Jay Bruce with Broken Right Wrist

[E.J.]

Reds outfielder Jay Bruce broke his write wrist sliding for a ball tonight, and is heading back to Cincinnati to be examined according to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. The Reds were looking to add a bat before the injury, so it stands to reason that they'd ramp up those efforts now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/odss-ends-bruce-ozzie-.html

[rocket]

He kind of sucks anyways.

[UMFan83]

He kind of sucks anyways.

 

Yeah they were talking about sending him down to the minors anyways. This just spares them the trouble of sending down their heavily hyped former top prospect.

[imb]

what was his deal anyway? great-ish power, decent enough walk rate... he was just hitting .208 for some reason. Not even a ridiculous amount of Ks.

[Guest]

what was his deal anyway? great-ish power, decent enough walk rate... he was just hitting .208 for some reason. Not even a ridiculous amount of Ks.

 

That .201 BABIP certainly isn't helping him too much. I'm not exactly sure how to figure out his numbers if his BABIP was close to or at .300 but I'd assume he'd be OPSing over .800 (he's at .727 right now) if he was getting a little luckier.

[XZero771679666304]

Bruce hasn't been what many expected so far, but I'm far from ready to start throwing dirt on his coffin.

[TruffleShuffle]

what was his deal anyway? great-ish power, decent enough walk rate... he was just hitting .208 for some reason. Not even a ridiculous amount of Ks.

 

That .201 BABIP certainly isn't helping him too much. I'm not exactly sure how to figure out his numbers if his BABIP was close to or at .300 but I'd assume he'd be OPSing over .800 (he's at .727 right now) if he was getting a little luckier.

 

.300 would be too high, he's hitting a lot of fly balls this year and not enough line drives, but .201 is pretty unlucky too. he also doesn't hit breaking pitches well.

[Guest]

It's the Dusty affect.

[cl smooth]

i was at the game last night. he slid for the ball and rolled his wrist, which looked nasty on the jumbotron when they showed the replay. everyone in the stadium made an UGH noise when they showed it. would've been a helluva catch if he held on.

 

aside: citifield is really nice ballpark. reminds me of miller park without the roof.

[Guest]

what was his deal anyway? great-ish power, decent enough walk rate... he was just hitting .208 for some reason. Not even a ridiculous amount of Ks.

 

That .201 BABIP certainly isn't helping him too much. I'm not exactly sure how to figure out his numbers if his BABIP was close to or at .300 but I'd assume he'd be OPSing over .800 (he's at .727 right now) if he was getting a little luckier.

 

.300 would be too high, he's hitting a lot of fly balls this year and not enough line drives, but .201 is pretty unlucky too. he also doesn't hit breaking pitches well.

 

I just threw that number out there because it's around the average. My quick calculations (which may be off a bit).

 

.250 BABIP: .808 OPS

.275 BABIP: .847 OPS

.300 BABIP: .895 OPS

[rocket]

i'm certainly no expert, but i get the "has a lot of raw tools but is easily exposed by major league pitching" vibe from him.

[shnsajax]

Milton Bradley for Jay Bruce. He doesn't even have to pass the medical examination.

[Northsider]

Milton Bradley for Jay Bruce. He doesn't even have to pass the medical examination.

 

Not Bradley, Soriano. Bradley clogs the basepaths more.

[DiamondMind]

He's got the same issue as Soriano, or a few other examples. He can't hit breaking stuff. He gets behind in the count, and the AB is basically over. Add to that pitchers adjusting to him, and you have the current Jay Bruce. I guarantee an obnoxious amount of his HR's were in context where it didn't really affect the outcome of the game (please spare me the sabr on that comment, we all know it's true).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

He's got the same issue as Soriano, or a few other examples. He can't hit breaking stuff. He gets behind in the count, and the AB is basically over. Add to that pitchers adjusting to him, and you have the current Jay Bruce. I guarantee an obnoxious amount of his HR's were in context where it didn't really affect the outcome of the game (please spare me the sabr on that comment, we all know it's true).

Jay Bruce career: .235 .301 .448

National league average: .258 .331 .406

Jay Bruce with two strikes: .170 .228 .378

National league average: .183 257 .275

Jay Bruce after 0-1 count: .207 .250 .401

National league average: .229 .273 .347

Jay Bruce after 1-2 count: .157 .164 .296

National league average: .165 .172 .246

 

If anything, he holds up *better* when behind in the count than the average national leaguer. He's closer to league average in OBP and further above it in SLG in those situations.

 

Percentage of career home runs in one-run games or tied: 48.7%

National league average: 49.7%

 

"Don't give me the SABR stuff" always seems to turn out to be code for "I'm completely, wildly wrong and this post is pure fail, but please don't call me on it."

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bruce does have a disproportionately small number of home runs in high leverage situations.

[DiamondMind]

 

"Don't give me the SABR stuff" always seems to turn out to be code for "I'm completely, wildly wrong and this post is pure fail, but please don't call me on it."

 

To clarify, when I said that, it meant please dont be a raging elitist dbag and waste my time with out of context stats, but you felt the need to do it anyway. Grats on that.

[SouthSideRyan]

You said Bruce gets behind in the count and can't hit. He showed stats of Bruce hitting while behind in the count compared to league average.

 

How is that out of context?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

"Don't give me the SABR stuff" always seems to turn out to be code for "I'm completely, wildly wrong and this post is pure fail, but please don't call me on it."

 

To clarify, when I said that, it meant please dont be a raging elitist dbag and waste my time with out of context stats, but you felt the need to do it anyway. Grats on that.

 

What exactly is out of context about his ability to hit behind in the count, when your assertion was that he can't hit when behind in the count?

[TruffleShuffle]

"out of context" is also code for "I'm completely, wildly wrong and this post is pure fail, but please don't call me on it."