, IMO.

 

Colvin is likely going to end up as a 4th OF'er, capable of playing all 3 OF positions (corner OF playing CF when he does have to play CF).

 

With Clevenger, Soto, and Hill or whomever is the back-up, I think that is enough Cs on the 40 man as you already mentioned.

 

We'll see what happens with Reed Johnson (personally that salary should be used elsewhere) and with only 5 OF'ers on the 40 man, that spot would be better being guaranteed for Colvin despite the limited ceiling and the supposed lack of opposition salavating over the poss. of him being exposed to Rule V.

[Rob]

I'd imagine Chris Robinson is added to the 40 man for september and probably DFA'd shortly after the season, a la Casey McGehee last year.

[toonsterwu]

Why wouldn't Marcos Mateo be on the 40-man next year? You can't possibly be guaranteeing he's traded in the offseason.

 

I sort of hope Mateo gets kept around. I think his stuff plays better for the pen, as the development on the 3rd pitch just hasn't happened by some accounts.