2009 Cubs Picks Thread

[StylesClash]

I don't know how you can't consider Brett Jackson a boom or bust pick. If he figures out his contact issues, he could be Jim Edmonds in his prime. If he can't figure out how to make better contact, he's not going to hack it at AA.

 

But yeah, Tanner Scheppers sure would look a whole lot nicer in the Cubs' system.

 

Tim Wilken compared Jackson to Mark Kotsay. Even if Jackson can manage to stay in Center I still wouldn't be that happy with Kotsay level upside from a first round pick. Reed Johnson's career statistics are remarkably similar to those of Kotsay's, and we picked Johnson up from the scrap heap.

 

Tim Wheeler would have been a much more useful pick. Wheeler's athleticism should easily allow him to stay in Center Field, and he projects to be a quality leadoff man someday (something we've lacked since Kenny Lofton). I'll take a leadoff man over Mark Kotsay part two anyday.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't know how you can't consider Brett Jackson a boom or bust pick. If he figures out his contact issues, he could be Jim Edmonds in his prime. If he can't figure out how to make better contact, he's not going to hack it at AA.

 

But yeah, Tanner Scheppers sure would look a whole lot nicer in the Cubs' system.

 

What makes you think Jackson can develop even mediocre power?

[craig]

I think Jackson is a high-bust risk. So he's anything but a conservative, safe-to-make-majors, low-risk-limited-reward guy. You're drafting in the sandwich area. Back when we were taking Brownlie, Blasko was picked at about the same spot as jackson. I don't see any real change in philosophy.

 

As cal notes, if (huge if) Jackson was able to fix his K problems, and if (huge if) he was to grow into the HR power that Wilken thinks could come, and if (not nearly so huge an if) he can stay as a legit defensive CFer, you'll have a very good CFer. No problem with his ceiling. The problem, if any, is with his odds of getting there.

 

I don't think that Cashner was exactly a safety pick last year either. Plenty of risk that he'd be a wildman, and of course that he'd get injured. And given how much they claimed to like his stuff, if in fact he works out as a starter (at which he's doing well currently, throwing strikes), that could be a huge gamble payoff.

 

I think it's also important to see what else we do with this draft. The last time there were concerns that the Cubs had taken something of a signability guy, it was Colvin.... and then we spent $11 million or whatever on Samardz, and $1+ on Huseby, and $0.4 or whatever on Rundle. So we don't really know where else the money is going to go. Maybe with the sale-that-will-never-happen holding, it will be different. But they've spent quite a bit each of the Wilken drafts. And with a cheap 1st and no sandwich this year, their high-round cost is way down. If they were to want to spend as much as last year or the Vitters year, that could enable quite a bit of superslotting. Raley? Sergio Burruel? Keenyn Walker? Who knows how much they might spend on guys like that.

 

And for that matter, who knows how much they may have already spent to get Mincone, Runey Davis, and Fitzgerald signed, all guys who could have had several years of college leverage.

[Guest]

I don't know how you can't consider Brett Jackson a boom or bust pick. If he figures out his contact issues, he could be Jim Edmonds in his prime. If he can't figure out how to make better contact, he's not going to hack it at AA.

 

But yeah, Tanner Scheppers sure would look a whole lot nicer in the Cubs' system.

 

What makes you think Jackson can develop even mediocre power?

 

Shrug, he supposedly projects to add 15-20 HR power and I saw some scout drop the Edmonds reference.

 

I think he'll flame out more gloriously than Tyler Colvin can ever imagine.

[jersey cubs fan]

Except Cashner and Samardzija are future relievers.

[UK1679666180]

As cal notes, if (huge if) Jackson was able to fix his K problems,

 

Have there been many cases of that actually occuring, where hitters lower their K rate while facing better pitchers?

 

I know it's rare for hitters to dramatically improve BB ratios, but I don't know of many hitters that struggled to make contact and were able to improve on it when it hurt their production in the lower levels.

[CubsWin]

Except Cashner and Samardzija are future relievers.

Maybe. Maybe not. They are both currently starters in the minors and not failing at it. I think any pitcher in the minors has a better shot to make it in the majors as a reliever, so the odds are skewed in that direction, but its far from a certainty at this point.

[craig]

I think I've seen several complaint/concern comments regarding the Jackson pick:

1. Too cheap. Why didn't we spend more on somebody better?

2. Contact/K problem. When does a guy fix contact problem against better pitchers?

3. Power problem. What makes you think Jackson can develop even mediocre power?

4. Too conservative. "I really hope the Cubs aren't taking a Conservative approach...., The boom or bust type players are still the ones I prefer to take early on."

 

Two others that have gotten less buzz here but that I thought were issues:

5. CF issue. Is he (or will he become) too big/too white/too slow to stick in CF?

6. Arm issue. Does he have CF/RF arm, or LF arm?

7. Speed issue. Runs well now, but not base-stealing fast and is he really CF fast?

 

Essentially critics have questioned every aspect of his game: his arm, his defense, his power, his contact hitting, his speed.

 

I didn't like the pick, because all of those scouting concerns worry me, most especially the contact/K problem that Ping mentioned. So don't read what follows as being an apologist or a big believer. But I have to believe that professional scouts who spend their lives scouting prospects have all thought about these issues too. Wilken has 20 scouts. I know it will be funny to say they are all idiots; but I have to think they have some logic in thinking that the risk/reward combo made him a choosable guy. 2nd, it doesn't appear to have been the Cubs only. By BA account, based on their input from scouts of many organizations, jackson was a consensus top-50 guy. So there must be a lot of scouts who think he's got a reasonable-risk chance to be more than a weak-armed low-power K-machine left fielder. I know it's fun and cliche to assume that all scouts, especially Cub scouts, are idiots and don't know anything. But personally I find it helpful to try to understand what the scouts could have seen to have valued him as much as they did, given the plethora of concerns. And I think doing so helps to put some of the comments into context.

 

Of the four concerns listed above, I have no argument with #1. I sure wish we'd have found somebody who was worth a million, and been willing to spend a million to sign that guy. Nor with #2. It's hard to find a K-guy who fixes that against better pitching, and it seems frightfully improbable that Jackson will do that.

 

But #4, the "too conservative", that strikes me as completely inappropriate. That Jackson is way too improbable, way too risky and way too bust-likely, I can relate to that thinking. But the pick is anything but too conservative. It's too boom-or-bust in my book.

 

Some analysis on issues:

2. The K problem. Jackson's sophomore K's were 17%. Scouts have mentioned a loop or hitch or something. Pro scouts spend their lives scouting hitters, and at least some of them apparently believe that Jackson might be able to hit with enough contact to be a top-50 type guy, Wilken included. I assume they've noticed that K-guys don't often change their stripes, yet they valued Jackson anyway. I don't know why, and I don't know that they will be vindicated. But I may be boring and naive enough to think that perhaps that belief is not without some reasonable basis for possibility.

 

3. The HR problem. He hasn't produced many HR's, but a lot of guys add more, and many of the scouts seem to think that's possible. One of the reasons why he scouted as favorably as he did. Sure, they are probably all idiots and we know better. And sure, they may think he has a chance to add HR's but that chance may not be realized. But I don't think it's unrealistic to think that he could add HR output. The Edmonds analogy that some have mentioned.

 

5,6,7: CF/speed/arm. Wilken addressed this pretty explicitly. He believes that he is a good CFer, has the speed and range and instincts to be a good CFer, and has an arm that is strong enough and accurate enough to play in center. (Don't recall whether he thinks it would play in right or not.) I think this is the context for the Kotsay reference. I think Kotsay is the scouting name for the white CFer who is a very good CFer without having olympic speed. I don't think Wilken was really meaning Kotsay the hitter when he used that comparison; I think he was using Kotsay the very excellent center fielder. (I think by most of the good defensive metrics, Kotsay consistently scored near the top.)

 

Sure, it's easy to mock a Kotsay reference: Jackson is a whiffaholic with a low risk of making it, and even if he does his ceiling is Kotsay! Talk about low ceiling! But if the Kotsay is for Jackson's defensive CFer ceiling, that's a very high ceiling. Other comments relate to jackson's offensive ceiling. (Edmonds type comps).

[Guest]

The reason why 15th rounder Cody Shields was on Boise's roster but then got sent to Arizona before he got in a single at bat is because he needs TJS:

 

Panama City News-Herald[/url]"]Cody Shields will wait until 2010 to make his professional debut.

 

The Bay graduate is scheduled next week to undergo Tommy John surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Shields, an outfielder, is expected to be ready for spring training next year. The recovery time for position players after Tommy John surgery is typically six to eight months.

 

Shields was taken in the 15th round by the Chicago Cubs in this year's Major League Baseball Draft. He signed on May 15 and was assigned to Single-A Boise, Idaho. He didn't appear in a game for the Hawks.

 

An MRI earlier this week revealed the damage. Shields had experienced pain in the elbow in the later stages of last season while a senior at Auburn-Montgomery, Ala. Team trainers believed the problem was tendonitis, but the MRI showed the true nature of the injury.

[UK1679666180]

7th rounder Springfield got only $80K. Wow, I'm surprised, that seems low for a HS kid to sign for. I wonder when the last time was that we signed a HS kid for less than 6 figures? .....

 

He was signable from the start, he projects as a utility guy as the main thing that hurts him is his lack of speed.

 

These local news stories don't know much about the ins and outs, so it wouldn't surprise me if a writer didn't really understand how the value was between school and actual signing bonus. Maybe it's $80 in signing and $35 in scholarship to get up near slot, or whatever. Perhaps the kid doesn't get it himself. A major-leaguer wouldn't say he's signed when he hasn't signed and is negotiating his bonus, for example. But whatever.

 

Seems that Wilken talked about his hitting. Guys who can hit, with power, can get opportunities. Sounds like he'll need to hit, and if he doesn't, he won't have speed or defensive greatness to fall back on. But if he hits, anything can happen even if he's slow.

 

I heard today that he signed for 125K not 80K.

[craig]

Thanks, normal slot money makes more sense.

 

Will be interesting to see where they play him. In his signing article, which I thought might reflect some limited discussion with the Cubs, he mentioned 2B/3B, and 2B is general catchall for all the SS's-who-can't-play-SS's that we get. But with Fitzgerald and Watkins, 2B seems somewhat occupied. Will he go to 3rd instead, or straight out to outfield from the start? Or will he just mix-and-match, and share some 2B with Fitz, and play other spots when Fitz is DHing or not playing at all.

 

Fitz may also be a bit of an interesting case. The longer he continues to hit .600, the more I wonder whether we just got lucky, or it's just a temp fluke, or whether he was known to be a prospect but had signability issues, and how high we had to pay to get him. was he a 6-figures guy too, just like Springfield? Good chance; not that many HS/JC guys who sign for less. Was he comparable to Springfield, or did he actually cost more, since Springfield is towards the bottom of the range where HS/JC guys are willing to sign for?

 

Thus far the only scouting on Fitz that I've seen have been comments by his JC coach, and coaches tend to hyperbolize the value of their players since they are comparing them to their level of competition rather than to pro or big-league standard.

[UK1679666180]

2006 report on Fitzgerald from the PG showcase.

 

Derrick (D.J.) Fitzgerald is a 2007 right hand hitting middle infielder from Ocean Lakes HS, residing in Virginia Beach, VA. Fitzgerald has a compact, strong, athletic build on a 6'0" 178 lb. frame. He was ranked #78 among PG National Top 100 position players. Fitzgerald hits from a square stance and employs a quiet hitting approach. He has a quick bat and swings aggressively, but stays in control of that swing. When hitting his best he hits the ball the other way. He is a line drive contact hitter with enough speed to put pressure on the defense. Fitzgerald's swing plane is pretty flat and he is short the ball, while regularly putting together quality, competitive at-bats. He looks to be a solid two-hole type that can drive in some runs. Fitzgerald is capable of playing either middle infield spot but looks more comfortable and polished at 2nd base. His arm rates as solid average in raw arm strength, with a release that works better for him at 2nd. He has enough arm to go across the diamond, but it takes a bit more effort than will play as well when the game moves at higher speeds. He does have enough athleticism to develop a quicker release, keeping shortstop as an option. A good runner, Fitzgerald ran 4.49 home/1st with a 6.83 60 yard time. Like most players, his underway speed is better than his burst out of the box. It is likely that a handful of area scouts will check in on Fitzgerald from time to time this spring, afterall he does play in one of the hotbeds for prospects the last number of years and his a good player. Look for him to play D1 ball and continue to develop into a stronger professional prospect in a few years.

 

It is telling that Fitzgerald attended the AFLAC games which is one of the premier HS events.

 

He committed to GA Southern, but I'm assuming didn't qualify, had a change of heart, or was using it as leverage as far as getting drafted but didn't work out.

[chgojhawk]

Springfield didn't have a great deal of leverage as he wasn't likely to qualify at ISU.

[UK1679666180]

Springfield didn't have a great deal of leverage as he wasn't likely to qualify at ISU.

 

Any JUCO in the country would've loved to have had him.

[Outshined_One]

Considering 46th rounder Glenn Cook started in LF for the AZL Cubs yesterday, I'm going to take a wild guess and say he signed.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't know how you can't consider Brett Jackson a boom or bust pick. If he figures out his contact issues, he could be Jim Edmonds in his prime. If he can't figure out how to make better contact, he's not going to hack it at AA.

 

You can't be boom or bust without any chance of having the boom. There's no way he'll ever be anything like Jim Edmonds in his prime. He might someday be good enough to not hurt you starting in CF. He has nice athletic ability, but that doesn't mean a damn thing. Boom or bust candidates are five tool players with a flaw or two that may be exposed by pros, not a guy with questions about every aspect of his game and a defect in just about every tool. He's not going to hit for average. He's not going to hit for power. It's debatable about whether he can stick in CF.

 

Just having a very high chance of failing doens't mean he's boom or bust.

[Outshined_One]

Article on Jackson

 

Brett Jackson got his level head from his parents, but he relied on cutting-edge Silicon Valley technology to help even out his swing. In January, he began working out with a Force Plate to slow down twitchiness and body movements and bring greater leverage to his swing.

 

"Brett was too quick," explained Phil Wagner, a director at Sparta Performance Science, based in Menlo Park, Calif.

 

"He struggled in creating force more smoothly and needed to learn how to do it in a more lateral direction," Wagner said.

 

The Force Plate technology, originally developed as a laboratory instrument, is installed beneath the floor and can detect how athletes navigate force in their movements.

[Guest]

Per a press release from the Cubs, Robert Wagner (38th rounder, 3B, Panola Junior College, Texas).

[Outshined_One]

BA has Chris Rusin signed.

[Guest]

BA has Chris Rusin signed.

 

So they do. They also have bonus info:

 

4. Chris Rusin: $140,000

5. Wes Darvill: $142,000

7. Blair Springfield: $127,000

8. Robert Whitenack: $125,000

10. Charles Thomas: $60,000

[Outshined_One]

32nd rounder Trey McNutt signed. Link

 

Shelton State coach Bobby Sprowl confirmed that McNutt, a 6-foot-4, 205-pound right-hander, had agreed to an offer from the Cubs, who selected him in the 32nd round of the June amateur draft.

 

'As far as a pro pitcher goes, he's got everything they're looking for,' Sprowl said. 'He's a big, strong kid. His arm works well, and he's got the power stuff. He's got all the attributes. It's just a matter of putting it together consistently.'

 

McNutt pitched 69 1/3 innings as a freshman and posted a 7-2 record. Shelton State won the Alabama Community College Conference title and advanced to the JUCO World Series in Colorado.

 

'It was something we expected, but you never know what's going to happen,' Sprowl said of McNutt's signing. 'Trey was honest about it. I think the Cubs made him a pretty good offer.

[Guest]

Tampa Bay Blogs[/url]"]Former Jefferson standout Chad Taylor has decided to play college baseball at USF instead of signing a pro contract with the Chicago Cubs.

 

Taylor, who was drafted by the Cubs in the 13th round of this month's MLB Draft, said he spoke to the Cubs Wednesday and couldn't come to an agreement with the organization. Taylor said he was asking for more than is usually paid to 13th rounders, which is typically a signing bonus more than $100,000.

 

"It had to pay me enough to get me out of college," Taylor said. "I know I'm going to USF. I think it's in my best interest to go to college. I'm really excited. I can't wait to start school and play at USF."

 

:(

 

Hopefully he isn't enrolled in USF summer school and the Cubs still have a chance.

[Guest]

Austin Kirk made BA's 3rd team HS All-American squad.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/awards/all-america-teams/2009/268473.html

[UK1679666180]

Tampa Bay Blogs[/url]"]Former Jefferson standout Chad Taylor has decided to play college baseball at USF instead of signing a pro contract with the Chicago Cubs.

 

Taylor, who was drafted by the Cubs in the 13th round of this month's MLB Draft, said he spoke to the Cubs Wednesday and couldn't come to an agreement with the organization. Taylor said he was asking for more than is usually paid to 13th rounders, which is typically a signing bonus more than $100,000.

 

"It had to pay me enough to get me out of college," Taylor said. "I know I'm going to USF. I think it's in my best interest to go to college. I'm really excited. I can't wait to start school and play at USF."

 

:(

 

Hopefully he isn't enrolled in USF summer school and the Cubs still have a chance.

 

Their expected signing bonus is way off. 9th round money is around 75K+school. 13th rd. is around 50K + school.

[Outshined_One]

Article on LeMahieu.

 

“If you turn 21 within 40 to 50 days of the draft, you're eligible for it. I made it by a week or two,” said LeMahieu, who must decide between returning to LSU or signing with the Cubs.

 

“Obviously, it's a great opportunity, and my goal is to play in the Major Leagues. I've had a heckuva few years at LSU, and it would be tough to leave, too. Time will tell. It'll be a tough decision.”

 

LeMahieu wouldn't say which way he's leaning, but he's always been a Cubs fan.

 

His dad, Tom, grew up an hour north of Milwaukee and, like his parents, is a lifelong Cubs fan, too.

 

“The first game I went to was a Cubs spring training game,” LeMahieu said. “I went to spring training eight years in a row when I was younger. My grandma still watches every single Cubs game on TV.”