Revised Cubs Top 10

[Guest]

Bruce Miles' top 10 prospect list:

 

Bruce Miles[/url]"]1. Starlin Castro, SS

2. Josh Vitters, 3B

3. Andrew Cashner, P

4. Chris Carpenter, P

5. Brett Jackson, CF

6. Hak-Ju Lee (SS at Boise)

7. Logan Watkins (Lee's DP partner at Boise)

8. Casey Coleman, P

9. Ryan Flaherty, 2B

10. Tyler Colvin, OF

 

That's a quickie list. Our friend-of-the-court mlp likes DJ LeMahieu (IF) and Ryan Searle, a pitcher out of Australia. Others to keep an eye on are closer Blake Parker at Iowa, catcher Steve Clevenger at Iowa, Jay Jackson, two of the DeRosa trade pitchers, John Gaub and Chris Archer, and outfielder Kyler Burke. Justin Berg and Jeff Stevens, both of whom are up now, could be serviceable in the majors, as could Caridad. Interestingly, the Cubs seem to rate Gaub and Archer higher than Stevens even though Stevens was closer to the majors than were Gaub and Archer.

 

I'd like to see Tim Wilken given a chance here. His picks are moving up rapidly through the system, and he's drafted guys who could change positions, such as Clevenger (infielder to catcher) and Josh Lansford, who has gone from infielder to pitcher.

 

Jay Jackson is the glaring omission, in my opinion.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

[toonsterwu]

I respect Bruce, but to leave Jay Jackson off the board is ... well, I just don't think that's a good list due to the Jackson omission. Arguably our top pitching prospect, to leave him off the boards is ... stunning to say the least.

[SouthSideRyan]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

 

thanks, somehow i read right over that.

[Guest]

Love the shoutout to Mark Peel, though. :D

[Guest]

Heh, I noticed that too. He's been posting from time to time on Bruce's blog's comment section.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Bruce Miles' top 10 prospect list:

 

Bruce Miles[/url]"]1. Starlin Castro, SS

2. Josh Vitters, 3B

3. Andrew Cashner, P

4. Chris Carpenter, P

5. Brett Jackson, CF

6. Hak-Ju Lee (SS at Boise)

7. Logan Watkins (Lee's DP partner at Boise)

8. Casey Coleman, P

9. Ryan Flaherty, 2B

10. Tyler Colvin, OF

 

That's a quickie list. Our friend-of-the-court mlp likes DJ LeMahieu (IF) and Ryan Searle, a pitcher out of Australia. Others to keep an eye on are closer Blake Parker at Iowa, catcher Steve Clevenger at Iowa, Jay Jackson, two of the DeRosa trade pitchers, John Gaub and Chris Archer, and outfielder Kyler Burke. Justin Berg and Jeff Stevens, both of whom are up now, could be serviceable in the majors, as could Caridad. Interestingly, the Cubs seem to rate Gaub and Archer higher than Stevens even though Stevens was closer to the majors than were Gaub and Archer.

 

I'd like to see Tim Wilken given a chance here. His picks are moving up rapidly through the system, and he's drafted guys who could change positions, such as Clevenger (infielder to catcher) and Josh Lansford, who has gone from infielder to pitcher.

 

Jay Jackson is the glaring omission, in my opinion.

 

Maybe it means that the Cubs *gasp* have a fairly deep farm system. I too, however am puzzled to se both Carpenter and Coleman ahead of Jackson.

[toonsterwu]

Bruce Miles' top 10 prospect list:

 

Bruce Miles[/url]"]1. Starlin Castro, SS

2. Josh Vitters, 3B

3. Andrew Cashner, P

4. Chris Carpenter, P

5. Brett Jackson, CF

6. Hak-Ju Lee (SS at Boise)

7. Logan Watkins (Lee's DP partner at Boise)

8. Casey Coleman, P

9. Ryan Flaherty, 2B

10. Tyler Colvin, OF

 

That's a quickie list. Our friend-of-the-court mlp likes DJ LeMahieu (IF) and Ryan Searle, a pitcher out of Australia. Others to keep an eye on are closer Blake Parker at Iowa, catcher Steve Clevenger at Iowa, Jay Jackson, two of the DeRosa trade pitchers, John Gaub and Chris Archer, and outfielder Kyler Burke. Justin Berg and Jeff Stevens, both of whom are up now, could be serviceable in the majors, as could Caridad. Interestingly, the Cubs seem to rate Gaub and Archer higher than Stevens even though Stevens was closer to the majors than were Gaub and Archer.

 

I'd like to see Tim Wilken given a chance here. His picks are moving up rapidly through the system, and he's drafted guys who could change positions, such as Clevenger (infielder to catcher) and Josh Lansford, who has gone from infielder to pitcher.

 

Jay Jackson is the glaring omission, in my opinion.

 

Maybe it means that the Cubs *gasp* have a fairly deep farm system. I too, however am puzzled to se both Carpenter and Coleman ahead of Jackson.

 

Much as I am a big Jackson fan, I think you could make a case for Carpenter going ahead if you buy Chris staying healthy. He's had a strong year and has an excellent arsenal to work with, and both have some command questions. I'd rank Jay higher, but Chris going ahead isn't that surprising, and I expect several lists may have that.

[davell]

I think we have 3 locks at this point for the BA top 100 in Vitters, Castro, and Cashner. I think Vitters will be in the top 40 or so, Castro will be top 50 and Cashner will be top 80. I had been thinking Jay Jackson was definitely getting in, but the demotion(even as well as he pitched) could hurt him. I figure him, Carpenter, and Lee are all top 150 anyway. And if we get a 4th guy in the top 100, I'm thinking it's going to be Brett Jackson.

 

My guesses at the BA Cubs Top 10

 

1 Vitters

2 Castro

3 Cashner

4 B Jackson

5 Lee

6 J Jackson

7 Carpenter

8 Burke

9 Colvin

10 Flaherty

[Serge]

I'd probably have to go with something like this:

 

1. Josh Vitters

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Starlin Castro

4. Jay Jackson

5. Kyler Burke

6. Brett Jackson

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Chris Carpenter

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Dae Eun Rhee

 

I love Castro, but I just can't put him above Cashner or Vitters til I see more power.

[Outshined_One]

I'd probably have to go with something like this:

 

1. Josh Vitters

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Starlin Castro

4. Jay Jackson

5. Kyler Burke

6. Brett Jackson

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Chris Carpenter

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Dae Eun Rhee

 

I love Castro, but I just can't put him above Cashner or Vitters til I see more power.

 

Welcome!

 

I'm curious why you have Burke over Jackson. That's not something I've seen a whole lot of.

[Serge]

I'd probably have to go with something like this:

 

1. Josh Vitters

2. Andrew Cashner

3. Starlin Castro

4. Jay Jackson

5. Kyler Burke

6. Brett Jackson

7. Hak Ju Lee

8. Chris Carpenter

9. Ryan Flaherty

10. Dae Eun Rhee

 

I love Castro, but I just can't put him above Cashner or Vitters til I see more power.

 

Welcome!

 

I'm curious why you have Burke over Jackson. That's not something I've seen a whole lot of.

 

Thanks

 

As for Burke over Jackson, I figure they're about a wash tools-wise. Burke's got more power and Jackson's got more speed. But I would put Burke a tick higher because of the quantum leap forward he took with his K and BB rates. He always had contact issues but a good eye, I imagine he fixed something in his swing that greatly cut down on the swings and misses. And if Burke keeps his K's down, look out. On the flip side, Jackson still struck out a little bit more than I'd like. Not enough that I worry about him, but enough that I feel alright putting Burke ahead of him.

[toonsterwu]

I posted a quickie top 20 over on Miles blog - still tweaking it -

 

1. Starlin Castro, B+/B. I'm not to keen on making this move up, but at the end of the day, we're talking about a potential All-Star shortstop who people expect will develop some power as he matures. Add in that most expect his defense to be good, along with his performance this year after being pushed hard, and I just gave him the edge in the end. The other option was Vitters, but if we're talking about both guys in terms of potential, I'll take my potential AS shortstop over my potential AS third baseman, particularly when one is a level higher. So, why am I not too keen on making this move? It's not that I don't buy Castro - I buy him plenty. It's that there's a lot of physical maturation left, and we've got to see how he adjusts. That said, it sure feels like the Cubs expect a lot out of him ... and soon. I wouldn't be surprised if he's being loosely penciled in as the starting shortstop in 2011 ... perhaps the first year post-Lou. I think there's an outside shot of being a top 30 prospect on some lists, and I feel comfortable that he will be in the top 60.

 

2. Josh Vitters, B+/B. I like him. I can defend him. I find it ridiculous how people ride the highs and lows of a minor league season so much (I am also certainly guilty of that). Vitters had a hot streak in Peoria earlier this year, and you had some folks (I saw some posts over at Sickels) asking if he was a top 20 prospect. Then, he had a slump before the promotion. He struggled after getting promoted, but injuries were a factor, and yet, a lot of people seem to want to dump on him right now. Look, he wasn't as good as his hot streak, and maybe he isn't an off the charts prospect that excels right away when he moves up. But he's still a dang good prospect. Do I have my concerns? Without a doubt. I've never been a gung ho Josh Vitters was going to be great. But he improved this year and there isn't enough for me to think that he's backslid that much since going to A+. He has to make improvements at the plate, though.

 

3. Jay Jackson, B. I expect the Cubs starting pitchers to be underrated in general. I'd comfortably put Jay Jackson in a top 100 list, but it wouldn't surprise me if he slides out of it. He had a strong stretch in AA before falling off and then getting demoted. The demotion was a shame from a fan's perspective, as we weren't able to know how big the control issues were, as his stuff is too good for A+. He dominated A+, and had a decent outing in Iowa. Considering how fast he's moved, it's been a great pick. His velocity has been reportedly better this year (I know a couple outings, he was able to reach back and hit upper 90's when need be ... even if you think the radar guns are off, certainly possible, that still means he was able to reach back and hit mid-90's). The slider's still there, the change and curve, by most accounts, improved this year. I fully acknowledge that I am a fan, so maybe I have my biases.

 

4. Andrew Cashner, B. I think he's getting a bit of a bad rap, but then again, he has to step it up next year. The peripherals aren't all that great, but then again, he was on a pitch count, and IIRC, he was also limited in what pitches to use at times. With a plus-plus fastball, a potentially plus but inconsistent slider, and a developing change, he's advanced far better than I ever thought he could as a starter. I can certainly buy Cashner over Jackson, as Cashner has the most potential of any arm in our system. I can see Cashner as a starter now, but I can also see him perhaps having a Papelbon like run, being called up for the pen and being too good to move out. Would rather see him stick as a starter, though. I anticipate he'll get on the top 100 list for some, and perhaps fall ahead of Jackson for many.

 

5. Chris Carpenter, B. I was very wary of reading too much into his numbers in Peoria, but he's had a nice run up the ladder and proven that this was a break out season. He's always had the plus stuff, and in that respect, I'm simply happy that he stayed healthy this year. Am I completely sold that he's a starter? Not there yet, but it's been promising. He's sort of flown under the radar a bit for a lot of folks, it seems (non Cubs fans that is). I think he's got a shot at top 100, although top 120 seems more likely.

 

6. Brett Jackson, B/B-. I'm very pleased with the start, but then again, as I've said all along, I would've been troubled if he's struggled. Anyhow, the Brett Jackson's discussion have been done on the board, so I'll leave it alone. I'm excited, and looking forward to see if he can break out in 2010. I think there's a shot at top 100, although top 150 seems more possible, and perhaps top 120.

 

7. Hak-ju Lee, B/B-. Very good start. Some of the numbers have me a bit concerned, but he's the type of guy that can create some opportunities for himself. I wouldn't be surprised if he cracked top 100, particularly on BA.

 

8. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-/C+. He’s back. On ability alone, arguably top 5 in our system. As I've noted, I was going to give him the draft pick nod ranking provided that he was able to throw this year. I mean, we have some background, excellent potential to look forward to.

 

9. Welington Castillo, C+. I'm riding this one, even if I'm alone (and I was bashing him earlier this year a bit). For the most part, it seems like his defense has improved. He had some poor luck with the bat early, but he's had a stellar 2nd half hitting. I still believe he's the most talented catching talent in the entire organization, including bigs, but he has to put it together. Some have compared him to Yadier Molina - I wonder if Bengie might be a better comparison. Does he get a positional bonus? Probably. Still debating sliding him down 1.

 

10. Kyler Burke, C+/B-. Putting it together, or benefit of experience dealing with younger arms? He's had a dominant season, and one could make the case that he goes higher, and I'm very excited. I also buy that he's improved, but how much? I was slow to the wagon on this one, due to his early summer struggles, but he deserves a high ranking, with the performance and tools.

 

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. I've taken my fair share of shots at Colvin, more out of frustration than anything. So, I wanted to be positive. I was always fine with the pick, and it seems quite likely that he'll see some time in the bigs. It's not a bad pick folks, and for those that still lament the pick, it's time to move on. Just wish he could be a bit more consistent.

 

12. Ryan Flaherty, C+. Took me awhile to come around on this one as well. The peripherals were always fine, and if he was able to put together a strong season while fixing his swing and being more sound defenisvely? Sweet. ARL will be oft-mentioned this winter on him, I imagine, but I think that's overhyped in that, if Daytona had been in it, I think both Flaherty and Burke would've moved up the ladder.

 

13. Jeffry Antigua, C+. Maybe a bit of a stretch, but the young lefty has had an excellent season, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs got aggressive with him.

 

14. Ryan Searle, C+. Good sink, particularly for the size, and he's likely to get better.

 

15. DJ LeMahieu, C+/C. Basically, seems like another Ryan Flaherty type, except the power has to develop.

 

16. Casey Coleman, C+/C. Love the gamer in him. Love the pedigree. Love the character. Just wish he had better stuff.

 

17. Chris Archer, C+. I am very pleased, but also taking a wait and see. He's had a solid fast/plus curve combination since HS, and that type of combination should be able to dominate Low A. There's some control issues, perhaps some mechanical work, and overall arsenal development seems needed. That said, seems like his fall back is as a solid pen arm.

 

18. Logan Watkins, C/C+. Former prep QB has shown an advanced approach. I anticipate that he'll be worked with Hak-ju Lee as much as possible.

 

19. Chris Huseby, C/C+. After last year, simply pitching was a plus. Protecting him was the right call. Will he be tried as a starter again? Here's hoping.

 

20. John Gaub, C/C+. I love what he is, but I've got a tough time pushing him higher due to, well, what he is.

 

Still working on grades and working on 11-30.

[Bruce Miles]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

 

No sources. I just kind of compiled it quickly to keep the discussion going. Jackson probably belongs in the top 10, and I did mention him. These things tend to be fluid. Tomorrow, I could have him ranked No. 3. And I just might. Or 4 or 5.

[jersey cubs fan]

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. I've taken my fair share of shots at Colvin, more out of frustration than anything. So, I wanted to be positive. I was always fine with the pick, and it seems quite likely that he'll see some time in the bigs. It's not a bad pick folks, and for those that still lament the pick, it's time to move on. Just wish he could be a bit more consistent.

 

You're trying really hard to talk yourself into that one, and in the end you still have nothing positive to say about the player. ;)

[CUBZ99]

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. I've taken my fair share of shots at Colvin, more out of frustration than anything. So, I wanted to be positive. I was always fine with the pick, and it seems quite likely that he'll see some time in the bigs. It's not a bad pick folks, and for those that still lament the pick, it's time to move on. Just wish he could be a bit more consistent.

 

You're trying really hard to talk yourself into that one, and in the end you still have nothing positive to say about the player. ;)

 

It just goes to show the improvement in the Cubs farm system when you have a 1st round pick from 2006 that puts up .800+OPS in AA (.900+ in the second half) and a 2006 Supp. 1st round pick that puts up a .911 OPS this year and neither guy can crack most people's top 10.

[Guest]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

 

No sources. I just kind of compiled it quickly to keep the discussion going. Jackson probably belongs in the top 10, and I did mention him. These things tend to be fluid. Tomorrow, I could have him ranked No. 3. And I just might. Or 4 or 5.

 

What are your thoughts on Logan Watkins? It's not that I don't like the guy but you just don't see him in most people's top 10 (I would have him in the 15-20 range) since he's so far away and doesn't have as much potential as Hak-Ju Lee.

[Bruce Miles]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

 

No sources. I just kind of compiled it quickly to keep the discussion going. Jackson probably belongs in the top 10, and I did mention him. These things tend to be fluid. Tomorrow, I could have him ranked No. 3. And I just might. Or 4 or 5.

 

What are your thoughts on Logan Watkins? It's not that I don't like the guy but you just don't see him in most people's top 10 (I would have him in the 15-20 range) since he's so far away and doesn't have as much potential as Hak-Ju Lee.

 

I haven't seen him in person. (After having seen Peoria, I think it would be great for every beat writer to see at least a couple of minor league teams each year, but that's a story for another day.) He's a year out of high school, so I think you have to be careful in jumping to conclusions either way. He's not going to hit for much power. Cubs people tell me he's very athletic. His name came up a couple times in my minor league talks with the Cubs when I would ask about guys to keep an eye on. It would be fun to see him play alongside Lee for another year. He could wind up being a utility-type guy or work his way up into a starting job.

[craig]

...

3. Jay Jackson, B. .... His velocity has been reportedly better this year ... that still means he was able to reach back and hit mid-90's). The slider's still there, the change and curve, by most accounts, improved this year. I fully acknowledge that I am a fan, so maybe I have my biases.

 

4. Andrew Cashner, B. I think he's getting a bit of a bad rap, but then again, he has to step it up next year. The peripherals aren't all that great.... With a plus-plus fastball, a potentially plus but inconsistent slider, and a developing change, he's advanced far better than I ever thought he could as a starter. I can certainly buy Cashner over Jackson, as Cashner has the most potential of any arm in our system. .... I anticipate he'll get on the top 100 list for some, and perhaps fall ahead of Jackson for many.....

 

Not to argue the relative merits of these guys. I personally have Cashner ahead of Jackson, but the point of this point isn't to argue the relative merits. [i can certainly track the argument for putting jackson higher: the big-leagues are no different from A+ in that you usually put people away with the breaking ball. It appears that Jackson's slider is superior to any breaking ball that Cashner throws, as is manifested by his much stronger K-rate. it can also be reasoned that he has better control overall. If jackson goes through his career with better control and a much better breaking, he'll end up better. So I'm not really contesting your relative ranking.]

 

My point is that your discussion of these two does not address a most important characteristic for them, or for any pitcher: the propensity to allow HR's. I don't have numbers, but I believe around half (perhaps more) of the run scored in the major leagues score via the HR. And in this regard I think Cashner and Jackson are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Cashner has allowed one HR this season, I believe in his first game; jackson has allowed 11.

 

I understand that HR's come in small quantities, so it's possible that with such small samples that predicting future can be difficult. But it appears that Jackson is unusually HR-vulnerable, and Cashner is unusually HR-resistence.

 

I don't claim to know why. Perhaps it's that Cashner's fastball is not only typically faster but it has more tail to it, so that minor leaguers just can't drive his fastball. Perhaps Jackson's is straighter, or less consistently fast. Very possibly it's a reflection of Jackson's personality, so that he sometimes loses focus and lays in some mashable strikes. More likely it's that that Cashner lives heavily on the fastball, whereas jackson throws a lot more breaking balls. That's great for strikeouts (some of the good ones are unhittable), But if he's throwing 15 more breaking balls per start than Cashner, that's 15 more opportunities to hang one and get it drilled. Scouts talk up the good breaking balls, but the same guy who throws 20 really beautiful deadly breaking pitches in a game can still throw 5 hangers, one or two of which get drilled. From this view, it's well possible that next year, when Carpenter starts the year healthy and is another year older and more accustomed to handling a workload, that they'll push him to throw more breaking balls; if so, perhaps his HR-rate will rise, too. Perhaps it's because jackson is more aggressive and willing to challenge hitters with strikes, and would rather challenge a guy with a fastball down the middle than walk him. That could jive with why his pitch-count-per-inning is better than Cashner's, and his walk-rate lower.

 

But whatever the underlying cause, in general a guy's tendency to allow HR's is somewhat characteristic, and Cashner looks like he's plus-plus in that aspect, whereas jackson looks like he's no better than average and possibly something of a minus in that regard.

 

When I ranked Cashner higher, that was part of my reasoning. (The better fastball, not only velocity-wise but action-wise also factored in, as did personality/character/commitment/coachability factors.)

[Guest]

i'm wondering if he just forgot jay jackson. i haven't seen anyone on this board do a prospect top 10 that doesn't include him.

 

He mentioned him in the others to watch list, so I doubt it. Maybe one of his sources to compile the list is the guy that hates JayJax

 

No sources. I just kind of compiled it quickly to keep the discussion going. Jackson probably belongs in the top 10, and I did mention him. These things tend to be fluid. Tomorrow, I could have him ranked No. 3. And I just might. Or 4 or 5.

 

What are your thoughts on Logan Watkins? It's not that I don't like the guy but you just don't see him in most people's top 10 (I would have him in the 15-20 range) since he's so far away and doesn't have as much potential as Hak-Ju Lee.

 

I haven't seen him in person. (After having seen Peoria, I think it would be great for every beat writer to see at least a couple of minor league teams each year, but that's a story for another day.) He's a year out of high school, so I think you have to be careful in jumping to conclusions either way. He's not going to hit for much power. Cubs people tell me he's very athletic. His name came up a couple times in my minor league talks with the Cubs when I would ask about guys to keep an eye on. It would be fun to see him play alongside Lee for another year. He could wind up being a utility-type guy or work his way up into a starting job.

 

Thanks, Bruce.

 

Setting aside Jay Jackson who I think is a top 5 prospect in this system, I'd prefer a guy like Kyler Burke to Logan Watkins because he's displayed much better power at a higher level while still being good defensively, displaying great patience and being athletic (though not as athletic as Watkins). And while Burke is older, he was still age-appropriate at the MWL.

[Outshined_One]

I really don't get this whole "Kyler Burke is old" thing. He's only about three and a half months older than Brett Jackson.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really don't get this whole "Kyler Burke is old" thing. He's only about three and a half months older than Brett Jackson.

 

Is he downgraded for age or because of how much time he's spent in low A ball?

[Outshined_One]

I really don't get this whole "Kyler Burke is old" thing. He's only about three and a half months older than Brett Jackson.

 

Is he downgraded for age or because of how much time he's spent in low A ball?

 

I'd downgrade him for how much time he's spent in A ball before finally breaking through this season. However, some people seem to be under the impression that Burke is too old for Peoria and they are downgrading him for it.

 

Just a general observation.

[jame.gumb]

However, some people seem to be under the impression that Burke is too old for Peoria and they are downgrading him for it.

 

Here's all that kid did: He goes to class. He's respectful to the media. He's respectful to the PUBLIC! Those who downgrade him obviously don't have a child. You don't downgrade him because he does everything right! That's why I don't read the newspaper. Because it's garbage!