Emerging Prospects & Those Living Up To Their Hype

[CubsWin]

It's still early, but it appears with his recent power explosion (unofficially 3 HRs in his last 3 games, officially 2 in his last 2), Josh Vitters can be put back into the category of those living up to their hype. As can 22-year-old, AA second baseman and third round draft pick, Tony Thomas. Other than those two, no hitter is really capturing my attention after the first month of the season. There are a handful of players who are young for their league that I am hoping are just struggling to adjust to their new levels of competition like Starlin Castro, Brandon Guyer, etc. But that's it.

 

On the mound, I'm officially excited about Jose Ascanio. He has a bit of a history of struggling at a new level and then figuring it out when he repeats it the next year. That seems to be holding true this season. His hits per IP ratio is way down from last year's AAA numbers and his K/BB ratio is way up. Just like he did when he repeated AA in the Braves organization. He is age appropriate for his league and his numbers are call-up worthy. I'd like to see him continue this performance level for a while longer, but I'm definitely checking in every time he pitches. Ryan Searle is the only other pitcher I'm pleased with performance wise right now especially because he is so young for his league. There are several other arms that are worthy of following. Chris Archer, Ryan Buchter and Chris Huseby in Peoria. Rafael Dolis and Andrew Cashner in Daytona, John Gaub and Jay Jackson in Tennessee, and Jeff Samardzija and Jeff Stevens in Iowa.

 

Who is on your radar?

[craig]

Dan McDaniel at Daytona. He's been the biggest positive surprise.

 

And Darwin Barney has been a pleasant surprise. I know he has no power and won't steal. But smart, good defensive SS's who are excellent contact players (he has a very low K-rate, so doesn't need a crazy BABIP to sustain a good BA and OBP) can be useful major leaguers and also useful trade bait.

[RammyFanny]

Yeah, you've got to have McDaniel on there. Young, 6'3, mid 90's FB with a plus curve or slider (i've seen both mentioned but I assume it's one or the other), and a very good sinker. Combine that with his insane numbers so far and he's rocketing into our top 10.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, I agree on McDaniel. I was following his numbers last year as well. Amazing. I've been concerned about his lack of Ks this season at Daytona, but then he put up 9 in 5.2 IP tonight. At least we know he's capable of doing at A+. Now, can he do it more often. His season K rate is still well below 1 per inning while last year is was close to 1.4 per. After tonight, I'm a lot more confident that he can get it up above 1 at the A+ level.

 

And Barney's performance so far this year is definitely worthy of mention. I'm not convinced yet that he will keep it up. His numbers last season were underwhelming. If he had dominated the FSL like McDaniel dominated the NWL, I would be more inclined to believe in him after a great first month. But there are four more to go. I need to see him keep this up a bit longer before I can get excited, but he's certainly worth mentioning.

[biittner77]

Thomas made his 7th error of the season last night. Is there a concern about his ability to stick at 2nd base? Does he have the speed to convert to CF?

[Little Slide Rooter]

It seems that we have a pretty decent crop of pitching prospects, for the first time in a while. It remains to be seen how each will perform once they get promoted to the next level though

 

Iowa

Jose Ascanio

Jeff Stevens

Greg Reinhard

Shark

 

Tennessee

Jay Jackson

John Gaub

Im still up in the air on the 2 Caseys

 

Daytona

Dan McDaniel

Ryan Searle

Andrew Cashner

David Cales

Marcus Mateo

 

Peoria

Chris Carpenter

Chris Archer

Chris Huseby

Ryan Buchter

Mark Perconte

 

The best part is these are actual prospect prospects, not minor leaguers in their late 20's finally finding their way.

[biittner77]

It seems that we have a pretty decent crop of pitching prospects, for the first time in a while. It remains to be seen how each will perform once they get promoted to the next level though

 

Iowa

Jose Ascanio

Jeff Stevens

Greg Reinhard

Shark

 

Tennessee

Jay Jackson

John Gaub

Im still up in the air on the 2 Caseys

 

Daytona

Dan McDaniel

Ryan Searle

Andrew Cashner

David Cales

Marcus Mateo

 

Peoria

Chris Carpenter

Chris Archer

Chris Huseby

Ryan Buchter

Mark Perconte

 

The best part is these are actual prospect prospects, not minor leaguers in their late 20's finally finding their way.

 

I'm hoping we'll be able to add Brian Schlitter to the AA list. He's been pretty good aside from one bad outing.

[craig]

Thomas made his 7th error of the season last night. Is there a concern about his ability to stick at 2nd base? Does he have the speed to convert to CF?

 

Yes, very much.

 

No, no chance.

 

To my understanding, the defensive concerns are at three levels:

1. Seems to be making a number of throwing errors. My friend said he made a totally not-even-close Steve Sax-like throw at a game last week.

 

2. How good is he at actually catching grounders? Not sure if this is as large a concern. But m friend said that an easy grounder went right through his legs last week, the kind of error that you almost never see in the majors.

 

3. My recall is that scouts have said that he is still pretty awkward at turning double plays.

 

In terms of center, he hasn't been scouted as a speedster. He's scouted as a smart baserunner and perhaps a quick starter towards 2B (but a slow starter out of the box). But his straight-line speed isn't scouted as much above average.

 

So my guess is that if he doesn't make it at 2B, he'll go to left like Eric Patterson.

[jersey cubs fan]

In terms of center, he hasn't been scouted as a speedster. He's scouted as a smart baserunner and perhaps a quick starter towards 2B (but a slow starter out of the box). But his straight-line speed isn't scouted as much above average.

 

So my guess is that if he doesn't make it at 2B, he'll go to left like Eric Patterson.

 

How does his speed compare to Fukudome? Obviously you'd prefer a CF with top notch defense, but if he can be adequate, and produce something like an 850 OPS (not sure if he can even do that) in CF, he can be an asset, especially in his low compensation seasons.

[craig]

Last night I mentioned McDaniel and Barney as a couple of guys who have dramatically elevated their status in my view. (I followed them both last year, of course, and I knew the Cubs liked Barney as a Theriot-type defensive-infielder/utility-infielder candidate. And I knew that McDaniel did extremely well at boise.) But I didn't anticipate McDaniel starting, or skipping to A+, or excelling after having done so, or having a very intriguing sinker. And I didn't anticipate Barney cutting his K's down so well and hitting with as much line-drive contact as he's done thus far.

 

One additional guy who has dramatically raised his stock in my view is Chris Carpenter. That's largely because I'd expected so little of him. I knew the hype, that he was big, that on occasion scouts had timed him or projected the chance to throw real fast. But he's old, he's had arm problems, and last year his numbers looked really ugly to me, too few K's to show actual or consistently dynamic stuff, and soooo sooo many walks, lots of hits allowed, etc.. All his numbers last year just smelled like an old and totally wild wildman who's stuff wasn't that great or was special only on rare occasion. But now this year 29K/11hits, that looks like stuff that is electric and hard to hit. There is no sign of current health problem, and the early report that he looked balanced and relatively controlled also helped. His control is still a huge concern: 11 walks/25 innings is lousy. And he's shown that his control can vanishin a heartbeat. So we'll see. But I'm seeing a guy now who seems healthy and strong, and who seems to have stuff that will be hard to hit whether he's in A- or AA. It depends on him. I also see a guy who's had a couple of bad innings, in which many of the walks and much of the damage has come out of the blue; but the vast majority of time he's been under control. (Unlike Veal, for example, who looked out of control even in innings when he didn't actually walk anybody.) Sometimes guys who are on the brink, they are good most of the time, but they still lose it for an inning here or there, with experience they become better able to avoid or limit or self-correct the damage. At which point they can sometimes accelerate very rapidly. (I'm old enough to remember early Maddux; I recall thinking prior to his Cy breakout that he was so good, but that so many times it was a single inning where his control would go and he'd give up most of the damage all at once. Then his Cy year he closed out those problem innings, and it was Cy's and Hall of Fame from there.) I'm not saying Carpenter will ever have enough control to win in the majors; or that his stuff is that good relative to big-leaguers; or that he'll stay healthy. But I'm WAY more optimistic and interested in his chances than I was back in February.

 

One other is Gaub. Every time Hendry makes a trade, he tends to go for some overage A-ball pitcher with supposedly a good arm but bad control, that he or his scouts had liked back when the kid was in college years ago. I was optimistic but not confident that Gaub really had the control or the big-league stuff to be serious, given his 3+ ERA as a 23-year-old in low-A last year. But with 15K/8IP, it's pretty obvious that his stuff is for serious. When he can have his stuff working, AA guys can't touch him any better than the A- kids could, it wasn't a matter of finessing bad A- guys. I'm hoping that the stuff is perhaps even so good that even major-leaguers won't be able to hit it when he's got his good stuff going. So I look for his name in every AA boxscore now. Unfortunately the wild-man question remains pretty big.

[CubsWin]

Starlin Castro has picked it up in the month of May. As of May 9th, he is batting .400/.423/.600 with 2 doubles and a HR over 25 ABs, 4 SB and 0 CS. He's had decent offensive numbers the last two seasons, so maybe April truly was an adjustment period to the new level he is at. After being in the Dominican League in '07 and Mesa in '08, playing ball in the FSL must have been like taking the training wheels off. Let's hope his May continues and this 6'1, 160 lbs. SS puts up another .800+ OPS this time at the A+ level at the tender age of 19.

 

And if he doesn't become a star at the major league level, maybe we can trade this SS to the Phillies for a hall of fame 2B. After all, his middle name is DeJesus. :wink:

[Tyrant]

And if he doesn't become a star at the major league level, maybe we can trade this SS to the Phillies for a hall of fame 2B. After all, his middle name is DeJesus. :wink:

 

Castro for Utley. That was easy.

[UK1679666180]

Thomas made his 7th error of the season last night. Is there a concern about his ability to stick at 2nd base? Does he have the speed to convert to CF?

 

Yes, very much.

 

No, no chance.

 

To my understanding, the defensive concerns are at three levels:

1. Seems to be making a number of throwing errors. My friend said he made a totally not-even-close Steve Sax-like throw at a game last week.

 

2. How good is he at actually catching grounders? Not sure if this is as large a concern. But m friend said that an easy grounder went right through his legs last week, the kind of error that you almost never see in the majors.

 

3. My recall is that scouts have said that he is still pretty awkward at turning double plays.

 

In terms of center, he hasn't been scouted as a speedster. He's scouted as a smart baserunner and perhaps a quick starter towards 2B (but a slow starter out of the box). But his straight-line speed isn't scouted as much above average.

 

So my guess is that if he doesn't make it at 2B, he'll go to left like Eric Patterson.

 

Offensively, he projects better than Todd Walker and probably has better tools defensively as well. I've been a Thomas fan, I just wonder how much time did he really spend on defense at FSU compared to hitting, which took that dramatic jump they year of his draft.

 

I don't think he's Jake Fox as far as a defensive liability at C/3B and will be given the chance to progress up the ladder further at 2B.

[CubsWin]

Well, our just turned 19 year old, 6'1", 160 lbs., shortstop playing in the FSL is hitting .385 in the month of May and .433 over the last ten games. He's slugging .641 in May as well. That is only over the course of 39 ABs, but all I was looking for was evidence that his performance in April (.235/.200/.435) was an aberration driven by the necessary adjustments that come from jumping from the AZL to the FSL.

 

I still haven't seen enough to feel confident that Castro will succeed at the A+ level all year long. He needs to get his walk rate up and keep hitting the ball well for longer than just a 12 game stretch, but at least he's broken out. And 12 games is nothing to sneeze.

 

Ryan Searle's last two starts weren't as impressive as the previous three, but they weren't terrible. And he's still a 19 year old in the FSL with a 2.18 ERA and a WHIP under 1. Hang in there, Ryan.

[THISisTHEyear09]

One other is Gaub. Every time Hendry makes a trade, he tends to go for some overage A-ball pitcher with supposedly a good arm but bad control, that he or his scouts had liked back when the kid was in college years ago. I was optimistic but not confident that Gaub really had the control or the big-league stuff to be serious, given his 3+ ERA as a 23-year-old in low-A last year. But with 15K/8IP, it's pretty obvious that his stuff is for serious. When he can have his stuff working, AA guys can't touch him any better than the A- kids could, it wasn't a matter of finessing bad A- guys. I'm hoping that the stuff is perhaps even so good that even major-leaguers won't be able to hit it when he's got his good stuff going. So I look for his name in every AA boxscore now. Unfortunately the wild-man question remains pretty big.

 

The guys they got for derosa are all emerging prospects. The Chicago Cubs scouts obviously knew more about these players than the public did. This trade will pan out a lot better for the cubs than the indians. I give the Cubs and their scouts a lot of credit for this one

[CubsWin]

Josh Vitters and Tony Thomas continue to impress with the bat big time.

 

The concern about Vitters is his walk rate, but with his ability to hit almost anything, and hit it well, I don't know if he fits into the conventional mold of hitter. If he is unable to hit his way on base in AA and AAA, then he will have to adjust. But for now, I'm not concerned with how rarely he takes a walk. Should I be?

 

Thomas is just simply raking, especially for a 5'10", secondbaseman. As a guy who doesn't turn 23 until mid-July, he's basically age appropriate for his league if not a little ahead of the game. Where he seems behind is defensively. If he doesn't improve, Thomas could wind up as trade bait.

 

Starlin Castro can officially be moved from a player worth watching to one worth getting excited about, as can Chris Huseby and Dan McDaniel on the pitching side of things. They join 19-year-old Ryan Searle in that catagory.

 

Lots of others are worth watching at this point, but those 6 have distinguished themselves with their performance thus far this season and, if they keep it up, are of an age where they can be considered legit prospects.

 

It's still mid-May so a lot can happen, but if those 6 keep up their current level of performance, it would be a huge feather in Wilken's cap and the Cubs system would undoubtedly be ranked higher by the so-called experts next off season. Add in guys like Hak-Ju Lee and Dae-Eun Rhee and the Cubs top ten prospect list might be making a comeback.

 

Your thoughts?

[Ryno is God 23]

Vitters is absolutely crushing the ball right now....I like.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Josh Vitters and Tony Thomas continue to impress with the bat big time.

 

The concern about Vitters is his walk rate, but with his ability to hit almost anything, and hit it well, I don't know if he fits into the conventional mold of hitter. If he is unable to hit his way on base in AA and AAA, then he will have to adjust. But for now, I'm not concerned with how rarely he takes a walk. Should I be?

 

Given everything we know about Vitters, I'm not super worried until he has a low walk rate and shows that he's not able to hit for a very high average at a given level. It'll obviously hinder him from being an elite hitter at the major league level, but if that's who he is, then that's who he is.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Marquez Smith seems to be really getting the hang of AA. After a rocky start, hes hitting .328 and OPSing in the .800s, which could be higher, but his avg. and OPS are the same, meaning he might not be the most patient hitter in the world. Still, at age 24, it could be time to push him to AAA befoe he becomes one of our specialty 26-29 year old AAAA players. Iowa doesnt seem to have a natural third baseman anyway.

[sandbergcubs]

Josh Vitters and Tony Thomas continue to impress with the bat big time.

 

The concern about Vitters is his walk rate, but with his ability to hit almost anything, and hit it well, I don't know if he fits into the conventional mold of hitter. If he is unable to hit his way on base in AA and AAA, then he will have to adjust. But for now, I'm not concerned with how rarely he takes a walk. Should I be?

 

Thomas is just simply raking, especially for a 5'10", secondbaseman. As a guy who doesn't turn 23 until mid-July, he's basically age appropriate for his league if not a little ahead of the game. Where he seems behind is defensively. If he doesn't improve, Thomas could wind up as trade bait.

 

Starlin Castro can officially be moved from a player worth watching to one worth getting excited about, as can Chris Huseby and Dan McDaniel on the pitching side of things. They join 19-year-old Ryan Searle in that catagory.

 

Lots of others are worth watching at this point, but those 6 have distinguished themselves with their performance thus far this season and, if they keep it up, are of an age where they can be considered legit prospects.

 

It's still mid-May so a lot can happen, but if those 6 keep up their current level of performance, it would be a huge feather in Wilken's cap and the Cubs system would undoubtedly be ranked higher by the so-called experts next off season. Add in guys like Hak-Ju Lee and Dae-Eun Rhee and the Cubs top ten prospect list might be making a comeback.

 

Your thoughts?

 

 

Castro is marvellous to watch, honestly alot of errors, but they are usually on the routine plays on the tougher plays he makes them look easy i guess its justt when he has time to think..

 

mcdaniel also is definanlty worth getting excited over, he gets alot of movement and a plus breaking ball. he seems a competitor.

 

vitters well.. what can you say about him, if he improves defensively a little he could stick at 3rd and become very very good..

 

and it will be aweesome to see the new koreans in action, and also see how rhee comes back from his surgery.

 

searles last couple of outings havent been very exciting, but still his Ground ball ratio is ridiculous, which is what they need in wrigley. im sure it would have been tough in that rain tonight..

 

i read that report about searles stuff, and saying it was fringy, i have personally seen him pitch twice, and was wondering what fringy mean? because his 90-93+ fastball seems to have alot of movement and breaking ball is around 80+mph alot of downward break..

 

another one i am impressed with is samson and his 5:1 BB to K ratio.. impressive, all he needs is his BA to go up a little.

 

campana is extrememly fast, does anyone have his times? i roughly used my watch to see he was around the 4 second mark on a base hit

[CubsWin]

Another good/great game for Vitters, Castro and Jay Jackson. The hot streak that Vitters is on is sick. I can't recall seeing anything like this before. Castro is now hitting over .300 on the year and .410 in May with a SLG of .623 this month as well. Jay Jack is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 19 May innings, allowing 17 hits and 5 walks against 23 strikeouts. And that's in AA at 21 years old. These three are definitely living up to the hype right now...

[craig]

Castro is marvellous to watch, honestly alot of errors, but they are usually on the routine plays on the tougher plays he makes them look easy i guess its justt when he has time to think..

 

mcdaniel also is definanlty worth getting excited over, he gets alot of movement and a plus breaking ball. he seems a competitor.

 

...

searles last couple of outings havent been very exciting, but still his Ground ball ratio is ridiculous, which is what they need in wrigley. im sure it would have been tough in that rain tonight..

 

i read that report about searles stuff, and saying it was fringy, i have personally seen him pitch twice, and was wondering what fringy mean? because his 90-93+ fastball seems to have alot of movement and breaking ball is around 80+mph alot of downward break..

 

another one i am impressed with is samson and his 5:1 BB to K ratio.. impressive, all he needs is his BA to go up a little.

 

campana is extrememly fast, does anyone have his times? i roughly used my watch to see he was around the 4 second mark on a base hit

 

Thanks much for your observations about the Daytona kids. sounds like you have seen a lot of action, and it's fantastic to get observations from somebody who has seen them. Again, thanks much, and I hope that you will post what you see and what you think more often.

 

Thanks especially for the Searles report, if he's 90-93+, with the groundball action, that sounds fantastic, and as you say hardly "fringy".

 

What would you say McDaniel is for velocity? Same kind or range, or not quite that fast? And, can you tell whether he's mostly fastball/breaking ball, or have you seen him throw what might be a changeup as well?

 

One of the other pitchers of interest is Dolis. I assume he's got quite a good fastball, an interesting breaking ball, and major control problems. But I've never seen him and I'm kind of just guessing. have you seen him, and does that sound right?

[CubsWin]

At what point do we start considering Josh Harrison a prospect worth talking about? He's slightly over age appropriate for the MWL but only slightly. (He turns 22 in July.) Of course, if he keeps hitting like this (.386/.412/.559), he could be in Daytona by then.

 

Anyone got the scoop on this guy? Why is he hitting like this but no one's talking about him like he can be something? He hit really well last year at Boise (.351/.462/.509 over 144 ABs). Is his defense terrible? He's been moved around the field a lot, but most of games have been as a DH, so that could be it. Do people think he's too short to ever hit for power? Is there some rule says you can't be excited about more than one Josh at the same time? What gives on the other Josh?

[craig]

At what point do we start considering Josh Harrison a prospect worth talking about? He's slightly over age appropriate for the MWL but only slightly. (He turns 22 in July.) Of course, if he keeps hitting like this (.386/.412/.559), he could be in Daytona by then.

 

Anyone got the scoop on this guy? Why is he hitting like this but no one's talking about him like he can be something? He hit really well last year at Boise (.351/.462/.509 over 144 ABs). Is his defense terrible? He's been moved around the field a lot, but most of games have been as a DH, so that could be it. Do people think he's too short to ever hit for power? Is there some rule says you can't be excited about more than one Josh at the same time? What gives on the other Josh?

 

I think he gets limited discussion in part because there isn't a lot to discuss or to project. We know what he can do: he can hit. And we know what he can't do: grow beyond 5'8", hit HR's, steal significant bases in the majors, or play SS. Even his 2B defense seems to be less promising than Lake or Flaherty etc. I'm not sure, but it may also be that his arm may preclude RF and perhaps also CF, I don't know.

 

But it looks like he's probably a 2B/LF type. With his power limitation, it's hard to get fired up about him for LF. That said, hitting is the rarest and most valuable tool, and I am always interested in pure hitters. Guys who can really hit, you can put up with some less-than-gold-glove defense. He's not going to be perfect, but often teams end up choosing between imperfect players, and sometimes the guy who can flat-out hit ends up being the preferred choice.

[Guest]

It seems like the Cubs are already projecting him as a utility guy. If he was sticking at second base, he'd be much more interesting (admittedly, it's tough to get time at second base when you have higher ceiling prospects like Flaherty and Lake getting first dibs on the middle IF positions).

 

I try not to get too excited over a college guy hitting well at low-A. He probably deserves to be promoted to Daytona.